8,960 8,940 8,920 8,900 8,880 8,860 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00

Transcription

1 QSE Intra-Day Movement 8,960 8,940 8,920 8,900 8,880 8,860 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 Qatar Commentary The QSE Index rose 0.1% to close at 8, Gains were led by the Real Estate and Insurance indices, gaining 4.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Top gainers were Ezdan Holding Group and Qatar Insurance Co., rising 7.1% and 2.4%, respectively. Among the top losers, Al Khaleej Takaful Group fell 2.6%, while Qatari Investors Group was down 2.5%. GCC Commentary Saudi Arabia: The TASI Index rose 0.5% to close at 7, Gains were led by the Consumer Serv. and Pharma, Biotech. indices, rising 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively. Saudi Indian Co. for Coop. Ins. rose 6.0%, while Altayyar Travel Group was up 4.4%. Dubai: The DFM Index gained 0.3% to close at 3, The Banks index rose 0.9%, while the Telecommunication index gained 0.7%. Al Salam Sudan rose 5.4%, while Marka was up 1.9%. Abu Dhabi: The ADX benchmark index rose 0.1% to close at 4, The Consumer Staples index gained 1.4%, while the Real Estate index rose 0.4%. Ras Al-Khaimah Cement Co. gained 4.1%, while Union Cement Co. was up 4.0%. Kuwait: The KSE Index declined 0.1% to close at 6, The Oil & Gas index fell 1.4%, while the Industrial index declined 1.1%. Amwal International Investment Co. fell 8.1%, while GFH Financial Group was down 6.7%. Oman: The MSM Index rose 0.8% to close at 5, Gains were led by the Services and Financial indices, rising 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. Vision Insurance rose 4.2%, while Al Madina Investment was up 3.2%. Bahrain: The BHB Index fell 0.1% to close at 1, The Commercial Banks index declined 0.3%, while the other indices ended flat or in green. Khaleeji Commercial Bank declined 0.9%, while Ahli United Bank was down 0.7%. QSE Top Gainers Close* 1D% Vol. 000 YTD% Ezdan Holding Group (20.6) Qatar Insurance Co (7.2) Ooredoo (12.2) Al Meera Consumer Goods Co (13.4) Qatar Navigation (32.8) Market Indicators 28 Aug Aug 17 %Chg. Value Traded (QR mn) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 485, , Volume (mn) Number of Transactions 1,855 1, Companies Traded (4.9) Market Breadth 15:22 15:21 Market Indices Close 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E Total Return 14, (0.1) (11.2) 15.4 All Share Index 2, (11.4) 13.8 Banks 2, (5.0) 12.1 Industrials 2, (0.7) (0.9) (18.7) 17.9 Transportation 1, (0.0) (24.9) 12.9 Real Estate 1, (14.2) 13.1 Insurance 4, (8.6) 18.3 Telecoms 1, (9.2) 21.1 Consumer 5, (0.1) (0.4) (10.6) 12.5 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3, (0.2) (0.4) (8.8) 17.0 GCC Top Gainers ## Exchange Close # 1D% Vol. 000 YTD% United Real Estate Co. Kuwait Ezdan Holding Group Qatar (20.6) Altayyar Travel Group Saudi Arabia ,860.9 (1.9) Herfy Food Services Co. Saudi Arabia (7.4) Boubyan Petrochem. Co. Kuwait GCC Top Losers ## Exchange Close # 1D% Vol. 000 YTD% Aviation Lease & Fin. Kuwait 0.37 (3.9) IFA Hotels & Resorts Kuwait 0.27 (3.6) Qatari Investors Group Qatar (2.5) 10.0 (23.3) Gulf International Serv. Qatar (2.4) (39.7) Alawwal Bank Saudi Arabia (1.9) (9.4) Source: Bloomberg ( # in Local Currency) ( ## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the Bloomberg GCC 200 Index comprising of the top 200 regional equities based on market capitalization and liquidity) QSE Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. 000 YTD% Al Khaleej Takaful Group (2.6) 6.5 (26.6) Qatari Investors Group (2.5) 10.0 (23.3) Gulf International Services (2.4) (39.7) Dlala Brokerage & Inv. Holding (2.1) 27.5 (23.2) United Development Co (1.6) (26.5) QSE Top Volume Trades Close* 1D% Vol. 000 YTD% Vodafone Qatar 8.50 (0.6) 1,764.0 (9.3) Investment Holding Group ,544.7 (24.8) Masraf Al Rayan (0.1) QNB Group (0.1) (10.5) Industries Qatar (0.1) (21.6) Regional Indices Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD% QSE Top Value Trades Close* 1D% Val. 000 YTD% QNB Group (0.1) 50,187.8 (10.5) Industries Qatar (0.1) 29,663.4 (21.6) Masraf Al Rayan (0.1) 25, Vodafone Qatar 8.50 (0.6) 14,968.4 (9.3) Investment Holding Group ,662.3 (24.8) Source: Bloomberg (* in QR) Exch. Val. Traded ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar* 8, (0.1) (4.9) (14.3) , Dubai 3, (0.3) (0.6) , Abu Dhabi 4, (0.2) (1.8) (1.3) , Saudi Arabia 7, , Kuwait 6, (0.1) , Oman 5, (0.4) (13.5) , Bahrain 1, (0.1) (0.1) (2.0) , Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Stock Exchange, Tadawul, Muscat Securities Exchange, Dubai Financial Market and Zawya (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) Page 1 of 5

