11/20 11/6 11/13 10/30

Transcription

1 PROPRIETARY RESEARCH EARNINGS AGGREGATES REPORTING ANALYST: Greg Harrison October 2, 2014 Media Questions/Earnings Hotline: PR team: EUROPEAN AGGREGATE ESTIMATES AND REVISIONS Third quarter earnings are expected to grow 12.4% from Q Third quarter revenue is expected to decline 0.3% from Q One of the two companies in the STOXX 600 that have reported earnings to date for Q has reported earnings above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 48% beat analyst EPS estimates. Both of the companies in the STOXX 600 that have reported revenue to date for Q have reported revenue above analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 53% beat analyst revenue estimates. The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is SECTION A: EARNINGS OUTLOOK Q3 2014: EARNINGS REVISIONS Exhibit 1A. STOXX 600: Q Earnings Growth Estimate Trend 13.0% 12.5% 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 9/4 9/11 9/18 9/25 10/2 10/9 10/16 10/23 10/30 11/6 11/13 11/20 11/27 12/4 12/11 12/18 12/25 STOXX 600 Earnings Outlook provides analysis and commentary on aggregate earnings estimate revisions, growth rates and valuations for companies in the STOXX Europe 600 index. View all Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research subscription channels. All data sourced from Thomson Reuters Eikon, a complete solution for research and analytics. It places the most comprehensive market information, news, analytics and trading tools available into a desktop as simple to use as the Internet. Thomson Reuters Eikon clients can run fundamental and technical screens against a global dataset representing more than 100 countries and over 200,000 securities. Learn more. Request a free trial of Thomson Reuters Eikon today Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license.

2 Q3 2014: EARNINGS SCORECARDS Exhibit 2A. STOXX 600: Q Earnings vs. Expectations Surprise Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total # Basic Materials Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 50% 50% 0% 3% 2 28 Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Telecommunications Services Utilities STOXX % 50.0% 0.0% 3% Through October 2, 2 companies in the STOXX 600 Index have reported earnings for Q Of these companies, 50% reported earnings above analyst estimates, 0% reported earnings in-line with analyst expectations, and 50% reported earnings below analyst expectations. In a typical quarter (since 2011), 48% of companies beat estimates, 8% match and 44% miss estimates. Over the past four quarters, 48% of companies beat the estimates, 8% matched and 44% missed estimates. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 3% above estimates, which is below the 5% longterm (since 2011) average surprise factor, and matches the 3% surprise factor recorded over the past four quarters. Exhibit 3A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2013 Earnings vs. Expectations Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Total # Total # Basic Materials 56% 4% 40% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 50% 11% 39% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 58% 10% 32% Energy 49% 6% 46% Financials 61% 5% 34% Healthcare 63% 3% 33% Industrials 48% 12% 41% Technology 50% 0% 50% Telecommunications Services 65% 0% 35% Utilities 65% 18% 18% STOXX % 7.3% 37.5% Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 2

3 Q3 2014: REVENUE SCORECARDS Exhibit 4A. STOXX 600: Q Revenue vs. Expectations Surprise Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Factor % Total # Total # Basic Materials Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 100% 0% 0% 2% 2 31 Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Telecommunications Services Utilities STOXX % 0.0% 0.0% 2% Through October 2, 2 companies in the STOXX 600 Index have reported revenues for Q Of these companies, 100% reported revenue above analyst estimates, 0% reported revenue in-line with analyst expectations, and 0% reported revenue below analyst expectations. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 2% above estimates. Exhibit 5A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2013 Revenue vs. Expectations Reported Cos. w/ Ests. Sector Above % Match % Below % Total # Total # Basic Materials 33% 0% 67% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 52% 3% 45% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 19% 0% 81% Energy 34% 3% 63% Financials 48% 0% 52% Healthcare 47% 0% 53% Industrials 40% 0% 60% Technology 44% 0% 56% Telecommunications Services 30% 0% 70% Utilities 59% 0% 41% STOXX % 0.6% 57.6% Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 3

4 Q3 2014: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES Exhibit 6A. STOXX 600: Q Earnings Growth (Based on 265 Companies with Estimates) Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth % Sector Q314 Q313 Q314 Q314 Basic Materials % Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services % Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services % Energy % Financials % Healthcare % Industrials % Technology % Telecommunication Services % Utilities % STOXX % The estimated earnings growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q is 12.4%. The STOXX 600 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $106.1B in Q2 2014, compared to share-weighted earnings of $94.4B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current constituents) in Q Eight of the ten sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to Q The Utilities sector has the highest earnings growth rate for the quarter, while the Healthcare sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to Q The Utilities sector has the highest earnings growth rate (26.9%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $1.4B in Q3 2014, compared to earnings of $1.1B in Q Both industry groups in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The Electric Utilities & IPPs (31%) industry group has the highest growth rate within the sector. The Healthcare sector has the lowest growth rate (-1.5%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $13.9B in Q3 2014, relative to earnings of $14.1B in Q Exhibit 7A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Earnings Growth (Based on 508 Companies with Estimates) Earnings $B Earnings $B Growth $B Growth % Sector Basic Materials % Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services % Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services % Energy % Financials % Healthcare % Industrials % Technology % Telecommunications Services % Utilities % STOXX % 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 4

