Fund Quarterly Commentary TD Emerald Low Volatility Global Equity Non-Taxable Investors Pooled Fund Trust Commentary September 30, 2018
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1 Fund Quarterly Commentary TD Emerald Low Volatility Global Equity Non-Taxable Investors Pooled Fund Trust Commentary September 30, 208 Fund Strategy Over the long term, the TD Emerald Low Volatility Global Equity Non-Taxable Investors Pooled Fund Trust (the Fund ) aims to achieve similar returns to benchmark, with less volatility. The Fund is broadly diversified, investing primarily in global equity included in the MSCI World ex-canada Total Return Index ND C$. TD Asset Management Inc. aims to optimize the Fund by overweighting equities that are expected to deliver less volatile returns and by underweighting or excluding equities that are expected to deliver more volatile returns. As a result, the Fund may possess significantly different characteristics than the Index, and exhibit high tracking error compared to the benchmark, even though the standard deviation of return is expected to be less than that of the Index. The Fund is designed for Canadian registered pension plans, qualifying foundations, endowments and charities which are exempt from income tax in Canada and income tax in the U.S. in respect of dividend or interest income in the U.S., who are seeking a broadly diversified portfolio with a better riskadjusted return than the MSCI World ex-canada Total Return Index. Fund Facts Date of Inception April 26, 207 Assets under Management $.243 billion Performance Summary 3 Months YTD Year Since Inception Fund 3.47% 7.53% 4.24% 8.4% Index 3.3% 9.06% 5.33% 9.62% Difference 0.6% -.53% -.09% -.2% As of September 30, 208, returns for periods over one year are annualized. Post-Expense; numbers may not add due to rounding. Inception Date: April 26, 207 Sources: TDAM, MSCI 2 Volatility is standard deviation of monthly returns multiplied by square root of 2. 3 The Sharpe Ratio is a ratio of returns generated by the Fund, over and above the risk-free-rate of return and the total risk associated with it. Portfolio Managers Highlights In the third quarter of 208, global equities continued to grind higher, as corporate profits remained relatively well supported by robust demand and strong pricing power in the U.S. Developed world equities posted an approximate 3.3% return (in Canadian dollar terms), which is higher than the near 2% gain registered in the first half of the year. This gain was mostly in response to a recovery in U.S. and Japanese stocks, while most European equity markets were down over the quarter. Weak natural resource prices hindered the performances of commodity-reliant developed market equities, including those of Canada and Australia. Over the third quarter, the U.S. economy fired on all cylinders, with the unemployment rate sinking to multi-decade lows, the inflation rate hovering around 2% and more signs of wage growth acceleration emerging. Despite escalating trade war rhetoric between the U.S. and China, the renegotiated North American Free Trade Agreement deal between the U.S., Mexico and Canada allowed the U.S. Federal Reserve Board ( Fed ) to remain focused on monetary policy normalization and maintain its course in terms of raising interest rates. This put pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, which spiked to a multiyear high of 3.25%. Meanwhile, Italy s populist government tabled a new budget, which proposed a much higher deficit than was previously agreed upon and approved by the European Commission. Unsurprisingly, Italian government bond yields jumped, adding more pressure on European stocks. Open for Investment Daily Auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
2 Our thesis remains that this economic cycle is getting long in the tooth and global risk assets could weaken, particularly when U.S. equities the last bastion of strength among developed markets come under pressure. This underscores the need to avoid excessive risk-taking. As such, we favour global low-volatility equities over their capitalization-weighted benchmarks. Market Overview Global equities, as measured by the MSCI World (ex-canada) Total Return Index (C$), posted a gain over the third quarter of 208. U.S. equities, as measured by the S&P 500 Total Return Index (C$), rose 5.9% over the quarter. The Fed raised its central interest rate in September, partly in response to low unemployment and wage growth. European gross domestic product ( GDP ) growth advanced during the second quarter, while the unemployment and inflation rates remained fairly stable. The European Central Bank held its interest rate steady at 0.00%. The Bank of England raised its interest rate to 0.75% in August, as inflation rose and GDP grew 0.4% in the second quarter. Japan s GDP rebounded in the second quarter versus the previous quarter, and the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at -0.0%. Strategy Review & Outlook During the third quarter of 208, the TD Emerald Low Volatility Global Equity Non-Taxable Investors Pooled Fund Trust (the Fund ) posted a return of 3.47%, outperforming the benchmark Index by 0.6%. Over the past 2 months, the Fund returned 4.24%, underperforming the Index by.09%. The tables below contain the Fund s performance by Global Industry Classification Standard ( GICS ) sector, country and volatility quintile relative to the Index. The first table contains the Fund s performance by GICS sector relative to the Index. In the third quarter, the Fund underperformed its benchmark in an up market. This is in line with our expectations, since during up markets we expect the Fund to lag the Index return. Sector allocation detracted from the Fund s performance, which was partially offset by relatively strong stock selection. The Fund had a large underweight position in the Information Technology and Health Care sectors, which were the main detractors from performance. An overweight position in the Utilities sector and poor security selection within Utilities also detracted from the Fund s performance. On the other hand, good stock selection within the Financials and Industrials sectors