Denning Pryce Global Income Fund July 2016

Transcription

1 Denning Pryce Pty Ltd ABN AFSL Tel: Denning Pryce Global Income Fund July 206 Market Overview Stable financial conditions continued in July, dispelling the pessimism and confusion that surrounded the Brexit vote. With that, July marked one of the bigger rallies in global markets this year. The S&P500 and London FTSE 00 finished higher by circa 3.5, Germany s DAX up 6.79, Australia s S&P/ASX200 up 6.29 and Japan s Nikkei 225 up 6.38; strong performances across the board. The focus has now switched back to concerns around global growth, and what, if any, additional policy measures the respective global reserve banks can provide to stimulate further growth. Despite this cautious outlook, cash flow (and better returns) into emerging markets suggest that there is generally a pick-up in risk appetite. This shift in the risk landscape seems to be a consequence of the continuing chase for both growth and value returns in what is an extremely low interest rate environment. As has been the theme in recent times, the US economy continues to show signs of life. A larger than expected rebound in the Non-farm Payroll employment number proved that the disappointing May reading was the exception rather than norm. Within the space of a month it appears that a rate hike is once again back on the table. Janet Yellen as the head of the Federal Reserve has repeatedly stressed that the rates decision will be data-dependent, but uncertainty around the decision will stir financial markets and volatility. That said, the job market remains sound: inflation and wage growth will again be the determinant of a policy move. In the UK the Brexit vote had triggered a massive sector switch from stocks with heavy sterling-denominated assets and revenue to stocks with foreign revenue and with light asset-base. That exodus from domestic sectors such as REITs and Utilities was reversed to some degree in July. The immediate Brexit impact was absorbed and the long-term impact remains undetermined. Commodity prices have remained on a continuing positive track. With market tensions easing post Brexit, gold has been unable to reach the 400 level. Some key geopolitical risks are in the rear vision mirror which may lead to a consolidation in the gold price at current levels. Oil finished slightly above 40 after being impacted by a series of high inventory readings and supply recoveries. Given that supply and demand are more balanced, there is reduced probability of a significant oil price move. Volatility remains subdued as markets rallied throughout the month. Even as terrorist attacks have become more frequent, their regularity is having reduced effect on markets. In observing this trend we have looked to add positioning that will benefit from any sharp increase in volatility. Page

2 Table : Fund Performance Summary (Full unit performance detail and methodology is set out at Table 3) As at 3 July 206 Month Years p.a. 3 Years p.a. FYTD Since Inception p.a. DP Global Income Fund (Institutional Class unit) Fund benchmark MSCI Inception date is 25th July 20. Past performance is not indicative of future performance MSCI World Accumulation Index in Local Currency / 50 Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index Fund Commentary We currently hold circa 80 positions in international companies. Our net risk has oscillated recently between 50 and 60 and we have investments in the full range of MSCI sectors. We have added to our European position mainly through the healthcare and industrials sectors. Diversity across sectors and regions has helped the fund to a solid return for the month. European and British names in particular had excellent returns during July. Geographically, our weights remain spread across the various regions represented in the MSCI universe. We currently have approximately 62 of our risk in North America, and 28 in Europe and the UK, with 8.5 in Asia Pacific. The larger positions in the portfolio include Amazon (AMZN), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), IBM, Home Depot (HD), Pfizer (PFE), Nestle (NESN) and SAP in Germany. Each name makes up between -3 of the portfolio. The Fund maintained net long volatility exposures in several names - with volatility remaining low we remained a payer of premium as we headed into the US and European company reporting season. This provided us with elements of insurance for the portfolio, and upside participation. We have looked to add some longer-dated options (upside exposure) as we consider year-end and the much anticipated US election campaign. Investments Defensive names that had performed so well in June lagged somewhat over July as growth stocks took a turn in the spotlight. A combination of broadly in line company reports, and a slight increase in confidence around the timing of a future rate increase in the US, saw the defensive yield names remain largely unchanged during July. Generally speaking the reporting season has been relatively solid but it was perhaps unsurprising that these defensives would lag at some point. Exelon Corp. (EXC); Southern Co. (SO); Nextera Energy (NEE); Sydney Airports (SYD); Dominion Resources (D), Northrop Grumman (NOC); and AT &T (T), all traded relatively flat for July. We have continued to selectively write calls in several of these names. Certain names have performed well for the fund during the company reporting window. European names SAP; Siemens (SIE); Philips (PHIA); Astra Zeneca (AZN); BMW and Michelin (ML) the French tyre maker were some of the better stocks. In the US the standouts were in the tech and healthcare sectors where we have seen continued strong momentum in Amazon; Alphabet (Google); Hewlett Packard (HPE); Microsoft Page 2

