Ords Monthly AMAZON IN AUSTRALIA JUNGLE WARFARE. "Amazon has an unwavering willingness to invest for the long term." Ord Minnett Research June 2017

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1 Ords Monthly AMAZON IN AUSTRALIA JUNGLE WARFARE Ord Minnett Research June 2017 Local investors have been in a lather since Amazon confirmed in April its intention to establish operations here in Australia, posing a serious threat to department stores and discretionary retailers. Concerns widened more recently, when Amazon s bid for US supermarket retailer Whole Foods increased the likelihood of the giant online retailer also entering our grocery industry. The disruptive nature of Amazon as a competitor driving prices and margins lower, its focus on customer service, and the change it is likely to trigger in consumer practices, suggest the risk is significant for the whole retail sector. More specifically, retailers could cede market share and face downward pressure on earnings and, by extension, a reduction in valuation multiples for retail stocks. Australian retailers are developing their strategic responses based on how global peers have handled the entry of Amazon into other markets; some retailers are more advanced than others. However, logistics challenges are large given Australia s geography and Amazon has an unwavering willingness to invest for the long term. This will mean that retailers (food and non-food) will have to increase operating and capital expenditures to compete online. With this structural change looming, we have cut profit forecasts for the major discretionary retailers under our coverage Harvey Norman, JB Hi-Fi, Myer and Super Retail with the first full year effect occurring in For the grocery retailers, Amazon s move into fresh grocery is further away, so we haven t altered expectations at this point. However, they will need to continue investing heavily in preparation. There has also been speculation that Amazon could repeat its rollout-throughacquisition strategy here in Australia, but such activity is unlikely in the foreseeable future. All this sector change comes as pressures on the consumer mount: Australian households are typically heavily indebted, making them more sensitive to changes in income and wealth; utility prices continue to rise; and while unemployment is low, so is wage growth. This feeble sentiment is reflected in consumer spending. ASX 200 Retailers Index Index 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 Jan-17 Source: IRESS Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Weekly "Amazon has an unwavering willingness to invest for the long term." On a positive note though, a firstorder effect of Amazon s entry is likely to be lower goods inflation, which will in fact boost real incomes in the near term. Another interpretation of this impact is that a new, foreign retailer, selling heavilydiscounted items, effectively represents a positive terms of trade shock in the short term, as retail goods are mostly imported. And unlike the conventional version of such a shock, which emanates from commodity exports, and nowadays has a questionable transmission to the non-traded sector, this version would accrue directly to households. May-17 Jun-17

2 INVESTMENT STRATEGY IDEAS UPDATE The S&P/ASX 200 Index has hardly budged this calendar year, with dividends the main contributor to a modest 3% return to date. Substantial capital gains in healthcare (up 23%), utilities (up 14%) and selected industrials (up13%), have been insufficient to offset the drag from banks (down 1%), resources (down 5%) and telcos (down 11%). In reviewing our themes and exposures, we have decided to make some changes: we remove some US-linked exposures on valuation grounds, e.g. Goodman Group and Magellan Financial Group, though we continue to prefer companies with global growth options; we add Blackmores to our structural growth theme as a play on the ageing population and health and well-being trends, given its retreat from a high of $220 to currently below $100; and signs of consumer weakness see us add discretionary retailer Super Retail to our least-preferred category. CONTENTS Investment Strategy 2 Ideas update Tabcorp and Tatts Group 5 Narrowing the field APA Group 6 An offer you can't review HFA Holdings 7 A new alternative CSL Limited 8 Seeing red Global over local We rename our US Pedals Faster theme as Global over Local, which better reflects our view that the global growth narrative is on a more solid footing, a divergence from trends in Australia. This is more than just a US story, with economic signals in Europe providing confidence that growth there can improve as well. The list of companies that we see will offset headwinds in Australia given their offshore growth options includes Boral, Orora, Ramsay Healthcare, Treasury Wine Estates and Westfield. Two names have been removed from this list Goodman Group and Magellan following strong share price performance this year. Against a flat market, these two stocks have generated a high-teens Global over local capital return in six months. A recent investor day update reaffirms Goodman s business is in great shape and it remains a beneficiary of e-commerce and urban renewal growth opportunities globally, but its share price, however, now looks stretched. For Magellan, strength in global equities, growth in funds under management, and the prospect of a modest performance fee has led to upgrades in consensus earnings estimates recently. However, with US equities trading near record highs, leaving less upside at present, and its flagship global equities fund primarily linked to US performance, including Nasdaq-listed companies where valuations have come under more scrutiny, we choose to step back from chasing the stock at this price. Price Offshore Company Rating Risk Target Revenues Boral Hold Higher $ % Orora Accumulate Medium $ % Ramsay Health Care Accumulate Medium $ % Treasury Wine Accumulate Higher $ % Westfield Accumulate Lower $ % Source: Ord Minnett Research. Based on pro-forma figures, including acquisitions.

