Nimbus 9. Three Months. Year-to- Date
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1 Nimbus 9 QUARTERLY REVIEW High Yield Fund As of September 30, 2017 PORTFOLIO HIGHLIGHTS The portfolio performed in line with the Credit Suisse High Yield Index for the three-month period ended September 30, Relative performance drivers: p Credit selection within energy was the top relative performance contributor. p Security selection in the financials sector also benefited. p Credit selection in retail weighed on results. Additional highlights: p We believe high yield bonds are well positioned from a yield and duration perspective relative to many alternative fixed income sectors due to higher income and less interest rate sensitivity. p While the probability of the risks to the outlook appears minor, we are reminded that credit selection and a long-term investment horizon remain critical. FUND INFORMATION Symbol PRHYX 1 Inception Date of Fund December 31, enchmark Expense Information (as of the most recent Prospectus)* Credit Suisse High Yield Index % 4 Fiscal Year End May Fee 6 Redemption Fee** Assets (all share classes) $9,197,470,020 8 Percent of Portfolio in Cash 4. 9 *Figure is equivalent to the annual Operating Expense ratio. **The redemption fee applies on shares held for 90 days or less. PERFORMANCE (NAV, total return) Three Months Year-to- Date One Year Three Annualized Five Ten Fifteen 30-Day SEC Yield High Yield Fund 1.94% % 7.13% 8.36% 4.54% Credit Suisse High Yield Index J.P. Morgan Global High Yield Index CALENDAR YEAR PERFORMANCE (NAV, total return) Inception Date High Yield Fund Dec % 14.37% % 9.07% % 14.49% Credit Suisse High Yield Index J.P. Morgan Global High Yield Index Current performance may be lower or higher than the quoted past performance, which cannot guarantee future results. Share price, principal value, and return will vary, and you may have a gain or loss when you sell your shares. To obtain the most recent month-end performance or to request a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, fees, expenses, and other information that you should read and consider carefully before investing, please call or visit our website at troweprice.com. return figures include changes in principal value, reinvested dividends, and capital gain distributions. The performance information shown does not reflect the deduction of any redemption fee; if it did, the performance would be lower. Effective April 1, 2016, Credit Suisse changed its methodology for calculating the performance of the Credit Suisse High Yield Index. The data in the table reflects the performance of the index using the new methodology. The bonds in which the fund invests are at a much higher risk of default and tend to be more volatile than higher-rated bonds. Investors should note that if interest rates rise significantly from current levels, total returns will decline and may even turn negative in the short term. High yield bonds carry a greater default risk than higher-rated bonds. Not for use with Individual Investors. 1
2 PERFORMANCE REVIEW According to the Credit Suisse High Yield Index, the high yield market returned 2% for the third quarter, mirroring the prior three months. Gains in July and September flanked a flat August. Intermediate- and longer-term Treasury yields finished the third quarter little changed from where they started the period, while yields of shorter maturities rose. Increased demand for safe-haven securities, largely as a result of growing concerns about the potential for conflict on the Korean peninsula, was offset by a rebound in inflation and the announcement by the Trump administration of its tax reform proposal later in the period. Driven by higher gasoline and shelter costs, the consumer price index rose 0.4% in August, ending a string of lower-than-expected monthly inflation readings. In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, Congress and the president approved a disaster relief package and extended the government borrowing limit for three months. The Federal Reserve left the fed funds target rate unchanged at its two policy meetings during the quarter. Fed officials have maintained their outlook for one more rate hike in Moreover, in October, the central bank will begin unwinding its USD $4.5 trillion balance sheet, a legacy of its massive purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Technical conditions over the quarter were mixed. Flow activity for the overall period was negative. Positive flows to the asset class in July and September were more than offset by heavy redemption activity in August, resulting in a net negative flow of USD $585 million for the third quarter. New issue volume of USD $79.8 billion in the third quarter was broadly in line with the total for the previous three-month period. Refinancing activity continued to represent the largest category of issuance for the quarter and the year to date, tempering net new issuance. activity decreased from the previous quarter and is significantly lower from 3.6% at year-end The J.P. Morgan par-weighted default rate ended September at 1.07%, which is also meaningfully below the historical average of 3.8%. The steep decline year-to-date is due to USD $41.5 billion of debt, which was largely