Corporate Presentation

Transcription

1 Corporate Presentation September 1, 2016 zargon.ca

2 Forward Looking-Advisory Forward-Looking Statements - This presentation offers our assessment of Zargon's future plans and operations as at August 31, 2016, and contains forwardlooking statements. Such statements are generally identified by the use of words such as "anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "forecast", "may", "will", "project", "should", "plan", "intend", "believe" and similar expressions (including the negatives thereof). In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking information as to Zargon s corporate strategy and business plans, Zargon s oil exploration project inventory and development plans, Zargon s dividend policy and the amount of future dividends, future commodity prices, Zargon s expectation for uses of funds from financing, Zargon s capital expenditure program and the allocation and the sources of funding thereof, Zargon s cash flow and dividend model and the assumptions contained therein and the results there from, anticipated payout rates, 2016 and beyond production and other guidance and the assumptions contained therein, estimated tax pools, Zargon s reserve estimates, Zargon s hedging policies, Zargon s drilling, development and exploitation plans and projects and the results there from and Zargon s ASP project plans 2016 and beyond, strategic alternatives review process, the source of funding for our 2016 and beyond capital program including ASP, capital expenditures, costs and the results therefrom. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, some of which are beyond our control, including such as those relating to results of operations and financial condition, general economic conditions, industry conditions, changes in regulatory and taxation regimes, volatility of commodity prices, escalation of operating and capital costs, currency fluctuations, the availability of services, imprecision of reserve estimates, geological, technical, drilling and processing problems, environmental risks, weather, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, stock market volatility, the ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources and competition from other industry participants for, among other things, capital, services, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel. Risks are described in more detail in our Annual Information Form, which is available on our website. Forward-looking statements are provided to allow investors to have a greater understanding of our business. You are cautioned that the assumptions, including, among other things, future oil and natural gas prices; future capital expenditure levels; future production levels; future exchange rates; the cost of developing and expanding our assets; our ability to obtain equipment in a timely manner to carry out development activities; our ability to market our oil and natural gas successfully to current and new customers; the impact of increasing competition; our ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms; and our ability to add production and reserves through our development and acquisition activities used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. Our actual results, performance, or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements. We can give no assurance that any of the events anticipated will transpire or occur, or if any of them do, what benefits we will derive from them. The forward-looking information contained in this presentation is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. Our policy for updating forward-looking statements is that Zargon disclaims, except as required by law, any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Barrels of Oil Equivalent - Natural gas is converted to a barrel of oil equivalent ( Boe ) using six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil. In certain circumstances, natural gas liquid volumes have been converted to a thousand cubic feet equivalent ( Mcfe ) on the basis of one barrel of natural gas liquids to six thousand cubic feet of gas. Boes and Mcfes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of one barrel to six thousand cubic feet of natural gas is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion ratio on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation. Estimated reserve values disclosed in this presentation do not represent fair market value. Discovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place ( DPIIP ) is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The recoverable portion of discovered petroleum initially in place includes production, reserves, and contingent resources; the remainder is unrecoverable. The aggregate of the exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial year and the change during that year in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for that year. 2

3 Strategic Review Asset Sales Southeast Saskatchewan Zargon has concluded the sale of all of its Southeast Saskatchewan assets for cash consideration of $89.5 million cash, subject to $2.7 million of transaction and severance costs. July 1, 2016 effective date Closed on September 1, 2016 Killam, Alberta Zargon has entered into a definitive agreement for the sale of all of its Killam, Alberta assets for cash consideration of $4.0 million cash, subject to normal closing adjustments. August 1, 2016 effective date Closing scheduled for mid-september 2016 Production & Reserves Sold Combined Production: 1,344 barrels of oil equivalent per day (H1 2016) 92 percent oil and liquids Combined Proven plus probable reserves: 5.81 million barrels of oil equivalent 92 percent oil and liquids McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. Dec. 31,

4 Impact of Asset Sales on Zargon Remaining Assets Production: 2,749 barrels of oil equivalent per day (H1 2016) 81 percent oil and liquids Proven plus probable reserves: million barrels of oil equivalent 88 percent oil and liquids Undeveloped oil exploitation locations 12 net locations McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. Dec. 31, 2015 The property sales have the following impact on Zargon s (June 30, 2016) balance sheet: Property Description & Closing Property Value (million) Transaction and Severance Costs (million) Net Proceeds (million) Pre Sale Bank Debt, Debentures & WC Deficiency (million) Available Cash (million) Post Sale Net Debt (Debentures & WC Deficiency) (million) SE Sask (Sept. 1) $89.5 $2.7 $86.8 $122.3 $22.0 $35.5 Killam (mid-sept.) $4.0 $0.0 $4.0 $35.5 $26.0 $31.5 4

