Week ended Mar 28, Week ended Mar 21, Chg. % Market Indicators

Transcription

1 ` Market Review and Outlook The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index increased by points or 1.93% during the trading week to close at 10, Market capitalization gained by 0.8% to QR567.6 billion (bn) versus QR563.3bn the previous trading week. Of the 46 listed companies, 37 companies ended the week higher, while 8 declined and 1 remained unchanged. Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance (AKHI) was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 46.7% on a trading volume of 1.96 million (mn) shares. On the other hand, Ezdan Holding (ERES) was the worst performing stock for the week with a decline of 14.3% on 4.1mn shares traded. Qatar International Bank (QIIK), Qatar Fuel Co. (QFLS) and Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co. (MPHC) were the primary contributors to the weekly index gain. QIIK was the biggest contributor to the index s weekly increase, adding 34.2 points to the index. QFLS was the second biggest contributor to the mentioned gain, contributing 33.7 points to the index. Moreover, MPHC tacked on 24.6 points to the index. Trading value during the week increased by 27.1% to QR1.7bn versus QR1.3bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 34.4% of the total trading value. The Industrials sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 19.6% of the total. QNB Group (QNBK) was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR324.3mn. Trading volume increased by 32.5% to reach 61.1mn shares versus 46.1mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions increased by 13.4% to 31,248 transactions versus 27,553 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 31.1%, followed by the Industrials sector which accounted for 25.6% of the overall trading volume. United Development Co. (UDCD) was the top volume traded stock during the week with 8.4mn shares. Foreign institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR92.1mn vs. net buying of QR154.3mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained positive with net buying of QR139.9mn vs. net buying of QR39.7mn in the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bearish with net selling of QR3.9mn vs. net selling of QR28.7mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bearish with net selling of QR228.1mn vs. net selling of QR163.3mn the week before. Foreign institutions have bought (net basis) ~$606mn worth of Qatari equities in QSE Index and Volume 10,300 10,050 9,800 Market Indicators Week ended Mar 28, 2019 Week ended Mar 21, 2019 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 1, , Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 567, , Volume (mn) Number of Transactions 31,248 27, Companies Traded Market Breadth 37:8 30:14 Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 18, ALL Share Index 3, (0.2) (0.3) Banks and Financial Services 3, (0.5) Industrials 3, Transportation 2, Real Estate 1, (8.1) (15.0) (15.2) Insurance 3, Telecoms (4.0) Consumer Goods & Services 7, Al Rayan Islamic Index 4, Market Indices Weekly Index Performance 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% (1.0%) (2.0%) (3.0%) (4.0%) 9, , , , Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar Volume 1.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% Qatar (QSE)* Kuwait Saudi Arabia Dubai QSE Index (0.5%) Abu Dhabi (0.9%) Bahrain 10, (3.5%) Oman 18,000,000 9,000,000 0 Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QSE)* 10, (1.5) , Dubai 2, (0.2) ,045.7 # Abu Dhabi 5, (0.5) (0.7) , Saudi Arabia # 8, , , Kuwait 4, , Oman 4, (3.5) (3.4) (7.4) , Bahrain 1, (0.9) (0.9) , Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; # Data as of March 27, 2019) Page 1 of 7

