Volatility impacts as investors focus on protecting capital

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1 Volatility impacts as investors focus on protecting capital Broker Survey results March 2018 Schroders Australia has completed its third broker insights survey, diving into how brokers are investing. Volatility has pushed the need to protect capital to the top of the priority list. Key points: For the third survey in a row, the primary objective of investment strategy has changed to a focus on protecting capital Market outlook has moved away from stable, with an increase in both positive and negative outlooks being reported Implementation challenges remain the highest barrier to asset allocation change After a long period of stability, volatility returned to the markets at the start of 2017, and how that has changed perceptions is now evident in the third Schroders survey, now spanning more than a year of regular insights. The volatility has manifested itself in the rise in importance of protecting capital for clients, which has become the primary driver for brokers. This is the third time across the three surveys that a different primary objective has emerged. The October survey featured diversification as the primary objective, but that has fallen to third on the list today. Generating income remains the second most important consideration for investment decisions for the second consecutive survey. In the first report, in March 2017, maximising after-tax returns including franking credits was the second highest priority. Today, it comes in below portfolio diversification. Volatility impacts as investors focus on protecting capital 1

2 Preferred Vehicle Figure 1: Investment Objectives (in order of preference) Objective March 2018 Sept 2017 March 2017 Protect Capital Generate Income Establish a well-diversified portfolio that will rise in most, but not all, market conditions Maximise after-tax returns (including franking credits) Achieve an absolute return (say 6% to 8% p.a.) Beat the S&P/ ASX 200 index Source: Schroder Asset Allocation Survey August Change in importance compares rank from the March 2018 versus September 2017 and March Figure 2: Vehicles used to implement objectives ASX Listed Instruments There was almost no change in vehicles used to implement objectives with ASX listed instruments remaining the most popular choice, climbing a couple of percentage points to 75 per cent. Foreign Listed Stocks Unlisted Managed Funds Source: Schroder Asset Allocation Survey March 2018 Figure 3: Which vehicles on the ASX are preferred? This measures which vehicles are considered for investment it does not capture the allocation of each. 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Compared with September there has been a 10% drop in LICs as preferred investment vehicle and a corresponding increase in those preferring direct equities or hybrids. There has been little change in preferences for ETFs. Source: Schroder Asset Allocation Survey March % Direct Listed equities or investment hybrid companies securities Passive ETFs Active ETFs Warrants / options / futures Volatility impacts as investors focus on protecting capital 2

3 Figure 4: Current asset allocation being advised to your clients 9% 6% 9% 5% 4% 39% Australian Equities Global Equities Property Hybrids Global Bonds The level of investment in Australian equities has fallen for the third survey in a row. In March 2017, 55 per cent of allocations were in Australian equities, which fell to 45 per cent in September last year and has decreased again to 39 per cent for this report. Cash 9% Unlisted Assets 20% Other Source: Schroder Asset Allocation Survey March May not sum to a hundred Figure 5: How often do you change a client s asset allocation? 42% 4% 15% Frequently (3-6 months or less) At least annually Periodically (every couple of years) There was a decrease in the most frequent changes to asset allocation (3-6 months or less) from 22% to 15% and an increase at the other end with 4% of respondents citing never changing asset allocation. There was little change in respondents citing at least annual or longer periodic changes. Never 40% Source: Schroder Asset Allocation Survey March May not sum to a hundred Figure 6: What is the usual driver of an AA change? 13% 8% 27% Change in clients circumstances Change to market conditions Out/under performance of a particular exposure What is the most striking is the driver of the AA change with market related factors (either a change in market conditions or out/under performance of an investment) being the main driver for 65% of respondents. This was a large increase from 57% in the September survey and likely a reflection of increased market volatility. 52% Recommendation from internal/external advice Source: Schroder Asset Allocation Survey March2018. May not sum to a hundred Volatility impacts as investors focus on protecting capital 3

