Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 November 2014

Transcription

1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 28 November 2014 Weekly Credit Update Headlines Debt issued by European corporates heads for post-crisis high Smoke signals from the ECB to extend asset purchase programme Lower-for-longer scenario for both interest rates and credit spreads on the cards S&P s proposes new rating criteria regarding senior bank ratings OPEC decision not expected to negatively affect the broader credit market (for now) Contents Market commentary 1 Selected charts 4 Recently published research 6 Official and shadow ratings 7 ISS successfully launched a 5Y and 10Y dual tranche EUR Benchmark Market commentary Over the past week, the Itraxx main index (investment grade) more or less stayed flat at 59bp while the Itraxx crossover index (high yield) tightened by 14bp w/w. This week started with several articles illustrating the temperature of the European credit markets. First, Fitch reported that the amount of new debt bonds and loans issued by European companies is heading for a post-crisis high in Lower funding costs are driving continued refinancing and M&A activity is heating up. The value of M&A activity was up 25% to USD1tn in the first three quarters of 2014, boosting demand for corporate funding. Syndicated loans in Europe are up 23% YTD and corporate bond issuance is down 5% y/y. A strong Q4 bond pipeline could still put 2014 close to the EUR500bn annual record of According to Fitch, corporate bond funding now accounts for some 83% of the total new debt of European corporates in developed markets. Interestingly, corporates in the eurozone periphery have also continued to issue bonds at a brisk pace, maintaining the bond ratio at some 40% of total funding on par with corporate bond ratios seen in Germany, France and the UK. Given the continued deleveraging of banks in Italy and Spain, importantly the bond market seems to be closing the corporations funding gap. Another interesting point of the week was the smoke signals that the ECB sent to the market. They indicated a will to possibly broaden the scope of the current asset purchase program (is QE4 underway?). If executed, the ECB stands with the grand challenge of selecting which assets to buy. The ECB is already loading up on European covered bonds and recently started buying asset-backed securities. Covered bond issuance in the EU is negative by EUR22bn so far in 2014, which is why further purchase possibilities within this asset class by the ECB will be significantly more challenging going forward. According to the smoke signals, the ECB is considering including the purchase of other assets such as government bonds (highly controversial and legally complex) and/or the direct purchase of corporate bonds (which carry more credit risk and are disliked by Bundesbank for valuation reasons). In the week, it seemed as though the market started to speculate that corporate bonds would be included under a possible new asset purchase programme. itraxx Europe (investment grade) itraxx Crossover (high yield) Senior Analyst Niklas Ripa niklas.ripa@danskebank.com Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 10 of this report.

