Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 December 2013
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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 December 2013 Weekly Credit Update Headlines Primary market activity slowed significantly with year-end approaching Fed tapering decision turned out to be dovish! EBA transparency exercise confirms that Nordic banks are strongly capitalised 2014: we expect positive returns albeit at lower levels than in 2013 Market commentary During the past week, new issue activity slowed significantly as year-end is rapidly approaching with investors having become less active at the buying end of the market, increasingly focusing on performance preservation. In the secondary market, credit indices tightened despite the long-awaited Fed decision to start tapering by lowering bond purchases by USD10bn to USD75bn per month. The Fed gave no preset course for future tapering but at the press conference Ben Bernanke said that he expected a similar pace of tapering at future meetings and that QE would end by the end of next year. He also highlighted that the Fed could pause tapering if data slowed and, on the other hand, increase the pace should growth pick up more strongly. Clearly, the Fed is trying to keep as much flexibility as possible. At the same time, the language on inflation was softened and the Fed kept a cautious language on the economy as well which the market interpreted as an overall dovish tone. For Nordic banks, the EBA transparency exercise was another sign of strength. The exercise confirmed that the Nordic banks are among the best capitalised banks in Europe and we note that the four Danish banks included have the highest average capitalisation. itraxx Europe (investment grade) Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets itraxx Crossover (high yield) During the week, a couple of high-yield non-rated names took advantage of the positive general market sentiment with new issuance both in Nordic local currencies and in EUR. Looking back at the year that has passed, issuance has been substantial. In the corporate space, EUR investment grade market looks poised to have delivered volumes at par with last year, while rated high-yield volumes are already the largest for a calendar year ever. We continue to see positive returns in the credit market in 2014 albeit at lower levels than recorded in 2013 supported by the improving macroeconomic fundamentals in Europe and globally, continued high focus from companies in general on preserving balance sheet strength and continued solid demand from investors. We will publish our full 2014 Credit Outlook at the beginning of January. Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues during the week Name Rating Coupon* Maturity Currency Size Spread/YTM Swedbank AB A+/A1 4% 4Y SEK 350m 25bp Estea Logistic Prp NR 7% 5Y SEK 276m 485bp Copasa NR 7.5% 5Y EUR 50m 668bp Notes: Ratings are Moody's and Standard & Poor s corporate/bank ratings (i.e not issue ratings that can be lower) * Mid-swaps for fixed, discount margin for floating + Spread over domestic reference rate or over relevant mid-swaps. Source: Informa Global Markets, Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Senior Credit Analyst Brian Børsting brbr@danskebank.com
2 EUR 5Y corporate benchmarks yields EUR investment grade spreads (ASW) ML EUR High yield index ML EUR HY cash indices Nordic banks 5Y CDS spreads 3M LIBOR-OIS spread bp Danske Bank Nordea DNB SEB Handelsbanken Swedbank nov-12 jan-13 mar-13 maj-13 jul-13 sep-13 Source: Danske Bank Markets 2 20 December 2013
3 Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Analyst Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Akelius Fastigheter Ab BB+ Pos BB Louis Landeman Ambu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting Arla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads Rosendal Atlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal Avinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Åse Haagensen Carlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Stable BBB Stable Brian Børsting Color Group As BB- Stable B+ Kasper F. Larsen Danske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1 Pos A Stable Dlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads Rosendal Dfds A/S BB+ Stable Kasper F. Larsen Dna Ltd BBB- Stable Kasper F. Larsen Dnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Dong Energy A/S BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable BBB+ Neg Jakob Magnussen Dsv A/S BBB Stable Brian Børsting Eg Holding B Stable Jakob Magnussen Electrolux Ab BBB+ Neg Wr WD Brian Børsting Elisa Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Louis Landeman Finnair Oyj BB Stable Brian Børsting Fingrid Oyj AA- Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable Jakob Magnussen Fortum Oyj A- Neg A2 Neg A- Neg Jakob Magnussen Fred Olsen Energy Asa BB+ Stable Åse Haagensen G4S Plc BBB- Stable Brian Børsting Getinge Ab BBB- Stable Louis Landeman Hemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable Wiveca Swarting Husqvarna Ab BBB- Stable Louis Landeman Investor Ab AA- Stable A1 Stable Brian Børsting Iss A/S BB Pos B1 Pos Brian Børsting Jernhusen Ab A- Stable Gabriel Bergin J Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- Åse Haagensen Jyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1 Stable Thomas M. Hovard Kesko Oyj BBB Stable Mads Rosendal Meda Ab BB Stable Louis Landeman Metso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Neg Mads Rosendal Mjolby-Svartadalen Energi Ab BBB+ Watch Louis Landeman Ncc Ab BBB- Stable Louis Landeman Neste Oil Oyj BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen Nokia Oyj B+ B1 Develop BB- Louis Landeman Nokia Siemens Networks Finance Bv B1 Louis Landeman Nokian Renkaat Oyj A Stable Jakob Magnussen Nordea Bank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Stable AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm North Atlantic Drilling Ltd BB Stable BB- Åse Haagensen Norwegian Property Asa BBB- Stable Nils Aspeli Nykredit Bank A/S A+ Neg Baa2U Neg A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Odfjell