5 Q3 2014: REVENUE GROWTH RATES Exhibit 8A. STOXX 600: Q Revenue Growth (Based on 303 Companies with Estimates) Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth % Sector Q314 Q313 Q314 Q314 Basic Materials % Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services % Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services % Energy % Financials % Healthcare % Industrials % Technology % Telecommunications Services % Utilities % STOXX 600 1, , % The estimated revenue growth rate for the STOXX 600 for Q is -0.3%. The STOXX 600 is expected to earn revenues of $1,464.3B in Q compared to $1,469.4B in Q Four of the ten sectors anticipate revenue growth for the quarter. The Consumer Non-Cyclicals sector is expected to have the highest revenue growth rate for the quarter, while the Utilities sector is expected to have the lowest revenue growth rate. The Consumer Non-Cyclicals sector expects the highest revenue growth rate (6.7%) for the quarter. It is expected to generate sales of $89.5B in Q3 2014, compared to sales of $83.7B in Q All four industry groups within the sector are expected to have positive revenue growth, led by Personal & Household Products & Services (13%). The Utilities sector has the lowest revenue growth rate at (-18.3%). The sector is expected to post sales of $1.2B in Q3 2014, relative to sales of $1.4B in Q Exhibit 9A. STOXX 600: Full Year 2014 Revenue Growth (Based on 508 Companies with Estimates) Revenue $B Revenue $B Growth $B Growth % Sector Basic Materials % Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 1, , % Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services % Energy 1, , % Financials 1, , % Healthcare % Industrials 1, , % Technology % Telecommunications Services % Utilities % STOXX 600 9, , % 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 5

6 Q3 2014: EARNINGS GROWTH RATES BY COUNTRY Exhibit 10A. STOXX 600: Q Earnings Growth Rate Estimates by Country Luxembourg Ireland Great Britain STOXX 600 Netherlands Sweden France Switzerland Germany Norway Czech Republic Austria Greece 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Analysts expect positive earnings growth from 16 of the 20 countries represented in the STOXX 600 index. Luxembourg (52%) and Italy (48%) have the highest estimated earnings growth rates, while Greece (-55%) and Austria (-43%) have the lowest estimated growth. Italy Finland Jersey Bermuda Denmark Belgium Spain 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 6

7 FORWARD FOUR-QUARTER P/E RATIO Exhibit 11A. STOXX 600: Forward P/E Ratio P/E Ratio Number of Companies CY Forward CY The forward P/E ratio for the STOXX 600 is Q Q2 2015: EARNINGS GROWTH The estimated earnings growth rates for the STOXX 600 for Q through Q are 12%, 40%, 14% and 11%, respectively. For sector-level growth rates for Q through Q2 2015, see Exhibits 2C-5C in this report. EARNINGS CALENDAR The next several weeks will see companies report earnings for Q There are 4 STOXX 600 companies with quarterly estimates scheduled to report Q earnings during the week of October 6. Exhibit 12A. Number of Companies Reporting Q Earnings Reported Report Report Report Q To Date This Week Next Week Remaining STOXX Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 7

8 SECTION B: EARNINGS CALENDAR MONDAY: OCTOBER 6 Exhibit 1B. Monday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif 10/6/2014 INDUa.ST Industrivarden AB Qtr Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 8

9 TUESDAY: OCTOBER 7 Exhibit 2B. Tuesday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 9

10 WEDNESDAY: OCTOBER 8 Exhibit 3B. Wednesday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif 10/8/2014 GXI.DE Gerrescheimer AG Qtr % Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 10

11 THURSDAY: OCTOBER 9 Exhibit 4B. Thursday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 11

12 FRIDAY: OCTOBER 10 Exhibit 5B. Friday Earnings Calendar Date Ticker Company Qtr/Semi Est Yr Ago % Dif 10/10/2014 TRYG.CO Tryg A/S Qtr % 10/10/2014 EMSN.S Ems Chemie Holding AG Qtr Source: Thomson Reuters StreetEvents Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 12

