Corporate Presentation

Transcription

1 Corporate Presentation July 25, 2016 zargon.ca

2 Forward Looking-Advisory Forward-Looking Statements - This presentation offers our assessment of Zargon's future plans and operations as at July 25, 2016, and contains forward-looking statements. Such statements are generally identified by the use of words such as "anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "forecast", "may", "will", "project", "should", "plan", "intend", "believe" and similar expressions (including the negatives thereof). In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking information as to Zargon s corporate strategy and business plans, Zargon s oil exploration project inventory and development plans, Zargon s dividend policy and the amount of future dividends, future commodity prices, Zargon s expectation for uses of funds from financing, Zargon s capital expenditure program and the allocation and the sources of funding thereof, Zargon s cash flow and dividend model and the assumptions contained therein and the results there from, anticipated payout rates, 2016 and beyond production and other guidance and the assumptions contained therein, estimated tax pools, Zargon s reserve estimates, Zargon s hedging policies, Zargon s drilling, development and exploitation plans and projects and the results there from and Zargon s ASP project plans 2016 and beyond, strategic alternatives review process, the source of funding for our 2016 and beyond capital program including ASP, capital expenditures, costs and the results therefrom. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, some of which are beyond our control, including such as those relating to results of operations and financial condition, general economic conditions, industry conditions, changes in regulatory and taxation regimes, volatility of commodity prices, escalation of operating and capital costs, currency fluctuations, the availability of services, imprecision of reserve estimates, geological, technical, drilling and processing problems, environmental risks, weather, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, stock market volatility, the ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources and competition from other industry participants for, among other things, capital, services, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel. Risks are described in more detail in our Annual Information Form, which is available on our website. Forward-looking statements are provided to allow investors to have a greater understanding of our business. You are cautioned that the assumptions, including, among other things, future oil and natural gas prices; future capital expenditure levels; future production levels; future exchange rates; the cost of developing and expanding our assets; our ability to obtain equipment in a timely manner to carry out development activities; our ability to market our oil and natural gas successfully to current and new customers; the impact of increasing competition; our ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms; and our ability to add production and reserves through our development and acquisition activities used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. Our actual results, performance, or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements. We can give no assurance that any of the events anticipated will transpire or occur, or if any of them do, what benefits we will derive from them. The forward-looking information contained in this presentation is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. Our policy for updating forward-looking statements is that Zargon disclaims, except as required by law, any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Barrels of Oil Equivalent - Natural gas is converted to a barrel of oil equivalent ( Boe ) using six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil. In certain circumstances, natural gas liquid volumes have been converted to a thousand cubic feet equivalent ( Mcfe ) on the basis of one barrel of natural gas liquids to six thousand cubic feet of gas. Boes and Mcfes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of one barrel to six thousand cubic feet of natural gas is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion ratio on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation. Estimated reserve values disclosed in this presentation do not represent fair market value. Discovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place ( DPIIP ) is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The recoverable portion of discovered petroleum initially in place includes production, reserves, and contingent resources; the remainder is unrecoverable. The aggregate of the exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial year and the change during that year in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for that year. 2

3 Sale of Southeast Saskatchewan Assets July 25, 2016 Release Zargon has entered into a definitive agreement for the sale of all of its Southeast Saskatchewan assets for cash consideration of $89.5 million cash, subject to normal closing adjustments. July 1, 2016 effective date Closing in early September 2016 Assets Sold Production: 1,211 barrels of oil equivalent per day (H1 2016) 95 percent oil and liquids Proven plus probable reserves: 5.16 million barrels of oil equivalent 96 percent oil and liquids McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. Dec. 31,

4 Impact of Asset Sale on Zargon Balance Sheet The proceeds of the transaction will initially be used to pay down Zargon s bank debt. As outlined below, Zargon s net debt (including debentures) will be approximately $35.0 million following the transaction: Bank debt and net working capital $65.0 million as of June 30, Net sale proceeds after closing adjustments $87.5 million. Outstanding June 2017 Convertible Debentures $57.5 million Remaining Assets Production: 2,882 barrels of oil equivalent per day (H1 2016) 80 percent oil and liquids Proven plus probable reserves: million barrels of oil equivalent 86 percent oil and liquids Undeveloped oil exploitation locations 17 net locations McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. Dec. 31,