Se B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian Røed Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Nils Aspeli Outokumpu Oyj B- Pos Mads Rosendal Orkla Asa BBB+ Pos Nils Aspeli Pohjola Bank Plc AA- Neg Aa3 Stable A+ T. Hovard / L. Holm Postnord Ab BBB+ Stable Gabriel Bergin Prosafe Se BB Stable Åse Haagensen Ramirent Oyj BB+ Stable Brian Børsting Saab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr Wiveca Swarting Sampo Baa2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Sandvik Ab BBB+ Stable Mads Rosendal Sas Ab B- Stable Wr Pos Brian Børsting Sbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Scania Ab A- Pos Mads Rosendal Seadrill Ltd BB+ Stable BB Åse Haagensen Securitas Ab BBB Stable Wr Brian Børsting Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Neg A1 Stable A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Skanska Ab BBB+ Stable Louis Landeman Skf Ab BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal Sparebank 1 Nord Norge A2 Stable A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Sparebank 1 Smn A2 Stable A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Sparebank 1 Sr Bank Asa A2 Stable A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Spar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Sponda Oyj BBB- Stable Louis Landeman Statkraft Sf A- Stable Aaa Stable Jakob Magnussen Statnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable Jakob Magnussen Statoil Asa AA- Stable Aa2 Stable Jakob Magnussen Stena Ab BB Stable B2 Stable Brian Børsting Stockmann Oyj Abp BB- Stable Mads Rosendal Stolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB Bjørn Kristian Røed Stora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Neg BB- Stable Mads Rosendal Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Swedavia Ab A- Stable Gabriel Bergin Swedbank Ab A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Swedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Brian Børsting Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca BBB+ Pos Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis Landeman Svenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Stable AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Sydbank A/S Baa1 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm Tallink Group As BB Stable BB- Jakob Magnussen Talvivaara Mining Co Plc C Mads Rosendal Tdc A/S BBB Pos Baa2 Stable BBB Stable Louis Landeman Teekay Offshore Partners Lp BB- Stable B+ Kasper F. Larsen Tele2 Ab BBB Stable Louis Landeman Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Neg A3 Neg BBB+ Neg Louis Landeman Telenor Asa A- Pos A3 Stable Louis Landeman Teliasonera Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Stable Louis Landeman Teollisuuden Voima Oyj BBB Stable Wr BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen Thon Holding As BBB+ Stable Nils Aspeli Upm-Kymmene Oyj BB Stable Ba1 Stable BB Stable Mads Rosendal Vasakronan Ab BBB+ Stable Louis Landeman Vattenfall Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg Jakob Magnussen Vestas Wind Systems A/S BB Pos Kasper F. Larsen Volvo Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Mads Rosendal Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa BBB- Stable Bjørn Kristian Røed Yit Oyj BB+ Neg Louis Landeman 3 20 December 2013
4 Fixed Income Credit Research Thomas Hovard Head of Credit Research (+45) Louis Landeman TMT, Industrials (+46) llan@danskebank.com Åse Haagensen High Yield, Industrials (+47) ha@danskebank.com Mads Rosendal Industrials, Pulp & Paper (+45) madro@danskebank.com Jakob Magnussen Utilities, Energy (+45) jakja@danskebank.com Brian Børsting Industrials (+45) brbr@danskebank.com Lars Holm Financials (+45) laho@danskebank.dk Gabriel Bergin Strategy, Industrials (+46) gabe@danskebank.com Kasper From Larsen High Yield, TMT (+45) kasla@danskebank.com Bjørn Kristian Røed Shipping (+47) bred@danskebank.com Nils Henrik Aspeli Real Estate, Industrials (+47) nas@danskebank.com Wiveca Swarting Real Estate, Construction (+46) wsw@danskebank.com Sondre Dale Stormyr Offshore rigs (+47) sost@danskebank.com Find the latest Credit Research Danske Bank Markets: Bloomberg: DRCR<GO> 4 20 December 2013
5 Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). The authors of this research report Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of highquality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Danske Bank is a market maker and may hold positions in the financial instruments mentioned in this research report. Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries are engaged in commercial banking, securities underwriting, dealing, trading, brokerage, investment management, investment banking, custody and other financial services activities, may be a lender to the companies mentioned in this publication and have whatever rights are available to a creditor under applicable law and the applicable loan and credit agreements. At any time, Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries may have credit or other information regarding the companies mentioned in this publication that is not available to or may not be used by the personnel responsible for the preparation of this report, which might affect the analysis and opinions expressed in this research report. See for further disclosures and information. General disclaimer This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ( Relevant Financial Instruments ). The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report. The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report. This research report is not intended for retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States December 2013
6 This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank s prior written consent. Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to U.S. institutional investors. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-u.s. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non- U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission December 2013
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