confined to commodity-related sectors, rolling off the first nine months of 2016 compared with only adding USD $10.3 billion year-to-date to the 12-month calculation. Higher-rated bonds and the energy industry outperformed As in the previous quarter, higher-quality bonds outperformed lower qualities in general. In terms of sector-level results, energy produced the strongest gains after it was the only industry to post a loss during the prior three-month period. Credit selection in energy was the top relative performance contributor. The energy sector posted strong gains in July and September, and oil prices surpassed USD $51 per barrel at quarter-end. West Texas Intermediate Crude reached its highest level since April. Oil prices climbed with demand, as Gulf of Mexico oil refineries resumed production after being shut down for several weeks due to Hurricane Harvey. Positions in Frontera Energy and MEG Energy were top relative outperformers. MEG enjoys lower capital costs than many shale producers. It also has solid backing from its equity holders, and an equity raise in January 2017 is providing ample liquidity for the company to grow without increasing gross debt balances. Additionally, the company is likely to make assets sales and use the proceeds to reduce debt. Meaningful contribution from financials Security selection in financials benefited relative performance. Several large European banks rallied over the period and our holdings in UniCredit, arclays, and Credit Agricole contributed to relative performance. Each of these three banks is rated investment-grade at the issuer level. However, our positions are lower on the capital structure with a high yield rating, higher coupon, and generated off-index outperformance. Structural changes have reduced the complexity of the Credit Agricole banking group. The recent acquisition of a leading global asset manager further shifted the bank toward a more balanced asset-gathering model that is less reliant on interest rate improvement to help generate sustainable earnings growth over the medium term. Credit selection in retail holds back gains Credit selection in the retail sector weighed on relative performance, in part, due to the portfolio's investment in UK retailer New Look. The company reported disappointing results for the final quarter of its 2017 fiscal year. The bonds traded down after the issuer revealed meaningfully lower earnings while leverage increased sharply compared with fiscal year We believe the impact of a difficult environment for fashion in the UK has been exacerbated by specific missteps by the retailer. We have decreased exposure to the name. PORTFOLIO POSITIONING AND ACTIVITY Our participation rate in new deals year-to-date is lower than in the prior two years. Notably, we participated in more deals in August when new issue activity surged along with industry outflows, and market participants received more advantageous terms as many new bonds were priced at the wide end of guidance. Then, in September, our participation declined as many deals were able to tighten amid renewed demand. As long-term investors in the asset class, we believe our clients benefit from our consistent adherence to credit analysis and selection, particularly in an environment of increasing downside risks. While relatively unchanged from the prior quarter, the investment team has modestly upgraded the portfolio, beginning at the end of 2016, by rotating out of lower-quality bonds into higher-quality and rated securities. Moreover, the majority of the lower-quality CCC rated bonds we own are more conservatively positioned, evidenced by our lower CCC yield relative to the index. We view our lower-quality allocation as largely mis-rated by the agencies or "single rated bonds in disguise," poised for credit improvements. Central bank policy supports eurozone growth In financials, we have increased exposure throughout the year, most notably through hybrid securities of European banks; the majority of these positions are household names. Eurozone growth continues to impress even as the euro appreciates. European Central ank (EC) bond purchases are also providing regional support, and expectations are for the EC policy to continue to favor caution due to low inflation and currency strength. Reaction to political developments in the region over the quarter, including the German elections and Catalan referendum and subsequent protests, appear to be limited thus far. Risk exposure within energy reduced Within the energy industry, we continued to reduce risk from the previous two quarters. The investment team trimmed names in the services and offshore driller segments as well as low-quality exploration and production (E&P) credits that are more susceptible to lower commodity prices. Proceeds have been redeployed into Not for use with Individual Investors. 2
