Market Insight. Friday, 20 May, 2016

Transcription

1 Mar-15 Apr-15 May- Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Market Insight Friday, 20 May, /03/2013(031743) Major Highlights UEM Sunrise expects contribution from Melia Residences in Q4 Aeon allocates RM650m capex UMW sets RM750m as capex for aviation tie-up with Rolls- Royce Tanjung Offshore sues ex-directors Matrix Concepts posts net profit of RM47.97m No decision yet on PLUS toll hikes Bursa Malaysia Bursa Malaysia Close Change +/- Change % FBMKLCI 1, FBMEMAS 11, FBM100 11, FBMEMAS Shariah 11, FBM Hijrah Shariah 13, Volume (mn) 1, Value (RMmn) 1, FBMKLCI YTD Chg Scoreboard Close Change+/- (+/- %) Gainers Losers Unchanged Regional Indices Close Change (+/-) Change (+/- %) YTD Chg (%) DJIA 17, NASDAQ 4, S&P 500 2, FTSE 100 6, Nikkei , HSI 19, SHCOMP 2, KOSPI 1, TWSE 8, STI 2, JCI 4, SET 1, PSEi 7, Market Valuation (PER) FY16 FY17 5Y Average FBMKLCI SHCOMP HSI JCI SET STI PSEi The Research Team bimbresearch@bimbsec.com.my Local & Global Economic News Ringgit Ends Lower Against US Dollar Bank Negara retains OPR at 3.25% US economic data point to Q2 GDP rebound Oil down over 2% as dollar soars on US rate hike fears Indonesia c.bank holds rates, trims 2016 growth forecast KLCI Performance KLCI Year-End Target: 1,780 points Sector Indices Close Change+/- (+/- %) Industrial 3, Consumer Industrial Products Construction Finance 14, Property 1, Plantation 7, Technology KLCI Futures Contracts May-16 Jun-16 High 1, , Low 1, , Last 1, , Volume 6, Commodities (Most Recent Close) Close Change +/- Change % Brent Crude (USD/bbl) WTI Crude (USD/bbl) Gold (USD/ounce) 1, CPO (RM/MT) 2, SMR 20 (sen/kg) Latex (sen/kg) Soybean Oil Forex (per USD1) Close Change +/- Change % MYR JPY EUR SGD BIMB Securities 1

2 Major Rates KLIBOR 3-mth 3.67% KLIBOR 6-mth 3.79% KLIBOR 12-mth 3.87% 5-yr MGS 3.70% 10-yr MGS 4.11% Active Stock Close Change+/- (+/- %) Vivocom International Airasia X Bhd Airasia Bhd Malayan Banking Bhd CIMB Group Holdings Daily Participation Participation (%) Bought (RMm) Sold (RMm) Net (RMm) Local Institution Local Retail Foreign Total , , Top Gainers Close Change+/- (+/- %) British American Scientex Bhd Ajinomoto Malaysia Carlsberg Brewery Nestle (Malaysia) Top Losers Close Change+/- (+/- %) Aturmaju Resources Genting Bhd Malayan Banking Bhd UMW Holdings Bhd Ta Ann Holdings