2 We saw tightening in HY indices and investors trading out of tightly trading high quality IG issuers (for example, some of the Scandi names) and into higher yielding issuers from the periphery countries. Time will show whether the ECB will release the fireworks in the corporate bond universe and the eventual effects of such actions. For now, it seems that more compression of spreads has been the recent outcome. Whether the ECB finally decides to enact a new QE programme or not will depend on whether positive inflation and growth expectations can be ignited shortly. In our view, the continued ECB easing mode should support a lower-for-longer scenario for both European interest rates and credit spreads going into the New Year. On a final note on this theme, German 10-year interest rates hit a record bottom this week with a yield of 0.70%. Following the recent weeks regulatory proposals to include significant additional lossabsorbing capital to avoid future tax payer bailouts, S&P s published a request for comment with regard to new bank rating criteria. S&P s criteria would be applicable to banking groups that are headed either by an operating company or by a non-operating holding company (read: all regulatory, important banks). Specifically, S&P s proposes to notch up the rating on banks with additional bail-in capital in case of a restructuring event. S&P s specifically proposes to raise the issuer credit rating to one-notch above the stand-alone credit profile if such additional loss absorption cushion consistently remains in the range of 5-6% of S&P s calculated RWA and a two-notch uplift if such cushion is in the range of 8-10%. S&P s expects the new criteria to lead to a limited amount of rating changes directly. However, over time, any additional loss absorption capacity could replace any rating uplift granted to the banks ratings due to the inclusion of possible extraordinary government support. In turn, this may imply the risk of a downgrade of senior debt issued out of holding company structures, as no extraordinary government support would be likely to be included in such ratings over time. So far, the European senior financials have been almost unscathed by any of the new regulatory loss-absorption proposals presented over the past weeks, while the Tier-2 sub debt market has suffered and has stayed rather illiquid. However, the discount between senior operating bank bonds and holdco bank bonds seems to have widened by up to some 40bp over the past month, which is why the market now realises that there will be regulatory subordination risk in the bank holdco senior bonds as no extraordinary government support may be forthcoming in case of a non-viability event in the future. This week we saw strong US GDP figures and an interesting outcome of the gathering of the 12 nations that are members of the OPEC group. The OPEC group decided to maintain its collective production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day despite an oil price drop so far this year of some 35%. We doubt that the decision taken by the OPEC nations (for now) will significantly affect the credit spreads of the broader euro corporate bond market. However, it seems obvious that if the oil price declines are persistent for years to come, many oil/drilling companies and related subsector companies (for example, oil field services) and banks exposed to such credits may be severely affected. The primary market was fairly active with new issues across the corporate space, cf. table enclosed below. Following a 10-year issuance break, we saw the Danish global facility service company ISS (BBB-/Baa3) return to the EUR corporate bond market and successfully issue a dual-tranche EUR benchmark structure. The purpose of the transaction was to refinance the existing banking debt and diversify the funding structure. The transaction represents both the largest Nordic BBB- rated corporate issue and the lowest achieved benchmark coupons on a five- and 10-year dual tranche transaction by any Nordic corporate ever November

3 In addition, we can highlight that the Danish capital goods company Danfoss (BBB/NR) is currently on a roadshow meeting European corporate bond investors. Danfoss is a significant global capital goods company and a leader within technical and mechanical components towards various industries. Selected issues Name Rating Coupon Cur. Tenor Size Spread* ISS Global BBB- /Baa % EUR 5Y 700 MS + 75 ISS Global BBB- /Baa % EUR 10Y 500 MS Victoria Park NR FRN SEK 3Y 400m Sti Telefonica Europe BB % EUR Perp 850m MS +380 Repsol Int. BBB 2.250% EUR 12Y 500 MS +113 Glaxosmithkline A+/A2 1,375% EUR 5Y 1000 MS +33 Glaxosmithkline A+/A % EUR 10Y 1500 MS +55 Scania A % SEK 4Y 650m - Scania A- FRN SEK 4Y 1350 Sti +40. Size in million, ratings are issue ratings from S&P/Moody s/fitch Trade recommendations See the table below for our current trading ideas. We acknowledge that the credit market in general and the Nordic in particular is not as liquid as other markets, which may affect the possibility to, for example, short a specific bond. Thus, please see our strategies below as ideas and input into your own investment process. New strategies for this week are detailed on page five of this report. Last week, we added the Nynas and Volvo trade ideas, cf. table enclosed below. Past strategies Type Trade Idea Outright VLVY' 17 or VLVY'19 We see the VLVY cash curve at attractively valued and an (uncertain) downgrade is more than priced in to spreads Outright NYNAAB '18 NYNAAB '18's, which we see as 'B+' indicatively trade way too cheap relative to the industrial 'B+' curve Source: Danske Bank Markets Opened 27 nov 2014 Start spread 73 Opened 25 nov 2014 Start spread 668 Outright COMHSS '19 COMHSS '19 looks cheap compared to other rated and unrated issues in SEK. Trades like a B+, but is officially Opened 19 nov 2014 rated BB- Start spread 450 Curve spread Switch from SKFBSS '19 to SKF s 2020s and 2018s offer attractive value relative to Opened 18 nov 2014 SKFBSS '18 or '20 the rating ( BBB+ NO and Baa1 S) Downgrade seems priced in already Start spread 2 Outright SAABAB '19 Trading wider than the BBB+ shadow rating would imply Opened 13 nov 2014 Curve spread Sector spread Swith from STENA '19 to STENA '20 Switch from VLVY '19 to METSO '19 Stena 2020 cheap compared with overall Stena credit curve and the Stena 2019 bond. Metso trading wider than BBB rating suggests. Metso 19s offer substantial pick-up to Volvo s 19s (neg outlook). Outright EWOSAS '20 Mispriced due to lack of understanding of business model Start spread 115 Opened 24 okt 2014 Start spread 126 Opened 20 okt 2014 Start spread -5 Opened 20 okt 2014 Start spread November

