Diversification paramount Schroders asset allocation survey

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1 Diversification paramount Schroders asset allocation survey Broker Survey results October 2017 Schroders has undertaken its second survey of Australian brokers to gain insight into their asset allocation views. Key findings include: Diversification replaces growth as primary driver. ASX listed stocks dominant; while direct equity and hybrids are the most popular ASX vehicles there was a clear move towards LICs at the expense of direct shares and active ETFs. Asset allocation decisions have picked up at the margin, with 22% changing asset allocation in the preceding six months, up from 14 per cent. Twice as many respondents think increased returns are more likely than decreased returns over the next three years. Following the 2017 annual reporting season Schroders has again surveyed Australian brokers to gain insight into their asset allocation views. The inaugural survey six months ago highlighted the top three objectives for participating brokers were to generate income, maximise returns including franking credits, and protect capital. Two of these have fallen down the list of priorities since March. The March survey showed that ASX listings remain the dominant implementation vehicle of choice and that on average brokers were allocating 80% to growth assets (Australian equity, global equity and A-REITs). This has remained essentially unchanged. Sentiment was positive with limited concern for an equity market correction. In the following six months, the growth-oriented exposure and lack of concern about a market correction have both proven well founded. Equity markets have delivered positive total returns (+1% in Australia, + in global equities (A$ hedged) and -1% in A-REITs). Although not overly represented in broker portfolios, returns from Australian fixed income have also been positive over that time delivering +2.5% returns. In this second survey we received more than 50 responses, which is of sufficient size to be useful but still a small enough sample that there may be some inherent biases. We describe some of the key findings from the survey as well as the interesting changes from the inaugural survey in March Diversification paramount Schroders asset allocation survey 1

2 Preferred Vehicle Figure 1: Investment Objectives in order of preference (with change from previous survey in parentheses) Importance Objective 1 (+3) Establish a well-diversified portfolio that will rise in most, but not all, market conditions 2 (-1 ) Generate income 3 ( ) Protect capital 4 (-2 ) Maximise after-tax returns (including franking credits) 5 (+1) Achieve an absolute return (say 6% to 8% p.a.) 6 (-1 ) Beat the S&P/ASX 200 Index. Change in importance compares rank from the Sep 2017 survey versus the previous Mar 2017 survey. Figure 2: Vehicles used to implement objectives 14% 14% 72% ASX Listed Instruments Foreign Listed Stocks Unlisted Managed Funds Consistent with our previous survey, there is a huge preference for ASX quoted vehicles although global direct stocks and managed funds do get a look in. Fortunately the market is changing so brokers do not have to change the platform through which they invest, with many of the asset classes and active investment strategies available on the exchange and many more expected over time. Figure 3: Which vehicles on the ASX are preferred? 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% Direct Listed equities or investment hybrid companies securities Passive ETFs Active ETFs Warrants / options / futures This measures which vehicles are considered for investment it does not capture the allocation to each. An interesting change from March was an increase in brokers using LICs relative to those using active ETFs. Observers of the market would conclude this is logical given few active ETF launches this year, and a continued pipeline of LICs in both domestic, global and fixed income asset classes having come to market. We expect see more listings of both LICs and active ETFs in Note: Total add to over 100% as respondents could choose more than one option Diversification paramount Schroders asset allocation survey 2

3 Figure 4: Current asset allocation being advised to your clients 5% 2% 8% 20% 45% Australian Equities Global Equities Property Hybrids Global Bonds Cash Unlisted Assets 75% of the average respondent portfolio is invested in growth assets (equity and property) and 7.5% hybrids. We see a small allocation to global bonds, in cash and a small amount of unlisted and in other. In the context of other major investor groups institutional pension funds and retail financial planning groups these remain aggressive portfolios but at the margin, relative to the March 2017 survey, are becoming more diversified with a slight decrease in growth assets and a small shift from Australian to global equities. Figure 5: How often do you change a client s asset allocation? 39% 22% Frequently (3-6 months or less) There is some degree of asset allocation anchoring (even if the anchor is completely different) with 39% of brokers rebalancing only periodically every couple of years. At least annually Periodically (every couple of years) There was an increase in those who responded Frequently, up from 14% to 22%, but the barriers to more frequent change may not be desire or skill to change, rather the ability to do so as shown in the next question. 39% Figure 6: What are the key barriers to making more frequent rebalancing decisions on behalf of your clients? 4% 7% 43% Compliance hurdles Implementation challenges Skill set gaps Putting aside investment reasons for changing allocations, the barriers at the moment are massively weighted to compliance and implementation challenges, and not limited by the comfort brokers feel with changing asset allocation, or the time they have available. 46% Time poor Diversification paramount Schroders asset allocation survey 3