5 Key Investment Highlights Zargon offers a variety of attractive oil exploitation opportunities ranging from horizontal exploitation infill drills to a long term Southern Alberta tertiary recovery project Oil Exploitation Focus Low Decline Oil Production Oil Exploitation Opportunities Zargon is an oil-weighted company focused on the exploitation of mature oil properties Following a divestment program of natural gas and high cost assets, Zargon s remaining high-graded operated oil reservoirs are characterized by significant oil-in-place, low recovery factors and low oil production declines Excluding the Little Bow ASP project, Zargon s current corporate oil decline of 14% is enabled by reservoir pressure support from waterfloods or natural aquifers The Little Bow ASP project (polymer only) is providing strong gains in 2016, which will be followed by stable rates for a few quarters ASP production growth will resume again when Phase 1 alkali sufactant injection (high graded) is resumed followed by the implementation of a modified phase 2 scheme Zargon s properties provide waterflood optimization opportunities plus horizontal drilling opportunities that enable improved reservoir recovery factors in existing pools The McDaniel reserve report books 17 P+P horizontal locations with average per well parameters of 63 Mbbl oil reserves, 48 bbl/d initial rate and $0.92 MM all-in costs 5 Control of Properties & Key Infrastructure Little Bow ASP Project Other Corporate Attributes Very high working interest and operatorship across core operating areas, batteries and facilities. Majority of batteries and facilities have been upgraded in the last five years An actively managed abandonment and reclamation program At higher oil prices, the existing ASP infrastructure can be utilized for multiple ASP phases and Polymer only projects seeking a 10 percent incremental oil recovery on over 80 million barrels of working interest oil-in-place. Zargon holds ~$279 million of high quality tax pools (March 31, 2016), including $144 million of non capital losses

6 Corporate Overview Capitalization (1) Asset Profile Share Price (07/22/16) $0.455 Last Quarter Production (Q1 2016) Gas (MMcf/d) % Gas Liquids (bbl/d) % Liquids Total (boe/d) % of Production Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.5 Market Capitalization $14 North Dakota % % % Net Debt (2) $124 Alberta Plains (excl. ASP) % 1,452 72% 2,012 68% Option Proceeds Little Bow ASP % % % Entity Value $138 LQ Daily Production % 2,326 79% 2, % 52 Week High $ Week Low $0.35 Net Debt Summary (2) Credit Facility Drawn $65 Convertible Debentures (Due June 2017) $58 Working Capital Deficiency $1 Net Debt $124 Credit Facility Summary (3) Credit Facility $70 Drawn $65 Bank Line Available $5 % Drawn 93% Other Company Details Employees 26 Office 8 Field Headquarters Calgary, Alberta, Canada Primary Exchange Listing TSE Reserve Evaluators McDaniel (1) All numbers in $MMs except per share values. (2) Net debt calculated as long term debt plus working capital deficiency at March 31, 2016 (3) Credit facility at June 21,

7 Conventional Properties zargon.ca

8 Alberta Plains (excluding ASP) Zargon has maintained a low production decline despite restricted capital programs Q production of 2,012 boe/d 72% liquids-weighted (16-32º API) Average WI ~72%, ~98% operated Oil production decline of ~14% over the last 12 months (moderating) No drilling in 2015 due to capital allocation considerations Drilling programs of prior years had been successful in managing overall production decline Multiple exploitation and development opportunities have been identified throughout Zargon s asset base including: 14 booked infill and exploitation drilling opportunities (McDaniel locations) Good 3D seismic coverage over key properties support an additional 11+ unbooked locations Property Q Production % Liquids API OOIP Recovery to Date Decline Gross Undeveloped Locations (boe/d) (%) ( º ) (MMbbl) (%) (%) McDaniel Additional Bellshill Lake % % 14% 5 1+ Killam % % 12% 5 3+ Taber % % 19% 3 5+ Little Bow (Conventional) % % 7% none tbd 8 Alberta Other % n.a n.a. 6% 1 2+ Total 2,012 71% % 16%

9 Alberta Plains Properties Overview (Excluding Little Bow ASP) Operating Summary Q1/2016 Production 1,452 bbl/d (2,012 boe/d) Oil Prod n Decline Rate 14% / year Royalty Rate 3.1% Forecast Quarterly OPEX $3.25 million ($13 million in 2016) Reserves: McDaniel has recognized 14 gross (13.8 net) P+PUD locations and there is the potential of more than 11 additional locations 2,000 Zargon Alberta Excluding Little Bow Phase 1 ASP Wells 1,800 Oil Production Rate (bbl/day) 9 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Additions 2015 Additions 2014 Additions 2013 Additions Q Contribution Decline Rate Base 73% 11.1% % 12.5% % 22.1% Additions % 27.9% Base Production 2015 n/a n/a Based on non ASP Alberta oil wells licensed to Zargon which were on production in 2016 (data to May 31, 2016) McDaniel Reserves (2015 Year End) Liquids Total PV 10% (mbbl) (mboe) ($MM) PDP 3,161 3,828 $ 50.6 TP 3,532 4,577 $ 56.1 P+PDP 4,183 5,104 $ 66.0 P+P * 5,214 6,873 $ 81.2 * includes new wells, tie-ins and reactivations