4 Selected charts itraxx (Europe) vs CDX (US) Investment grade corporate yields Nordic corporates vs itraxx Nordic banks 5Y CDS spreads Corporate BBB bond yield vs EuroSTOXX dividend yield 3M Libor OIS spreads Financials spread vs non-financials (Industrials), A-rated 4 28 November

5 Europe fund flows Sweden fund flows Norway fund flows Source: Macrobond Source: Macrobond Source: Macrobond 5 28 November

6 Recently published research Akelius Q Credit Update, 27 November 2014 Akelius Residential Property presented a good set of results, with continued growth in rental income and earnings. We maintain our credit view of Akelius and its bonds at BB+/BB, respectively, with a positive outlook. Volvo (EUR) - Relative value idea, 27 November 2014 The Volvo curve trades wide, in our view. A downgrade to 'BBB-' seems to be fully priced in, limiting the downside from a potential downgrade. We recommend investors buy the EUR-denominated VLVY 17 or 19 bonds. Alternatively, investors can sell 5Y protection on VLVY for an even greater pick-up relative to the cash curve. Nynas 2018s (SEK) Relative value idea, 25 November 2014 Nynas has just released strong Q3 14 numbers, taking adjusted credit metrics to strong levels for the current 'B+' indicative rating. The Nynas FRN 2018s in SEK trade very attractively compared with other 'B+' rated industrials. Cyclicality, illiquidity and unrated premiums in bonds cannot justify the current spread level of DM+666bp. DFDS Q Credit Update, 21 November 2014 DFDS reported a solid Q3 14 result. We continue to view DFDS s credit profile as commensurate with a 'BBB-' indicative rating despite our expectation of increased shareholder remuneration going forward. The FRN bonds issued in NOK are currently priced fairly at 25-30bp above a 'BBB-' credit curve. Given the 'missing official rating discount' in the pricing of the DKK FRN 2019 bond, we regard this bond as tightly priced. We recommend investors able to hold NOK to consider switching from the DKK FRN 2019 bond and into the NOK FRN 2018 bond. Com Hem (SEK) - Relative value idea, 19 November 2014 Compared with other rated and unrated issues in the SEK universe, COMHSS looks cheap and trades in line with or somewhat wider than names in the B+ area. SKF switch idea, 18 November 2014 The SKF 2019s trade too tight, in our view. We see more value in the SKF 2020s and 2018s. SKF is rated 'BBB+' and 'Baa1' by Moody's. S&P's recently put SKF on negative outlook citing an unexpectedly slow recovery in credit metrics following the acquisition of Kaydon. SKF 2020 and SKF 2018 trade at fair value for a 'BBB' indicating limited downside should SKF be downgraded one notch and potential upside if SKF avoids the downgrade. We recommend investors switch out of the SKF2019s and into either SKF2018s or SKF2020s depending on risk tolerance November

