The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment

Transcription

1 The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment James D. Hamilton Jing (Cynthia) Wu Department of Economics UC San Diego Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 1 / 33

2 What more can monetary policy do when: the fed funds rate is 0.18% reserves are over a trillion dollars? Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 2 / 33

3 Policy options 1 Communicate expansionary intentions after escape from the zero lower bound Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 3 / 33

4 Policy options 1 Communicate expansionary intentions after escape from the zero lower bound 2 Purchase assets other than T-bills a. foreign assets b. risky assets c. long-term assets Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 3 / 33

5 Preferred habitat model of Vayanos and Vila Preferred habitat model of Vayanos and Vila preference of some borrowers or lenders for certain maturities arbitrageurs ensure that each risk factor is priced the same across assets Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 4 / 33

6 Preferred habitat model of Vayanos and Vila Preferred habitat model of Vayanos and Vila preference of some borrowers or lenders for certain maturities arbitrageurs ensure that each risk factor is priced the same across assets decreased preference of Treasury to borrow long-term reduced exposure of arbitrageurs to long-term risk factors reduced price of this risk (flatter yield curve) Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 4 / 33

7 Outline 1 Model. 2 Data. 3 Empirical results prior to crisis. 4 Model and empirical results at the ZLB Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 5 / 33

8 Discrete-time version of Vayanos and Vila (2009) Arbitrageurs objective: first-order condition: max E t (r t,t+1 ) (γ/2)var t (r t,t+1 ) y 1t = E t (r n,t,t+1 ) γϑ nt where y 1t = return on riskless asset ϑ nt = (1/2) change in variance from one more unit of asset n Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 6 / 33

9 Discrete-time version of Vayanos and Vila (2009) Arbitrageurs objective: max E t (r t,t+1 ) (γ/2)var t (r t,t+1 ) first-order condition: y 1t = E t (r n,t,t+1 ) γϑ nt where y 1t = return on riskless asset ϑ nt = (1/2) change in variance from one more unit of asset n Rate of return r n,t,t+1 = P n 1,t+1 P nt 1 r t,t+1 = N z nt r n,t,t+1 n=1 Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 6 / 33

10 Discrete-time version of Vayanos and Vila (2009) Suppose that log of bond price is affi ne function of macro factors f t, log P nt = a n + b nf t and factors follow Gaussian VAR(1): f t+1 = c + ρf t + Σu t+1 Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 7 / 33

11 Discrete-time version of Vayanos and Vila (2009) Suppose that log of bond price is affi ne function of macro factors f t, and factors follow Gaussian VAR(1): log P nt = a n + b nf t f t+1 = c + ρf t + Σu t+1 Then variance of return on portfolio is approximately d t ΣΣ d t N d t = z nt b n 1 n=2 and (1/2) derivative of variance with respect to asset n is ϑ nt = b n 1ΣΣ d t Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 7 / 33

12 Discrete-time version of Vayanos and Vila (2009) If preferred-habitat borrowing is also an affi ne function of f t, then in equilibrium, prices of risk are an affi ne function of factors as well, and framework implies a standard affi ne-term-structure model. Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 8 / 33

13 Data Treasury yields (weekly and end-of-month, Jan Aug 2010) Face value of outstanding Treasury debt (1990.M M12) Separate estimates of Fed holdings Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 9 / 33

14 Maturity structure: December 31, 2006 Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 10 / 33

15 Average maturity Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 11 / 33

16 Prior to Crisis Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 12 / 33

17 Setup 3-factor model, estimated weekly Jan July 2007, assuming only that prices of risk are affi ne in the factors Factors f t : level, slope and curvature level = (y 6m + y 2y + y 10y ) /3 slope = y 10y y 6m curvature = y 6m + y 10y 2y 2y Yields measured with error: 3m, 1y, 5y and 30y generates estimates of factor dynamic parameters (c, ρ, Σ), risk-pricing parameters (λ, Λ), and how each maturity loads on factors b n. Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 13 / 33