10 Little Bow ASP (Tertiary EOR) zargon.ca

11 Little Bow ASP Project Zargon s Little Bow ASP project is showing good oil banking and production gains. Phase 1 of the Little Bow ASP project was implemented in March 2014 in the heart of the Mannville I Pool Little Bow ASP Plan View Recent rates of 622 boe/d (94% oil and liquids, 21º API) North and Central regions of the scheme are responding very well and are anticipated to recover a full 12% incremental recovery of their 15 million bbl of oil-in-place Cumulative Phase 1 ASP injection at 22% of the pore volume which compares to a design target of 30% (8% remaining) To reduce costs, alkali and surfactant injections have been suspended. Model studies indicate that a one year suspension will not impact ultimate oil recovery With higher oil prices, AS injections will be resumed in the high-graded central region area, which would be followed up with the AS injections in a modified (truncated) phase 2 area. 11

12 Little Bow ASP EOR in a mature Southern Alberta Waterflood Alberta Crown July 11 Announcement Extends EOR royalty program to polymer projects At higher oil prices, the existing ASP infrastructure can be utilized for multiple ASP and Polymer only projects seeking a 10 percent incremental oil recovery on over 80 million barrels of working interest oil-in-place. 12 Zargon W.I. (%) W.I. OIIP (mmbbl) Phase 1 (I Pool) North and Central South Future Potential Phases Remaining I/P Pools U&W Unit (D8D/H9H Pools) G Unit (B8B Pool) MM Unit (E8E Pool) C8C / X8X Pool Total 89

13 Little Bow ASP (Tertiary EOR) Overview Operating Summary Q1/2016 Production 479 bbl/d (535 boe/d) Oil Prod n Decline Rate n/a (increasing rates) Royalty Rate 2.9% Forecast Quarterly OPEX $1.25 million ($5 million in 2016) Significant OPEX improvements are anticipated: AS injections (incl. water softening) are now suspended. Streamlined facility operations and improved pumping designs. Based on these improvements, Q2 OPEX dropped to $1.15 million. Q Contribution Decline Rate Base 73% 12.9% % 15.1% % 22.6% % 26.2% 2015 n/a n/a McDaniel Phase 1 Reserves (2015 Year End) Liquids Total PV 10% (mbbl) (mboe) ($MM) PDP ,268 $ 23.9 TP 2,187 2,358 $ 32.9 P+PDP 1,462 1,688 $ 30.0 P+P 3,463 3,734 $

14 Phase 1 Response and Forecast 14

15 ASP Enhanced Oil Recovery Process Dilute concentrations of chemicals (Alkali, Surfactant and Polymer) in water are injected into an existing oil pool to scrub out oil that waterflooding alone will not recover. Surfactants: Detergent; mobilizes trapped oil. Alkali: Increases surfactant effectiveness. Polymer (Thickener): Thickened water helps sweep oil from the reservoir. 1) ASP Injection A blend of Alkali, Surfactant & Polymer mobilizes trapped oil 2) Polymer Push Polymer displaces mobilized oil to producing wells 3) Terminal Waterflood Return to waterflood to complete oil displacement OIL BANK ASP POLYMER WATER 15

16 Analog ASP Performance (The Prize) Husky Taber Mannville B ASP Husky Gull Lake ASP The Taber Mannville B and Gull Lake ASP projects are good analogs to our Little Bow ASP project. Successful ASP projects provide stable production volumes for many years after the first three years of cost intensive AS injections are completed. Although our Little Bow production response was slower than anticipated, we continue to foresee many years of production growth followed by many years of free cash generating stable production for our Little Bow property. 16