3 Ords Monthly June Structural growth addition of Blackmores Key reasons for adding Blackmores are: 1) valuation on current consensus forecasts, Blackmores has retraced to a 21 times P/E, against expectations of a circa 25% recovery in earnings in FY18. This puts it on a price-earnings to growth ratio of 0.85 times. We note also that Swisse and Vitaco were recently sold at valuation multiples matching Blackmore's; 2) growth a play on both the ageing population and on health and well-being trends. Blackmores is a well-regarded vitamin and supplement brand, and we believe opportunities remain from further expanding its distribution channels in Asia, including into new markets, e.g. Indonesia and India, as well as through product launches; 3) encouraging signals following on from China s decision to delay regulatory changes, we have been encouraged by commentary from Blackmores and its peers Bellamy s and A2 Milk that sales trends in recent quarters have improved; 4) its balance sheet is relatively solid. Declining AUD/USD We continue to see the Australian dollar declining this year to around US$0.71, and then to US$0.67 by mid Rate cuts by the RBA are still a possibility, and with the US on a path of raising rates, the interest rate premium afforded to Australia should close. Furthermore, as commodity-price gains fade, the terms of trade should weaken again. Furthermore, tax reform in the US looks more feasible than in Australia, and if implemented, will improve the relative appeal of the US for business investment. For pure US-dollar exposure, we prefer the Betashares US Dollar ETF (USD). We previously also suggested another ETF, the Betashares S&P500 Yield Maximiser (UMAX), which offers exposure to US equities as well as the currency, but with US equities trading near record highs, and leaving less upside, for the time being, we are removing UMAX from the list. Our other previously listed ideas in this category, Orora, Treasury Wine, and Westfield have been reclassified under the Global over Local theme above. Structural growth Company Rating Price Target Theme AMP Accumulate $5.88 Superannuation Blackmores Hold $ Ageing population; Health & well-being Healthscope Hold $2.45 Ageing population MYOB Buy $4.30 Shift to online Ramsay Healthcare Accumulate $80.00 Ageing population Tassal Group Buy $5.23 Health & well-being Service Stream Accumulate $13.25 Shift to online Source: Ord Minnett Research estimates. The return of growth at a reasonable price Company Rating Price Target 2yr EPS growth PE Multiple ANZ Accumulate $ % 11.6x APA Group Buy $ % 35.5x Oil Search Accumulate $ % 22.4x Rio Tinto Accumulate $ % 9.1x Service Stream Buy $ % 13.0x Source: Ord Minnett Research estimates. 2yr EPS growth is compound annual growth rate. The return of growth at a reasonable price no changes Our view last year was that we still saw risks around earnings in Australia, and we expected investors to remain discerning around the multiples they pay for growth. With earnings growth forecasts on the S&P/ASX 200 Index being revised down again in recent months, confidence in earnings remains elusive. On our list of GARP stocks are our preferred bank and resource exposures: ANZ, Rio Tinto and Oil Search. Elsewhere, Service Stream last month upgraded its FY17 guidance by 10%, which will see the company deliver circa 40% earnings growth. Our forecast envisages another 10 15% per annum growth in 2018 and Meanwhile, APA Group s recent announcements point to more avenues for growth, e.g. Darling Downs solar farm, Yamarna Gas pipeline, Orbost Gas plant.

