Q IPREO REGIONAL FLOW OF FUNDS SERIES

Transcription

1 Q IPREO REGIONAL FLOW OF FUNDS SERIES

2 Flow of Funds: Market Overview "n equities resumed their rally in the third quarter of 2017, outperforming the broader emerging markets. Healthy Chinese economic data and ongoing U.S. dollar weakness helped bolster risk appetite, but signs of monetary policy tightening in developed markets near the end of the quarter dampened investor sentiment", Aberdeen Equity Fund commentary Q3-17. According to a survey by FocusEconomics a concesus of economists noted that economic growth sped up in Q3-17 across LATAM in general despite country nuances. Recovering confidence, accommodative financial conditions, rising commodities prices and a healthy global backdrop drove the region s economic performance. At the country level, growth in Chile gained steam, supported by a resilient labor market and higher export revenues. Higher commodities prices also boosted Colombia s external sector in Q3-17, while Brazil was driven by strengthening household consumption and an improvement in investments. In contrast, Mexico s economy resisted the regional trend and decelerated, as natural disasters weighed on its performance and high inflation eroded household spending. Overall the pace of net inflows into the region doubled Q3-17 (+$9.1B) versus the previous quarter. Over 12 months inflows were up +$26.9B. At the sector level the region saw net outflows from Basic Materials and Industrials with all other sectors registering net inflows led by Consumer Services and Financials. Outlook Commentary from Ilan Furman, Portfolio manager for the Threadneedle fund Oct-18, illustrates some of the headwinds and equity performance risk factors likely to impact investment flows going forward in the region, "n equities fell by 2.6% in sterling terms in October. The region lagged emerging markets (EM) and developed markets, mainly due to global factors as sentiment on US growth strengthened, higher bond yields weighed on n currencies. n countries face diverse outlooks, considering their different points in the political, monetary and GDP growth cycles, as well as their varying exposure to commodities". Institutional Investment Flow Highlights Net Change by Region Net Change by Style 7, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000.0 N. America Rest of World UK & Ireland W. Europe Scandinavia Asia Other Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q , , ,000.0 Agg Gr./Growth Deep Val./Value Index GARP Specialty Yield Alternative Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 All regions increased exposure to LATAM equities during Q3-17 with the dominant buyers being North American investors, closely followed by the Rest of the World and UK & Ireland. Dodge & Cox topped North American buying with funds destined for Itau Unibanco Holding. While all styles are buying, inflows from Alternative investors increased nearly fourfold from the previous quarter to +$3.0B in Q3-17. Rest of World region (which includes LATAM investors) saw a tenfold increase in inflows with a number of regional investors leading the charge i.e. Truxt Investimentos, CSHG Clique Fundo de Investimento em Ações, Impulsora de Fondos Banamex, Sociedad Operadora de Sociedades de Inversión, Kapitalo Ownership by Investor Region vs Issuer Region Onwership by Investor Style vs Issuer Region E. Europe 0.0% E. Europe 1.4% Alternative 9.1% Alternative 2.3% Rest of World 23.6% Rest of World 6.7% Yield 1.9% Yield 4.1% MENA 0.8% MENA 3.4% Specialty 2.3% Specialty 10.1% Asia 2.5% Asia 51.6% Scandinavia 3.4% Scandinavia 2.3% GARP 7.0% GARP 5.1% UK & Ireland 13.9% UK & Ireland 7.1% Index 15.7% Index 11.1% W. Europe 5.3% W. Europe 3.5% Deep Val./Value 31.3% Deep Val./Value 20.2% N. America 50.4% N. America 24.0% Agg Gr./Growth 32.7% Agg Gr./Growth 47.0% Versus a proportional ownership benchmark, LATAM is overweight North American ownership by 26pp, while Asia ownership is underweight by 49pp compared to the same benchmark. The growth of passive inflows outstripped active inflows, +36.2% vs +34.1% since Q3-16. Despite the increase in passive investments, these investors remain underweight compared to the ownership.

