Equity Research. Equity Flash Notes. August 12, Equity Flash Notes

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1 August 12, 2016 Equity Research Equity Flash Notes 8:30 A.M. Edition This report is a compilation of our most recently published Flash Notes. INSIDE THIS ISSUE Page Headline Analyst 2 AIT: Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.: Ait: Fq4 Results In Line Poliniak-Cusic Despite Sales Miss - Guides F17 Lower 2 BWA, DLPH, GNTX, HAR, MBLY, ALV, AN, GPI, JCI, MGA, Kwas PAG, TEN, TOWR, VC: Autos: Early-August Channel Check mm -17.5mm Light Vehicle Saar Expected 3 WGL, SRE, ED: Energy And Utility Daily Akers 3 MYCC: ClubCorp Holdings, Inc.: Mycc: West Coast (Sf/La) Investor Conder Meeting Takeaways 4 BC, DOO, MBUU, MCFT: July U.S. Boat Industry Retail Est. Conder Flattish On Calendar Timing--Broad Fundamentals Intact 4 NVDA: Nvidia Corporation: Nvda: Nvidia Earnings--First Thoughts Wong 5 Reit Exposure To Macy's Donnelly Equity Flash Notes Equity Research Department Please see page 6 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications All estimates/forecasts are as of 08/12/16 unless otherwise stated. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 Equity Squawk Newsletter Miss - Guides F17 Lower Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. Analyst: Allison Poliniak-Cusic, CFA (DIVERSIFIED INDUSTRIALS, MARKET WEIGHT) (AIT, $48.19, MARKET PERFORM) 52-Wk. Range $49-36 FQ4 RESULTS: AIT announced FQ4 results for the quarter ending June EPS of $0.66 was generally in line with our and Street estimates. However, sales came in lower than expected offset by better SG&A control. Sales declined 6.4% overall (-5.1% estimate), with core down 7.6% (traditional industrial operations down 3.9%). Gross margin was 28.1%, 20bps below a year ago. Operating margin of 6.7%, however, was 40bps below a year ago reflecting the expected decremental from the lowered volumes. F17 OUTLOOK: More importantly, management forecasted F17 earnings to be in the range of $ with sales in a range of down 3% to up 1.0%. AIT's estimate falls below expectations; we are at $2.65 on a 2.2% top line increase and consensus is $2.69 on a 1.9% top line increase. CONCLUSION: With the shares up 19% year to date, compared to the S&P 500 up 7.0%, stock could likely come under pressure today given the muted outlook, but we remain on the sidelines. Although we sense that we are nearing a bottom in sales, we have yet to see a near term inflection that would drive growth and upside to earnings near term. AIT is scheduled to host its conference call at 10:00AM EST, We hope to attain greater detail regarding the AIT's outlook. Autos: Early-August Channel Check mm -17.5mm Light Vehicle Saar Expected Analyst: Richard M. Kwas, CFA (AUTOMOTIVE, MARKET WEIGHT) (BWA, $34.00, OUTPERFORM) (DLPH, $65.35, OUTPERFORM) (GNTX, $18.19, OUTPERFORM / V) (HAR, $84.91, OUTPERFORM / V) (MBLY, $45.73, OUTPERFORM / V) (ALV, $107.20, MARKET PERFORM) (AN, $49.46, MARKET PERFORM) (GPI, $61.39, MARKET PERFORM) (JCI, $44.75, MARKET PERFORM) (MGA, $41.06, MARKET PERFORM / V) (PAG, $41.30, MARKET PERFORM) (TEN, $55.82, MARKET PERFORM / V) (TOWR, $22.80, MARKET PERFORM / V) (VC, $71.09, MARKET PERFORM) CHANNEL CHECK. Our channels are indicating a MM seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) figure for the month. In the first ten days, we sensed that comparables are not representative since August 2015 had two weekends versus one weekend this year. From our conversations, we believe there could be risk to the month as there are four weekends this month versus five weekends last year. THOUGHTS. As for auto dealer stocks (AN, PAG, GPI), we believe a 17+MM August SAAR print would be a near-term positive. SAAR stabilization plus inventory correction (Ford appears to be heavy) would help dealer stocks in the near- 2