4 Yield plus no changes We believe that there is a reasonable chance of another rate cut in Australia, but if not, Reserve the cash rate will remain at depressed levels, so some yield makes sense. Our preferred names reflect companies which offer a decent yield pick-up to cash rates, but for which earnings growth and asset valuations are not as sensitive to a potential rise in long-end bond yields, which may be carried higher by global monetary policy. Risky business Given signs of weakness in the Australian consumer, e. g. consumer sentiment, retail sales, the threat of Amazon s entry, and soft trading updates from retailers, e.g. Automotive Holdings and Retail Food Group, we are adding a consumer discretionary company, Super Retail, to our least-preferred list. A recent trading update from the company already showed signs of slowing sales growth, particularly in automotive and sports. We remove Flight Centre from the list, as we believe the risk of another earnings downgrade has subsided, now that airfares appear to have stabilised. Yield plus Company Rating Price Target Yield (Franking) AMP Accumulate $ % (90%) Perpetual Hold $ % (100%) Wesfarmers Hold $ % (100%) Source: Ord Minnett Research estimates. Yield is FY18 estimate. Risky business Company Rating Risk Price Target Analyst Comments Coca Cola Amatil Lighten Medium $9.00 Cost savings will moderate the challenges, but issues are structural and will weigh on earnings growth. CCL also lacks valuation support. Super Retail Lighten Higher $7.25 Discretionary retail faces risks around a weak consumer and competitive threats. Super Retail is seeing slowing sales growth in key divisions and is also cycling some tougher comparables. Medibank Private Hold Higher $2.95 We hold concerns margins may slip as premium increases subside, policyholder numbers dip, and claims inflation is increasing. Mirvac Group Hold Medium $2.20 We are wary of the impact of tighter lending on residential property and the risks this poses for settlements and the outlook for price and volume growth. Source: Ord Minnett Research

5 Ords Monthly June TABCORP AND TATTS GROUP NARROWING THE FIELD Year to June 2016A 2017E 2018E TAH ($4.54) Profit after tax ($m) Price/Earnings (x) Dividend Yield (%) Franking (%) TTS ($4.22) Profit after tax ($m) Price/Earnings (x) Dividend Yield (%) Franking (%) Source: Company report, Ord Minnett Research. Profits are on a normalised basis. Tabcorp and Tatts (TAH, TTS) share prices 6 TAH TTS 5 $ 4 3 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Weekly Source: IRESS After 18 months of to-ing and fro-ing, Tabcorp and Tatts Group have secured their merger with little fanfare. The Australian Competition Tribunal approved the combination, contingent on the sale of Odyssey Gaming Services, which Tabcorp has prenegotiated with Federal Group. The scheme will be implemented by late August. We make several observations about the union and current trading conditions. Tatts estimates the merger will deliver a 2% boost to earnings per share in 2019, assuming $130 million in synergy benefits. However, those benefits are not guaranteed, as we believe there is execution risk in obtaining corporate and technology synergies. Tabcorp has also provided a trading update, which highlights poor performance in key areas. As a consequence, we ve downgraded our earnings per share estimates for Tabcorp by 2.1% and 5.5% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Tabcorp guidance Our 2017 profit forecast of $179 million was within Tabcorp revised guidance of $ million, but consensus was at $192 million. Several factors led to lowered guidance: second-half sports revenue is estimated to have contracted; increased losses from the UK start-up Sun Bets business; persistent competition; and operating expenditure levels are set to stay elevated while return on invested capital continues to fall. Significant items Tabcorp is expecting these to reach $161 million post-tax, larger than we expected. Some of this relates to the previously identified, albeit larger-than-expected, AUSTRAC/AFP items of $65 million and the Tatts merger expense of $34 million. Sun Bets is performing worse than guided, with the EBITDA loss in the June half of $24m being higher than the company s forecast of $15 miliion, although it was in line with the $23 million loss in the previous half. Merger approval The Australian Competition Tribunal approved the merger contingent on the sale of Odyssey, but this was anticipated by Tabcorp, although there was a risk that greater conditions would be imposed. Outlook The merger is moderately accretive in 2019 (8.1% with buyback of $500 million), but reliant on the full $130 million in synergies. Synergy realisation is assumed to commence in the June half of 2018, so our 2018 estimates are diluted by 6%. EPS neutrality is achieved with synergies of $113 million ($74 million with buyback). We believe there is execution risk to obtaining maximum corporate and technology synergies concurrently if Tabcorp requires Tatts employees to incorporate new wagering products onto Tatts systems without incurring system-rebuilding costs. Ord Minnett view Despite all the effort involved in combining the two companies, we feel little excitement about the merged group. At this point we have a Lighten on both stocks, which of course will be reviewed once they combine. Inhibited growth due to competitive pressure is unlikely to abate for the merged group, and execution risks surround Tabcorp s rollout of Sun Bets as the integration of a deteriorating UBET will be difficult. An attractive dividend yield may support the share price, although return on invested capital is falling. The Tatts lotteries business faces headwinds with a declining number of jackpots (and average size), while a slowdown in digital sales growth and further operating profit margin compression are expected to continue.