2 News Economic & Market News Qatar s economy to expand 2.8% YoY in 2019 Qatar s economy will expand 2.8% YoY in 2019 and 2.6% YoY in 2020, according to the latest results of a Bloomberg News survey of 9 economists conducted from March 15 to March 20. Further, CPI will increase 1.8% YoY in 2019 and 2.1% YoY in (Bloomberg) QIIK s shareholders approve foreign ownership limit increase up to 49% Qatar International Islamic Bank s (QIIK) Extraordinary General Assembly was held on March 24, 2019, at which QIIK s shareholders approved the board of directors recommendation to allow the ownership of foreign investors to a maximum 49% of the bank s capital instead of the previous 25%. They also approved the board of directors recommendation to amend Article of Association (no. 5), to subdivide the share value in accordance with the decision of the Qatar Financial Market Authority, to QR1 instead of QR10. The company's share capital is QR1,513,687,490 subdivided into 1,513,687,490 shares with a nominal value of QR1 each. QIIK s Deputy CEO, Jamal Abdullah Al Jamal said, QIIK has been working on solid growth strategy and confident to achieve its target given the good growth opportunities as government has made significant budgetary allocations for infrastructure development and other social sector in line with the preparations for the 2022 World Cup and Qatar National Vision On overseas expansion, Al Jamal said that as of now the bank has no plans to further expand its operations in other countries, including Morocco, where QIIK with its local partner, run and maintain 20 branches. However, he said that if some good opportunities arise, the bank will definitely study and go through them. (Gulf-Times.com, Peninsula Qatar) S&P affirms QIBK s issuer credit rating at A-/A-2 with Stable outlook Standard & Poor s (S&P) affirmed Qatar Islamic Bank s (QIBK) issuer credit rating at A-/A-2 with Stable outlook. S&P stated, The rating reflects our views of the bank s robust corporate banking franchise and favorable position as Qatar s largest Islamic bank with a rapidly expanding position in the retail segment. QIBK s sound financial performance, robust asset quality and strong capitalization support the rating. The S&P report also highlighted that QIBK s funding profile is now more balanced because the bank has replaced GCC deposits with core deposits from local entities (GREs). QIBK s stable funding ratio reached 113.1%, as of December 31, The bank s liquidity is also adequate, with about 9% of assets placed in liquid forms and another 20% placed mostly in Qatari government Sukuk. The report also reiterated that QIBK s longterm rating is in line with the bank s high systematic importance in Qatar and the agency s assessment of the Qatari government as highly supportive to the domestic banking sector. QIBK has demonstrated steady financial growth over the past years and has been setting a benchmark for Islamic banks in the region with its embrace of cutting-edge banking technologies. The bank s customer-centric approach to both its product offering and the overall banking experience is offered across its renovated branch network and constantly developing digital channels. (Gulf-Times.com) Fitch affirms CBQK s Long-Term IDR at A with Stable outlook Fitch affirmed The Commercial Bank s (CBQK) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at A with a Stable outlook, shortterm IDR at F1, Viability Rating (VR) was downgraded to bb+ from bbb. Fitch s IDRs, Support Rating (SR) and Support Rating Floor (SRF) reflect the strong ability of Qatar to support its banks, as indicated by its rating (AA-/Stable). In its report, the ratings agency stated CBQK s profitability improved in 2018 as a result of relatively lower loan impairment charges absorbing 36% of pre-impairment operating profit (down from 74% in 2017) and lower operating expenses. The cost-to-income ratio, which has been a constraint on the bank's profitability, continued its downward trend to 31% in 2018 from above 40% previously, standing closer to peers. Despite loan book repricing, CBQK s net interest margin dropped only slightly to 1.98% in 2018 from 2.01% in The Fitch report also maintained that CBQK's debt issuance represented about 13% of total funding at end-2018, which helped diversify the bank's funding and maturity profile. (Gulf-Times.com) MARK to plan Islamic bond offering Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) is planning to sell Islamic Dollar bonds, according to sources. The Doha-based lender may issue a benchmark-size Sukuk. A benchmark offering usually raises at least $500mn. The offering would follow Qatar s $12bn bond sale earlier this month, which attracted more than four times as much investor interest. MARK would be among a long list of emerging-markets issuers, including Qatar Islamic Bank and Saudi Arabia s Almarai, seeking to take advantage of a pause in US interestrate increases. (Bloomberg) AKHI reports net profit of QR11.2mn in 4Q2018 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance (AKHI) reported net profit of QR11.2mn in 4Q2018 as compared to net loss of QR16.4mn in 4Q2017 and net profit of QR1.3mn in 3Q2018 (representing increase of 765.5% QoQ). EPS amounted to QR0.79 in FY2018 as compared to QR0.01 in FY2017. The board of directors recommended distribution of 5% cash dividend of initial value equivalent to QR0.50 per share. (QSE) Nebras Power to mulls more than $1bn stake sale in Indonesianbased power producers Nebras Power is considering selling its stake in PT Paiton Energy, one of Indonesia s largest independently owned power producers, according to sources. Nebras Power s 35.5% holding in Paiton could be valued at more than $1bn, sources said. Nebras Power has held initial talks with potential financial advisers, but has not started a formal sale process. No final decisions have been made, and Nebras Power may also decide to retain its stake in Paiton, sources added. (Bloomberg) Nebras Power eyes new foreign markets for expansion Nebras Power, the foreign investment arm of Qatar Electricity & Water (QEWS), is eyeing new foreign markets as it seeks to expand its international footprint. Nebras Power s CEO, Khalid Mohammed Jolo said, We are always looking for increasing our portfolio in the international market. And we are looking for expanding our portfolio in terms of geography and with regards Page 2 of 7