7 Ratings from Standard & Poor s, Moody s and Fitch and Danske Bank markets shadow ratings Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Analyst(s) Recomm. Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Ahlstrom Oyj B+ Stable Mads Rosendal Akelius Residential Ab BB+ Pos BB Louis Landeman Ambu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting BUY Arla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads Rosendal Atlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal SELL Avinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Ola Heldal HOLD Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Bank Norwegian As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Beerenberg Holdco Ii As B+ Stable Øyvind Mossige Bw Offshore BB+ Stable Øyvind Mossige Cargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Mads Rosendal Carlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Stable BBB Stable Brian Børsting SELL Cermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar Bakken Citycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Louis Landeman Color Group As BB- Stable B+ Niklas Ripa Com Hem Holding Ab BB- Stable Ola Heldal Danske Bank A/S A Neg Baa1 Pos A Stable Dfds A/S BB+ Stable Brian Børsting Dlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads Rosendal Dna Ltd BBB- Stable Ola Heldal Dnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLD Dong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLD Dsv A/S BBB Stable Brian Børsting Eg Holding B Stable Jakob Magnussen Eika Boligkreditt As A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Eika Gruppen As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Electrolux Ab BBB Stable Wr WD Brian Børsting HOLD Elisa Oyj BBB Pos Baa2 Stable Ola Heldal BUY Entra Eiendom As A- Stable Ola Heldal Farstad Shipping Asa BB Neg BB- Bjørn Kristian Røed Fingrid Oyj A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable Jakob Magnussen BUY Finnair Oyj BB Stable Brian Børsting Fortum Oyj A- Neg A2 Neg A- Neg Jakob Magnussen SELL Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med St BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen Fred Olsen Energy Asa BB+ Neg Sondre Stormyr G4S Plc BBB- Stable Brian Børsting BUY Getinge Ab BB+ Neg Louis Landeman Heimstaden Ab BB Stable BB- Louis Landeman Hemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable BBB Louis Landeman Hoist Kredit Ab BB- Stable B+ Gabriel Bergin Husqvarna Ab BBB- Pos Louis Landeman Ikano Bank Ab BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Investor Ab AA- Stable A1 Stable Brian Børsting BUY Iss A/S BBB- Stable Brian Børsting HOLD J Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- Bjørn Kristian Røed Jernhusen Ab A- Stable Gabriel Bergin Jyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1 Neg Thomas M. Hovard BUY Kesko Oyj BBB Stable Mads Rosendal Klaveness Ship Holding As BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian Røed Meda Ab BB- Stable Louis Landeman Metsa Board Oyj B+ Pos B2 Pos Mads Rosendal Metso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Mads Rosendal HOLD Ncc Ab BBB- Stable Louis Landeman Neste Oil Oyj BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLD Nokia Oyj BB Pos Ba2 Pos BB Stable Ola Heldal HOLD Nokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen Nordea Bank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELL North Atlantic Drilling Ltd BB Stable BB- Sondre Stormyr Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa BB- Stable B+ Brian Børsting Norwegian Property Asa BBB- Stable Ola Heldal Nykredit Bank A/S A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLD Nynas Group B+ Stable B+ Jakob Magnussen Odfjell Se B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian Røed Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal Olympic Shipping As B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian Røed Orkla Asa BBB+ Pos Ola Heldal Outokumpu Oyj B- Pos Mads Rosendal Pohjola Bank Oyj AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELL Posten Norge As A- Stable Ola Heldal Postnord Ab BBB+ Stable Gabriel Bergin Source: Standard & Poor s, Moody s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets 7 28 November