4 Figure 7: What are the key barriers to making more frequent rebalancing decisions on behalf of your clients? 2% 19% 31% Compliance hurdles Implementation challenges Skill set gaps The barriers to making more frequent allocation changes have shifted away from compliance hurdles (down 12 per cent to 31 per cent) and towards time restraints (6 per cent to 19 per cent). However, implementation challenges remains the largest hurdle to overcome (48 per cent). Time poor 48% Source: Schroder Asset Allocation Survey March May not sum to a hundred Figure 8: What are your market expectations over the next 3 years? 37.5% 37.5% Stable Decreasing When it comes to market expectations, there has been more polarisation with a shift from the 50% of respondents who expected a stable outlook in the September survey to one where there has been an increase in both positive and negative outlooks. Increasing 25.0% Source: Schroder Asset Allocation Survey March May not sum to a hundred Figure 9: How do you construct the defensive part of your portfolio? 7% 22% 45% Cash Hybrids Direct Bonds Finally with an increasing number of respondents with a negative market outlook it is interesting to see how brokers construct the defensive part of client portfolios. Cash is the preferred defensive asset for 45% of respondents although it is concerning that 25% select hybrid securities for their defensive exposure. All of the above 25% Source: Schroder Asset Allocation Survey March May not sum to a hundred Volatility impacts as investors focus on protecting capital 4

5 How is Schroders positioned in our Real Return Active ETF (ASX: GROW)? Our focus on managing drawdown risk is particularly relevant for this most recent survey where brokers cited protecting capital as the number one priority for their clients. Our approach to inflation plus (or real return) investing is to choose the portfolio that has the highest probability of achieving the required return and capital protection objective over our three-year investment horizon, with the least expected variability around this objective. Figure 10: Real Return (ASX: GROW) Portfolio Australian Equities 33% 16% Global Equities Higher Yielding Credit 12% Australian Fixed Income Global Fixed Income 10% 8% 11% 12% Mortgages and Floating Rate Credit Cash and Short Term Securities* Source: Schroder Asset Allocation Survey March May not sum to a hundred due to rounding error. We have seen some market repricing, which has lifted some of our return expectations particularly in fixed income assets, though we continue to expect ongoing low returns across the investment universe overall. We remain defensively positioned, with around 40% of the portfolio in equities and higher yielding credit, and a meaningful allocation to investment grade fixed income, cash and other short term securities. GROW mirrors the positions of the unlisted managed fund strategy (Schroder Real Return CPI+5% Fund). Performance of GROW has closely tracked that of the unlisted fund since inception. Period 9 August 2016 to 31 May 2018 Return (% pa) Standard Deviation (% pa) Max Drawdown (%) Sharpe Ratio GROW Unlisted Real Return Fund S&P/ASX 200 TR AUD Bloomberg AusBond Composite Index Source: Morningstar Direct based on daily data net of fees, performance from inception 9 August 2016 to 31 May 2018 Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. * The survey results were based on 48 responses received from brokers in April Volatility impacts as investors focus on protecting capital 5

6 Important Information: Disclaimer: Investment in the Schroder Real Return Fund can be made by buying units on the ASX. The Fund's Product Disclosure Statement provides information on the Fund and should be read in its entirety before making a decision to invest. This document is intended solely for the information of the person to whom it is provided by Schroder Investment Management Australia Limited (ABN , AFSL ) ( Schroders ). It should not be relied on by any person for the purposes of making investment decisions. Total returns are calculated using end of month NAV prices as quoted on the ASX, after fees and expenses, and assuming reinvestment of income. Gross returns are calculated using end of month NAV prices as quoted on the ASX. Opinions constitute our judgement at the time of issue and are subject to change. The repayment of capital and the performance of the portfolio are not guaranteed by Schroders or any other party. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Unless otherwise stated the source for all graphs and tables contained in this Report is Schroders. This document does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. For security reasons telephone calls may be taped. Volatility impacts as investors focus on protecting capital 6