3 MOST INVESTED MOST INVESTORS BOUGHT SOLD Flow of Funds: Active vs. Passive Investment (% Chg) Ownership by Orientation vs Issuer Region 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 100.0% 80.0% 20.3% 24.7% 25.0% 20.0% 60.0% 15.0% 40.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q % 0.0% 79.7% 75.3% Active Passive Active Passive Most Bought & Sold Sectors - Active Investors Most Bought & Sold Sectors - Passive Investors -2, , , , ,000.0 Basic Materials Consumer Goods Consumer Services Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Utilities , ,500.0 Basic Materials Consumer Goods Consumer Services Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Utilities Most Bought & Sold Stocks Security Industry Change $M Despegar.com, Corp. Travel Services and Leisure 1,416.0 Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) Oil, Gas and Coal 1,332.6 Atacadao S.A. Wholesale Vale S.A. Metals and Mining Grupo Supervielle S.A. Banking Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. Banking MercadoLibre, Inc. Retail BBVA Banco Frances S.A. Banking Ambev SA Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Banco do Brasil S.A. Banking Includes Active & Passive Investors 6,501.3 Security Industry Change $M Fresnillo plc Metals and Mining Embraer S.A. Aerospace and Defense Raia Drogasil S.A. Retail OHL Mexico S.A.B. DE C.V. Materials and Construction Copa Holdings, S.A. Transportation Services Bancolombia S.A. Banking Banco Santander-Chile Banking Estacio Participacoes S.A. Personal Services MRV Engenharia E Participacoes S.A. Homebuilding Grupo Financiero Banorte, S.A.B. de C.V Banking Includes Active & Passive Investors -2,255.3 Top Invested Cities Country / City Total Equity Assets Value Activity # Firms Country / City Total Equity Assets Value Activity # Firms United Kingdom (London) 2,935, , , United States (New York) 3,924, , United States (New York) 3,924, , Brazil (São Paulo) 36, , United States (San Francisco) 2,718, , , United Kingdom (London) 2,935, , , Brazil (São Paulo) 36, , Brazil (Rio de Janeiro) 36, , Brazil (Rio de Janeiro) 36, , United States (Boston) 4,199, , United States (Malvern) 2,715, , France (Paris) 394, , United States (Boston) 4,199, , United States (Chicago) 1,027, , United States (Los Angeles) 1,320, , , Canada (Toronto) 785, , Mexico (Mexico City) 21, , Spain (Madrid) 68, Chile (Santiago) 16, , United States (San Francisco) 2,718, , , United States (Austin) 436, , Japan (Tokyo) 890, , United States (Chicago) 1,027, , Chile (Santiago) 16, , Norway (Oslo) 672, , Singapore (Singapore) 300, , Canada (Toronto) 785, , Mexico (Mexico City) 21, , France (Paris) 394, , Switzerland (Zürich) 353, , Includes Active & Passive Investors 362, , ,079 Includes Active & Passive Investors 312, , ,164