3 to the technology that we use and the number of megawatts that we have. In the very near future, we do have an investment that we are considering in North Africa, Latin America, Australia, and Jordan; and basically we hope that in very short period, we can announce successful deals in those countries. He also said the projects will be related to different types of technology including renewable, wind, solar, and conventional projects. Jolo added, QEWS relies heavily in Nebras Power to expand in the international market. And we hope to achieve our business plan in the required time, and achieve the goal that has been set by our shareholders. Today, we re having four projects in Jordan, one in Indonesia, and another in Oman, and we have a portfolio of our plants in Netherlands. Also, we have around 1.2 Gigawatts of niche power and we are trying to add at least 1 Gigawatt this year. (Peninsula Qatar) QFBQ reports net loss of QR56.4mn in 4Q2018 Qatar First Bank (QFBQ) reported net loss of QR56.4mn in 4Q2018 as compared to net loss of QR129.7mn in 4Q2017 and QR71.7mn in 3Q2018. Loss per share amounted to QR2.41 in FY2018 as compared to QR1.35 in FY2017. In FY2018, QFBQ posted net loss of QR481.9mn. The Shari ah-compliant bank s total income (excluding disposal loss and loss on fair value re-measurement of equity investments) showed a growth momentum last year with an increase of 24.1% at QR222mn, compared to QR178mn in This was mainly driven by the fee income from the structured products and a reduction of 26% in returns to unrestricted investment account holders (the cost of funding) due to the better management of its loan to deposit ratio. QFBQ is regulated by QFCRA and listed on the Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE). QFBQ s management continued to raise its efficiency through the implementation of its cost rationalization plan that resulted in reduction of total expenses of the bank by 10%, as compared to the previous year. This was mainly driven by reduction in staff cost by 18% and other operating expenses by 16%. The Treasury and investment arm has initiated an ambitious plan to continue increasing the assets under management through multiple deal-by-deal transactions and direct sourcing, structuring and placement of these deals. The asset and liability management desk continues its offering of innovative products and solutions to the Qatari Corporate client base while adhering to prudent liquidity management measures that enables the bank to maintain its cost of funding and generate positive net profit margins. The bank also reported a disposal loss and loss on fair value re-measurement of equity investments of QR331mn during the year, compared to QR119mn in the previous year. This was mainly driven by global and regional headwinds resulting in prevailing market uncertainties that affected the performance of the bank s alternative investments portfolio. Despite the challenges faced by QFBQ previously, the bank said it looks forward to the future today with positive considered forecasts. In 2018, the bank underwent a comprehensive exercise to identify weaknesses and strengths. The exercise revealed internal strategic capabilities in private banking and real estate investment that could offer a competitive edge that would enhance future returns in search of lucrative business opportunities that would have a positive impact on the bank s future growth. The board of directors recommended not distributing any profit as dividend for FY2018. (QSE, Gulf- Times.com) QGMD reports net loss of QR7.3mn in 4Q2018 Qatari German for Medical Devices (QGMD) reported net loss of QR7.3mn in 4Q2018 compared to net loss of QR15.4mn in 4Q2017 and QR1.1mn in 3Q2018. In FY2018, QGMD reported net loss of QR12.8mn compared to QR21.7mn in FY2017. Loss per share amounted to QR1.11 in FY2018 compared to loss per share of QR1.88 in FY2017. (QSE) MRDS reports net loss of QR5.5mn in 4Q2018 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS) reported net loss of QR5.5mn in 4Q2018 compared to net profit of QR10.5mn in 4Q2017 and net profit of QR5.9mn in 3Q2018. In FY2018, MRDS reported net profit of QR16.6mn compared to QR28.1mn in FY2017. EPS amounted to QR0.143 in FY2018 compared to QR0.243 in FY2017. The board of directors has proposed to the AGM to distribute 5% dividend equivalent to QR0.5 per share. (QSE) Page 3 of 7