3 (MSFT); Johnson and Johnson and Zimmer Biomet (ZBH), the US based medical equipment maker. These names have reported solid numbers and continue their recent strength. Johnson and Johnson continued its recent strong form, moving higher by 3.25 over the month. In reporting it beat expectations in revenue and earnings. Our long call position has now converted to stock and we will receive a 0.80c dividend in August. We have maintained various volatility positions which have again helped the Fund s performance. Positions in Newcrest Mining (NCM); ING (INGA); Gilead (GILD); Engie SA (ENGI); Lend Lease (LLC); DR Horton (DHI); and BP all benefited from large movements in the underlying share prices, allowing us to hedge positions after these significant moves. In BP we rolled a long call position up and out, taking profits as the stock traded from a pre-brexit June low of 3.58 to peak at Having rolled our calls the stock has fallen away to the low 4 s. Newcrest has been another name that has had a wide trading range, trading from the low $2 range to the mid $26 level. These moves highlight the opportunity of running a volatility strategy within a portfolio. We continue to look for, and add volatility positions into the portfolio. UK names continued to trade higher post the Brexit vote, the foreign earners being the major recipient of the rally, with AstraZeneca (AZN), Diageo (DGE), and Vodafone (VOD) all doing well. We have continued to strategically add short directional positions in the S&P500 offsetting our long equity holding in the US. With volatility trading at its cheapest level in the last ½ years and US presidential elections in November this is a good opportunity to position the fund for any potential downdraft. Table 2: Leading exposures Fund Top Ten by Exposure JNJ AMZN NESN ZBH PFE FTSEMIB SYK UPS IBM HD Page 3

4 Table 3 - Investor Information As at 3 July 206 Institutional Class Wholesale Class Retail Class Total Net Asset Value 2 $54,52,375. $2,856,03.6 $40, $57,409,093.4 Net Returns for the month 3 & APIR Code DPR0002AU ZUR0592AU ZUR059AU NAV Price 5 $.060 $.0376 $.0339 Redemption Price 6 $.0580 $.0355 $.038 Distribution cents per unit n/a n/a n/a Notes: Performance since inception is from 25 th July 20, and is measured to each full month end. Past Performance is not indicative of future performance. 2 The value of the Fund s assets less the liabilities of the Fund net of fees, costs and taxes. The Class NAV is the amount of the Fund NAV referable to the respective class. 3 Net returns are calculated using net asset value to net asset value, after fees and expenses and assuming reinvestment of income. 4 The buy/sell spread (currently / -0.20) is an estimate of the costs of buying or selling assets associated with an investment in, or withdrawal from, the Fund. This is not a fee paid to us and is reflected in the respective class unit price. 5 The respective Class NAV price is determined by calculating the NAV referable to the class divided by the number of units on issue in the relevant class. 6 The respective class redemption price is calculated by decreasing the relevant Class NAV price by the sell spread (currently 0.20). There are no related party status declarations to be made at this time. Unless otherwise stated, the source of all graphs and tables contained in this report is Denning Pryce. In addition, please note that the following information remains as set out in the PDS for the Fund dated 20 th May 205. Key service providers to the Fund The Fund s strategy The team of individuals who play a key role in the operation of the Fund Additional Important Information Denning Pryce Pty Limited ACN AFSL (Denning Pryce) is the investment manager of the Denning Pryce Global Income Fund (ARSN ) (Fund). One Managed Investment Funds Limited (ABN ) (AFSL ) is the responsibility entity of the Fund (OMIFL). The information contained in this document was not prepared by OMIFL but was prepared by other parties. While OMIFL has no reason to believe that the information is inaccurate, the truth or accuracy of the information contained therein cannot be warranted or guaranteed. Anyone reading this report must obtain and rely upon their own independent advice and inquiries. Investors should consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) issued by OMIFL before making any decision regarding the Fund. The PDS contains important information about investing in the Fund and it is important investors obtain and read a copy of the PDS before making a decision about whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. You should also consult a licensed financial adviser before making an investment decision in relation to the Fund. A copy of the current PDS and continuous disclosures may be obtained from or Denning Pryce believes that the information contained in this document is accurate when issued. Denning Pryce does not warrant that such information or advice is accurate, reliable, complete or up-to-date, and to the fullest extent permitted by law, disclaims all liability of Denning Pryce and its associates. This document should be regarded as general information only rather than advice. In preparing this document, Denning Pryce did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual person. The information contained in this document must not be copied or disclosed in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Denning Pryce, and Denning Pryce accept no liability whatsoever for the actions of third Page 4

5 parties in this respect. It is presented for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Any opinions expressed in this document constitute Denning Pryce s judgement at the time of issue and may be subject to change without notice. Denning Pryce is not obliged to update the information. The information must not be used by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and investigation. Neither Denning Pryce nor any of their directors, employees or agents accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or part of, or any omission, inadequacy or inaccuracy in, this document. OMIFL and Denning Pryce do not guarantee the performance of the Fund or the repayment of any investor s capital. To the extent permitted by law, neither OMIFL nor Denning Pryce, including their directors, senior executives, employees, consultants, advisers, officers or authorized representatives, are liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance placed on the contents of this document. Denning Pryce only provides services to wholesale clients, as defined in section 76G of the Corporations Act. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Information in this document is current as at 3 July 206. Third party data is owned by the applicable third party identified and is provided for your internal use only. Such data may not be reproduced or re-disseminated and may not be used to create any financial instruments, products or indices. Such data is provided without any warranties of any kind. Neither the third party data owner nor any other party involved in the publication of this document can be held liable for any error. Page 5