February Market Update

Transcription

1 February Market Update Snapshot of the month The ASX300 Accumulation index gained 6.9% while the MSCI AC World Index (USD) was up 5.6% On a trade-weighted basis the AUD gained a modest 0.3% Within fixed income the Bloomberg AusBond Composite Index gained 0.3% Tactical asset allocation added to performance across all asset allocation models Within Australian equities both stock selection and sector positioning added to relative performance Market performances (1 Month bar LHS; 12 Month line - RHS) 6.0% 4.0% In US$ 15% February 2.0% 0.0% 5% 0% ACWI -2.0% -4.0% -5% - DM -6.0% All Countries (ACWI) Developed Markets (DM) Emerging Markets (EM) -15% EM 8.0% In AU$ 40% February 6.0% 30% ASX % 20% 2.0% ACWI 0.0% 0% Property -2.0% ASX 300 ACWI Property Bloomberg Ausbond 1 Month sector and security performances 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% - Bloomberg Ausbond 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% 5.0% -5.0% -15.0%

2 General Market Overview A strong month for global equity markets Upbeat results over the US reporting season and better-than-expected corporate earnings in Europe combined with significant ongoing stimulus to drive markets higher. Among the major regions Europe (as measured by the Euro Stoxx 50 index), led outperformance (+7.4%) followed by the Nikkei 225 (+6.4%) and the S&P500 (+5.5%). Australian equity market outperforms as reporting season delivers The domestic market delivered its best monthly performance since October 2011, led by the Materials sector which enjoyed its best monthly return in over 6 years with a gain of 11.9%. The Energy sector also outperformed while the defensive sectors including Consumer Staples, Telcos and REIT s underperformed the rising market. Capital management was a prominent theme during reporting season which included Rio Tinto, Amcor and Fairfax Media announcing buybacks while Tabcorp and Oil Search announced special dividends. Overall profit results were broadly in line with expectations as continued cost-outs helped mitigate revenue weakness going forward it will however be more difficult to extract further gains from efficiency programs, especially amongst industrial companies which have been in cost-cutting mode for the last 3 years. S&P/ASX 200 EPS growth forecasts have now fallen to 0.1% for FY15. This comprises an expected 18% contraction for resources, an 8% rise for financials and growth for the core industrials market. While the growth forecast for the core market appears high, this is in part attributable to the translation impact of a weaker A$ on the earnings of companies operating offshore. There were also further rises in dividends, though this is increasingly coming at the expense of future growth with companies increasingly cutting capital expenditure to help fund the payments through cutting capex. Finally, outlook statements suggest conditions are mixed across industries. The over-riding issue continues to be whether the decline in mining investment will be offset by improvements in non-mining business investment and consumption. Bond market mixed February was an unusual month for bond returns with a solid rally for shorter maturity bonds as the RBA unexpectedly cut rates, while yields on long maturity bonds actually rose slightly in response to a large sell-off in US bonds. The other main impact was from widening credit spreads across semi-government bonds following the Queensland election, while corporate credit spreads tightened slightly. The result was that corporate bonds were the best performing, followed by commonwealth government bonds while semi-government bonds were the laggards. The Australian dollar stabilises after recent weakness Despite making modest gains on a trade-weighted basis, the A$ was mixed against the major currencies gaining 0.6% against the USD and also rallying against the Euro, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. It however underperformed against the NZ dollar, British Pound and Canadian dollar. Even after the recent weakness, RBA governor Steven s continues to make comments that the A$ remains above most estimates of fundamental value. Rebound in commodity prices The oil price finally stopped falling with the Brent oil price recording its first monthly gain since June 2014, possibly aided by the largest strike of oil workers in the US since 1980 as well as a plunging US oil rig count. The benchmark spot iron ore price was broadly stable, ending the month up 0.6%. Spot gold was however weaker, giving back most of the gains from last month. Sources: CBA Global Markets Research, JP Morgan, UBS

3 Portfolio Update Top 10 Australian equity holdings relative weightings (LHS) and forecast gross yield (RHS) ASX Woodside IAG Macquarie Rio Tinto Woolworths NAB Telstra ANZ BHP -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 0% 3% 6% 9% Relative weights are based on the Model Portfolio - actual weightings may differ across client portfolios. Gross yield based on Bloomberg consensus estimates including franking credits and assuming nil tax rate In terms of our model portfolio the largest overweight positions versus the index at month-end were in ASX, Myer and Woodside. The largest underweight positions were in Commonwealth Bank, Westpac and CSL (not owned). Overall stock selection added to relative performance with the largest contributors to & detractors from performance being: Contributors Overweight Myer ASX Macquarie Underweight Commonwealth Suncorp Aurizon Detractors IAG Transurban Woolworths Westpac QBE Insurance Origin Energy Portfolio sector allocations 50% 40% Portfolio Sector Weight Index Sector Weight 30% 20% 0% Financials Materials Cons Cons Staples Industrials Energy Telecoms Health Care Utilities IT Discretionary The Financials sector exposure includes A-Reits Sector allocations added to relative performance, driven by the overweight position to Consumer Discretionary and the underweight position in Financials.