3 higher quality E&Ps and midstream issuers. If oil prices hold at these levels, we think there will be continued discipline from larger producers, driving our preference for these issuers. In addition, we could see consolidation within the sector. led to favorable returns for our high yield clients over various market cycles. Diversification through bank loans and European high yield Our credit analysts actively evaluate the opportunity set as conditions evolve, including investment ideas that might not fall within the traditional high yield bond universe, looking for the best value for our clients. Floating rate bank loans are the largest off-index allocation and comprise 13% of fund assets. We like loans for their strong risk-adjusted metrics. We believe their senior secured status and a low duration profile can produce less volatile returns compared with high yield bonds. The floating rate feature resets coupons higher as rates increase, a relatively unique feature within fixed income sectors. Today, bank loans yield more than rated fixed rate bonds, making the asset class further compelling. However, leveraged loans underperformed high yield bonds for the quarter, and our allocation detracted. We also believe the European Central ank's path toward normalizing interest rates is likely to be slow, ensuring that a key positive for European high yield remains in place for the foreseeable future. It is also possible that spreads will continue to tighten as the fundamental and technical factors underpinning the asset class should stay supportive. The diversification provided by bank loan and European high yield could counter volatility in the U.S. high yield market. MANAGER'S OUTLOOK We feel unprecedented monetary stimulus and strong economic growth across the globe are market supportive, forming a powerful scenario with only a minor case for derailment. Central bank accommodative policies of recent years are providing liquidity, reducing volatility and suppressing yields. In particular, central banks have pumped a massive supply of liquidity into the system. As a result, spread product appears suspended within a lower risk and lower return environment. From this perspective, macroeconomic developments have certainly influenced the high yield corporate bond market. We believe high yield bonds are well positioned from a yield and duration perspective relative to many alternative fixed income sectors due to higher income and less interest rate sensitivity. Solid corporate fundamentals based on earnings and ready access to capital mean that the default rate will likely remain low into However, valuations are considerably tighter. Today, rated bond coupons are approximately 4., and single credits are 5.. This low-yield below investment-grade backdrop is made possible by the demand for income. We have seen some leveraged buyout activity pricing with 7% coupons where we believe investors were not adequately compensated for the risk. We have passed on those new deals. ecause of the depth and breadth of our research capabilities, we can find opportunities, but in our opinion those are becoming increasingly isolated. Optionality for mergers and acquisition activity and potential tax reforms could prove beneficial. While the probability of the risks to the outlook appears minor and could include surprise central bank action, major geopolitical event(s), and/or trend investors exiting the asset class, we are reminded that credit selection and a long-term investment horizon remain critical. As always, we aim to deliver high current income while seeking to contain volatility inherent in this market. Our team maintains a commitment to credit research and risk-conscious investing that has Not for use with Individual Investors. 3
4 QUARTERLY ATTRIUTION INDUSTRY ATTRIUTION VS. CREDIT SUISSE HIGH YIELD INDEX (TOP AND OTTOM 5 Y TOTAL VALUE ADDED) (3 months ended September 30, 2017) Value Fund Weight (%) enchmark Weight (%) Fund Performance (%) enchmark Performance (%) Sector (bps) Credit (bps) Contribution (bps) Industry classification was determined by T. Rowe Price s high yield industry structure. All numbers are percentages. T. Rowe Price s proprietary attribution model compares the fund s performance and market weights by industry ratings with the benchmark s performance and market weights. Figures are shown gross of fees. Any difference in the total value added and the sum of credit selection and sector selection is referred to as residual. Residual can occur due to position shifts within the portfolio and benchmark both from an issuer and sector perspective and reflects any difference in performance calculation methodology between T. Rowe Price s proprietary attribution model and internal performance tool. CREDIT QUALITY ATTRIUTION VS. CREDIT SUISSE HIGH YIELD INDEX (3 months ended September 30, 2017) Value ank Debt* Energy / & Above Top Five Metals/ Food & Minerals Financial Drug / /CCC Media/T elecom ottom Five Transportation Service Housing Retail Fund Weight (%) enchmark Weight (%) Fund Performance (%) enchmark Performance (%) Sector (bps) Credit (bps) Contribution (bps) *Includes Institutional Floating Rate Fund Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Source of credit quality rating: Moody s Investor Services and Standard and Poor s. Analysis represents the combined performance of the underlying securities held within the given time period relative to its respective broad weighted benchmark as calculated by T. Rowe s proprietary attribution model. Performance for each security is in the currency in which it is issued and, if necessary, is converted using an exchange rate determined by an independent third party. Figures are shown gross of fees. CCC & elow Equities Preferr ed/cvt Pfd/C onvertible TRP ICO Credit Swap Health Care Short Term Not for use with Individual Investors. 4
