HORTER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC

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1 HORTER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC Weekly Commentary November 27, 2017 Bond investors should prepare for string of rate hikes in 2018 But fund managers see no reason to panic, unless inflation suddenly takes off Yield-starved investors likely will have more to nibble on now through 2018, as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to introduce between four and five interest-rate hikes over the next 13 months. While the bond markets have been treading through uncharted territory ever since the emergency-reactions to the 2008 financial crisis pushed interest rates to the floor, and piled nearly $5 trillion on the Fed balance sheet, bond experts generally remain cool and collected. Anne Walsh, who oversees $140 billion in bond portfolios as chief investment officer of fixed income at Guggenheim Investments, expects the Fed to hike in December and then hike four times in This isn t Alan Greenspan s yield curve. But she doesn't believe that adds up to an aggressive tightening cycle. "We're not in the camp that says rates will continue climbing across the rate spectrum," she said. "You will not see much change on the longer end of the curve." Most forecasts have the Fed's overnight rate at between 2% and 2.25% a year from now, which is described as "closer to equilibrium," by Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, where he is responsible for $1.7 trillion in fixed-income assets. Click here to read more This Flat Yield Curve Is No Mystery, According to a Fed The gap between short and longer-term interest rates has been narrowing even as the Federal Reserve raises its policy rate, a trend that echoes the so-called flattening of the curve between June 2004 and December Then-Fed Chairman Greenspan called the mid- 2000s episode a conundrum, but the leveling out is no mystery this time around, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco researcher Michael Bauer writes in a note called the Economic Letter. Low inflation and neutral interest rates as well as political uncertainty are all weighing on longer-dated bond yields, keeping them low even as the Fed boosts the cost of borrowing in the near-term, Bauer writes. That s important, because it means that if price pressures pick up quickly, investors could begin to demand better compensation for holding longer-dated securities -- reversing the flattening and potentially dinging stock market valuations, which are based partly on the low level of yields in the bond market. Click here to read more With low inflation now, this flattening of the yield curve may continue. If rates do rise as inflation rises this stock market could get hurt. Drew QUOTE OF THE WEEK Great companies are built on great products. - Elon Musk

2 How can so few stocks control so much of the S&P 500 s results? That means 479 control the performance of the other 50%. Drew

3 Taking a comprehensive look at the overall current stock market Taking a comprehensive look at the overall current stock market, you can see the chart below representing eight major indices and their returns through the week ending November 24, In a truly diversified portfolio, the portfolio s total return is determined by the performance of all of the individual positions in combination not individually. So, understanding the combined overall performance of the indices below, simply average the 8 indices (excluding the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Index) to get a better overall picture of the market. The combined average of all 8 indices is 20.92% year to date. Market Perspectives (through 11/27/2017) 60/40 Allocation: 11.02% YTD (60% S&P 500/40% Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index) S&P 500: 16.24% YTD Barclays Agg: 3.20% YTD Term of the Week: Run Rate The run rate refers to the financial performance of a company based on using current financial information as a predictor of future performance. The run rate functions as an extrapolation of current financial performance and is based on the assumption that current conditions will continue. The run rate can also refer to the average annual dilution from company stock option grants over the most recent three-year period recorded in the annual report.