8 Ratings from Standard & Poor s, Moody s and Fitch and Danske Bank markets shadow ratings Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Analyst(s) Recomm. Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Prosafe Se BB Stable Øyvind Mossige Ramirent Oyj BB+ Stable Brian Børsting Saab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr Louis Landeman Sampo Oyj Baa2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLD Sandnes Sparebank BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Sandvik Ab BBB Neg Mads Rosendal HOLD Sas Ab B- Stable Wr Pos Brian Børsting Sbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLD Scania Ab A- Stable Mads Rosendal HOLD Schibsted Asa BBB Stable Ola Heldal Seadrill Ltd BB+ Stable BB Sondre Stormyr Securitas Ab BBB Stable Wr Brian Børsting HOLD Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUY Skanska Ab BBB+ Stable Louis Landeman Skf Ab BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal SELL Solstad Offshore Asa BB- Stable B+ Øyvind Mossige Spar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As A- Stable Lars Holm Sparebank 1 Nord Norge A2 Neg A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLD Sparebank 1 Smn A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLD Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLD Sponda Oyj BBB- Stable Louis Landeman St1 Nordic Oy BB Stable Jakob Magnussen Statkraft Sf A- Stable Aaa Stable Jakob Magnussen BUY Statnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLD Statoil Asa AA- Stable Aa2 Stable Jakob Magnussen SELL Steen & Strom As BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal Stena Ab BB Stable B2 Stable Brian Børsting BUY Stockmann Oyj Abp B+ Stable Mads Rosendal Stolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB Bjørn Kristian Røed Stora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Stable WD Mads Rosendal HOLD Storebrand Bank Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ Neg Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Swedavia Ab A- Stable Gabriel Bergin Swedbank Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUY Swedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Brian Børsting HOLD Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis Landeman Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca A- Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal BUY Svenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLD Sydbank A/S Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm BUY Tallink Group As BB Stable BB- Jakob Magnussen Tdc A/S BBB Neg Baa3 Stable BBB Stable Ola Heldal HOLD Teekay Offshore Partners Lp BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian Røed Tele2 Ab BBB Stable Ola Heldal Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Neg Ola Heldal HOLD Telenor Asa A Stable A3 Stable Ola Heldal HOLD Teliasonera Ab A- Stable A3 Neg A- Stable Ola Heldal SELL Teollisuuden Voima Oyj BBB Neg Wr BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen BUY Thon Holding As BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal Tine Sa BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal Upm-Kymmene Oyj BB+ Stable Ba1 Stable WD Mads Rosendal HOLD Vasakronan Ab A- Stable Louis Landeman Vattenfall Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg Jakob Magnussen HOLD Vestas Wind Systems A/S BBB- Pos Niklas Ripa BUY Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa BBB- Stable Bjørn Kristian Røed Volvo Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Mads Rosendal HOLD Yit Oyj B Neg Louis Landeman Source: Standard & Poor s, Moody s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets 8 28 November

9 Fixed Income Credit Research Thomas Hovard Head of Credit Research (+45) Louis Landeman TMT, Industrials (+46) llan@danskebank.com Henrik René Andresen Credit Portfolios (+45) hena@danskebank.com Mads Rosendal Industrials, Pulp & Paper (+45) madro@danskebank.com Jakob Magnussen Utilities, Energy (+45) jakja@danskebank.com Brian Børsting Industrials (+45) brbr@danskebank.com Lars Holm Financials (+45) laho@danskebank.dk Gabriel Bergin Strategy, Industrials (+46) gabe@danskebank.com Niklas Ripa High Yield, Industrials (+45) niri@danskebank.com Bjørn Kristian Røed Shipping (+47) bred@danskebank.com Ola Heldal TMT (+47) olh@danskebank.com Øyvind Mossige Oil services (+47) omss@danskebank.com Sondre Dale Stormyr Offshore rigs (+47) sost@danskebank.com Knut-Ivar Bakken Fish farming (+47) knb@danskebank.com Find the latest Credit Research Danske Bank Markets: Bloomberg: DNSK<GO> 9 28 November

10 Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). The author of the research report is Niklas Ripa, Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries are engaged in commercial banking, securities underwriting, dealing, trading, brokerage, investment management, investment banking, custody and other financial services activities, may be a lender to the companies mentioned in this publication and have whatever rights are available to a creditor under applicable law and the applicable loan and credit agreements. At any time, Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries may have credit or other information regarding the companies mentioned in this publication that is not available to or may not be used by the personnel responsible for the preparation of this report, which might affect the analysis and opinions expressed in this research report. See for further disclosures and information. General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States November

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