18 Results Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 14 / 33

19 Preferred habitat Preferred-habitat-implied price of risk Σλ t = γσσ N n=2 z nt b n 1 Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 15 / 33

20 Preferred habitat Preferred-habitat-implied price of risk Σλ t = γσσ N n=2 z nt b n 1 Suppose that: arbitrageurs correspond to entire private sector U.S. Treasury debt is sole asset held by arbitrageurs Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 15 / 33

21 Preferred habitat Preferred-habitat-implied price of risk Σλ t = γσσ N n=2 z nt b n 1 Suppose that: arbitrageurs correspond to entire private sector U.S. Treasury debt is sole asset held by arbitrageurs Then: z nt = share of publicly-held debt represented by maturity n Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 15 / 33

22 Preferred habitat Preferred-habitat-implied price of risk Σλ t = γσσ N n=2 z nt b n 1 Suppose that: arbitrageurs correspond to entire private sector U.S. Treasury debt is sole asset held by arbitrageurs Then: z nt = share of publicly-held debt represented by maturity n q t = 100ΣΣ N n=2 z nt b n 1 Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 15 / 33

23 Excess holding returns Excess holding return e.g. hold 5 year bond over 1 year h 5,1,t = log P 4,t+1 P 5,t y 1,t Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 16 / 33

24 Excess holding returns Excess holding return e.g. hold 5 year bond over 1 year h 5,1,t = log P 4,t+1 P 5,t y 1,t Regression h nkt = c nk + β nk f t + γ nk x t + u nkt. Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 16 / 33

25 Excess holding returns Excess holding return e.g. hold 5 year bond over 1 year h 5,1,t = log P 4,t+1 P 5,t y 1,t Regression h nkt = c nk + β nk f t + γ nk x t + u nkt.. Expectation hypothesis: excess holding returns are unpredictable ATSM: f t contains all the information at t Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 16 / 33

26 Regressors 6m over 3m 1yr over 6m 2y over 1y 5y over 1y 10y over 1y ft (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) f t, zt A (0.020) (0.119) (0.311) (0.728) (0.665) f t, zt L (0.003) (0.008) (0.006) (0.035) (0.196) f t, qt (0.002) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) f t, zt A, zt L, qt (0.000) (0.001) (0.000) (0.002) (0.054) f t : term structure factors zt A : average maturity zt L : fraction of outstanding debt over 10 years q t : Treasury factors Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 17 / 33

27 Endogeneity Goal: if maturities of outstanding debt change, how would yields change? Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 18 / 33

28 Endogeneity Goal: if maturities of outstanding debt change, how would yields change? Conventional regression f t = c + βq t + ε t Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 18 / 33

29 Endogeneity Goal: if maturities of outstanding debt change, how would yields change? Conventional regression f t = c + βq t + ε t Concerns: Is f t responding to q t, or is q t responding to f t? Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 18 / 33

30 Endogeneity Goal: if maturities of outstanding debt change, how would yields change? Conventional regression f t = c + βq t + ε t Concerns: Is f t responding to q t, or is q t responding to f t? Spurious regression Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 18 / 33

31 Yield factor forecasting regressions Our approach: f t+1 = c + ρf t + φq t + ε t+1 Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 19 / 33

32 Yield factor forecasting regressions Our approach: f t+1 = c + ρf t + φq t + ε t+1 Advantages: answers forecasting question of independent interest Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 19 / 33

33 Yield factor forecasting regressions Our approach: f t+1 = c + ρf t + φq t + ε t+1 Advantages: answers forecasting question of independent interest avoids spurious regression problem Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 19 / 33

34 Yield factor forecasting regressions Our approach: f t+1 = c + ρf t + φq t + ε t+1 Advantages: answers forecasting question of independent interest avoids spurious regression problem nonzero φ does not reflect response of q t to f t Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 19 / 33

35 Yield factor forecasting regressions Our approach: f t+1 = c + ρf t + φq t + ε t+1 Advantages: answers forecasting question of independent interest avoids spurious regression problem nonzero φ does not reflect response of q t to f t estimate incremental forecasting contribution of q t beyond that in f t Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 19 / 33