6 APA GROUP AN OFFER YOU CAN'T REVIEW Sector: Utilities Recomm: Buy Risk rating: Medium Share price: $9.66 Year to June 2016A 2017E 2018E Profit after tax ($m) Woodside APA Group Petroleum (APA) share (WPL) priceshare price 10 Earnings per share ($) Price/Earnings (x) Dividend ($) $ 9 8 Dividend Yield (%) Franking (%) May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Weekly Jun-17 Source: Company report, Ord Minnett Research. Profits are on a normalised basis. Source: IRESS APA Group owns and operates Australia s largest natural gas infrastructure business and other energy infrastructure assets such as gas storage and a wind farm. As part of an overhaul of the Australian energy sector, the federal government has outlined plans to scrap limited merits reviews a process considered by utility networks to be a fundamental protection against misuse of regulatory powers. Up to this point the review process allowed parties, including network businesses and consumers adversely affected by regulatory decisions, to seek a review. If the review process is stopped, we do not believe any announced regulatory changes to date will have a material impact on APA. We do recognise, however, that with energy prices increasing for consumers and industry, the government will be under increasing pressure to reduce cost pressures. The direct impact on APA is likely modest and we are unclear at to what further actions the government could take, but these policy changes could increase perceived regulatory risk. Limited merits review regime The federal government will abolish the limited reviews process with claims that networks had taken advantage of it by imposing additional costs on consumers. The regime allows parties affected by a prescribed decision of the Australian Energy Regulator to have that decision reviewed by the Australian Competition Tribunal where it can be established that there is a serious issue and grounds for review. Implications At a time when energy costs for consumers are increasing steeply, the abolition of the review process hands the energy regulator, an arm of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, significant power over regulated network revenues. This could mean consumers interests may be prioritised in future regulatory decisions. When considered alongside the government s new powers to limit gas exports, regulatory risk appears to be increasing in the energy sector and this could limit much-needed private investment. Consumer costs In its submission to the limited merits review consultation process, APA argued that regulatory uncertainty translates directly to a significant and negative impact on investor perception of the risk of investing in regulated assets, which makes it more difficult to attract capital to Australian energy infrastructure assets, which ultimately increases the costs to consumers. Implications for APA Overall, APA is not significantly affected by the announced changes. Regulatory risks will remain a headwind for the company but we note that only around 20% of the company s operating profit comes from regulated pipeline assets. APA s recent growth announcements (Reedy Creek Pipeline, Emu Downs Solar, Badgingarra Windfarm, Western Slopes Pipeline, Orbost Gas Plant, Darling Downs Solar Farm, Gruyere Pipeline) are not bound by regulation determined by the energy regulator. We maintain our Buy recommendation on APA and a price target of $10.90.

