The interesting thing with India is it has been massively overlooked. The performance has been better than China in recent months

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1 p20-25 Cover Story Sept10 23/8/10 14:58 Page 20 With a raft of launches focussing on investment opportunities in India, Rob Langston considers whether these new funds offer anything more than their successful, established rivals It seems when talking about investing in Asia, the conversation inevitably drifts towards one country: China. However, long-term investors in Indian funds will tell you that there is more than one growth story on the continent. For many years the country has been overlooked because of the scale of the Chinese economy and the mineral resources of fellow BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries Russia and Brazil. Yet, despite being the world s second largest country behind China, it has generated just a fraction of the interest of its more northerly neighbour. A growing, wealthier middle class; a younger, educated workforce; and an economy less correlated to global events have all helped put India back on investors radars. Traditionally, the best way to gain Indian exposure would have been through BRIC funds or through more general emerging markets funds. However, over the past five years there has been a proliferation of India-specific funds available to the UK investor. The number of India-specific funds is still outnumbered by Chinese funds, which receive the lion s share of marketing The interesting thing with India is it has been massively overlooked. The performance has been better than China in recent months and press coverage in the UK investment market, but their number is growing. Adrian Lowcock, senior investment adviser at London-based independent financial adviser Bestinvest, says although his company doesn t look at country specific funds on an individual basis, Indian funds do offer some attractive returns. The interesting thing with India is that it has been massively overlooked compared with China, he explains. The performance has been better than China, certainly in recent months. It really emphasises the point of having a globally diversified fund. At the end of the day, nobody knows exactly which benchmark or index will perform; sometimes stock markets don t follow economies. Lowcock says much of the hype around China had been due to its role in the global recovery as a bigger exporter and economy. Big ambitions India s ruling government also has lofty aims. In its budget for the 2010/2011 financial year, the Indian government announced that it aimed to revert to high GDP growth of nine per cent, with aims to break through the double-digit growth barrier. Such was the optimism surrounding the election of the United Progressive 20

2 p20-25 Cover Story Sept10 23/8/10 14:58 Page 21 Best Indian equity fund HSBC GIF Indian Equity Manager: S Duggal Initial charge: 5.25 per cent Total Expense Ratio (TER): 1.90 per cent Minimum investment: 3,203 (US $5,000) Reasoning: The HSBC Gif Indian Equity fund is one of the oldest onshore Indian funds and the best performing over ten years: 1,000 invested ten years ago would have returned an impressive 6,330. Over five years, the fund would have returned 2,339, outperforming its two closest rivals First State Indian Subcontinent and JP Morgan JF India funds. Manager Sanjeev Duggal has been involved in the running of the fund since 1996, demonstrating a strong long-term track record. His performance over the sustained period of time is testament to a smart broadly-based strategy and even smarter individual stock selection. Set against other OEICs and unit trusts, Duggal has steered the fund five sector-topping years out of the past ten and was exceptionally unlucky not to make a positive return in the 2007/2008 period, which included the global credit crisis. He still topped the sector that year, however. With this in mind, investors may be inclined to ignore some of the newcomers to the party in favour of a manager with established regional contacts, a strong track record and a fund mandate which allows him the freedom to execute the very best ideas on offer. Verdict: Buy Alliance coalition government last year that a surge in trading led to the suspension of trading on the country s main index, the Sensex. Indeed, earlier this year the International Monetary Fund forecast that growth in India was expected to accelerate to about 9.4 per cent in 2010, before settling to 8.4 per cent in Avinash Vazirani, manager of the Jupiter Indian fund and head of the South Asia equities team at Jupiter Asset Management, says that, like other emerging market countries, India had not been as hard hit by the turmoil in global markets. For us it is a