4 Portfolio Update Continued International During February there were no changes to the international allocations within the model portfolios. The effective geographic and sector exposures are detailed below: Materials 28% Americas 18% 5% 13% Cons Discretionary Fins Ex-Reits 46% Greater Europe 12% 14% Energy Industrials Greater Asia IT 26% 15% 7% 6% Cons Staples Health Care Other Following significant outperformance over the past 6 months the Macquarie Asia New Stars No1 ( MANS ) Fund was the laggard across the international allocations as the broader region (Asia ex-japan) underperformed the World Index by a little over 4.0%. Solid returns were provided by the ishares Global 100 (IOO) and ishares MSCI EAFE (IVE) which gained 5.3% and 5.4% respectively, while MANS was up 1.0% (all in AUD). The MANS Fund saw small allocation increases to Hong Kong and the Philippines, and now holds overweight allocations to both these countries while being underweight Taiwan and Southeast Asia. The manager also took profits in India, moving the allocation back to market weight relative to the benchmark. February saw an increase in the Fund s cyclical bias, with increases in allocation to the financial sector. The manager is of the view that insurers will be the main beneficiaries of any further monetary easing in China and accordingly has significantly increased the Funds overweight to this industry. The key contributors to the MANS Fund s underperformance were holdings in Ezion Holdings (a Singaporean oil services company), Aurobindo Pharma (an Indian pharmaceuticals company) and China Power International (a Chinese utilities company). Fixed income The Macquarie Income Opportunities Fund ( MIO ) and Russell Australian Select Corp Bond ETF (RCB) both outperformed our benchmark (i.e. Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0-5 Yr) with returns of 0.9% and 0.7% respectively, while the Perpetual W/sale Dynamic Fixed Income Fund ( PDFI ) was broadly in-line with the benchmark return of 0.3%. Both RCB and PDFI which have allocations to shorter dated fixed rate bonds benefitted from the fall in bond yields. MIO which is a floating rate credit focussed fund (i.e. little interest rate exposure), enjoyed a strong February driven by its holdings of both investment grade and high yield credit, particularly its holdings of USD-denominated bonds. The US credit market, which had lagged peers in recent months, strongly outperformed other major currencies as oil prices stabilised somewhat and the relative value on offer in the region attracted investors. The manager increased the allocation to global high yield credit in the latter portion of the month to believing it continues to offer value as a result of not yet recovering from the repricing in late MIO continues to have no exposure to emerging markets, with the strong USD putting pressure on this sector. During the month the manager took part in handful of the new deals in Australia, including the Macquarie Bank issue and an auto loan-backed deal from VW Australia, as well as a number of new issues offshore. MIO s asset allocation at month end included circa 26% to cash via a combination of physical cash and credit hedges.

5 Portfolio Activity and Stock News Portfolio activity There were no outright sales or new additions to our model portfolios during the month. Please note that individual client accounts may be rebalanced periodically despite no changes to the model portfolios due to client specific circumstances. Before any rebalancing is executed we do consider both the % deviation of a client s holding from the model allocation as well as the absolute dollar amount of the difference to avoid unnecessary small trades. Stock news Company AGL Energy Amcor AMP ANZ Bank ASX BHP Billiton Downer EDI Fairfax Announcement AGL released its 1H FY15 results with both EBITDA and EBIT up 18.2% and 20.4%, respectively. Net operating cash flows however were down 14.5%, at $879m. The guided underlying profit of $ m is subject to normal trading conditions, in-line with previous guidance. The retail market competition is expected to remain intense for the remainder of the year. The company announced 1H FY15 results with profit in-line with consensus estimates. Amcor announced a further $US500m market buyback. The acquisitions are delivering expected benefits with the average annual spend on acquisitions being US$210m. Continued profit growth is expected for FY15. AMP announced its full year FY14 results showing strong growth across all contemporary businesses. Total AUM was up 9%, at $215b. The balance sheet remains strong with shareholder regulatory capital resources $1,987m above minimum regulatory requirements, down from $2,080 on pcp. The FY15 best estimate lapse assumption is around the level of the lapse rate achieved in FY14, gradually reverting to a long-term rate of approximately 13.5% by FY17. ANZ have agreed to allocate $850m of ANZ Capital Notes 3 under the Bookbuild, with the Margin for the proposed issue set at 3.6% p.a. ANZ New Zealand released its 1Q FY15 trading update showing an improvement in performance with unaudited statutory profit of NZ$425m, up from NZ$393m. ASX released positive earnings in its 1H FY15 results. There is continued growth seen across the divisions with a focus on technology as a key driver. The Company shows continued focus on growth in new services such as OTC clearing. There are also plans for ASX to upgrade the trading platforms and trading systems over the next two years. The Company announced 1H FY15 results with profit down on softer prices, increased cash flow realised on the back of productivity gains, productions increases and declining capex. The company has maintained a progressive dividend up 5.1% in USD terms. Capex and exploration is expected to reduce by 17% in FY15 and a further 14% in FY16. Growth rates are slowing but the country remains healthy. Downer has signed a 10-year Locomotive Maintenance Agreement with Pacific National Pty Ltd valued at approximately $1b. The Company has also consolidated arrangements to perform mining services for Fortescue Metals Group at its Christmas Creek operation. The company announced 1H FY15 results reporting a decline in EBITDA on a continuing business basis. Metro Media continues to see declining revenues. Domain was the standout performer in the 1H delivering strong growth. The Company is looking for acquired and organic growth across the business and continues to focus on reducing costs. Insurance Australia Group IAG released its 1H FY15 results showing a 17.1% increase in gross written premium (GWP) due to the addition of the former Wesfarmers business. There is an increasingly competitive environment in both personal and commercial lines, with little input cost pressures resulting in minimal cause for rate increases. GWP growth is expected to be at the lower end of the 17-20% guidance range. Sources: Company announcements, J.P. Morgan, Macquarie Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley, UBS