3 Equity Flash Notes term. OEM production cuts would be an overhang on supplier shares. However, we like suppliers with content stories. We reiterate our Outperform ratings on BWA, DLPH, GNTX, HAR, and MBLY. We maintain Market Perform ratings on ALV, AN, GPI, JCI, MGA, PAG, TEN, TOWR, and VC. Energy And Utility Daily Analyst: Sarah Akers, CFA (ENERGY TEAM, NA) (WGL, $66.00, MARKET PERFORM) (SRE, $106.99, OUTPERFORM) (ED, $78.39, MARKET PERFORM) Quick thoughts from Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Energy & Utility Team: Utilities WGL Holdings (WGL/Market Perform) (Akers) - Yesterday (8/11), shares of WGL fell 1.4% - underperforming the S&P Utilities of +0.1% - following reports of an explosion and fire that destroyed an apartment complex in Silver Springs, MD (within WGL's service territory) late Wednesday night. The event resulted in 2 deaths and over 30 others were injured. An investigation is underway, but the cause of the explosion and fire (and question of which came first) remains unknown as immediate efforts were focused on relocating the 90+ displaced residents and locating those unaccounted for. Local officials confirmed natural gas stoves and furnaces were present in each unit and, separately, that the fire department and building managers had not received any complaints prior to the incident. During market hours yesterday, WGL issued a press release stating the company is supporting state and federal officials in the ongoing investigation. While it would be premature to draw any conclusions at this point, near-term uncertainty related to WGL's potential liability could serve as an overhang on shares, in our view, until the root cause has been identified - not unlike other gasrelated incidents in recent history (albeit of varying scale) including the leak at Sempra Energy's (SRE/Outperform) Aliso Canyon gas storage facility and the gas leak/explosion in Consolidated Edison's (ED/Market Perform) Manhattan service territory. At present, local police are leading the investigation but we would expect greater involvement from state and federal agencies going forward as more facts are gathered. In the interim, we'll be listening for any additional information from WGL, which the company expects to disclose as it when available/appropriate. MYCC: West Coast (Sf/La) Investor Meeting Takeaways ClubCorp Holdings, Inc. Analyst: Timothy Conder, CPA (TRAVEL SERVICES, MARKET WEIGHT) (MYCC, $14.31, OUTPERFORM) ** We hosted CFO Curt McClellan and President/COO Mark Burnett for a series of investor meetings in SF/LA on Aug Conversations focused on ClubCorp's three prong long-term growth strategy: (1) delivering 3-5% organic revenue growth and 5-7% adj. EBITDA, (2) reinventing existing/acquired clubs to drive membership usage and higher dues/spending, and (3) making opportunistic acquisitions. The emphasize is not growing total membership but to driving topline growth through (1) +3-5% annual dues increases at core clubs, higher at reinvented clubs, and ONE product penetration/expansion, and (2) greater club usage/spending (''share of wallet''). Reinventions continue to provide the best opportunity for MYCC's capital allocation, given post-reinvented club performance continues to exceed targeted 17% returns (cash-on-cash by year three). MYCC has ample dry powder ($105MM cash balance) to maintain a steady acquisition pipeline. Management emphasized the ebb-and-flow of acquisitions, but the company continues to see attractive opportunities in the 1-2 club clusters, member owned, and in the East and Southeast regions. Average acquisition price paid 1.5x revenues ($5MM cost plus $2MM reinvention capital) with a 6x EBITDA lookback return. We 3

4 Equity Squawk Newsletter remain constructive on MYCC given valuation in light of the resilient business model, long-term growth opportunities, prudent capital allocation and proven management. ** Robust business model and core consumer. MYCC's business model is resilient given 50% of revenues come from steady stream dues based income and the company's target ''mass affluent'' core consumer. Golf & Country club (GCC) segment (80% revenues, 85% EBITDA) peak to trough EBITDA dropped 7% during the recent recession. GCC members average age 51 (vs. 55 in 2009), with HHI $150K-$200K, net worth $500K-$750K, average times a year club visits. ** Capital allocation. MYCC generates consistent $100MM in annual FCF. Prioritization of uses (1) approximately $33MM dividend payments, (2) a third towards reinvention capital (plus historical 3.5% maintenance capital), and lastly, (3) acquisitions or debt reduction. Management remains comfortable with 4-5x leverage range (high end post acquisitions). BC/DOO/MBUU/MCFT: July U.S. Boat Industry Retail Est. Flattish On Calendar Timing--Broad Fundamentals Intact Analyst: Timothy Conder, CPA (POWERSPORTS, OVERWEIGHT) (BC, $49.84, OUTPERFORM) (DOO, $22.37, OUTPERFORM) (MBUU, $12.98, OUTPERFORM / V) (MCFT, $11.77, OUTPERFORM / V) ** We believe U.S. industry July retail unit sales in the main powerboat segment were likely flattish yr/yr, based on conversations with our industry lending contacts. Deceleration from recent trends is solely