good time to be investing in India: we are coming out of a global recession, he says. India didn t have a recession at all. GDP is still growing. However, the threat of inflation has yet to be resolved. The Indian government earlier this year reveal consumer price index inflation had increased to 13.9 per cent at the end of May, compared with just 8.6 per cent a year earlier. Vazirani says last year s bad monsoon season saw food inflation rocket, which had a knock-on effect on wider inflation. It reached more than 16 per cent in January this year. Some staple food items more than doubled in price and had a worse effect on inflation, he explains. Despite some of the economic headwinds facing the country, there is certainly a wide range of opportunities. Sukumar Rajah, chief investment officer of Asian equities at Franklin Templeton and sub-adviser on the Franklin India fund, says there are a number of drivers to help facilitate growth for Indian companies in the coming years. Rajah says the country s growing middle class will remain one of the biggest drivers, highlighting consumer products and banking as two areas that could benefit from a larger, wealthier middle class. We are seeing a very different environment for demand growth in the Indian economy, he adds. Foreign demand growth could be 8 or 10 per cent for most products over the next ten to 15 years. It is a very favourable operating environment for a lot of companies. Funds operating in India have been buoyed by the recent performance of the Indian economy, which has contrasted with China. Bestinvest s Lowcock says that while China has dominated in the long term, India has a number of different drivers for performance. The country has a focus on pharmaceuticals and software, making it different from the other BRIC economies, he says. With exports comprising about 15 per cent of GDP, the country is well insulated from the global recession and another financial crisis, although its stock market is not. Returns from long-running Indian funds make compelling investment arguments. Over ten years, a 1,

3 p20-25 Cover Story Sept10 23/8/10 14:58 Page 22 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS Table 1: Performance of India funds DB X-Trackers - S&P CNX Nifty 1,102 1,205 1, Lyxor - India - S&P CNX Nifty 1,164 1, INVESTMENT TRUSTS Aberdeen New India IT 1,124 1,327 1,511 1,866 2,774 Bloomsbury - Infrastructure India 769 1, India Capital Fund - India Capital Growth 1,258 1, JP Morgan Indian IT 1,099 1,216 1,152 2,014 4,667 UNIT TRUSTS / OEICs BGF - India 1,114 1,294 1, Fidelity - India Focus 1,116 1,341 1,085 1,915 - First State - Indian Subcontinent 1,152 1,359 1, Franklin Templeton - Franklin India 1,094 1,289 1, HSBC - GIF Indian Equity 1,058 1,270 1,284 2,339 6,330 Invesco - India Equity 1,112 1,295 1, JPM - JF India 1,083 1,202 1,131 2,089 - Jupiter - India 1,083 1, Neptune - India 1,096 1,240 1, Schroder - SISF Indian Equity 1,068 1,203 1, FSA-RECOGNISED OFFSHORE FUNDS 1,000 OVER: 6 mths 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Aberdeen Global - Indian Equity 1,121 1,293 1,437 2,216 5,161 Allianz - RCM India 1, Amundi - India 1,081 1,223 1, Amundi - India Infrastructure 1,111 1, BGF - India 1,114 1,294 1, CMI - Indian 1,069 1,211 1, Danske - India 1,156 1,332 1,457 2,134 - F&C - Indian Investment Company 1,078 1,245 1,323 2,518 3,308 Fidelity - India Focus 1,116 1,341 1,085 1,915 - First State - Indian Subcontinent 1,096 1,270 1,516 2,558 3,836 Fortis - L Equity India 1,084 1,232 1,337 2,196 - GS - India Equity Base 1,116 1, Henderson - Indian Equity 1,052 1, India Capital Fund - India Capital 1,101 1,355 1,232 2,938 - Invesco - India Equity 1,112 1,295 1, JF - India 1,093 1,241 1,215 2,333 4,263 JPM - JF India 1,083 1,202 1,131 2,089 - Jupiter - JGF India Select 1,094 1,321 1,382 2,436 5,797 Kotak - India Infrastructure & Realty 1, Manulife - India Equity 1,066 1,185 1, Melchior - Indian Opportunity 1,003 1, Morg Stnly - Indian Equity 1,089 1,307 1, Nomura - India Equity 1,070 1,271 1, Parvest - India 1,070 1,222 1, Pictet - Indian Equities 1,079 1,219 1,200 2,157 3,951 PineBridge - India Equity 1,085 1,308 1, Schroder - SISF Indian Equity 1,068 1,203 1, SGAM - Equities India 1,070 1,193 1, Stratton Street - Indian Synthetic Warrant 1,133 1, UTI International - India 1,102 1,380 1,606 3,063 - What the Table shows: Performance of 1,000 over five specified periods. Returns are offer to bid until 31 July 2010, net income reinvested, rebased in Sterling. Source: Trustnet investment in the HSBC Gif Indian Equity fund would have returned 6,330, while the JP Morgan Indian Investment Trust would have returned 4,667 over the same period. Measuring the market Table 1 shows how the Indian investment story also works in the near-term, with