4 TOP SELLERS TOP BUYERS TOP HOLDERS Flow of Funds: Top Active & Passive Holders, Buyers & Sellers Firm Country Style Turnover Equity Assets Value Change % Portfolio % Portfolio Chg BlackRock Fund Advisors P United States Index Low 1,864, , % 3.5% The Vanguard Group, Inc. P United States Index Low 2,715, , % 2.2% Aberdeen Asset Managers, LTD (U.K.) United Kingdom Growth Low 99, , , % 15.9% Capital World Investors (U.S.) United States Value Low 671, , % 7.3% Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. (U.S.) P United States Value Low 394, , % -2.0% Norges Bank Investment Management (Norway) SWF Norway Value Low 634, , % 0.1% Caixa de Previdencia dos Funcionarios do Banco do Bras Brazil Specialty Low n/a 8, n/a 0.4% Capital Research Global Investors (U.S.) United States GARP Low 458, , % 13.5% Dodge & Cox United States Value Low 183, , , % 20.9% OppenheimerFunds, Inc United States Growth Medium 161, , % -1.2% Lazard Asset Management, LLC (U.S.) United States Value Medium 93, , % -3.4% APG Asset Management N.V. Netherlands Yield Low 163, , % 1.5% BlackRock Investment Management (U.K.), LTD United Kingdom Growth Low 367, , % -1.9% Fidelity Management & Research Company United States Growth Low 902, , % -7.4% Sociedad Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones y Ces Colombia Value Low n/a 4, n/a 0.0% Vontobel Asset Management, Inc. (U.S.) United States Growth Low 27, , % 2.4% Impulsora de Fondos Banamex, S.A. de C.V., Sociedad Op Mexico Growth Medium 5, , % 8.5% Harding Loevner, L.P. United States GARP Low 35, , % 0.4% T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. United States Growth Low 638, , % -8.7% Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones y Cesantía Pro Colombia Value Low 3, , % 0.0% 175, ,443.9 Firm Country Style Turnover Equity Assets Value Change % Portfolio % Portfolio Chg Aberdeen Asset Managers, LTD (U.K.) United Kingdom Growth Low 99, , , % 15.9% Dodge & Cox United States Value Low 183, , , % 20.9% BlackRock Fund Advisors P United States Index Low 1,864, , % 3.5% Tiger Global Management, LLC United States Alternative High 14, , % 829.0% Capital Research Global Investors (U.S.) United States GARP Low 458, , % 13.5% Capital World Investors (U.S.) United States Value Low 671, , % 7.3% The Vanguard Group, Inc. P United States Index Low 2,715, , % 2.2% Truxt Investimentos, LTDA Brazil Alternative Unknown % Buy-in CSHG Clique Fundo de Investimento em Ações Brazil Value Medium % 125.2% Lone Pine Capital, LLC (U.S.) United States Alternative Very High 22, % 84.8% Arrowstreet Capital, L.P. P United States Deep Value Very High 48, , % 30.3% Boston Partners Global Investor, Inc. United States Value Medium 85, % 139.0% Impulsora de Fondos Banamex, S.A. de C.V., Sociedad Op Mexico Growth Medium 5, , % 8.5% Mondrian Investment Partners, LTD United Kingdom Value Low 22, , % 21.8% American Century Investment Management, Inc. United States Growth Medium 111, % 80.5% J.P. Morgan Asset Management (UK), LTD United Kingdom Growth Medium 113, , % 6.9% Kapitalo Investimentos, LTDA Brazil Alternative High % 62.7% Waddell & Reed Investment Management Company United States Agg. Growth Medium 55, % 38.4% Investis Asset Management, S.A., Sociedad Gerente de F Argentina Growth Very High % 69.3% Goldman Sachs Asset Management International United Kingdom Growth Medium 17, , % 21.8% 111, ,241.9 Firm Country Style Turnover Equity Assets Value Change % Portfolio % Portfolio Chg Aberdeen Asset Management, Inc. (U.S.) United States Growth Medium 5, , % -96.9% Parametric Portfolio Associates, LLC P United States GARP Medium 97, , % -26.6% Fidelity Management & Research Company United States Growth Low 902, , % -7.4% First Eagle Investment Management, LLC United States Value Low 76, , % -16.4% T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. United States Growth Low 638, , % -8.7% OFI Global Institutional, Inc. United States Value Medium 3, % -85.7% Brandes Investment Partners, L.P. United States Deep Value Low 16, , % -8.5% Balyasny Asset Management, L.P. (U.S.) United States Alternative Very High 22, % -95.4% Silchester International Investors, LLP United Kingdom Value Low 21, % -34.6% Pragma Gestão de Patrimônio, LTDA Brazil Value Medium % -49.1% Lazard Asset Management, LLC (U.S.) United States Value Medium 93, , % -3.4% Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. (U.S.) P United States Value Low 394, , % -2.0% Acadian Asset Management, LLC P United States Deep Value Medium 36, , % -10.8% BB Gestão de Recursos DTVM S.A. Brazil Growth Low 2, , % -6.1% Genesis Investment Management, LLP United Kingdom Growth Low 26, , % -4.5% Manning & Napier Advisors, LLC United States Value Medium 14, % -25.1% Dynamo Administração de Recursos, LTDA Brazil Alternative Medium n/a 1, n/a -7.3% Coronation Asset Management Pty., LTD South Africa Value Medium 17, % -15.0% Oxford Asset Management, LLP P United Kingdom Alternative Very High 4, % -56.6% Weston Presidio United States Venture CapiUnknown % -76.3% Includes Investors with EUM greater than $100M. 43, ,620.8 SWF - Sovereign Wealth Fund; HF - Hedge Fund/Alternative; P - Passive Investor

5 Flow of Funds: > Visit Ipreoink.com for more regional flow of funds reports and other insightful articles ABOUT IPREO We work as an extension of our clients' Investor Relations team Ipreo is a leading global provider of financial services technology, data and analytics. We support all participants in the capitalraising process including banks, public and private companies, institutional and individual investors, as well as research, asset management and wealth management firms. Our extensive suite of investor relations services provides our corporate clients with unparalleled cross-asset class surveillance, investor targeting, buy-side perception studies, transaction analysis and predictive analytics. Additionally, Ipreo s BD Corporate IR workflow platform offers the most accurate and comprehensive database covering global institutional contacts, profiles, and ownership data. Our critical insights and flexible solutions help our clients run more effective investor relations programs. Ipreo is private-equity held by Blackstone and Goldman Sachs Merchant Banking Division, and as more than 1,000 employees, supporting clients in every major financial hub around the world. GET IN TOUCH Tel: +44 (0) or us at callmenowir@ipreo.com