3 LOCAL CORPORATE NEWS UEM Sunrise expects contribution from Melia Residences in Q4 Iskandar Puteri, Johor: Melia Residences, a freehold strata landed housing project in Gerbang Nusajaya, is expected to start contributing to the bottom line of UEM Sunrise Bhd in the fourth quarter of this year. Chief operating officer, commercial, Raymond Cheah said that the first and second phases of 206 units, as well as 51% of 160 units in the third, had already been taken up. (Source: StarBiz) Aeon allocates RM650m capex KUALA LUMPUR: Aeon Co. (M) Bhd is allocating RM650m of capital expenditures for its financial year This includes new stores and refurbishments of present ones such as those in Mid Valley. The company which is the biggest public listed retailer in Malaysia said it will use both internal and external funds for this allocation. (Source: StarBiz) UMW sets RM750m as capex for aviation tie-up with Rolls-Royce UMW Holdings Bhd, through its unit UMW Aerospace Sdn Bhd, has allocated RM750m for capital expenditure over the next two-and-a-half years. President/Group Chief Executive Officer Badrul Feisal Abdul Rahim said the funds would come from external and internal sources to undertake the company's expansion into the aviation industry. UMW Aerospace Sdn Bhd had also identified 12 hectares of land in Serendah, Selangor, for a manufacturing plant to produce fan cases for Rolls- Royce's Trent 1000 and Trent 7000 aero engines. (Source: StarBiz) Tanjung Offshore sues ex-directors Oil and gas service provider Tanjung Offshore Bhd (TOB) has filed a civil suit against ex-directors Datuk Harzani Azmi and Tan Wee Koh as well as Al-Maurid Resources Sdn Bhd, for their involvement in purchase of a 49% stake in Gas Generators (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (Gastec) three years ago. In its suit, TOB is claiming, among others, damages of RM20m and costs plus interest while trying to recover funds owing to the company. TOB stated in its claim that the defendants have committed, among others, a breach of fiduciary duties, breach of trust and conspiracy to injure the company. (Source: TheSunDaily) Matrix Concepts posts net profit of RM47.97m Matrix Concepts Holdings Bhd posted a net profit of RM47.97m and revenue of RM211.28m for the three months ended March 31, The property developer declared a fifth interim dividend of 4.40 sen per share that will go ex on June 15, and be payable on July 1. The group s unbilled sales stood at RM621.4m as at March 31, 2016 to be recognised until (Source: TheSunDaily) No decision yet on PLUS toll hikes The government has not decided on whether PLUS Malaysia Bhd will be allowed to increase toll fares for its highways, which are due this year. PLUS is entitled to increase toll fare by 5% every three years from 2016 until the end of its concession agreement in (Source: TheSunDaily) 3

4 LOCAL AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC NEWS Ringgit Ends Lower Against US Dollar The ringgit ended lower against the US dollar today as investors were cautiously awaiting the outcome of Bank Negara Malaysia's Monetary Policy Committee meeting today. A drop in crude oil prices and an imminent hike in US interest rates in June also weighed on sentiment for the ringgit and other emerging currencies, said a dealer. At 5pm, the local unit was quoted at /0830 against the greenback from /0520 on Wednesday. Brent crude futures fell below US$48 per barrel on Thursday on rising investories. The local unit was traded lower against other currencies. It fell against the Singapore dollar to /9632 from Wednesday's /9433 and depreciated against the Euro to /5832 from /5646 yesterday. The ringgit declined against the Yen to /7098 from /6008 on Wednesday and eased against the British pound to /9812 from yesterday's /8426. (Source: Bernama) Bank Negara retains OPR at 3.25% Bank Negara has decided to keep the benchmark overnight policy rate (OPR), to which commercial banks based their deposit and lending rates, at 3.25%. The move was not unexpected with almost all economists surveyed expecting the central bank to maintain the benchmark interest rate. (Source: StarBiz) US economic data point to Q2 GDP rebound The number of Americans filing for unemployment aid fell from a 14-month high last week, the latest sign the economy was picking up speed in the Q2 and likely would be healthy enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June. The economic outlook got a further boost showing a gauge of future activity jumped in April. The reports followed recent upbeat data on retail sales, home building and industrial production. Minutes from the Fed's April policy meeting, published on Wednesday, showed most officials considered it appropriate to raise rates next month if data continued to point to an improvement in second-quarter growth. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade. (Source: Reuters) Oil down over 2% as dollar soars on US rate hike fears Crude oil prices fell more than 2% on Thursday as the dollar's surge on US rate hike expectations drove players from the oil market. Fear that the US Federal Reserve may raise rates by next month prompted investors to cash out of long positions in Brent and US crude's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures that rallied earlier in the week on oil supply outages. Petroleum prices are under selling pressure as part of a wider risk-off trade flow across a wider range of commodities as the US dollar index has extended its recent rally. The dollar index, measured against a basket of currencies, hit a near 2-month high, furthering its gains from the previous session that made the greenback-denonimated oil less attractive to holders of the euro, among others. (Source: TheEdge) Indonesia c.bank holds rates, trims 2016 growth forecast Indonesia's central bank kept its main policy rates steady, as expected, and trimmed its projection for economic growth this year after the Q1 number was below forecasts. Bank Indonesia (BI) left its current and future benchmark rates at 6.75% and 5.50%, respectively. The central bank trimmed its growth forecast for this year to 5.0% 5.4% from 5.2% 5.6%. Annual growth in the Q1 was 4.92%, lower than BI's and markets' expectation of 5.1%. In 2015, Indonesia had growth of 4.8%, the lowest level in 6 years. BI started an easing cycle early this year with 3 rate cuts totalling 75 basis points (bps) to try to prop up economic growth. The central bank has also reduced banks' reserve requirement ratio to effectively inject money into the financial system. (Source: TheEdge) 4