2 Qatar Market Commentary The QSE Index rose 0.1% to close at 8, The Real Estate and Insurance indices led the gains. The index rose on the back of buying support from Qatari shareholders despite selling pressure from GCC and non-qatari shareholders. Ezdan Holding Group and Qatar Insurance Co. were the top gainers, rising 7.1% and 2.4%, respectively. Among the top losers, Al Khaleej Takaful Group fell 2.6%, while Qatari Investors Group was down 2.5%. Volume of shares traded on Monday rose by 29.6% to 6.5mn from 5.0mn on Sunday. However, as compared to the 30-day moving average of 7.3mn, volume for the day was 11.3% lower. Vodafone Qatar and Investment Holding Group were the most active stocks, contributing 27.2% and 23.9% to the total volume, respectively. Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR) Qatari Individuals 55.67% 43.53% 22,156, Qatari Institutions 20.01% 22.67% (4,859,961.74) Qatari 75.68% 66.20% 17,296, GCC Individuals 0.48% 0.97% (906,956.38) GCC Institutions 2.12% 2.33% (383,001.38) GCC 2.60% 3.30% (1,289,957.76) Non-Qatari Individuals 3.02% 5.55% (4,631,907.49) Non-Qatari Institutions 18.71% 24.94% (11,374,970.68) Non-Qatari 21.73% 30.49% (16,006,878.17) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (* as a % of traded value) Ratings Company Agency Market Type* Old Rating New Rating Rating Change Outlook Outlook Change Industries Qatar S&P Qatar LT FIR/LT LIR A+/A+ A+/A+ Negative Source: News reports (* LT Long Term, ST Short Term, FSR- Financial Strength Rating, FIR Foreign Issuer Rating, LIR Local Issuer Rating, IDR Issuer Default Rating, SR Support Rating, LC Local Currency) News Qatar QSE and Iridium launch third investor relations excellence program The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE), in collaboration with Iridium Investor Relations, is launching the IR Excellence Program for the third year since its successful launch in The QSE has highlighted this as an opportunity for publiclylisted companies to excel, as the IR Excellence Program will once again recognize their achievements and proactive efforts to foster professional investor relations standards. QSE s Chief Executive Officer, Rashid Bin Ali Al-Mansoori said, The IR Excellence Program reflects our sincere desire and best intentions to achieve international best practices. We aim to see the QSE s listed companies committed to improving the flow of information for a more transparent and better-informed market environment. The IR Excellence program recognition is one of the most significant programs in the region, rewarding listed corporates for their investor relations efforts. (Gulf- Times.com) QCB: Europe accounts for 37% of Qatari banks cross border funded liabilities Qatar s banking sector depends heavily on Europe on the liability side, as the region accounts for 37% of the cross border funded liabilities, according to a Qatar Central Bank (QCB) report. Around half of the liabilities to foreign financial institutions (9.6% of the total liabilities) are from European banks. In this context, QCB noted that any tightness in the foreign interbank market that arise from uncertainties including Brexit may negatively impact the domestic liquidity position. Banking sector exposure through cross border transactions are geographically diversified to a certain extent, according to the QCB s 8 th Financial Stability Review. During 2016, both assets and liability exposure to outside Qatar have increased; however, the asset exposures remained within the regulatory caps. Considering the fact that around 49% of the earning assets are with Other MENA region and Europe, vulnerabilities due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties from these region can impact the value of banking sector assets. Nonetheless, the impact will be limited, since these exposures contribute just above 10% of the total assets of the sector. (Gulf-Times.com) Blockade will