Treasury Strategies Quarterly Corporate Cash Briefing for 4Q 2017

Transcription

1 Treasury Strategies Quarterly Corporate Cash Briefing for 4Q 2017 October 12, Treasury Strategies,

2 Agenda Corporate Cash Levels Emerging Topic on Payment Controls and Payment Fraud Panelist Discussion Central Banks in 2017 Updates on MMF Reform (US, Europe) LIBOR Update Looking forward to

3 Corporate Cash Levels

4 Corporate Cash Levels US Corporate Cash UK Corporate Cash Corporate Cash ($T) $2.3T Corporate Cash ( T) T Source: Federal Reserve, Treasury Strategies Eurozone Corporate Cash Source: UK Office for National Statistics, Treasury Strategies Japan Corporate Cash Corporate Cash ( T) T 267T Corporate Cash ( T) Source: European Central Bank, Treasury Strategies Source: Bank of Japan, Treasury Strategies 4

5 Corporate Cash Levels US Corporate Cash UK Corporate Cash Corporate Cash ($T) $2.3T R² = 0.96 Slope = $19.2B/Q Corporate Cash ( T) T R² = 0.96 Slope = 7.1B/Q Source: Federal Reserve, Treasury Strategies Eurozone Corporate Cash Source: UK Office for National Statistics, Treasury Strategies Japan Corporate Cash Corporate Cash ( T) R² = 0.99 Slope = 21.1B/Q T 267T Corporate Cash ( T) R² = Slope = 1.28T/Q Source: European Central Bank, Treasury Strategies Source: Bank of Japan, Treasury Strategies 5

6 Corporate Cash as % GDP by Region Country/Region June 2000 June 2017 United States 9% 12% Eurozone 13% 23%* United Kingdom 22% 36% Japan 34% 49% *Eurozone corporate cash data lags other regions so data reflects March 2017 Source: Treasury Strategies estimate 6

7 Corporate Cash Relative to Nominal GDP US Corporate Cash relative to US Nominal GDP UK Corporate Cash relative to UK Nominal GDP US Corporate Cash ($T) R² = 0.96 Slope = $134B/$T UK Corporate Cash ( T) R² = Slope = 476B/ T US GDP ($T) UK GDP ( T) EU Corporate Cash relative to EU Nominal GDP Japan Corporate Cash relative to Japan Nominal GDP EU Corporate Cash ( T) R² = 0.95 Slope = 414B/ T Japan Corporate Cash ( T) R² = 0.08 Slope = 442B/ T EU GDP ( T) Japan GDP ( T) 7

8 Reserve Balances Bank Reserve Balances at the US Federal Reserve Bank Reserve Balances at the BOE Bank Reserve Balance at the Fed ($B) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, $2.21T 257B Bank Reserve Balance at the BOE ( B) Source: Federal Reserve, Treasury Strategies Bank Reserve Balances at the ECB Source: Bank of England, Treasury Strategies Bank Reserve Balances at the BOJ Bank Reserve Balance at the ECB ( B) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, T Bank Reserve Balance at the BOJ ( T) T Source: European Central Bank, Treasury Strategies Source: Bank of Japan, Treasury Strategies 8

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10 Payment Controls and Payments Fraud

11 How Prevalent is this Threat? Where are Treasuries vulnerable? Government officials and security experts have long warned of the possibility of cyber disruptions in the financial system and other essential services and utilities. Bangladesh Central Bank Found $100 Million Missing After a Weekend Break Wall Street Journal Xoom Corp. CFO resigns after fraudsters steal $30.8M in corporate cash ( the ) - San Francisco Business Times It s not a question of If you will be impacted. It s a question of how significant an impact it will be. 11

12 Types of Payment Fraud Check fraud Altered checks Forgeries Counterfeit checks Remotely-created checks Lockbox scam Etc. Electronic fraud (Unauthorized ACH/Wire) Corporate account takeover Check conversion counterfeits Social engineering Phishing/Spear Phishing Keystroke software Password engineering (birthdays, Fido1234) Etc. Credit Card & P-card 12

13 What To Do Identify and Understand - Risk Assessment Improve Control Optimization Manage Cyber Security Policies, Procedures, Insurance, Eliminate Monitor Continuous Assessment and Scenario Testing Communicate and Educate 13

14 Panelist Discussion

15 Meet Our Speakers Tony Carfang Managing Director Susan Hill Senior Portfolio Manager Kevin Ruiz Principal Michelle Price Associate Policy and Technical Director +44 (0) Roger Merritt Managing Director

16 About Treasury Strategies Treasury Strategies,, is the leading treasury consulting firm. Armed with decades of experience, we ve developed solutions and delivered insights on leading practices, treasury operations, technology, and risk management for hundreds of companies around the globe. We serve corporate treasurers, their financial services providers and technology providers for the complete 360 view of of treasury. Solutions Global Cash and Liquidity Management Cash Forecasting Financial Risk Management Treasury Organization Payments Strategy Leading Practices Review and Benchmarking RFP Support for Banking Services Technology Business Requirements and Gap Analysis Technology Optimization and Updates Technology Selection Technology Implementation and Connectivity Treasury Change Management and Resource Support Connect With Us

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