17 Little Bow ASP Project Analog Taber Mannville B ASP Analog Most mature Canadian ASP project; Husky Operated Same geological setting, oil quality, reservoir size and pre- ASP depletion state as Zargon s Little Bow pool; ASP injection since 2006 Incremental recovery greater than 12% is projected Little Bow Mannville I and P Pools (Zargon) Oil Production (bbl/d) 10,000 1, First ASP Injection May, 2006 May 07 May 06 May 08 May 09 Taber Production History May 10 May 11 May 12 May 13 May 14 AER DPIIP = 43.1 mmbbl ASP Recovery Pool Rec* Percent mmbbl Mmbbl 8% % % % % * Recovery where ASP flood returns to pre ASP levels 8% RF 10% RF 12% RF 14% RF 16% RF 1, Oil Cut (%) Oil Cut (%) 17 8% RF 10% RF 12% RF 14% RF 16% RF ,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 Data to December 2014 Cumulative Oil Production (mbbl) Taber Mannville B Pool (Husky)

18 Cash Flow Projections & Valuations zargon.ca

19 Zargon H Cash Flow Parameters (Pro forma SE Saskatchewan Sale) Production Oil Gas Equiv. 2,240 bbl/d 3.05 mmcf/d 2,750 boe/d; compares to H rate of 2,882 boe/d. Other Parameters Oil Prices WTI oil price to Zargon average field differential; $18.0 Cdn./bbl Gas Prices $2.05/mcf Alberta average field price Royalties 8% Alberta, 24% North Dakota (includes state and severance taxes) G&A Costs $2.4 million (6 mos.) after reorganization and severance Interest $1.7 million (6 mos.) full debenture cost, no interest on cash balances Costs & Capital Operating Abd. & Reclam. US Taxes ASP Capital Conv. Capital $10.0 million (6 mos.) $9.0 million Alberta, $1.0 million North Dakota $0.3 million. $ nil $1.8 million chemical costs. $0.6 million maintenance capital (minor exploitation and facility costs). 19

20 Zargon H Cash Flows (Annualized) (Pro forma SE Sask. Asset Sale) No Drilling WTI Case) Pricing (US/bbl) FX (US/Cdn.) Field Pricing (Cdn./bbl) Annualized Field Cash Flow (million) Annualized Corporate Cash Flow (million) Annualized Free Cash Flow After All Capital (million) $35 $0.72 $30.61 $ 3.9 ($ 4.9) ($ 9.7) $45 $0.75 $42.00 $12.3 $ 3.5 ($ 1.3) $50 $0.765 $47.36 $16.2 $ 7.4 $ 2.6 $55 $0.78 $52.51 $20.0 $11.2 $ 6.4 $65 $0.81 $62.25 $27.2 $18.3 $ Cash Flow ($ millions) Alberta Plains Cash Flow Field Cash Flow Corporate Cash Flow WTI Oil Price ($US/bbl) Zargon s cash flows are exceptionally sensitive to oil prices. Zargon s assets provide positive field cash flow down to less than $35 US/bbl WTI price and corporate cash flow down to less than $45 US/bbl WTI. At higher prices, Zargon s assets provide significant free cash flow that can be used to retire debt, reinstate/expand the Little Bow ASP floods or drill high-graded horizontal oil exploitation wells.

21 Valuation based on H Cash Flow (Pro forma SE Sask. Asset Sale) No Drilling Case) WTI Pricing (US/bbl) Field Cash Flow (million) Five Times Field Cash Flow (million) Zargon Q Net Debt (million) Attributed to Zargon Shares (million) Calculated Zargon Value (per share) $35 $ 3.9 $ 19.5 $ 35.0 $ nil $ nil $45 $12.3 $ 61.5 $ 35.0 $26.5 $0.87 $50 $16.2 $ 81.0 $ 35.0 $46.0 $1.51 $55 $20.0 $100.0 $ 35.0 $65.0 $2.13 $65 $27.2 $136.0 $ 35.0 $101.0 $3.31 Share Price ($ per share) Zargon Share Value - Five times Property Cash Flow WTI Oil Price ($US/bbl) Zargon s long-life oil reserves provide investor s exceptional torque (both operational and financial leverage) to future increases in oil prices. Assuming a corporate valuation based on a five times property multiple suggests that significantly higher share prices may be realizable if/when WTI oil prices rebound to higher levels.