5 ECONOMIC CALENDAR Date Time Country Event Survey Actual Prior Revised 05/20/ :00 JN Nationwide Dept Sales YoY Apr % -- 05/20/ :00 JN Tokyo Dept Store Sales YoY Apr % -- 05/20/ :00 GE PPI MoM Apr 0.10% % -- 05/20/ :00 GE PPI YoY Apr -3.00% % -- 05/20/ :00 JN Convenience Store Sales YoY Apr % -- 05/20/ :00 EC ECB Current Account SA Mar b -- 05/20/ :00 EC Current Account NSA Mar b -- 05/20/ :00 RU Money Supply Narrow Def 13-May t -- 05/20/ :30 IT Current Account Balance Mar m -- 05/20/ :00 IT Istat Presents 2016 Annual Report 05/20/ :00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders May /20/ :00 UK CBI Trends Selling Prices May /20/ :30 CA Retail Sales MoM Mar -0.60% % -- 05/20/ :30 CA Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Mar -0.40% % -- 05/20/ :30 CA CPI NSA MoM Apr 0.30% % -- 05/20/ :30 CA CPI YoY Apr 1.70% % -- 05/20/ :30 CA Consumer Price Index Apr /20/ :30 CA CPI Core MoM Apr 0.10% % -- 05/20/ :30 CA CPI Core YoY Apr 2.00% % -- 05/20/ :30 CA CPI SA MoM Apr 0.20% % -- 05/20/ :30 CA CPI Core SA MoM Apr 0.10% % -- 05/20/ :00 US Existing Home Sales Apr 5.40m m -- 05/20/ :00 US Existing Home Sales MoM Apr 1.30% % -- 05/20/ /23 RU PPI MoM Apr 2.00% % -- 05/20/ /23 RU PPI YoY Apr 0.40% % -- 05/23/ :50 JN Trade Balance Apr 530.0b b 754.2b 05/23/ :50 JN Trade Balance Adjusted Apr 302.5b b -- 05/23/ :50 JN Exports YoY Apr /23/ :50 JN Imports YoY Apr /23/ :30 JN All Industry Activity Index MoM Mar 0.70% % -- 05/23/ :00 JN Supermarket Sales YoY Apr % -- 05/23/ :00 JN Leading Index CI Mar F /23/ :00 JN Coincident Index Mar F /23/ :00 FR Markit France Manufacturing PMI May P /23/ :00 FR Markit France Services PMI May P /23/ :00 FR Markit France Composite PMI May P /23/ :30 GE Markit/BME Germany Manufac PMI May P /23/ :30 GE Markit Germany Services PMI May P /23/ :30 GE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI May P /23/ :00 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May P /23/ :00 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI May P /23/ :00 EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI May P /23/ :00 RU Unemployment Rate Apr 6.00% % -- 05/23/ :00 RU Real Disposable Income Apr -1.60% % -- 05/23/ :00 RU Real Wages YoY Apr -0.70% % 1.60% 05/23/ :00 RU Retail Sales Real MoM Apr -1.60% % -- 05/23/ :00 RU Retail Sales Real YoY Apr -5.00% % -- 05/23/ :45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI May P /23/ :00 EC Consumer Confidence May A /24/ :00 JN Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg May P /24/ :00 GE Private Consumption QoQ 1Q 0.50% % -- 05/24/ :00 GE Government Spending QoQ 1Q 1.00% % -- Source: Bloomberg, BIMB Securities 5