5 Key Investment Highlights Zargon offers a variety of attractive oil exploitation opportunities ranging from horizontal exploitation infill drills to a long term Southern Alberta tertiary recovery project Oil Exploitation Focus Low Decline Oil Production Oil Exploitation Opportunities Zargon is an oil-weighted company focused on the exploitation of mature oil properties Following a divestment program of natural gas and high cost assets, Zargon s remaining high-graded operated oil reservoirs are characterized by significant oil-in-place, low recovery factors and low oil production declines Zargon s current blended corporate oil decline of 11% is enabled by reservoir pressure support from natural aquifers, waterfloods and tertiary floods The Little Bow ASP project (polymer only) has provided strong gains in H With the return of higher oil prices, ASP production growth will return with the resumption of (high graded) Phase 1 alkali sufactant injection and the implementation of a modified phase 2 scheme Zargon s properties provide waterflood optimization opportunities plus exploitaion drilling opportunities that enable improved reservoir recovery factors in existing pools The McDaniel reserve report books 12 P+P exploitation locations with average per well parameters of 60 Mbbl oil reserves, 48 bbl/d initial rate and $0.90 MM all-in costs 5 Control of Properties & Key Infrastructure Little Bow ASP Project Other Corporate Attributes Very high working interest and operatorship across core operating areas, batteries and facilities. Majority of batteries and facilities have been upgraded in the last five years An actively managed abandonment and reclamation program At higher oil prices, the existing ASP infrastructure can be utilized for multiple ASP phases and Polymer only projects seeking a 10 percent incremental oil recovery on over 80 million barrels of working interest oil-in-place. Zargon holds ~$279 million of high quality tax pools (June 30, 2016), including $144 million of non capital losses

6 Corporate Overview (Post SE Saskatchewan & Killam Sales) Capitalization (1) Asset Profile Share Price (08/31/16) $0.93 Last Quarter Production (Q2 2016) Gas (MMcf/d) Liquids (bbl/d) % Liquids Total (boe/d) % of Production Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.5 Market Capitalization $29.3 North Dakota % % Net Debt (2,3) $31.5 Alberta Plains (excl. Killam) ,256 74% 1,702 63% Option Proceeds - Little Bow - ASP % % Entity Value $60.8 LQ Daily Production ,201 82% 2, % 52-Week High $ Week Low $0.35 Net Debt Summary (2,3) Credit Facility Drawn $nil Convertible Debentures (Due June 2017) $57.5 Working Capital ($26.0) Net Debt $31.5 Credit Facility Summary (3) Credit Facility Drawn Bank Line Available Under Review $nil Under Review Other Company Details (Post SE Sask. & Killam Sales) Employees Headquarters Primary Exchange Listing Reserve Evaluators 22 Office 4 Field Calgary, Alberta, Canada TSE McDaniel (1) All numbers in $millions except per share values. (2) Net debt calculated as bank debt, convertible debentures plus net working capital (3) Post SE Saskatchewan sale (completed) and Killam sale (est. mid-sept. 2016) 6

7 Conventional Properties zargon.ca

8 Alberta Plains (excluding ASP & Killam) Zargon has maintained a low production decline despite restricted capital programs 8 Q production of 1,702 boe/d 74% liquids-weighted (16-32º API) Average WI ~72%, ~98% operated Oil production decline of ~13% over the last 12 months (moderating) No drilling in due to capital allocation considerations Drilling programs of prior years had been successful in managing overall production decline Multiple exploitation and development opportunities have been identified throughout Zargon s asset base including: 8 booked infill and exploitation drilling opportunities (McDaniel locations) Good 3D seismic coverage over key properties support an additional 8+ unbooked locations Q Production % Liquids API OOIP Recovery to Date Decline Gross Undeveloped Locations (boe/d) (%) ( ⁰ ) (MMbbl) (%) (%) McDaniel Additional Bellshill Lake % % 16% 5 1+ Taber % % 19% 3 5+ Little Bow (Conventional) % % 7% - tbd Alberta Other % n.a. n.a. 6% - 2+ Total 1,702 74% % 12% 8 8+