22 Reserves Summary Reserves Summary (1) Natural Gas B.Tax Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Total % Liquids 10% Mbbl MMcf Mbbl Mbbl % $MM Proved Developed Producing 6,184 5, ,125 88% 93.7 Developed Non Producing 186 2, % 4.2 UnDeveloped 1, ,596 97% 12.4 Total Proved 7,918 7, ,247 86% Probable Additional 5,615 5, ,511 87% 70.7 Total Proved plus Probable 13,534 12, ,758 87% McDaniel WTI Price Forecast (December 31, 2015) (1) McDaniel & Associates Consultants Limited reserve appraisal as of December 31, 2015 Incorporates sale of South East Sask. assets WTI Price ($US/bbl)

23 Zargon Enterprise Value July 22, 2016 Price (Prior to SE Sask. Asset Sale Announcement) Zargon Valuation with Discounted Debentures (July 22 pricing) Common Shares July 22, 2016) Debentures July 22, 2016) Add Net Working Capital & Bank Debt June 30, 2016) Total Enterprise Value $ 13.9 million $ 30.5 million $ 65.0 million $ million H Production (4,093 boe/d est. 85% oil/liquids) $26,700 per boe/d 2015 YE Reserves PDP (10.44 mmboe 90% oil/liquids) $10.48 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (13.08 mmboe 89% oil/liquids) $ 8.36 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2PDP (13.60 mmboe 90% oil/liquids) $ 8.04 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2P (20.90 mmboe 89% oil/liquids) $ 5.23 per boe Zargon Valuation with Debentures at Face Value Common Shares July 22, 2016) Debentures (0.575 face value) Add Net Working Capital & Bank Debt June 30, 2016) Total Enterprise Value $ 13.9 million $ 57.5 million $ 65.0 million $ million H Production (4,093 boe/d est. 85% oil/liquids) $33,300 per boe/d 2015 YE Reserves PDP (10.44 mmboe 90% oil/liquids) $13.06 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (13.08 mmboe 89% oil/liquids) $10.43 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2PDP (13.60 mmboe 90% oil/liquids) $10.03 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2P (20.90 mmboe 89% oil/liquids) $ 6.53 per boe 23 Prior to the July 25, 2016 Southeast Saskatchewan asset sale announcement, Zargon s oil assets were valued at low levels that could be highly accretive to potential acquirers on both a production or reserves basis.

24 Zargon Enterprise Value July 22, 2016 Price (Incorporating the SE Sask. Asset Sale Announcement) Zargon Valuation with Discounted Debentures (July 22 pricing) Common Shares July 22, 2016) Debentures July 22, 2016) Add Net Working Capital & Bank Debt June 30, 2016) Total Enterprise Value $ 13.9 million $ 30.5 million ($22.5 million) $ 21.9 million H Production (2,882 boe/d est. 80% oil/liquids) $7,600 per boe/d 2015 YE Reserves PDP (7.11 mmboe 87% oil/liquids) $ 3.08 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (9.23 mmboe 86% oil/liquids) $ 2.37 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2PDP (9.32 mmboe 87% oil/liquids) $ 2.35 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2P (15.74 mmboe 86% oil/liquids) $ 1.39 per boe Zargon Valuation with Debentures at Face Value Common Shares July 22, 2016) Debentures (0.575 face value) Add Net Working Capital & Bank Debt June 30, 2016) Total Enterprise Value $ 13.9 million $ 57.5 million ($22.5 million) $ 48.9 million H Production (2,882 boe/d est. 80% oil/liquids) $17,000 per boe/d 2015 YE Reserves PDP (7.11 mmboe 87% oil/liquids) $ 6.88 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (9.23 mmboe 86% oil/liquids) $ 5.30 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (9.32 mmboe 87% oil/liquids) $ 5.25 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2P (15.74 mmboe 86% oil/liquids) $ 3.11 per boe 24 Incorporating the July 25, 2016 Southeast Saskatchewan asset sale announcement, Zargon s oil assets continue to be valued at low levels that could be highly accretive to potential acquirers on both a production or reserves basis.

25 Key Takeaways Deep Discount to NAV Investors buy Zargon at a large discount to the proved and probable (or proved developed producing) net asset value when evaluated at prices above current strip. Despite recent encouraging production and oil cut trends, little or no value is attributed to the Little Bow ASP project. Zargon s long-life oil reserves provide investor s exceptional torque (operational, financial and oil exploitation leverage) to future increases in oil prices. Strategic Process Ongoing Zargon s Board and management believe that Zargon s share price has not been reflective of the fundamental value inherent in the Company. Zargon s conventional oil exploitation locations and follow-up Little Bow ASP programs hold significant potential that could be accelerated by a better capitalized entity. Scotia s broad marketing process has resulted in the announced sale of the Zargon s Williston Basin Saskatchewan assets. The strategic process continues. 25

26 Corporate Presentation July 25, 2016 zargon.ca