almost all funds returning investors 1,000 with something extra. For offshore investors, the opportunities in the sector remain greater still, with a number of strong performances over the longer term. Most Indian funds witnessed some degree of fallout from the global credit crisis as the contagion spread from the western world to emerging markets. However, India s lack of exposure to the antics of western banks has resulted in stable growth since. Investment trusts have remained the popular choice for investors. Stalwarts the JP Morgan Indian and the Aberdeenmanaged New India investment trusts have raised 33.4 million between them so far this year, according to research from Winterflood Investment Trusts. Adrian Lim, senior investment manager on the Asia Pacific (ex-japan) equity team at Aberdeen, says there are plenty of opportunities in the Indian market. India is quite an interesting stockpicking market, he says. There are 6,500 stocks listed on Indian indices. It does give you a bit of variety and a lot of domestic stories. Unlike other Asian countries, the stock market is driven by domestic themes rather than exports. It offers protection against the current upheavals in global markets. In the year-to-date, the New India trust has reported an impressive 13.2 per cent increase in net asset value. Both the New India and JP Morgan Indian investment trusts have demonstrated strong returns over ten-year periods and, at the time of writing, were 22

4 p20-25 Cover Story Sept10 23/8/10 14:59 Page 24 Most Indian funds witnessed some degree of fallout from the global credit crisis, but India s lack of exposure to the antics of western banks has resulted in stable growth since Worst Indian equity fund India Capital Growth (investment trust) Managers: India Investment Partners Reasoning: From an initial 1,000 investment, the small & mid-cap India Capital Growth investment trust would have returned just 557 over three years. It also suffered from over-exposure to a concentrated portfolio of illiquid stocks. The fund has undergone a recent change of management with the appointment of former New Star fund manager David Cornell, who has already moved to cut the fund s illiquid holdings and reduce its concentration. In spite of the fund s underperformance, the manager has made a number of positive comments and has even made plans to move his family to India. He says: The previous management took a very long-term approach to investing. While the underlying stockpicking was probably very good, the volatility of 2007 and 2008 meant a lot of small and mid-cap stocks turned into micro-caps. both trading on single-digit discounts. At the other end of the scale the India Capital Growth Fund the Indian small & mid cap investment trust would have returned just 557 from a 1,000 investment over a three-year period. However, the appointment of a new manager and the move towards more liquid stocks has seen performance over the past year pick up. Newly-appointed manager David Cornell says he has taken a number of steps to address the fund s concentration of illiquid stocks, which have had a big impact on performance. Over the past seven or eight months we ve been through a severe culling process, he explains. We used the strength of the past couple of months to exit these positions. He says there is also demand for the services offered by Indian companies abroad, such as outsourcing and automobile technology sectors, which have grown exponentially in recent years. Another way For investors looking to access the Indian growth story through exchange-traded We think we can manage volatility and get some extra performance by taking short positions funds, the process is a little more difficult. There are just two London-listed products covering Indian stock markets just a fraction of the multitude of Chinese ETFs available. The DBX Trackers S&P Nifty and Lyxor India (S&P CNX Nifty) products offer investors exposure to the S&P CNX Nifty 50 index the 50 largest companies listed on the National Stock Exchange of India. However, this has recently been augmented by the launch of two exchangetraded currency products from ETF Securities. Earlier this year the provider began offering the first currency products for investors looking to get exposure to the Indian rupee. Martin Arnold, senior analyst at ETF Securities, says the products offer value for investors looking for exposure to the currency, which has been restricted by capital restrictions into the country. Arnold says the recently launched products cater to demand for the currency, but have been slow to take off because risk appetite remains lower. There is also a plethora of offshore India funds, with a greater number of older funds with good track records available. The past five years