Investment: The Changing Nature of Markets

Transcription

1 Investment: The Changing Nature of Markets Dr Mike McCorry CIO, BlackRock Australia Convention 2014 For Financial Advisers Use Only

2 The Changing Nature of Markets Some thoughts: 1. Get used to changing & evolving markets as 2014 will continue the themes Need to adapt portfolios to seek prevailing opportunities and protect against evolving risks Macro Outlook: Lower for Longer Macro backdrop should look somewhat similar to 2013 Expect global economy to continue to gradually recover, led by the US with Europe emerging from recession Low growth & low inflation expectations means global CB policy will still remain supportive Expect lower returns from equities, bond yields to gradually move higher, and volatility around policy decisions to increase 3. Regulatory landscape has changed dramatically since 2008, now in implementation phase: Global: Basel III, Dodd-Frank, FATCA Local: FOFA, MySuper, ASIC RG240, Portfolio Holdings Disclosures 4. Portfolio implications Seek additional sources of return, think differently about fixed income, & continue to diversify For Financial Advisers Use Only 2

3 Important Information Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN , AFS Licence BlackRock, its officers and employees believe that the information in this document is correct at the time of compilation, but no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors or omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers and employees. This document contains general information only and does not take into account an individual's circumstances and consideration should be given to talking to a financial or other professional adviser before making an investment decision. This document has been prepared for information and educational purposes only. Securities referred to in this document are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation or financial product advice. No guarantee as to the capital value of investments in the fund nor future returns is made by BlackRock or any company in the BlackRock group. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document is intended strictly for use by financial advisers and institutional / professional investors only. Recipients of this document must not distribute copies of the document to third parties. BlackRock is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. For Financial Advisers Use Only 3

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5 The changing nature of markets Emilio Gonzalez, Chief Executive Officer

6 First Principle The only thing that is constant is change - Greek Philosopher: Heraclitus 2

7 Second Principle Return is a function of risk 3

8 5yr % pa Asset class returns over the 3 decades (5 year average % pa) 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 1980s 1990s 2000s Australian Equities Intl Equities (unhedged) A-REITS Aus FI Intl FI (hedged) Cash 60/40 Fund 4

9 5 yr % pa Asset class returns excess cash (5 year average % pa) 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% % 1980s 1990s 2000s Australian Equities Intl Equities (unhedged) A-REITS Aus FI Intl FI (hedged) Cash 60/40 Fund 5

10 Return above cash per unit of risk Asset class return excess cash risk adjusted over 3 decades s 1990s 2000s Australian Equities Intl Equities (unhedged) A-REITS Aus FI Intl FI (hedged) Cash 60/40 Fund 6

11 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by BT Investment Management (Fund Services) Limited (BTIM) ABN , AFSL No for the exclusive use of advisers. It is not to be published, or otherwise made available to any other persons, including retail clients. The information in this presentation is for general information only. Every effort has been made to ensure that the information is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described. This presentation may contain material provided directly by third parties and is believed to be accurate at its issue date. However, it should not be considered a comprehensive statement on any matter nor relied upon as such. While such material is published with necessary permission, neither BTIM nor any other company in the Westpac Group of companies accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of this information or otherwise endorses or accepts any responsibility for this information. Except where contrary to law, BTIM intends by this notice to exclude liability for this material. This presentation has been prepared without taking into account any recipient s personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Furthermore, it is not intended to be relied upon by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice. Because of this, before acting on this information, recipients should seek independent financial and taxation advice to determine its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. BTIM does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained in this presentation. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BTIM or any other company in the Westpac Group of companies does not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise noted, BTIM is the source of all charts. Total returns are calculated using exit prices, taking into account management costs of the fund(s) and assuming reinvestment of distributions (which may include net realised capital gains from the sale of assets of the fund(s)). No reduction is made to the unit price (or performance) to allow for tax that may pay as an investor, other than withholding tax on foreign income (if any). Certain other fees such as contribution fees or withdrawal fees (if any) are not taken into account. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held. No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author. For more information, please call BT IM Customer Relations on :00am to 6:30pm (Sydney time). BT is a registered trade mark of BT Financial Group Pty Ltd and is used under licence. 7