36 Significance of Treasury factors F test that φ = 0 f t+1 = c + ρf t + φq t + ε t+1 F test level (0.023) slope (0.005) curvature (0.049) Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 20 / 33

37 Quantitative illustration Fed sells all Treasury securities < 1 year, and uses proceeds to buy up long-term debt E.g. in Dec. 2006, the effect would be to sell $400B short-term securities and buy all bonds > 10 year Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 21 / 33

38 Quantitative illustration Fed sells all Treasury securities < 1 year, and uses proceeds to buy up long-term debt E.g. in Dec. 2006, the effect would be to sell $400B short-term securities and buy all bonds > 10 year φ i level (0.112) slope (0.116) curvature (0.116) : average change in q t Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 21 / 33

39 Impact on yield curve 1-month ahead Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 22 / 33

40 Financial Crisis and Zero Lower Bound Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 23 / 33

41 Zero Lower Bond Short term yields near zero Longer term yields considerable fluctuation. Explanation: when escape from ZLB (with a probability), interest rates will respond to f t as before Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 24 / 33

42 Parsimonious Model of ZLB Same underlying factors f t same (c, ρ, Σ) f t+1 = c + ρf t + Σu t+1 Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 25 / 33

43 Parsimonious Model of ZLB Same underlying factors f t same (c, ρ, Σ) Once escape from ZLB f t+1 = c + ρf t + Σu t+1 ỹ 1t = a 1 + b 1f t p nt = a n + b nf t a n and b n calculated from the same difference equations Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 25 / 33

44 Parsimonious Model of ZLB At ZLB y 1t = a 1 p nt = a n + b n f t. π Q : probability still at ZLB next period No-arbitrage: Can calculate b n (how bond prices load on factors at ZLB) as functions of b n (how they d load away from the ZLB) along with π Q (probability of remaining at ZLB), ρ (factor dynamics), and Λ (risk parameters). Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 26 / 33

45 Parsimonious Model of ZLB Assume: (c Q, ρ Q, a 1, b 1, Σ) as estimated pre-crisis (a n, b n ) same as before Estimate two new parameters ( a 1, πq ) to describe 2009:M3-2010:M7 data from Y 2t = A 2 + B 2 Y 1t + ε e t Y 1t = 6-month, 2-year, 10-year Y 2t = 3-month, 1-year, 5-year, 30-year A 2, B 2 functions of (cq, ρ Q, a 1, b 1, Σ) and ( a 1, πq ) Estimation method: minimum chi square (Hamilton and Wu, 2010) Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 27 / 33

46 Parameter estimates for ZLB Slightly better fit if allow new value for a 1 after escape from ZLB 5200a1 = (ZLB = 0.07% interest rate) π Q = (ZLB may last 108 weeks) 5200a 1 = 2.19 (compares with 5200a 1 = 4.12 pre-crisis market expects lower post-zlb rates than seen pre-crisis) Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 28 / 33

47 Actual and fitted values Mar Aug Feb Aug 2010 Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 29 / 33

48 Model Fit Contemporaneous R 2 Forecast R 2 restricted unrestricted restricted unrestricted 3m y y y Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 30 / 33

49 Factor Loadings Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 31 / 33

50 One-month-ahead predicted effect of Fed swapping shortfor long-term Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 32 / 33

51 One-month-ahead predicted effect of Fed swapping shortfor long-term Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 32 / 33

52 Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 33 / 33

53 Caveats Caveats The effects come in the model from investors assumption that the changes are permanent Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 33 / 33

54 Caveats Caveats The effects come in the model from investors assumption that the changes are permanent The Treasury is better suited to implement than Fed Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 33 / 33

55 Caveats Caveats The effects come in the model from investors assumption that the changes are permanent The Treasury is better suited to implement than Fed Operation works by transferring risk from government s creditors to the Treasury-Fed Hamilton and Wu (UCSD) ZLB 33 / 33