Euro Inflation Research #2 ECB s core inflation forecast is too optimistic

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1 Investment Research General Market Conditions 6 March 2015 Euro Inflation Research #2 ECB s core inflation forecast is too optimistic The ECB yesterday published new inflation forecasts, including the first projection for 2017, and the ECB expects inflation to increase to close to 2%. The forecast for 2016 was, somewhat surprisingly, raised from 1.3% to 1.5%, probably reflecting the ECB expecting the QE programme to support inflation. Related to this, the new forecast includes the added impact of the non-standard monetary policy, which is not normally captured by the modelling framework. The ECB expects core inflation to increase above the historical average in The increase should be seen in light of a projected increase in wage growth. We see this as too optimistic, as the ECB expects only a gradual decline in the unemployment rate and there is a large amount of slack in the labour market. In the US, wage inflation remains subdued despite a rapid improvement in the unemployment rate following the recession. The ECB expects inflation close to 2% in 2017 The ECB s new inflation forecasts released yesterday showed that the ECB expects inflation to increase to below, but close to, 2% at the end of the forecast horizon, as it looks for inflation of 1.8% in The increase is driven mainly by higher core inflation. Euro inflation research This is the second paper in our series about inflation in the euro area. See also the following. Euro Inflation Research No. 2: Inflation to increase sharply this year, 5 March ECB s projection is above consensus Euro area forecasts GDP HICP GDP HICP GDP HICP Danske Bank Consensus ECB Source: Bloomberg, ECB, Danske Bank Markets Added to this, the ECB revised its inflation forecast higher for the first time in more than a year. In 2016, the ECB expects inflation of 1.5%, up from a forecast of 1.3% in the December staff projection. It is likely the revised inflation forecast reflects the new forecast including the additional impact of the non-standard monetary policy measures, which is not usually captured by the ECB s standard modelling framework. ECB revised its forecast for 2016 higher and expects inflation close to 2% in 2017 Source: ECB, Danske Bank Markets Senior Analyst Pernille Bomholdt Nielsen perni@danskebank.dk Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 4 of this report.

2 The ECB is too optimistic on its core inflation forecast The ECB expects core inflation to increase to 1.7% in 2017, which is above the historical average of around 1.5%. The ECB s forecast is above our forecast and in the ECB s core inflation projection is higher than our expectation. ECB s inflation forecast in 2017 is optimistic... mainly because of a too-optimistic core inflation forecast We believe the ECB s high core inflation forecast is due mainly to a projected increase in wage growth over the forecast horizon. The ECB argues this is driven by ongoing employment growth and some decline in the unemployment rate but we see this as too optimistic, as the unemployment rate is expected to decline only gradually and there is a large amount of slack in the labour market, which, in our view, will keep wage growth very subdued. Compared with the US, wage inflation remains subdued despite a rapid improvement in the unemployment rate following the recession. ECB forecasts higher wage growth this year We expect economic slack to keep wage growth subdued Source: ECB, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, ECB, Eurostat, Danske Bank Markets Part of this is also likely to reflect the expected impact of monetary policy easing, which is incorporated in the new projection from the ECB. Including this is likely to imply a smaller downward impact from the second-round effects on wages of the sharp fall in the oil price. According to the ECB, it expects limited second-round effects due to downward rigidities in wages and since the impact via automatic wage indexation systems should be small. We believe wages are likely to follow inflation and inflation expectations lower due to both wage indexation and lower negotiated wages, as the low inflation makes it easier for employers to argue for low nominal wage growth. 2 6 March

3 Upward sloping inflation forecast due to oil prices In line with our expectation, the ECB expects a sharp increase in inflation at the end of this year and the beginning of In Q3 15, the ECB expects inflation around 0.0% and in Q1 16 it projects it will increase to above 1.0%, before reaching 1.5% in Q2 16. According to the ECB, this should be the case due to the combination of the fading of the significant downward effects of the past declines in oil prices together with the upward effects of the assumed increases in oil prices (based on the upward sloping oil price futures curve) ECB expects a sharp increase in inflation......as the downward effect of the past oil price decline fades Source: Bloomberg, ECB, Danske Bank Markets Based on the oil price futures curve, the ECB forecasts energy price inflation will average -6.5% in 2015 and increase to +2.3% in 2016, before declining a bit in This is below our forecast for energy price inflation but could reflect the ECB s cut-off date of 11 February. Following the cut-off date, the inflation figure for February surprised on the upside, due mainly to higher commodity price inflation and, based on this, we have revised our inflation forecast for 2015 higher. In terms of food price inflation, the ECB expects it to increase over the forecast horizon. Its projection is above our forecast, particularly for This could be because we expect weak price pressure to limit the spillover from higher global food prices, as our forecasts for global food prices are close to or above the prices in the forward market. ECB s energy price inflation projection below our expectation ECB s food price inflation projection is above our forecast Source: ECCB, Eurostat, Danske Bank Markets 3 6 March

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