7 Ords Monthly June HFA HOLDINGS A NEW ALTERNATIVE Sector: Diversified Financials Recomm: Buy Risk rating: Medium Share price: $2.37 Year to June 2016A 2017E 2018E Profit after tax ($m) HFA Holdings (HFA) share price 3.00 Earnings per share ($) Price/Earnings (x) Dividend ($) $ Dividend Yield (%) Franking (%) Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Weekly Jun-17 Source: Company report, Ord Minnett Research. Profits are on a normalised basis. Source: IRESS HFA is a holding company for US-based Lighthouse Partners, a business focused on managing multi-manager hedge funds. Lighthouse has a strong track record of growth in assets under management, cash flow generation and recurring management fees. This is all backed by a sound management team with significant holdings in HFA, which provides strong incentives and alignment with other HFA shareholders. Despite all of these positives, HFA trades on a 2018 price/earnings ratio of just 7.9 times, the cheapest among ASX-listed fund managers. We recently initiated on HFA with a Buy recommendation and price target of $2.85 per share. Lighthouse manages a number of multi-strategy and strategy-focused funds. Since 2012, Lighthouse has grown assets under management by around US$3.4 billion, to reach US$9.5 billion. Of this five-year increase, half is attributable to performance and the other half has come from investors adding more money. Lighthouse operates a proprietary platform which sets it apart from similar managers and provides a number of key advantages: transparency over asset positions; enhanced control and asset security; improved liquidity; administrative cost savings; and greater data supporting timely risk management and monitoring of external managers. We believe there are a number of key reasons key to invest in HFA: Lighthouse generates around 99% of its revenue from recurring management fees; Assets under management continue to grow, with demand for alternative investments backed by impressive performance; Over the last two years, HFA has transformed its business to focus on the Lighthouse Partners platform and exit non-core businesses; On our estimates, HFA is now in the top 20 hedge fund-of-funds businesses globally (up from a ranking of 24th two years ago); HFA holds a net cash position of US$31 million (FY18e), with no debt; and HFA trades on an attractive price/ earnings ratio (with no cash tax payable for eight more years); this is despite expected earnings growth of 13% in 2018, and a dividend yield of around 9%. Balancing out our enthusiasm, we acknowledge that there are some key risks associated with the stock, including growth in assets under management failing to reach our expectations, greater pressure on fees, and performance of the underlying managers falling short of expectations. Overall though, we affirm our positive conviction in the stock.

8 Ords Monthly June CSL LIMITED SEEING RED Sector: Healthcare Recomm: Accum Risk: Medium Price: $ CSL has acquired an 80% stake in Ruide, a Chinese plasma fractionator, for US$352 million. At face value, the purchase price appears high, but this reflects the competition for Chinese plasma assets given the potential size of the market. The deal will provide CSL an entry point into this highgrowth, but highly regulated market, without taking undue risk. China s plasma-products market exceeded US$3.3 billion in 2016, with a 15% growth rate for the past five years. It is also the fastest growing immunoglobulin market in the world, and in volume, second only to the United States. Improved physician awareness and recent changes to reimbursement coverage for plasmaderived products will continue to drive strong demand. Ruide develops, manufactures and commercialises plasma-derived products for the Chinese domestic market including albumin, and immunoglobulin. The company also has an advanced pipeline of multiple coagulation factor products that it plans to launch in the coming years, including plasma-derived Factor VIII. In addition, Ruide owns four plasma collection centres and one manufacturing facility in Wuhan, Central China, and generated revenue of around US$30 million in Given import restrictions, ownership of domestic collections centres and capacity are required to fully access the market. In the medium term, CSL expects the current immunoglobulin supply shortage to expand, opening up a large opportunity, especially if it can successfully transfer its operating efficiencies to China. This investment has limited impact on our near-term earnings estimates, but CSL is investing in the medium to longer term potential. By our estimates, the US$500 million-plus investment (including the earn-out for the remaining 20% and US$75 million of capital expenditure) equates to more than 14 times the expected operating earnings if the current facility was operating at full capacity. The price is clearly elevated, but CSL will be the first foreign group to gain full access to the Chinese market. Nearer-term, we expect CSL will be able to generate 24% earnings per share growth in the 2018 financial year, supported by solid demand dynamics in its existing businesses and the launch of new products. Regulatory Disclosure: Ord Minnett is the trading brand of Ord Minnett Limited ABN , holder of AFS Licence Number , and ASX Market Participants of ASX and Chi-X. Ord Minnett Limited and/or its associated entities, directors and/or its employees may have a material interest in, and may earn brokerage from, any securities referred to in this document. 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