Note: Until this document is complete, we have attached the presentation slides from the AAII National Conference to this white paper abstract.
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1 Note: Until this document is complete, we have attached the presentation slides from the AAII National Conference to this white paper abstract. 1
2 Conquering the Seven Faces of Risk Originally Presented to: AAII National Conference Las Vegas, Nov 2015 By Scott Juds, President & CEO, SumGrowth Strategies, Seattle, WA 2
3 The Objective 3
4 The Objective 4
5 The Objective 7x Drawdown Reduction? 5
6 What is Risk? Dictionary Definition: Risk is the probability of portfolio value loss due to market factors. The Seven Faces of Risk From: The Seven Faces of Dr. Lao
7 Risk #1 Not Enough to Retire Failure to Save, Insufficient Returns or Safety 7
8 Risk #1 Not Enough to Retire Failure to Save, Insufficient Returns or Safety Keep Working Until you Drop Or Live in a Shack Eating Beans 8
9 Risk #2 Market Shocks Disasters, Bubbles, Defaults, Policy, Corrections Fukushima - Minor Market Crash - Major April 19,
10 Risk #3 Company Collapse Competition, Corruption, Incompetence, Patents 10
11 Risk #4 Fund Loses Favor Technology Change, Political Winds, Overbought 11
12 Risk #5 Strategy Gets a Flat Tire Hindsight Selection Bias, Lack of Strong Leadership 12
13 Risk #6 Back Testing Deception Random Reversals that Only Hindsight can Avoid Back Testing Performance Forward Walk Performance 13
14 -22 % Risk #7 Strategy Remnant Volatility Sectors, Countries, Commodities are Pretty Bumpy 14
15 The Seven Faces of Risk SUMMARY Risk Type Underlying Causes 1. Company Collapse Competition, Corruption, Incompetence, Patents 2. Market Shocks Disasters, Bubbles, Defaults, Policy, Corrections 3. My Fund Loses Favor Technology Change, Political Winds, Overbought 4. Strategy Gets Flat Tire Hindsight Selection Bias, Lack of Strong Leadership 5. Remnant Fund Volatility Sectors, Countries, Commodities are Pretty Bumpy 6. Backtesting Deception Random Reversals that only Hindsight can Avoid 7. Not Enough to Retire Failure to Save, Insufficient Returns or Safety When Risk is Removed the Upside Dominates! 15
16 When Risk is Removed the Upside Dominates! It s Been Said Before... Warren Buffet s Rules Rule #1 - Never lose money.. Rule #2 - Never forget Rule #1. 16
17 Risk #1 (Solution) Not Enough to Retire No Cash Under a Mattress No Buy & Hold Index Funds No Buy & Hold Bond Funds 17
18 Risk #2 (Solution) Market Shocks Major Market Crash Minor Market Splash Most Drops Snap Back Avoid Locking in Whipsaw Losses - Wait a Bit. Optimize Design Using Matched Filter Theory. 18
19 Risk #2 (Solution) Market Shocks Simply Enable StormGuard 19
20 Risk #3 (Solution) Company Collapse Random Punctuated Events Cannot be Predicted & Avoided They Must be Diversified Away 20
21 Risk #3 (Solution) Company Collapse Mutual Funds ETFs Stock Portfolio 21
22 Risk #4 (Solution) Fund Loses Favor True Sector Rotation... Own Only the Trend Leader 22
23 Risk #5 (Solution) Strategy Gets a Flat Tire We Know How to Play to Win One Must Own Only the Trend Leader. And Eliminate Selection Bias 23
24 Risk #5 (Solution) Strategy Gets a Flat Tire A Strategy-of-Strategies Broadens the Funnel Reduces Hindsight Bias 24
25 Risk #6 (Solution) Back Testing Deception Random Reversals that Only Hindsight can Avoid Back Testing Performance Forward Walk Performance Turn On FWPT, Discover Flaw. 25
26 Risk #6 (Solution) Back Testing Deception Eliminate Culprit, Fix the Problem. Forward-Walk Progressive-Tuning Reveals Problems that Must be Fixed. 26
27 Risk #7 (Solution) Strategy Remnant Volatility Portfolio-of-Strategies 1. Surf First to Capture Returns 2. Diversify to Reduce Volatility 27
28 We Know: L.T. Treasuries Are Negatively Correlated to the S&P 500 Can Improve Final Smoothing 28
29 Risk #7 (Solution) Strategy Remnant Volatility Long-Term Treasuries and the S&P 500 are Negatively Correlated 29
30 The Seven Faces of Risk Summary Risk Type Solutions 1. Not Enough to Retire Use active Strategies. No buy-and-hold. 2. Market Shocks Activate StormGuard. 3. Company Collapse Use diversified mutual funds, ETFs, stock portfolios. 4. My Fund Loses Favor Use True Sector Rotation. Own only the trend leader. 5. Strategy Gets Flat Tire Use a Strategy-of-Strategies to broaden the funnel. 6. Backtesting Deception Enable Forward-Walk Progressive-Tuning. 7. Strategy Remnant Volatility Portfolio of divergent Strategies plus L.T. treasuries. 30
31 High-Performance Low-Drawdown Portfolios Made Easy How Can This Be Easy? 1. We will NOT design any Strategies. 2. We will NOT tweak any parameters. 3. We WILL only assemble existing things. 31
32 High-Performance Low-Drawdown Portfolios Made Easy Here s All You Have To Do 1. Make a Portfolio of Divergent Strategies 2. Use ETFs, Mutual Funds, or Stock Portfolios 3. Use True Sector Rotation and Strategy-of-Strategies 4. Enable StormGuard & Forward-Walk Prog.-Tuning 5. Add a Long-Term Treasury to Smooth it Further 32
33 High-Performance Low-Drawdown Portfolios Made Easy -- Let s Pick Some Good Stuff -- Overall Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Health Strat ETF Metals Energy SOS ETF World Regions SOS ETF Hall of Fame SOS Fid. Hall of Fame L.T. Treasury 33
34 High-Performance Low-Drawdown Portfolios Made Easy Overall Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Health Strat ETF Metals Energy SOS ETF World Regions SOS ETF Hall of Fame SOS Fid. Hall of Fame L.T. Treasury 34
35 High-Performance Low-Drawdown Portfolios Made Easy Overall Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Health Strat ETF Metals Energy SOS ETF World Regions SOS ETF Hall of Fame SOS Fid. Hall of Fame L.T. Treasury 35
36 High-Performance Low-Drawdown Portfolios Made Easy Overall Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Health Strat ETF Metals Energy SOS ETF World Regions SOS ETF Hall of Fame SOS Fid. Hall of Fame L.T. Treasury 36
37 High-Performance Low-Drawdown Portfolios Made Easy Overall Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Health Strat ETF Metals Energy SOS ETF World Regions SOS ETF Hall of Fame SOS Fid. Hall of Fame L.T. Treasury 37
38 High-Performance Low-Drawdown Portfolios Made Easy Overall Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Health Strat ETF Metals Energy SOS ETF World Regions SOS ETF Hall of Fame SOS Fid. Hall of Fame L.T. Treasury 38
39 High-Performance Low-Drawdown Portfolios Made Easy Overall Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Stocks Portfolio Health Strat ETF Metals Energy SOS ETF World Regions SOS ETF Hall of Fame SOS Fid. Hall of Fame L.T. Treasury 39
40 High-Performance Low-Drawdown Portfolios Made Easy 40
41 SectorSurfers Don t Walk on Water 41
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