13 SECTION C: EARNINGS DATA TABLES Exhibit 1C. STOXX 600: Q Earnings Scorecard Sector Above Match Below Surprise Reported Index Basic Materials Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 50% 50% 0% 3% 2 28 Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Technology Telecommunications Services Utilities STOXX % 50.0% 0.0% 3% Exhibit 2C. STOXX 600: Q Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr 1 Jan Basic Materials 22.2% 22.2% 9.3% 13.7% 17.0% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 11.5% 11.5% 21.0% 66.9% 19.5% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 14.8% 14.8% 45.5% 83.9% 27.2% Energy 2.7% 2.7% 3.5% 10.1% 11.5% Financials 19.8% 19.8% 21.1% 18.9% -9.7% Healthcare -1.5% -1.5% 1.0% 2.6% 13.6% Industrials 22.5% 22.5% 22.9% 23.8% 23.9% Technology 26.4% 26.4% 24.7% 32.7% 35.2% Telecommunications Services -0.8% -0.8% -3.7% -1.0% 11.3% Utilities 26.9% 26.9% 14.3% 14.3% 35.7% STOXX % 12.4% 14.9% 23.4% 11.4% Number of Companies Included in Estimate Exhibit 3C. STOXX 600: Q Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr 1 Jan Basic Materials 49.5% 49.5% 23.6% 17.6% 12.8% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 19.3% 19.3% 23.6% 20.5% 16.5% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services -14.0% -14.0% 11.6% 45.1% 0.9% Energy 14.0% 14.0% 17.1% 23.8% 10.3% Financials 297.5% 297.5% 221.3% 101.4% -55.1% Healthcare -1.8% -1.8% 3.1% 6.7% 8.9% Industrials 31.9% 31.9% 28.2% 31.8% 25.4% Technology 7.4% 7.4% 11.7% 16.9% 21.5% Telecommunications Services -17.9% -17.9% -21.9% 24.7% 14.3% Utilities 18.1% 18.1% -18.0% -12.9% 12.5% STOXX % 39.7% 39.9% 32.8% 4.8% Number of Companies Included in Estimate Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 13

14 Exhibit 4C. STOXX 600: Q Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr Basic Materials 46.2% 46.2% 28.8% 17.3% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 17.0% 17.0% 21.9% 30.3% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 58.3% 58.3% 80.9% 9.1% Energy -6.9% -6.9% -4.9% 7.3% Financials 31.1% 31.1% 36.4% 6.4% Healthcare -6.6% -6.6% 15.0% 21.8% Industrials 34.1% 34.1% 43.7% 48.9% Technology 28.5% 28.5% 38.8% 73.9% Telecommunications Services 24.3% 24.3% 88.9% 8.0% Utilities -21.3% -21.3% -8.3% -7.9% STOXX % 16.8% 21.3% 18.9% Number of Companies Included in Estimate Exhibit 5C. STOXX 600: Q Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul Basic Materials 21.6% 21.6% 12.8% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 13.0% 13.0% 179.1% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 20.9% 20.9% -39.6% Energy 6.9% 6.9% 11.5% Financials 20.3% 20.3% 3.9% Healthcare -8.2% -8.2% 15.4% Industrials 19.0% 19.0% 13.0% Technology 7.9% 7.9% 20.9% Telecommunications Services 29.7% 29.7% 6.3% Utilities -24.4% -24.4% 7.4% STOXX % 10.5% 29.5% Number of Companies Included in Estimate Exhibit 6C. STOXX 600: Q Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct Basic Materials 24.1% 24.1% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 136.6% 136.6% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 11.3% 11.3% Energy 3.8% 3.8% Financials 14.4% 14.4% Healthcare 14.9% 14.9% Industrials 19.4% 19.4% Technology 16.3% 16.3% Telecommunications Services 14.8% 14.8% Utilities 10.3% 10.3% STOXX % 20.6% Number of Companies Included in Estimate Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 14

15 Exhibit 7C. STOXX 600: CY 2014 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr 1 Jan Basic Materials 12.5% 12.5% 11.1% 13.4% 19.4% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 8.0% 8.0% 9.8% 12.7% 17.4% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 4.0% 4.0% 4.5% 6.3% 8.5% Energy 6.6% 6.6% 9.1% 9.5% 12.8% Financials 14.3% 14.3% 17.2% 17.0% 21.6% Healthcare 0.8% 0.8% 2.1% 4.7% 8.3% Industrials 10.9% 10.9% 14.7% 17.6% 20.3% Technology 24.5% 24.5% 25.2% 29.5% 34.6% Telecommunications Services -8.9% -8.9% -11.6% -5.8% 2.7% Utilities -17.7% -17.7% -17.4% -10.0% -5.3% STOXX % 6.8% 8.6% 10.8% 15.0% Number of Companies Included in Estimate Exhibit 8C. STOXX 600: CY 2015 Earnings Growth Sector Today 1 Oct 1 Jul 1 Apr Basic Materials 17.5% 17.5% 16.7% 14.7% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 16.5% 16.5% 17.2% 16.0% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 9.4% 9.4% 9.7% 9.0% Energy 10.7% 10.7% 9.9% 9.4% Financials 20.7% 20.7% 18.9% 17.6% Healthcare 9.3% 9.3% 10.9% 9.1% Industrials 17.2% 17.2% 16.3% 16.0% Technology 20.2% 20.2% 18.8% 18.2% Telecommunications Services 8.7% 8.7% 8.8% 6.5% Utilities 4.4% 4.4% 5.6% 5.3% STOXX % 14.9% 14.5% 13.4% Number of Companies Included in Estimate Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 15