4 Figure 7: What are your market return expectations over the next 3 years? 33% 50% Stable Decreasing Increasing Given our own negative biases, we were only going to ask if brokers thought returns were likely to be stable or decrease over the next three years. We included the increasing option for completeness and twice as many respondents think increased returns are more likely than decreased returns over the next three years. 17% How is Schroders positioned in the Real Return Active ETF (ASX: GROW)? Figure 8: Real Return (ASX: GROW) Portfolio Cash, 33.9% Australian Equities, 15.9% Global Equities, 11.5% Our approach to inflation plus (or real return) investing is to choose the portfolio that has the highest probability of achieving the required return and capital protection objective over our three-year investment horizon, with the least expected variability around this objective. Mortgages and Floating Rate Credit, 9.6% Global Fixed Income, 8.1% Australian Fixed Income, 12.4% Higher Yielding Credit, 8.9% Absolute Return Strategies, -0.3% Source: Schroders, 30 September, 2017, Schroder Real Return Fund Our return expectations across a wide range of assets are significantly lower today than they were three years ago. Not only are returns lower overall, there is less variation across the universe as well. We remain very defensively positioned, with less than 40% of the portfolio in equities and higher yielding credit, and a meaningful allocation to investment grade fixed income and cash. Diversification paramount Schroders asset allocation survey 4

5 Two of the main questions we have received since the launch of GROW have been related to the performance of the ETF relative to the unlisted managed fund strategy on which it is based, and the real world costs of buying and selling the fund. Based on daily data, the net of fee performance and volatility of the unlisted fund versus the active ETF since its launch are almost identical: Period 9 August 2016 to 31 August 2017 Return Standard deviation Max Drawdown GROW 4.36% 2.96% -1.33% Unlisted Real Return Fund 4.33% 2.92% -1.26% S&P/ASX % 13.28% -6.43% Bloomberg Ausbond Composite Index -0.11% 3.56% -3.61% Source: Morningstar Direct based on daily data net of fees, performance from inception 9 August 2016 to 31 August 2017 The dollar weighted realised offer spread (applicable to buys) has averaged 32bp on all trades since inception of the active ETF on 9 August The dollar weighted bid spread (applicable to sells) has averaged 34bp. Blue lines are trades purchasing the fund while red lines are trades selling the fund. 1.00% 0.80% Dollar weighted spread 0.32% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% -0.20% -0.40% -0.60% -0.80% Dollar weighted spread 0.34% Source: Macquarie, spread is based on actual trading data for GROW from 9 August 2016 to 31 August Important Information: Disclaimer: Investment in the Schroder Real Return Fund can be made by buying units on the ASX. The Fund's Product Disclosure Statement provides information on the Fund and should be read in its entirety before making a decision to invest. This document is intended solely for the information of the person to whom it is provided by Schroder Investment Management Australia Limited (ABN , AFSL ) ( Schroders ). It should not be relied on by any person for the purposes of making investment decisions. Total returns are calculated using end of month NAV prices as quoted on the ASX, after fees and expenses, and assuming reinvestment of income. Gross returns are calculated using end of month NAV prices as quoted on the ASX. Opinions constitute our judgement at the time of issue and are subject to change. The repayment of capital and the performance of the portfolio are not guaranteed by Schroders or any other party. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Unless otherwise stated the source for all graphs and tables contained in this Report is Schroders. This document does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. For security reasons telephone calls may be taped. Diversification paramount Schroders asset allocation survey 5