9 Alberta Plains Properties Overview (Excluding Little Bow ASP and Killam) Operating Summary Q2/2016 Production 1,256 bbl/d (1,702 boe/d) Royalty Rate 5.6% Forecast Quarterly OPEX $3.05 million ($12.2 million in 2016) Reserves: McDaniel has recognized 8 gross (8.0) P+PUD locations and there is the potential of an additional 8+ locations 2,000 Zargon Alberta - Excluding Little Bow Phase 1 ASP Wells 1,800 Oil Production Rate (bbl/day) 9 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Additions 2015 Additions 2014 Additions 2013 Additions Q Contribution Additions % 27.9% Base Production 2015 n/a n/a ased on non-asp Alberta oil wells licensed to Zargon which were on production in 2016 (data to May 31, 2016) Decline Rate Base 73% 11.1% % 12.5% % 22.1% McDaniel Reserves (2015 Year End) Liquids Total PV 10% (mbbl) (mboe) ($MM) PDP 3,034 3,596 $ 48.7 TP 3,300 4,197 $ 53.8 P+PDP 4,008 4,791 $ 63.3 P+P * 4,789 6,204 $ 75.9 * includes new wells, tie-ins and reactivations

10 Alberta Plains Bellshill Lake Bellshill Lake produces low-decline oil with remaining infill drilling potential Q production of 502 boe/d (95 % oil) Low production declines; OPEX $12.80/boe Historical capital programs have kept production flat since 2010 Yearly programs have continued to make positive impacts on production given the maturity of the field Zargon operated, high working interest (99% on production) 100% Working interest in all Dina production Areally extensive Dina sand with aquifer pressure support Rock is of sufficient quality to allow for high-impact vertical well development Horizontals drilled primarily as sidetracks to minimize surface disturbance 27 API oil

11 Alberta Plains Taber Mannville Taber is Zargon s main oil producing asset outside of the ASP project, and offers lowdecline production with remaining development potential Sunburst development is seismically defined with 30 horizontal wells drilled since on production, 5 on injection South pool is seeing stabilizing rates due to waterflood (vertical well historical production was negligible due to higher density oil) Estimated recovery to date ~10.1% Ultimate forecasted 2PDP recovery ~18% estimated OOIP of 15.5 MMbbl North pool receives pressure maintenance from two vertical flank injectors Estimated recovery to date ~ 16%, higher due to lower density oil (and vertical well recoveries) Ultimate forecasted 2PDP recovery ~ 21.7% estimated OOIP of 6.7 MMbbl

12 North Dakota Properties Undercapitalized area with high working interest, undeveloped land and horizontal drilling opportunities Long life conventional oil properties - Stable production, more than 15 MMbbl oil produced to date - Infrastructure and water disposal in place Established waterflood and unitized production Production optimization opportunities Includes undeveloped land with exploration opportunities Land Base of gross sections (18.43 net) 12,019 gross acres (11,795 net), 46% Undeveloped Total 2P Reserves NPV10 ~$26.6 MM 4 PUD locations Large OOIP with bypassed pay opportunities with infill drilling potential in all of the properties - Opportunities to increase drilling density, no downspacing regulations Similar properties in Saskatchewan have up to 20 wells/section Q Production % Liquids API OOIP Recovery to Date Decline Gross Undeveloped Locations (boe/d) (%) ( ⁰ ) (MMbbl) (%) (%) McDaniel Additional Haas % % 3% 1 5+ Mackobee Coulee % % 12% 3 7 Truro % % 11% None 2 Total % xx% xx% North Dakota Williston Basin geology is directly analogous to the offsetting Southeast Saskatchewan Williston Basin geology, however activity levels are substantially lower and the properties are less developed. 12

13 Little Bow ASP (Tertiary EOR) zargon.ca

14 Little Bow ASP Project Zargon s Little Bow ASP project is showing good oil banking and production gains. Phase 1 of the Little Bow ASP project was implemented in March 2014 in the heart of the Mannville I Pool Little Bow ASP Plan View Recent rates of 622 boe/d (94% oil and liquids, 21º API) North and Central regions of the scheme are responding very well and are anticipated to recover a full 12% incremental recovery of their 15 million bbl of oil-in-place Cumulative Phase 1 ASP injection at 22% of the pore volume which compares to a design target of 30% (8% remaining) To reduce costs, alkali and surfactant injections have been suspended. Model studies indicate that a one year suspension will not impact ultimate oil recovery With higher oil prices, AS injections will be resumed in the high-graded central region area, which would be followed up with the AS injections in a modified (truncated) phase 2 area. 14