4 Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners 0.0% 60.0% 46.7% -3.0% -2.8% -2.5% -1.7% 40.0% -6.0% 26.6% 20.0% 12.9% 12.8% 10.9% -12.0% -14.3% 0.0% Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance Co. Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Co. Qatar National Cement Gulf International Services Qatar International Islamic Bank -18.0% Ezdan Holding Group Qatari German Co. for Medical Dev. Gulf Warehousing Mannai Corporation Doha Insurance Group Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) QNB Group Qatar Fuel United Development Qatar International Islamic Bank Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co. 0.0 United Vodafone Qatar Development Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co. Mazaya Qatar Qatar First Bank Real Estate Dev. Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) 100% 80% 32.74% 10.85% 27.33% 11.08% Non-Qatari % 17.96% 26.17% 40% 20% 30.24% 43.64% (88) Qatari 1,048 0% Buy Sell 960 Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions (200) ,000 1,200 Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought Page 4 of 7

5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index increased by 1.93% from the week before, and closed at 10, We remain on the view of the corrective side of the Index as we wait for opportunities of possible reversals. We keep our weekly support level at the 9,250 level and our resistance at the 10,400 level. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The body of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the shadow. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. Page 5 of 7

6 Name Price March 28 % Change WTD % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank (7.44) 166, Qatar Islamic Bank (0.23) 35, Commercial Bank of Qatar , Doha Bank (3.83) 6, Al Ahli Bank , Qatar International Islamic Bank , Masraf Al Rayan (1.10) (11.83) 27, Al Khaliji Bank (0.35) 4, Qatar First Bank N/A 0.8 N/A National Leasing (7.62) Dlala Holding (1.80) 279 N/A 1.3 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment Islamic Holding Group N/A Banking and Financial Services 278,808 Zad Holding , Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 5.90 (2.96) N/A 1.4 N/A Salam International Investment (1.62) 487 N/A 0.4 N/A Medicare Group , Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Qatar Fuel , Qatar Meat and Livestock (8.29) 1, Mannai Corp (2.52) (15.38) 2, Al Meera Consumer Goods , Consumer Goods and Services 30,257 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing (0.63) (8.20) 1, Qatar National Cement , Industries Qatar (7.27) 74, Qatari Investors Group (0.16) (9.89) 3, Qatar Electricity and Water (6.87) 18, Aamal , Gulf International Services (8.53) 2,890 N/A 0.8 N/A Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding , Invesment Holding Group Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing (16.55) 6,216 N/A N/A N/A Industrials 145,813 Qatar Insurance , Doha Insurance (1.72) (8.56) Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance (10.87) 3, Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance Qatar Islamic Insurance Insurance 16,980 United Development (5.56) 4, Barw a Real Estate (8.17) 14, Ezdan Real Estate 9.90 (14.29) (23.73) 26, N/A Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development N/A Real Estate 46,370 Ooredoo (11.47) 21, Vodafone Qatar (0.13) 6, Telecoms 27,863 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) , Gulf Warehousing (2.78) , Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) , Transportation 21,540 Qatar Exchange 567,632 Source: Bloomberg Page 6 of 7

7 Contacts Saugata Sarkar, CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) Tel: (+974) Tel: (+974) Mehmet Aksoy, PhD QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) Tel: (+974) PO Box Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. ( QNB FS ) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNB FS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNB FS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNB FS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNB FS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNB FS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNB FS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNB FS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNB FS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNB FS. Page 7 of 7