economically strengthen Qatar in the long run The blockade on Qatar will strengthen the economy in the long run, a Qatar University (QU), Brookings Doha Centre seminar was told. The panelists highlighted that the cause of the present Gulf crisis is unknown as the blockading countries have neither provided any concrete proof against Qatar nor were able to convince the international community on any of their allegations against Qatar. The forum also noted that the current crisis is the inability of the GCC in solving their differences internally. The seminar 'The Gulf Crisis and the Region', held at Sheraton Doha, discussed the blockade imposed on Qatar by Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE and its impact on the region s security and stability as well as its socio-economic growth. (Gulf-Times.com) Fitch Ratings cut Qatar s credit rating to AA-/Negative Outlook Fitch lowered Qatar s rating by one notch to AA- with a Negative outlook. That brought it in line with the other two major rating agencies, Moody's and Standard & Poor's, which assess Qatar at the same level and also have Negative outlooks for it. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt cut ties with Qatar on June 5, accusing it of backing terrorism, which it denies. (Reuters) Pakistan s exports to Qatar remain intact Pakistan s exports to Qatar remain intact so far, showing no signs of an immediate fall in the aftermath of a diplomatic and political row between Qatar and other GCC countries. Merchandise exports to Qatar slipped to $52.6mn during the last fiscal year from $59.9mn in Page 2 of 5

3 , according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan. However, the decline has nothing to do with the latest political development in the GCC region, according to a senior official of Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP). Brushing aside concerns regarding the impact of a political crisis in the GCC region, officials point out that exports to Qatar in fact increased nearly 12% to $5.6mn in June, mainly due to larger shipments of rice, leather products, and shipping machinery. (Gulf-Times.com) International US goods trade deficit widens in July The US goods trade deficit increased in July as exports fell, suggesting that trade would make a modest contribution to economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said the goods trade gap increased 1.7% to $65.1bn last month. Exports declined 1.3%, weighed down by the 8.0% tumble in shipments of motor vehicles. There were also decreases in exports of consumer goods last month. Capital goods exports rose 1.5%. Imports fell 0.3%, reflecting 2.8% drop in motor vehicle imports as well as 1.7% decline in industrial supplies. Capital goods imports rose 2.0% last month and imports of consumer goods dipped 0.1%. (Reuters) Japan s July household spending unexpectedly falls despite tight job market Japan s household spending unexpectedly fell in July from a year earlier after last month s spike, casting some doubt on the sustainability of a domestic demand-driven economic recovery seen as vital to boost tepid inflation. The data keeps pressure on policymakers betting that a tightening labor market will boost wages and lift consumption, thereby allowing companies to raise prices and help the Bank of Japan achieve its 2% inflation goal. Household spending slid 0.2% in July from a year earlier after hitting a two-year high in June, government data showed, confounding a median market forecast for a 0.7% increase. The jobless rate was flat at 2.8% in July and 1.52 jobs were available per applicant, the highest since 1974, a separate data showed, a sign the economy continued to enjoy what many analysts consider as near full employment. (Reuters) China's factories seen posting another solid month of growth in August China s factories likely posted another solid month of growth in August, suggesting the world s second-largest economy is still growing at a healthy clip despite rising financing costs and a cooling housing market, a Reuters poll showed. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is expected to come in at 51.3 for August, down just a fraction from July s 51.4, according to a median forecast of 39 economists polled by Reuters. That would signal the 13 th straight month of expansion for China s manufacturers, who are enjoying their best profits in years thanks to a governmentled construction boom and a recovery in exports. The 50-mark divides expansion from contraction a monthly basis. Driven by strong infrastructure spending and record bank lending last year, China s economy grew by a faster-than-expected 6.9% in the first half of 2017 and looks set to easily meet the government s full-year target of around 6.5%. That momentum has given policymakers room to focus on tackling financial risks stemming from a rapid build-up in debt and an overheated property market. (Reuters) Regional GCC s new debt issuance jumps sharply GCC s bonds and Sukuk market remained strong in 2016, while witnessing substantial increase in activities triggered by the regional countries need to plug their budget deficits. The strong credit quality and low government debt enabled the governments to raise debt in the international market. With an urgent need to fund the current and forecasted deficits, sovereign debt markets were sought after as a viable solution second year in a row by the GCC governments, in addition to drawing from sovereign reserves. As a result, the sovereign issues dominated the GCC s bonds and Sukuk market as their share increased to 64.3% in 2016 as compared to 58.26% in The total value raised by sovereign issues increased by 73.4% as $65.82bn was raised through 25 sovereign issuances over the year as compared to $37.96bn. While the share of corporate entities dropped, the total value raised by them increased by 34.62% to $36.613bn in (Peninsula Qatar) EY: MENA region s M&A deals fall 23% in 1H2017 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region s mergers & acquisitions (M&A) activity witnessed 192 deals in 1H2017, representing a decline of 23% when compared with 250 deals in 1H2016, according to an Ernst & Young s (EY) report. Announced MENA deal value also decreased by 17% to $31.9bn in1h2017, down from $38.9bn in the same period of Out of the total deals in 1H2017, outbound deals accounted for the highest deal value reaching total of $19.6bn from 61 deals. Domestic deals generated the highest amount of activity in 1H2017, with volume of 93 deals and value of $5bn. Inbound M&A activity reached volume of 38 deals with value of $7.3bn. (GulfBase.com) Saudi Arabia s banking outlook to improve in 2H2017 Confidence in the outlook for Saudi Arabia s banking sector is gaining momentum, as most leading banks have shown resilience in balance sheet growth and profitability while improving asset quality during 1H2017. Banking sector analysts expect the outlook is set further brighten in 2H2017 on improved net interest margins (NIM), lower cost of funds, stronger loan growth and lower impairments. Bank of America Merrill Lynch s analysts expect to see an improved outlook for Saudi Arabia s banks into 2H2017 and beyond on themes such as NIM expansion accelerating on the back of three US Federal Reserve rate hikes observed since December 2016, as well as further four interest rates hikes expected over the next 18 months. Bank results for the full year are also likely to reflect the lower than expected cost of funding, as observed in 2Q2017. (GulfBase.com) Dow plans to boost stake in Sadara JV to 50% Dow Chemical Company (Dow) and Saudi Aramco announced non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that sets forth a process for Dow to acquire an additional 15% ownership interest from Saudi Aramco in Sadara Chemical Company (Sadara), joint venture (JV) developed by the two companies. The current equity ownership split is 65% of Saudi Aramco and 35% to Dow. If the potential transaction is concluded as presently proposed, Dow and Saudi Aramco would each hold 50% equity stake in Sadara. (GulfBase.com) Page 3 of 5