15 Little Bow ASP EOR in a mature Southern Alberta Waterflood Alberta Crown July 11 Announcement Extends EOR royalty program to polymer projects At higher oil prices, the existing ASP infrastructure can be utilized for multiple ASP and Polymer only projects seeking a 10 percent incremental oil recovery on over 80 million barrels of working interest oil-in-place. 15 Zargon W.I. (%) W.I. OIIP (mmbbl) Phase 1 (I Pool) North and Central South Future Potential Phases Remaining I/P Pools U&W Unit (D8D/H9H Pools) G Unit (B8B Pool) MM Unit (E8E Pool) C8C / X8X Pool Total 89

16 Little Bow ASP (Tertiary EOR) Overview Operating Summary Q2/2016 Production 530 bbl/d (569 boe/d) Oil Prod n Decline Rate n/a (increasing rates) Royalty Rate 2.9% Forecast Quarterly OPEX $1.25 million ($5 million in 2016) Significant OPEX improvements are anticipated: AS injections (incl. water softening) are now suspended. Streamlined facility operations and improved pumping designs. Based on these improvements, Q2 OPEX dropped to $1.15 million. Q Contribution Decline Rate Base 73% 12.9% % 15.1% % 22.6% % 26.2% 2015 n/a n/a McDaniel Phase 1 Reserves (2015 Year End) Liquids Total PV 10% (mbbl) (mboe) ($MM) PDP ,268 $ 23.9 TP 2,187 2,358 $ 32.9 P+PDP 1,462 1,688 $ 30.0 P+P 3,463 3,734 $

17 ASP Enhanced Oil Recovery Process Dilute concentrations of chemicals (Alkali, Surfactant and Polymer) in water are injected into an existing oil pool to scrub out oil that waterflooding alone will not recover. Surfactants: Detergent; mobilizes trapped oil. Alkali: Increases surfactant effectiveness. Polymer (Thickener): Thickened water helps sweep oil from the reservoir. 1) ASP Injection A blend of Alkali, Surfactant & Polymer mobilizes trapped oil 2) Polymer Push Polymer displaces mobilized oil to producing wells 3) Terminal Waterflood Return to waterflood to complete oil displacement OIL BANK ASP POLYMER WATER 17

18 Analog ASP Performance (The Prize) Husky Taber Mannville B ASP Husky Gull Lake ASP The Taber Mannville B and Gull Lake ASP projects are good analogs to our Little Bow ASP project. Successful ASP projects provide stable production volumes for many years after the first three years of cost intensive AS injections are completed. Although our Little Bow production response was slower than anticipated, we continue to foresee many years of production growth followed by many years of free cash generating stable production for our Little Bow property. 18

19 Cash Flow Projections & Valuations zargon.ca

20 Zargon H Cash Flow Parameters (Pro forma SE Saskatchewan and Killam Sales) Production Oil Gas Equiv. 2,170 bbl/d (includes 560 bbl/d ASP and 400 bbl/d North Dakota) 2.75 mmcf/d 2,630 boe/d; compares to H rate of 2,686 boe/d. Other Parameters Oil Prices Gas Prices Royalties G&A Costs Interest WTI oil price to Zargon average field differential; $18.0 Cdn./bbl $2.05/mcf Alberta average field price 8% Alberta, 24% North Dakota (includes state and severance taxes) $2.4 million (6 mos.) after reorganization and severance $1.7 million (6 mos.) full debenture cost, no interest on cash balances Costs & Capital Operating Abd. & Reclam. US Taxes ASP Capital Conv. Capital $9.6 million (6 mos.) $8.6 million Alberta, $1.0 million North Dakota $0.3 million. $ nil $1.8 million chemical costs. $0.6 million maintenance capital (minor exploitation and facility costs). 20

21 Zargon H Cash Flows (Annualized) (Pro forma SE Saskatchewan and Killam Asset Sales) No Drilling WTI Case) Pricing Annualized Field Annualized FX Field Pricing Cash Flow Corporate Cash (US/bbl) (US/Cdn.) (Cdn./bbl) (million) Flow (million) $35 $0.72 $30.61 $ 4.7 ($ 4.2) ($ 9.0) $45 $0.75 $42.00 $12.8 $ 3.9 ($ 0.9) $50 $0.765 $47.36 $16.6 $ 7.8 $ 3.0 $55 $0.78 $52.51 $20.3 $11.4 $ 6.6 $65 $0.81 $62.25 $27.2 $18.3 $13.5 Annualized Free Cash Flow After All Capital (million) 21 Cash Flow ($ millions) 2016 Alberta Plains Cash Flow 30 Field Cash Flow 20 Corporate Cash WTI Oil Price ($US/bbl) Zargon s cash flows are exceptionally sensitive to oil prices. Zargon s assets provide positive field cash flow down to less than $35 US/bbl WTI price and corporate cash flow down to approximately $45 US/bbl WTI. At higher prices, Zargon s assets provide significant free cash flow that can be used to retire debt, reinstate/expand the Little Bow ASP floods or drill high-graded horizontal oil exploitation wells.