contributed to the Fund s performance. The second table breaks down the Fund s performance by country relative to the Index. From a country perspective, approximately 53% of the Fund was allocated to the U.S. during the quarter. Stock selection in U.S. companies was the main detractor from the Fund s performance, which was partially compensated by stock selection within developed Pacific (ex-japan) markets. The third table examines the Fund s performance by volatility quintile relative to the Index. The Index constituents are divided into five groups based on their return volatility over the last five years. The Fund has a strong preference for stocks with less volatility over those that are more volatile. During the quarter, as the market moved up, the Fund s large exposure to lowervolatility stocks detracted from relative performance. As Portfolio Advisers, we constantly seek to reduce risk as much as practically feasible. This is a dynamic process, as forecasts of volatilities and correlations evolve. As of the end of the third quarter of 208, the Fund hedged approximately 90% of the British pound, euro, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar. During the quarter, currency effects detracted 20 basis points from performance. TD Emerald Low Volatility Global Equity Non-Taxable Investors Pooled Fund Trust Commentary Q
3 Performance by GICS Sector July, 208 to September 30, 208 GICS Sectors Fund Index Fund Index Stock Selection Sector Allocation Currency Effect Communication Services Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Utilities Total TD Emerald Low Volatility Global Equity Non-Taxable Investors Pooled Fund Trust Commentary Q
4 Performance by Country July, 208 to September 30, 208 Region/Country Fund Index Fund Index Stock Selection Sector Allocation Currency Effect Developed Europe Ex UK Developed Pac. Ex Japan Japan United Kingdom United States Total Performance by Volatility Quintile July, 208 to September 30, 208 Volatility Quintile Q5 Most Volatile Fund Index Fund Index Total Q Q Q Q Least Volatile Total TD Emerald Low Volatility Global Equity Non-Taxable Investors Pooled Fund Trust Commentary Q
5 Helping you achieve your most important objectives TDAM is one of Canada s largest investment management firms. TDAM offers a full suite of investment management solutions for corporations, pension funds, endowments, foundations and high net worth individuals. Contact us to find out how TDAM can help you achieve your most important financial objectives. Telephone: Facsimile: inst.info@tdam.com Web: tdaminstitutional.com Sources: TDAM, MSCI, FactSet The information contained herein has been provided by TD Asset Management Inc. and is for information purposes only. The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual s objectives and risk tolerance. All products contain risk. Important information about the pooled fund trusts is contained in their offering circular, which we encourage you to read before investing. Please obtain a copy. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns of the funds including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions. Yields, investment returns and unit values will fluctuate for all funds. All performance data represent past returns and are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Pooled Fund units are not deposits as defined by the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government deposit insurer and are not guaranteed by The Toronto-Dominion Bank. Mutual fund strategies and current holdings are subject to change. TD Emerald Funds are managed by TD Asset Management Inc. Index returns are shown for comparative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and their returns do not include any sales charges or fees as such costs would lower performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Standard deviation is a statistical measure of the range of a fund s performance. When a fund has a high standard deviation, its range of performance has been very wide, indicating that there is a greater potential for volatility than those with low standard deviations. Sharpe Measure is a ratio of returns generated by the fund, over and above risk-free rate of return and the total risk associated with it and can change monthly. A high and positive ratio shows superior performance and a low and negative ratio is an indication of unfavourable performance. Quintile rankings are intended to measure how well a fund has performed compared to other funds in its peer group. Quintile rankings are compiled by ranking all of the funds in a category by return over a given time period. The top performing 20% of funds in the category are assigned a quintile ranking of, the next 20% a 2, etc. Quintile rankings can change over time. Certain statements in this document may contain forward-looking statements ( FLS ) that are predictive in nature and may include words such as expects, anticipates, intends, believes, estimates and similar forward-looking expressions or negative versions thereof. FLS are based on current expectations and projections about future general economic, political and relevant market factors, such as interest and foreign exchange rates, equity and capital markets, the general business environment, assuming no changes to tax or other laws or government regulation or catastrophic events. Expectations and projections about future events are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, which may be unforeseeable. Such expectations and projections may be incorrect in the future. FLS are not guarantees of future performance. Actual events could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any FLS. A number of important factors including those factors set out above can contribute to these digressions. You should avoid placing any reliance on FLS. TD Asset Management Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. The TD logo and other trade-marks are the property of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. (08) TD Emerald Low Volatility Global Equity Non-Taxable Investors Pooled Fund Trust Commentary Q
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