4 WSJ: Saudi Arabia, Russia are said to push for oil cut extension Saudi Arabia and Russia are pushing to extend their deal to limit crude oil production for another three months, which would leave the output deal between OPEC and non-opec producers in place through the end of June, according to The Wall Street Journal s (WSJ) reports. (Bloomberg) S&P: UAE listed insurers post strong results S&P Global Ratings (S&P) said that UAE s publicly listed insurers posted strong growth in gross premiums written (GPW) and net profits in 1H2017, exceeding its expectations, in a report published titled, "United Arab Emirates Listed Insurers' Strong 2017 Midyear Results Propelled By Regulatory Change." S&P s Credit Analyst, Emir Mujkic said, "We believe this growth can be largely attributed to two key regulatory initiatives namely, rate increases in motor insurance, which are the result of new unified motor policy that the UAE Insurance Authority introduced in January 2017, and the final stage in the implementation of compulsory medical insurance in Dubai, which has increased the number of policyholders under this scheme." (GulfBase.com) Dubai draws AED151bn realty investment Dubai Land Department s Director General, Sultan Butti bin Mejren said, 217 nationalities have invested total of AED151bn in Dubai s real estate market. This demonstrates the confidence that the world has in our real estate environment, which is characterized by strong regulatory system that provides safety and security for all parties. (GulfBase.com) Shuaa Capital in talks to re-enter in Egypt Dubai-listed Shuaa Capital announced it was taking steps for its securities business to re-enter in Egypt. It has formally begun discussions with Egyptian regulators in order to reintroduce its securities business into the Egyptian market. The decision to restart brokerage operations in Egypt, which were suspended after the global financial crisis, is part of the group s long-term growth strategy. Shuaa Capital said the decision reflects its belief in the fundamentals of the Egyptian market and the abundance of opportunities there. (GulfBase.com) ADNOC plans 10% cut in October oil sales Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) told customers it would cut October crude allocations by 10% from its Murban, Das, Upper Zakum term agreements, UAE s Energy Minister, Suhail Al-Mazrouei said. (Bloomberg) Investments in Salalah Free Zone top $5.6bn in Oman Investments in Salalah Free Zone soared to an impressive $5.6bn. The figure includes more than $1.3bn in capital investments committed this year alone by Oman Oil Company. The investments will contribute to the execution of two vital midstream and downstream projects, a Liquefied Petroleum Gas extraction plant valued at $830mn and an estimated $450mn ammonia venture. (GulfBase.com) SMC secures funding for ammonia project Salalah Methanol Company (SMC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Oman Oil Company, celebrated the financial closure for Salalah Ammonia Plant, a sustainable project that will significantly contribute to the development of downstream sector in Dhofar Governorate and the Sultanate s diversification plans. (GulfBase.com) Page 4 of 5

5 Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 QSE Index S&P Pan Arab S&P GCC 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% (0.5%) 0.5% Saudi Arabia 0.1% Qatar (0.1%) (0.1%) Kuwait Bahrain 0.8% Oman 0.1% Abu Dhabi 0.3% Dubai Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Asset/Currency Performance Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D%* WTD%* YTD%* Gold/Ounce 1, MSCI World Index 1, Silver/Ounce DJ Industrial 21, (0.0) (0.0) 10.4 Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel (FM Future) (1.0) (1.0) (8.7) S&P 500 2, Crude Oil (WTI)/Barrel (FM Future) (2.7) (2.7) (13.3) NASDAQ 100 6, Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu 2.93 (0.2) (0.2) (20.6) STOXX LPG Propane (Arab Gulf)/Ton (0.3) (0.3) 8.4 DAX 12, LPG Butane (Arab Gulf)/Ton (10.6) FTSE 100 # 7, Euro CAC 40 5, Yen (0.1) (0.1) (6.6) Nikkei 19, (0.0) (0.0) 8.7 GBP MSCI EM 1, (0.0) (0.0) 25.8 CHF SHANGHAI SE Composite 3, AUD HANG SENG 27, USD Index (0.6) (0.6) (9.8) BSE SENSEX 31, RUB (0.3) (0.3) (5.0) Bovespa 71, (0.5) (0.5) 21.4 BRL 0.32 (0.3) (0.3) 2.7 RTS 1, (7.3) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg (*$ adjusted returns, # Market closed on August 28, 2017) Contacts Saugata Sarkar, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) Tel: (+974) Tel: (+974) saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa Mohamed Abo Daff QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) Tel: (+974) PO Box mohd.abodaff@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. ( QNBFS ) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5