6 Stocks Closing Price PIVOT POINT ANALYSIS Pivot S3 S2 S1 Point R1 R2 R3 Est. Weighting. FBMKLCI Index n.a. FBM Hijrah Shariah n.a. Autos APM Automotive % Delloyd Ventures n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % MBM Resources % Tan Chong % UMW % Building Materials Ann Joo Resource % Alum Co of Malay % Choo Bee Metal % CSC Steel % Eksons Corp % Engtex Group % Goh Ban Huat n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Hiap Teck % Jaks Resources % Java n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Kim Hin Ind % Kinsteel % Lafarge M Cement % Lion Corp % Lion Industries % Malaysia Smelting % Masteel % Melewar Ind % MTD ACPI % Pantech % Perwaja % Press Metal % Southern Steel n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Tasek % Tong Herr n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Conglomerates Cahya Mata Sarawak % Lion Diversified % Hap Seng Cons % MMC % Sime Darby % YTL Corp % Construction AZRB % Ekovest % Fajar Baru % Favelle Favco % Gamuda % Hock Seng Lee % IJM Corp % Kimlun % KKB Engineer % MRCB % 6

7 Stocks Closing Price S3 S2 S1 Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 Est. Weighting Mudajaya % Muhibbah % Naim Hold % Sunway Hldgs % TRC Synergy % TSR Capital Bhd % Zelan % Consumer/Retail Aeon Co (M) % Ajinomoto % Apollo Food % Bonia % CI Holdings % Cocoaland % Dutch Lady % Guan Chong % Hai-O Ent % Hovid % Hup seng Inds % K-Star Sports % Multi Sports n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Padini % Parkson Holdings % Pelikan International % Poh Kong n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % QL Resources % Silver Bird n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Three-A Resource % Xingquan Int l % Yee Lee Corp % Zhulian % Education HELP Int l n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Masterskill n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % SEG Int l % Finance BIMB Hold % Syarikat Takaful % Healthcare Apex Healthcare n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % CCM Duopharma % KPJ Healthcare % Faber Group n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Manufacturing CBIP % Chin Well % Daibochi Plastic % Evergreen Fibre % George Kent % Guh Holdings % Hil Industries % Hong Leong Ind % 7

8 Stocks Closing Price S3 S2 S1 Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 Est. Weighting KYM Hldgs Bhd n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % MWE Hold % Muda Hold % NTPM Hold % Nylex Malaysia % Perstima % Scientex % Sino Hua-an % SLP Resources % Wellcall % Media Media Chinese % Star Publication % Utusan Melayu n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Oil & Gas Alam Maritim % Daya Materials % Dayang Ent % Deleum % Dialog group % ESSO Malaysia % KNM Group % MMHE % Perisai Petroleum % Petra Energy % Pet Chem % Pet Dag % Pet Gas % Ramunia Hold % SAAG Cons. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Sapurakencana % Scomi Eng % Scomi Group % Shell Refining % Tanjung Offshore % Wah Seong % Petra Perdana n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Plantation Batu Kawan % BLD Plantation % Cepat Wawasan % Genting Plant % Golden Land % Gopeng % Hap Seng Plant % IJM Plant % Inch Ken Kajang n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % IOI % Keck Seng Malay % Kim Loong % Kretam Holdings % KLK % Kulim Malaysia % Rimbunan Sawit % 8