4 Dow Jones - Week Ending WEEKLY ECONOMIC SUMMARY WEEKLY MARKET SUMMARY Global Equities: Global equity indices were up modestly, amidst light trading due to the US Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P 500 marked Friday's early close with a new record, ending the session above 2,600 for the first time ever. All US equity sectors closed out the week with gains, Technology and Industrial stocks were best performers while Utilities stocks lagged. Emerging markets continued to outperform both Developed International and US stocks, extending their rally for a fourth consecutive week. Fixed Income: The benchmark 10-Year US Treasury Note yield was relatively unchanged at 2.33%. Domestic high yield bonds continued to recover from the mid-november selloff that saw spreads spike nearly 50 basis points from where they began the month. The option-adjusted spread on the Bank of America High Yield US Index eased to 3.70%. Commodities: Oil prices got a boost due to supply concerns after the Keystone pipeline ruptured and spilled over 200,000 gallons of crude oil in South Dakota. The pipeline was shut down and may not restart for several weeks, and South Dakota regulators have suggested a possible license revocation for the pipeline's operator, TransCanada. The news pushed US West Texas Intermediate prices to a two-year high, closing out the week at just under $59 a barrel. US Consumers in focus: The University of Michigan's survey of consumer sentiment rose to 98.5 in November, down from October's decade-high reading of 101.1, but still above consensus estimates of 98. The strong job market and record low unemployment are inspiring consumers with the confidence to increase discretionary spending, the data suggests. Traditional brick-and-mortar retailers, which are being displaced by online retailers, will be in focus as the holiday shopping season officially kicks off. Germany fails to form coalition: Talks between German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, the Free Democratic party, and Green party broke down early in the week, forcing her to turn to the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) to form a coalition government. The SPD will now have to decide whether it will support Merkel's administration or step back and push for fresh elections in Eurozone jobs boom: The positive economic data for the 19- nation Eurozone continues to roll in. The IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' index, which measures services and manufacturing business activity, rose to 57.5 in November from 56 the prior month. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. The data also showed Eurozone hiring during November was at its best pace in seventeen years. Current Model Allocations Last Week s Manager Moves HIM #7 Bought 60% RYMKX on 11/21 HIM #2 Bought 100% Mid-Cap on 11/21 HIM #22 Bought 100% S&P 500 on 11/21; Sold 100% S&P 500 to CASH on 11/24 HIM #14 Sold 50% RYHBX on 11/20; Bought 25% RYHBX on 11/24 HIM #20 Bought 24% JNK and 24% HYG on 11/21; Sold 30% AGG, 10% IEI, 10% SHY and bought 12% ANGL, 12% HYS, 12% PHB and 10% BSJL on 11/22 Low Risk Moderate Risk HIM #7 HIM #2 HIM #1 HIM #3 HIM #20 HIM #19 HIM #23 60% RYMKX/40% intermediate-term treasury bonds 25% municipal bonds/75% municipal bond mutual fund 15% high yield/85% high-yield Mutual fund 43% convertibles /29% dividend equities/14% income funds/ 14% CASH 94% high yield/ 6% CASH 50% MBS/50% real estate mutual fund 100% high yield HIM #2 HIM #9 HIM #8 HIM #22 HIM #14 HIM #10 HIM #15 HIM #11 HIM #21 100% mid-cap 20% long S&P /80% alternative equity mutual fund 100% QQQ 100% CASH 75% long treasury/25% CASH 98% invested, 2% cash 100% invested 85% (17) stocks/15% cash 25% long real estate/75% real estate mutual fund

5 Summary In utilizing an approach that seeks to limit volatility, it is important to keep perspective of the activity in multiple asset classes. At Horter Investment Management we seek to achieve lower risk with higher returns. More specifically, we seek to achieve superior riskadjusted returns over a full market cycle to a traditional 60% equities / 40% bonds asset allocation. We do this by implementing global mandates of several tactical managers within different risk buckets. For those investors who are unwilling to stomach anything more than minimal downside risk, our goal is to provide a satisfying return over a full market cycle compared to the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. At Horter Investment Management we realize how confusing the financial markets can be. It is important to keep our clients upto-date on what it all means, especially with how it relates to our private wealth managers and their models. We are now in year nine of the most recent bull market, one of the longest bull markets in U.S. history. At this late stage of the market cycle, it is extremely common for hedged managers to underperform, as they are seeking to limit risk. While none of us know when a market correction will come, even though the movement and volatility sure are starting to act like a correction, our managers have been hired based on our belief that they can accomplish a satisfying return over a full market cycle, -- while limiting risk in comparison to a traditional asset allocation approach. At Horter we continue to monitor all of the markets and how our managers are actively managing their portfolios. We remind you there are opportunities to consider with all of our managers. Hopefully this recent market commentary is helpful and thanks for your continued trust and loyalty. Chart of the Week: The chart of the week shows how the high yield bond ETF HYG rebounded after touching the 200-day moving average and is now trading back above the 50-day moving average. Investors rushed to the exits in mid-november, selling nearly $4.5 billion in the weekly period of November 8 to November 15th. Buyers quickly stepped back in to scoop up high yield bonds as the effective yield of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index rose to near 6%, suggesting that the rally may still have legs. National Headquarters Seven Gables Road Symmes Township Cincinnati OH P: (513) F: (513) Investment advisory services offered through Horter Investment Management, LLC, a SEC-Registered Investment Advisor. Horter Investment Management does not provide legal or tax advice. Investment Advisor Representatives of Horter Investment Management may only conduct business with residents of the states and jurisdictions in which they are properly registered or exempt from registration requirements. Insurance and annuity products are sold separately. Securities transactions for Horter Investment Management clients are placed through Trust Company of America, TD Ameritrade and Jefferson National Life Insurance Company.