5 12-MONTH ATTRIUTION INDUSTRY ATTRIUTION VS. CREDIT SUISSE HIGH YIELD INDEX (TOP AND OTTOM 5 Y TOTAL VALUE ADDED) (12 months ended September 30, 2017) Value Fund Weight (%) enchmark Weight (%) Fund Performance (%) enchmark Performance (%) Sector (bps) Credit (bps) Contribution (bps) Industry classification was determined by T. Rowe Price s high yield industry structure. All numbers are percentages. T. Rowe Price s proprietary attribution model compares the fund s performance and market weights by industry ratings with the benchmark s performance and market weights. Figures are shown gross of fees. Any difference in the total value added and the sum of credit selection and sector selection is referred to as residual. Residual can occur due to position shifts within the portfolio and benchmark both from an issuer and sector perspective and reflects any difference in performance calculation methodology between T. Rowe Price s proprietary attribution model and internal performance tool. CREDIT QUALITY ATTRIUTION VS. CREDIT SUISSE HIGH YIELD INDEX (12 months ended September 30, 2017) Value Top Five Media/T Health elecom Financial Utility Care ank Debt* / & Above / /CCC Fund Weight (%) enchmark Weight (%) Fund Performance (%) enchmark Performance (%) Sector (bps) Credit (bps) Contribution (bps) *Includes Institutional Floating Rate Fund Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Source of credit quality rating: Moody s Investor Services and Standard and Poor s. Analysis represents the combined performance of the underlying securities held within the given time period relative to its respective broad weighted benchmark as calculated by T. Rowe s proprietary attribution model. Performance for each security is in the currency in which it is issued and, if necessary, is converted using an exchange rate determined by an independent third party. Figures are shown gross of fees. Info Tech ottom Five Transportation Food & Drug Service Retail Food & Energy CCC & elow Equities Preferr ed/cvt Pfd/C onvertible TRP ICO Credit Swap Short Term Not for use with Individual Investors. 5
6 PORTFOLIO POSITIONING SIGNIFICANT OVER/UNDERWEIGHT INDUSTRIES Fund as of Credit Suisse High Yield Index as of Over/Underweight 1 1 Cable Operators Wireless Communications Financial Info Tech Utilities Satellites Metals & Mining Other Telecommunications uilding & Real Estate uilding Products Lodging Health Care Retail Services CREDIT QUALITY DIVERSIFICATION CHANGES OVER TIME Fund - Prior Year (9/30/16) Fund - Prior Quarter (6/30/17) Fund - Current Quarter Credit Suisse High Yield Index - Current Quarter / & Abv / /CCC CCC & elow CDS Equities Not Short- Term HOLDINGS TOP 10 ISSUERS Issuer Industry % of Fund Asurion Wireless Communications 1.7% NRG Energy Utilities 1.5 ALTICE NV Cable Operators 1.4 VERITAS Info Tech 1.4 CSC HOLDINGS Cable Operators 1.3 T-MOILE US Wireless Communications 1.3 Charter Communications Cable Operators 1.3 SCIENTIFIC GAMES Gaming 1.3 ALTICE FINANCING Cable Operators 1.2 SPRINT Wireless Communications 1.2 Not for use with Individual Investors. 6
7 PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT Portfolio Manager: Mark J. Vaselkiv Managed Fund Since: 1996 Joined Firm: 1988 Additional Disclosures Source for J.P. Morgan data: J.P. Morgan. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The index is used with permission. The Index may not be copied, used, or distributed without J.P. Morgan s prior written approval. Copyright 2017, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. The manager s views and portfolio holdings are historical and subject to change. This material should not be deemed a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for the Fund and no assumptions should be made that the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. Industry classification was determined by T. Rowe Price s high yield industry structure. Diversification exhibits may not add to 10 due to exclusion or inclusion of cash. Sources for credit quality: Moody s Investors Service and Standard & Poor s (S&P); split ratings (e.g., / and /CCC) are assigned when the Moody s and S&P ratings differ. T. Rowe Price does not evaluate these ratings, but simply assigns them to the appropriate credit quality category as determined by the rating agency. T. Rowe Price uses the rating of the underlying investment vehicle for credit default swaps. Short-term holdings are not rated. Certain numbers in this report may not equal stated totals due to rounding. All data is accurate as of the report production date. Unless indicated otherwise the source of all data is T. Rowe Price. Closed to new investors. Open to subsequent investments. The views contained herein are as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price associates. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE and the ighorn Sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks or registered trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc., Distributor Not for use with Individual Investors. 7
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