6 Portfolio Activity and Stock News Continued Company Macquarie National Bank Rio Tinto Sonic Healthcare Tabcorp Transurban Telstra Wesfarmers Announcement The company released its 2015 operational briefing and confirmed that trading conditions across the Group have continued to improve during the December 2014 quarter. NAB announced its 1Q FY15 trading update signifying a solid result with good progress on strategic priorities. Unaudited cash earnings was $1.65b, up 6% on pcp. The company also announced an offer of NAB Capital Notes to raise approximately $750m which is expected to be quoted on the ASX. Rio announced its full year FY14 results outlining an unchanged EBITDA margin from 2013 at 39%. Underlying earnings was down -9% at $9.3b due to the negative impact of lower prices, which was partially offset by higher volumes primarily in iron ore and cash cost reductions. Further cash cost improvements of $750m are expected to be realised in SHL announced solid results in its 1H FY15, reaffirming that the Company is in-line with guidance. Volume growth is strengthening in Australia and the US. European businesses are showing significant momentum. Tabcorp announced 1H FY15 results with revenue up 6.7% on pcp, at $1,115.2m. EBIT was also up 9.3%, at $177.1m along with NPAT up 21.8%, at $90.9m. A fully franked dividend of 10 cps was declared as well as a fully franked special dividend of 30 cps. Management is focused on maintaining strong cost management discipline and achieving a 14% ROIC following the integration of ACTTAB. The company released its 1H FY15 with proportional toll revenue up 9.8% on pcp. Proportional EBITDA was also up by 13.6%. There was a net loss of $354m for the Company largely driven by the significant items related to the acquisition of Queensland Motorways ($406m). Excluding these items, net profit was $52m. A 19.5 cps dividend was declared. Transurban s likely participation in the growing policy and technology enhancements in the future could drive significant changes in transport network management. Telstra announced 1H FY15 results with income, profit and customer growth in line to meet its full year guidance. Total income excluding finance income increased 1.6%, to $13.0b. Telstra expects continued low single-digit income and EBITDA growth in 2015 to offset the absence of CSL 2014 operating revenue and EBITDA. The company released 1H FY15 reporting an increase in operating cash flows of 29.8% on the back of increased working capital cash flows. Interest cover on a cash basis improved to 18.1 times, with pcp at 13.8 times. Management are generally more optimistic on the retail trading outlook, with January and February trading showing signs of improvement. Export prices in metallurgical coal are expected to remain low. Woolworths Woodside Woolworths reported its 1H FY15 results showing gross profit as a percentage of sales increased by 20bps, to 27.2%. Cash from operations (before interest and tax) was $2,278.4m, down 18.1% on negative working capital changes. The factors leading to this were deemed timing issues. FY15 NPAT before significant items was effectively downgraded, now expected to be towards the lower end of analyst forecasts being %. Further cost reductions initiatives by the Company across the business will be a key focus for 2H FY15 and beyond. Woodside released its full year FY14 results with production at record levels of 95.1 MMboe. Gains from full year production were from Vincent after recent maintenance issues, better weather, and higher reliability at Pluto. Productivity improvements delivered $560m through production improvement, capex and opex savings, and a 320 reduction in staff. Sources: Company announcements, J.P. Morgan, Macquarie Wealth Management, Morgan Stanley, UBS

7 Disclaimer This material has been prepared for general information purposes only and not as specific advice to any particular person. Any advice contained in this material is General Advice and does not take into account any person s individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making an investment decision based on this advice you should consider whether it is appropriate to your particular circumstances, alternatively seek professional advice. Where the General Advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a financial product, you should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement ( PDS ) relating to the product and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. You will find further details of the service we provide and any cost to you within the Financial Services Guide. Any references to past investment performance are not an indication of future investment returns. Prepared by EP Financial Services Pty Ltd (Elston Partners) ABN AFSL Although every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in this material, EP Financial Services Pty Ltd, its officers, representatives, employees and agents ( Elston Partners ) disclaim all liability (except for any liability which by law cannot be excluded), for any error, inaccuracy in, or omission from the information contained in this material or any loss or damage suffered by any person directly or indirectly through relying on this information.