EUROPEAN BANK STOCKS

Transcription

1 EUROPEAN BANK STOCKS BREAKING DOWN POSITIVE & NEGATIVE MOMENTUM BY COUNTRY TRENDRATING LONDON BOSTON LUGANO Smart Momentum December 13,

2 REPORT SUMMARY: POSITIVE ROTATION OF MONEY INTO THE EUROPEAN BANKING SECTOR CONTINUING POSITIVE ALERTS (UPGRADES) INDICATES THE IMPROVING OVERALL SECTOR PICTURE BEST MOMENTUM IS COMING FROM BANKS IN NORTHERN EUROPE AND THE UK ITALIAN BANKS CONTINUE TO LAG 2016 Ratings Evolution: The chart below displays the distribution of momentum among European Banks. 71% of the rating changes in the last three months have been for banks moving into positive momentum. Figure 1: European Banks Rating Evolution Momentum Breadth by Country: Banks in Denmark, Israel, Sweden and Norway are currently leading the way from a momentum stand point. Italian banks currently have the lowest positive momentum % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Proportion of European Banks in Positive Momentum Figure 2: Proportion of Banks in Positive Momentum Smart Momentum December 13,

3 Market # Rating % A/B Denmark 10 A % Israel 8 A % Sweden 9 A % Norway 8 A % Germany 5 B % UK 21 B % Spain 8 B % Switzerland 26 B % France 12 B 75.00% Italy 17 C % Figure 3: Percentage of A/B Rated Bank Stocks Ratings Performance: Figure 4 below shows that A rated securities are providing positive performance while D rated banks are dragging down the performance of this sector. On average, A rated securities are out performing their D rated counterparts by over 40%. The Trendrating Smart Momentum model has properly timed entry into this emerging trend, distinguishing winners from losers. Figure 4: A vs D Momentum Ratings Smart Momentum December 13,

4 72% of UK Banks have positive performance since rated with an average profit on correctly called A & B rated stocks of 43.20% versus an average loss of % on incorrect calls (Figure 5). Figure 5: UK Banks performance since rated Switzerland has the most Bank Stock upgrades in the past 20 days with five. All five stocks have risen in price since rated (Figure 6). Figure 6: Swiss Bank Upgrades Italy has the most D rated Bank Stocks with eight. Many have been rated D since the beginning of 2016 and all eight have performed poorly since rated (Figure 7). Figure 7: Italian Bank Downgrades Smart Momentum December 13,

5 Positive Momentum - Best Performance Since Rated (A Rated Stocks): Best Performance Since Rated Tcs Group Holding Plc Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc Bgeo Group Plc Otzar Hashilton Hamekomi Ltd Swiss National Bank Sparebank 1 Nord-norge Sparebank 1 Sr-bank Asa Deutsche Bank Ag Sparebanken Vest As Banque Cantonale De Geneve 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% Negative Momentum - Worst Performance Since Rated (D Rated Stocks) Worst Performance Since Rated Banca Mps Rg Banca Carige Allied Irish Banks Banco Popular Esp Cred. Valtellinese Ubi Banca Bca Pop. Milano Efg Intl N Banca Profilo Bco Desio E Brianza -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% Use the Markets Tab on your Trendrating Desktop to keep track of momentum in various markets, sectors and regions. The evaluations, rankings and information provided by Trendrating (the Services ) are provided solely for the use of finance professionals (the Users ) who have been issued a license to use the Services by Trendrating and who, by nature of their status as investment professions understand, or are expected to understand, the complexity of finance products, the functioning of the markets and the risks inherent in them. The Services are not offered for use by persons not employed or actively working as professionals in the finance and investment industry. The Services are to be used entirely at the risk of the Users. Included in the Services are forward-looking statements that are based on observations, assumptions and calculations that reflect Trendrating s expectations. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from those expectations. The Services are not intended to constitute a recommendation of any specific security or financial product and are to be implemented solely in conjunction with or as part of a complete investment evaluation conducted by the Users. Under no circumstances shall Trendrating, its officers, directors, employees or agents be liable for any damages, lost profits or investment losses that result in any way from use of the Services or any interruptions, errors or delays in the Services. Trendrating S.A All rights reserved. Smart Momentum December 13,