9 Stocks Closing Price S3 S2 S1 Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 Est. Weighting Riverview Rubber n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Sarawak Plant % TDM % TH Plant % Tradewinds Plant n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % United Plant % Power TNB % YTL Power % Property A & M Realty % Am Corp Prop % Symphony Life Bh % Crescendo Corp n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Daiman Develop % Damansara Realty % Dijaya n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Dutaland % E&O % Global Oriental % Glomac % Hunza Properties n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % IJM Land n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Ivory Properties % KLCC Property n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % KSL Hold % Kump Hartanah n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Kump Perangsang % LBS Bina Group % Magna Prima % Mah Sing % Malton % MK Land % Nadayu n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Plenitude % Selangor Prop % Selangor Dredging % SP Setia % Sunway Bhd % Suria Capital % Talam Corp n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Tebrau Teguh n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % UEM Land n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % WCT n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Wing Tai % YNH Property % YTL Land & Dev % Rubber Glove Adventa n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Hartalega % Kossan % Latexx Partners n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Rubberex % Supermax Corp % 9

10 Stocks Closing Price S3 S2 S1 Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 Est. Weighting Top Glove % Technology Compugates % D&O Green Tech % ETI Tech n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Formis Resources n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Formosa Prosonic % Frontken % Globetronics % JCY Int l % Key Asic % MPI % Notion V-Tec % Panasonic Man % Supportive n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Symphony House n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Uchi Tech Bhd % Unisem % VS Industry % Telcos Axiata Group % DiGi.Com % Green Packet % Maxis % Telekom Malaysia % Time Dotcom % Timber Jaya Tiasa % Subur Tiasa n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % WTK % Transport/Logistics Bintulu Port n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Airasia % Century Logistic % Cycle & Carriage % Hubline % Integrated Log % Integrax n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Konsortium n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Maybulk % MISC % NCB Hold n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Scomi Energy Ser % Water & Infrastructure PBA Hold % Puncak Niaga % Salcon % Taliworks Corp n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Lingkaran Trans % Protasco % 10

11 Stocks Closing Price S3 S2 S1 Pivot Point R1 R2 R3 Est. Weighting Others Ancom % Asia File bhd n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Boustead Heavy % Eden Inc % Fima Corp % Kumpulan FIMA % KUB Malaysia % Pie Industrial % Southern Acids n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Mega First % Coastal Contract % Time Engineering n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a % Sealink Int'l % Shin Yang % Jobstreet Corp % Myeg Services % Pos Malaysia % Picorp % Lion Forest % Note: R S Est. Weight = Resistance = Support = Based on FBMah Mkt. Cap 11

12 DEFINITION OF RATINGS BIMB Securities uses the following rating system: STOCK RECOMMENDATION BUY Total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) is expected to exceed 10% in the next 12 months. TRADING BUY Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain. HOLD Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months TAKE PROFIT Target price has been attained. Fundamentals remain intact. Look to accumulate at lower levels. TRADING SELL Share price may fall by more than 15% in the next 3 months. SELL Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months. NOT RATED Stock is not within regular research coverage. SECTOR RECOMMENDATION OVERWEIGHT The Industry as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months NEUTRAL The Industry as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT The Industry as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months Applicability of ratings The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies. Disclaimer The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of BIMB Securities Sdn Bhd may from time to time have a position in or either the securities mentioned herein. Members of the BIMB Group and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgements as of this date and are subject to change without notice. BIMB Securities Sdn Bhd accepts no liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from use of this report. Published by BIMB SECURITIES SB ( X) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Level 32, Menara Multi Purpose, Capital Square, No. 8 Jalan Munshi Abdullah, Kuala Lumpur Tel: Fax: Thong Pak Leng 12