16 Exhibit 10C. STOXX 600: Actual Earnings Growth Rates Sector 2Q14 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 Basic Materials 13.3% 6.2% -8.0% 7.7% -20.9% Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 24.8% 17.8% -1.0% -29.8% -3.0% Non-Cyclical Consumer Goods & Services 25.8% 19.2% 41.1% 1.6% -11.3% Energy 23.7% -2.1% -21.8% -21.2% -25.2% Financials 2.3% -0.2% 33.6% -13.8% 2.5% Healthcare 2.1% -1.0% 1.0% -2.9% -6.5% Industrials 12.4% 31.0% 34.2% -10.4% -13.1% Technology 47.9% 47.2% 51.4% 13.7% 7.9% Telecommunications Services -11.9% -32.0% -28.1% -18.6% -10.9% Utilities 7.3% -19.0% -46.9% -60.7% -20.1% STOXX % 1.1% 1.9% -14.5% -9.5% Exhibit 11C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Above/Match/Below) 2Q14 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 Above 48% 45% 53% 45% 49% Match 8% 7% 7% 10% 9% Below 44% 48% 40% 44% 42% Exhibit 12C. STOXX 600: Actual vs. Estimate (Aggregate Difference) 2Q14 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 Surprise Factor 4.0% 7.4% 3.7% -0.8% -0.2% 2014 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 16

17 NOTES / DEFINITIONS ABOUT THOMSON REUTERS EIKON Thomson Reuters Eikon is more comprehensive and collaborative than anything you ve ever worked with. It is a real-time research and portfolio management solution that delivers a broad and deep range of global financial content and insight. You get direct, unfiltered access to industry-leading sources of financial information and analytics, all in a fully integrated workspace designed to help you better analyze your investable universe and monitor your holdings. In a single application, you can: access broker research, estimates, financials, events, news, fixed income and credit analysis, and more; conduct indepth portfolio analysis versus indices, sectors, and industries; investigate data aggregates and complex data relationships; broaden your understanding of the credit markets; monitor negative developments and uncover new investment ideas. We also provide effortless integration of our content into your proprietary spreadsheets, and allow you to stay connected to critical portfolio information on your BlackBerry. ABOUT THOMSON REUTERS Thomson Reuters is the world s leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. We combine industry expertise with innovative technology to deliver critical information to leading decision makers in the financial, legal, tax and accounting, scientific, healthcare and media markets, powered by the world s most trusted news organization. With headquarters in New York and major operations in London and Eagan, Minnesota, Thomson Reuters employs more than 50,000 people in 93 countries. Thomson Reuters shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: TRI) and Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: TRI). For more information, go to IMPORTANT NOTICE This disclaimer is in addition to and not in replacement of any disclaimer of warranties and liabilities set forth in a written agreement between Thomson Reuters and you or the party authorizing your access to the Service ( Contract Disclaimer ). In the event of a conflict or inconsistency between this disclaimer and the Contract Disclaimer the terms of the Contract Disclaimer shall control. By accessing these materials, you hereby agree to the following: These research reports and the information contained therein is for your internal use only and redistribution of this information is expressly prohibited. These reports including the information and analysis, any opinion or recommendation is not intended for investment purposes and does not constitute investment advice or an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any derivatives related to such securities. Thomson Reuters does not warrant the accuracy of the reports for any particular purpose and expressly disclaims any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose; nor does Thomson Reuters guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data included in these reports for any particular purpose. Thomson Reuters is under no obligation to provide you with any current or corrected information. Neither Thomson Reuters nor any of its affiliates, directors, officers or employees, will be liable or have any responsibility of any kind for any loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential, or any other damages of any kind even if Thomson Reuters was advised of the possibility thereof) that you incur in connection with, relating to or arising out of these materials or the analysis, views, recommendations, opinions or information contained therein, or from any other cause relating to your access to, inability to access, or use of these materials, whether or not the circumstances giving rise to such cause may have been within the control of Thomson Reuters. The information provided in these materials is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Thomson Reuters or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_83201_49 17