22 Valuation from H Cash Flow (Annualized) (Pro forma SE Saskatchewan and Killam Asset Sales) No Drilling Case) WTI Pricing (US/bbl) Field Cash Flow (million) 4.5 Times Field Cash Flow (million) Zargon Pro Forma Net Debt (million) Attributed to Zargon Shares (million) Calculated Zargon Value (per share) $35 $ 4.7 $ 21.2 $ 31.5 $ nil $ nil $45 $12.8 $ 57.6 $ 31.5 $ 26.1 $0.86 $50 $16.6 $ 74.7 $ 31.5 $ 43.2 $1.42 $55 $20.3 $ 91.4 $ 31.5 $ 59.9 $1.96 $65 $27.2 $122.4 $ 31.5 $ 90.9 $2.98 Share Price ($ per share) Zargon Share Value Times Property Cash Flow WTI Oil Price ($US/bbl) Zargon s long-life oil reserves provide investor s exceptional torque (both operational and financial leverage) to future increases in oil prices. A corporate valuation based on a 4.5 times property cash flow multiple suggests that significantly higher share prices may be realizable if/when WTI oil prices rebound to higher levels. 22

23 Reserves Summary Reserves Summary (1) Crude Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas Liquids Total % Liquids B.Tax 10% Mbbl MMcf Mbbl Mbbl % $MM Proved Developed Producing 6,057 4, ,895 89% 91.9 Developed Non-Producing 186 2, % 4.1 UnDeveloped 1, , % 12.0 Total Proved 7,686 6, ,868 87% Probable Additional 5,423 4, ,222 88% 67.8 Total Proved plus Probable 13,109 11, ,090 88% (1) McDaniel & Associates Consultants Limited reserve appraisal as of December 31, 2015 Incorporates sale of South East Saskatchewan & Killam assets WTI Price ($US/bbl) McDaniel WTI Price Forecast (December 31, 2015)

24 Zargon Enterprise Value August 31, 2016 Price (Incorporating the completed SE Sask. Asset Sale Only) Zargon Valuation with Discounted Debentures (August 31 pricing) Common Shares August 31, 2016) Debentures August 31, 2016) Subtract Positive Working Capital Sept. 1, 2016) Total Enterprise Value $ 28.4 million $ 44.6 million ($22.0 million) $51.0 million H Production (2,882 boe/d est. 80% oil/liquids) $17,700 per boe/d 2015 YE Reserves PDP (7.11 mmboe 87% oil/liquids) $ 7.17 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (9.23 mmboe 86% oil/liquids) $ 5.53 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2PDP (9.32 mmboe 87% oil/liquids) $ 5.47 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2P (15.74 mmboe 86% oil/liquids) $ 3.24 per boe Zargon Valuation with Debentures at Face Value Common Shares August 31, 2016) Debentures (0.575 face value) Subtract Positive Working Capital Sept. 1, 2016) Total Enterprise Value $ 28.4 million $ 57.5 million ($22.0 million) $63.9 million H Production (2,882 boe/d est. 80% oil/liquids) $22,200 per boe/d 2015 YE Reserves PDP (7.11 mmboe 87% oil/liquids) $ 8.99 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (9.23 mmboe 86% oil/liquids) $ 6.92 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (9.32 mmboe 87% oil/liquids) $ 6.86 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2P (15.74 mmboe 86% oil/liquids) $ 4.06 per boe 24 Incorporating the Southeast Saskatchewan asset sale (but not the Killam property sale announced on September 1), Zargon s low decline oil assets continue to be valued at low levels when compared to industry peers.

25 Key Takeaways Deep Discount to NAV Investors buy Zargon at a large discount to the proved and probable (or proved developed producing) net asset value when evaluated at prices above current strip. At current prices, little or no value is attributed to the very significant Little Bow ASP project upsides. Zargon s long-life oil reserves provide investor s exceptional torque (operational, financial and oil exploitation leverage) to future increases in oil prices. Strategic Process Ongoing Zargon s Board and management believe that Zargon s share price has not been reflective of the fundamental value inherent in the Company. A broad marketing process has resulted in the sale of Zargon s Williston Basin Saskatchewan and Killam, Alberta assets. The strategic review continues. 25

26 Corporate Presentation September 1, 2016 zargon.ca