WILSON LEADERS LIMITED A.B.N

Transcription

1 WILSON LEADERS LIMITED A.B.N WILSON LEADERS LIMITED (WLS) SEPTEMBER 2007 INVESTMENT UPDATE & NTA As at 30 September 2007 NTA before tax c NTA after tax and before tax on unrealised gains c NTA after tax c The above figures are before the payment of the final dividend of 6.0 cents a share fully franked, payable on the 16 November MONTH IN REVIEW Overview We were defensively positioned at the end of August in anticipation of weaker US activity later in the year, unfortunately markets have responded favourable to the short term stimulus of a 50 basis point cut in the Federal Funds rate, rallying in September and the fund has underperformed. We missed out on the rally in gold stocks, were underweight resources and had poor stock selection in our short portfolio all detracting from performance. Major Events Economic FOMC Rate cut:- Stocks bounced back strongly in September after the FOMC lowered its key fed funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% in a unanimous decision to help boost economic growth and allay growing fears about a possible recession. The Fed also cut its discount rate by the same amount to 5.25%. Corporate Macquarie Bank investor update indicated that strong business conditions in the first quarter announced at the companies AGM had carried over into the second quarter leading to upgrades to full year expectations. Equity Markets We thought BHP Billiton was fully valued at the end of August only to see the shares move sharply higher in September detracting from relative performance. Adopting standard valuation metrics, inflated commodity prices would have to continue indefinitely to justify BHP Billiton current share price. While we continue to have a favourable view of commodities markets, we cannot justify holding BHP Billiton at current prices. We continue to retain significant holdings in Rio Tinto and Alumina.

2 Similarly with Woodside, while major LNG projects such as Pluto will enhance the company s production profile, forecast returns on this project are not that attractive at less than 10% and the shares are trading well ahead of fair value. Portfolio Attribution Detracting from performance:- The portfolio had no gold exposure with the sector up over 20% on a stronger gold price and the restructure of Newcrest s hedge book. The fund was underweight resources- BHP in particular. Contributing to performance:- Oil Search shares increased by 20% on takeover rumours and Webjet did very well following the announcement of the proposed merger with Travel.com. Portfolio Changes We have increased the funds weighting in the major trading banks: The trading banks have underperformed on credit concerns as wholesale funding costs have increased putting pressure on margins in the short term. This is presenting a buying opportunity as the trading banks will benefit in the medium term from the demise of non bank lenders such as RAMS Home loans. The drought is presenting a good buying opportunity in a number of Agricultural shares, many of which will struggle to realise profits in the current season. We have initiated positions in the Australian Wheat Board which has a new management team in place and have added to our investment in Select Harvest. Valuation We employ a range of valuation metrics in deriving target prices for all ASX 100 listed companies and other portfolio holdings. Expected returns based on target prices are evaluated for individual investments, the portfolio and the broader market. Our modeling would suggest that based on our target prices the market has moved into expensive territory and is currently >5% overvalued. The portfolio has modest upside (5%) and borrowed securities are overvalued by 12%.* If invested and borrowed securities were to reach our target prices, shareholders funds would increase by more than 10% indicating modest value in the current portfolio. *(Price targets are indicative only and are not forecasts of expected returns) Outlook We are cautious on the outlook for the US economy and equity markets generally. We are yet to see the full impact of tighter credit conditions on the real economy and the housing market is likely to deteriorate further. Robert Schiller of Yale University, warned that the US faces fresh economic shocks on the scale of the current credit squeeze if US house prices continue to fall. Mr Shiller said he feared "the collapse of home prices might turn out to be the most severe since the Great Depression". He's got a very solid track record, having designed the respected Case-Shiller house price index

3 Recent employment trends which are a leading indicator for household consumption are a concern and should be watched closely. If we look at earnings estimates for US companies, expectations of a recovery in earnings growth next year appear unfounded given our cautious view of the economy suggesting the market may struggle through the balance of the year and into DIVIDEND The final dividend declared for the 2007 year is 4.0 cents a share fully franked and a special dividend of 2.0 cents a share fully franked, payable on 16 November The shares will trade ex dividend on 2 November The dividend re-investment plan will be operating at no discount. To participate in the dividend re-investment plan, please send your election to our share registrar no later than the 2 November 2007.

4 OPTIONS ISSUE On 11 th August 2006, the Directors of Wilson Leaders Limited announced a 1 for 2 bonus issue of options to its shareholders. The options were allotted to shareholders on 8 th September 2006 and have been issued at no cost to shareholders. The options have an exercise price of $1.08 per option and can be exercised any time up until the expiry date of 31 October As at the 11 th October 11,877,295 options have been exercised for a total consideration of $12,827,479 with a remaining balance of outstanding options being 14,276,318. The Board is focused on creating shareholder value. The Board believes that this bonus option issue will promote this endeavour and will reward shareholders for their loyalty and support for the Company. PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE Gross Performance 1 month 3 month 6 month Financial YTD 07 Wilson Leaders Ltd 2.4% 6.4% 13.2% 6.4% All Ords Accum 5.8% 5.5% 12.1% 5.5% Relative Performance -3.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% PORTFOLIO STRUCTURE As at 30 September As at 31 August % of net % of net Investment Type $m assets $m assets Listed Securities % % Fixed interest and Cash % % Gross Assets % % Short positions % % Net Assets % % The listed securities portfolio is detailed on the following page.

5 As at 30 September 2007 the equity portfolio gave exposure to: Consumer Discretionary Health Care Amalgamated Holdings Ltd. 1,416, % Pharmaxis Ltd. 2,426, % Aristocrat Leisure Ltd. 1,908, % ResMed Inc. 1,225, % Austar United Communications Ltd. 3,179, % 3,651, % Billabong International Ltd. 1,198, % Industrials Mitchell Communication Group Ltd. 1,158, % Macquarie Infrastructure Group 2,184, % News Corp. 6,448, % Spotless Group Ltd. 420, % Publishing & Broadcasting Ltd. 3,349, % Service Stream Ltd. 1,742, % Seven Network Ltd. 1,519, % 4,346, % Ten Network Holdings Ltd. 1,360, % Information Technology Tattersall's Ltd. 1,191, % Computershare Ltd. 1,300, % Village Roadshow Ltd Prf A 2,914, % Reckon Ltd. 1,116, % Webjet Ltd. 3,398, % 2,417, % 29,041, % Materials Consumer Staples Alumina Ltd. 7,354, % Metcash Ltd. 3,917, % Gunns Ltd. 2,929, % Select Harvests Ltd. 2,326, % Incitec Pivot Ltd. 1,710, % 6,244, % James Hardie Industries N.V. 1,426, % Energy Rio Tinto Ltd. 7,041, % Oil Search Ltd. 3,102, % 20,462, % 3,102, % Telecommunication Services Financials iinet Ltd. 2,015, % Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. 6,828, % PIPE Networks Ltd. 1,106, % Babcock & Brown Ltd. 1,840, % Reverse Corp. Ltd. 2,154, % Henderson Group PLC 2,340, % Telecom Corp. of New Zealand Ltd. 3,302, % Lend Lease Corp. Ltd. 1,890, % 8,578, % Macquarie Bank Ltd. 1,856, % Utilities National Australia Bank Ltd. 11,436, % AGL Energy Ltd. 2,380, % QBE Insurance Group Ltd. 4,056, % Babcock & Brown Power Ltd. 2,160, % Westpac Banking Corp. 3,592, % 4,540, % Westfield Group Australia 3,906, % 37,745, % Long 120,131, % Short (31,105,613)