have seen a range of entrants into the market The offshore Insynergy Absolute India fund, launched earlier this year, is one of a number of new funds specialising in India. Spike Hughes, chief executive of Insynergy Asset Management, claims its recently launched absolute return fund, managed by Indian asset manager Reliance, is a new concept for Indian funds. When we sat down with Reliance and were asked how we thought it should be run, we decided the growth product should be core, he says. But 30 per cent of the portfolio we wanted to be invested in special situations. We think we can manage volatility and get some extra performance by taking short positions. Last month saw another Indian fund launch in the fixed-income space with the Q-ACPI India Fixed Income Fund. This fund invests in securities issued by the central government, government-owned companies and high-grade corporate bonds. Steve O Hanlon, manager of the fund, says opportunities in the Indian market offer investors in traditional government bond funds an alternative, given the amount of uncertainty over the levels of debt faced by developed economies. You could argue there is more risk in the US than there is in India, he explains. We aren t saying that we re not conscious of risks in the Indian market. [But] there is a good opportunity over the next two to three years. 24

5 p20-25 Cover Story Sept10 23/8/10 14:59 Page 25 I believe India offers a better return for investors and is becoming more meaningful for the global economy. I believe India will outperform the other BRIC economies Indian asset manager Kotak Mahindra has also set its sights on the UK retail market, where it currently offers a range of offshore funds to investors, mirroring similar moves by its competitors. Nitin Jain, principal fund manager at Kotak, says the company is attempting to work in a different way from its market rivals. A number of UK-based fund managers have outsourced management of their products to Indian asset managers. As well as Insynergy and Reliance, Henderson partners with Tata on its offshore product. We only do Indian funds. We don t invest in any other markets, says Jain. Other [global] firms might have certain advantages on us, but we replace global experience with research and local experience. We have a very strong local experience that gives us a competitive edge. Jain says more people are considering the Indian economic story, but feels that, as an investment strategy, it has often been neglected. We have always maintained that India is a better investment story than some of our peers that we get lumped with [in] the Nestle India Share price: INR 2,766.6 Stock exchange: Bombay Stock Exchange 100 index Sector: Packaged Foods The Indian subsidiary of Nestle is set to take advantage of a surge in demand for higher profile goods from the country s growing middle class. A greater level of wealth among Indian consumers should lead to a move from unbranded products to branded products. Hot holdings BRIC class, he adds. People do look at the four countries as one. I believe India offers a better return for investors and is now becoming more and more meaningful for the global economy, he says. I believe India will outperform the other BRIC economies. Although interest in the market seems likely to experience growth in the coming years, the number of available products may Franklin Templeton manager Sukumar Rajah says, We think that demand for packaged foods will increase exponentially. The company reported an increase in net sales of 21.3 per cent during the first half of 2010, as domestic sales increased by more than one-fifth. Chairman and managing director Antonio Waszyk says it had been able to introduce staggered price increases despite food-price inflation and high commodity prices, contributing to profits of almost INR2 billion. yet take a while to substantially grow. Under the current system, many funds are registered in Mauritius for tax purposes, requiring separate regulatory procedure something that delayed the launch of the Insynergy fund. A number of industry critics have moved to say that these delays may be no bad thing. Hargreaves Lansdown senior analyst Meera Patel says the proliferation of UK fund launches in the sector may not be a good thing. She says, There are too many groups that are jumping on the band wagon, but we have only so many buyers of funds. That kind of buyer is quite specific. More general global emerging markets funds appear to have greater popularity with investors and advisers alike, with their ability to reduce exposures to any single country. China and India funds are so different. Not everyone can access the Chinese market, says Patel. They are such different entities. I do not think you can compare the two. 25