due to the fewer non-holiday weekdays in July 2016 (20) vs. July 2015 (22) when dealer payoffs and state registration typically take place. July trend anomalies are reportedly already self-correcting in August (2 additional weekdays). June retail sales, initially reported +8.9% (based on data from 24 early reporting states), will NOT likely be materially revised as additional states report. Year-to-date trends continue to demonstrate broad-based strength across categories with Aluminum Fishing, Pontoons, Yachts, Ski/Wake and Runabouts seeing the highest growth. We are upwardly-narrowing our 2016 U.S. industry outlook for +6% unit growth (prior +5-6%) with +9-12% dollar growth (unchanged) given richer mix trends. H216 trends will likely be similar to H116. U.S. dealer aged inventory (new product older than 12 months still in dealer inventory) and inventory turn trends remain intact and on track for fourth consecutive year of record best levels. Given industry/oem/dealer fundamental setup, we believe it would take a major external shock to derail the U.S. industry trajectory. Marine equity values remain very attractive in our view. We favor BC (mid/large cap) and MBUU/MCFT (small cap). **2016E Unit Sales Outlook. Industry +6% (+6.2% in 2015). Aluminum Fishing up similar to 2015 (+6.6% in 2015). Pontoons accelerating from 2015 (+6.9% in 2015). Saltwater Fishing +8% (+8.7% in 2015). Runabouts/Deckboats up slightly (down in 2015). Ski/Wake +9% (+9.7% in 2015). **OEM Production Levels. Dealers are approaching seasonal low in channel inventories (typically mid-august) ahead of MY2017 product releases and annual dealer meetings (typically August to mid-october). We believe OEMs are waiting on the dealer meetings/new model orders before adjusting production schedules. We believe production in late Q316/Q416 will ultimately be revised modestly upward given the ongoing trajectory of retail sales (especially Pontoon), record high inventory turns, and record low aging. NVDA: Nvidia Earnings--First Thoughts Nvidia Corporation Analyst: David Wong, CFA, PhD (SEMICONDUCTORS, OVERWEIGHT) (NVDA, $59.70, UNDERPERFORM) 4

5 Equity Flash Notes Nvidia is continuing to do very well in overall revenue growth, beating expectations with its July report and October guidance. Nevertheless, we continue to think that competitive risks are growing for the company, particularly in gaming and datacenter. Gaming and professional graphics showed solid growth, while datacenter and automotive also contributed to growth in the July quarter. *** Nvidia reported revenues for the quarter of $1.43 billion (+9% sequentially, up 24% year/year), above its original guidance range of $1.35 billion +/- 2%. GAAP EPS for the quarter was $0.40, above the consensus estimate of $0.37 and our $0.36 GAAP EPS estimate. Coming quarter guidance is for sales of $1.68 billion +/- 2% (midpoint=up 18% qtr-qtr and up 29% yr/yr), above the consensus expectation of $1.453 billion and our own estimate of $1.450 billion prior to the call. *** Reported GAAP gross margin in the quarter rose to 57.9% from 57.5% in the prior quarter, slightly above the midpoint of guidance for gross margin to be 57.7% +/- 50bps. Coming quarter GAAP gross margin is expected to be 57.8% (+/- 50bps). *** GAAP operating expenses during the quarter were $509 million (including stock compensation and other charges), which was above the guidance of roughly $500 million. Nvidia guided for GAAP operating expenses of about $530 million in the coming quarter. *** Inventory was $521 million, up from $394 million in the prior quarter. This equates to 79 days of inventory, up from 65 days in the prior quarter and 77 days a year earlier. *** Nvidia's gaming sales were $781 million, up 14% sequentially (up 18% year/year) driven by Pascal GPU sales. Professional visualization sales were $214 million, up 13% sequentially (up 22% year/year). Datacenter sales were $151 million, up 6% sequentially (up 110% year/year) on strong deep learning demand. Automotive sales were $119 million, up 5% sequentially (up 68% year/year). OEM & IP revenues were $163 million, down 6% sequentially (down 6% year/year). Reit Exposure To Macy's Analyst: Jeffrey J. Donnelly, CFA (REGIONAL MALLS, MARKET WEIGHT) Macy's Closures. Macy's announced 100 store closures, 15% of its full-line store count, a significant step for Macy's which, over the last six years has closed only 90 stores. Closures are expected in early 2017 or as leases expire. While the specific list of stores closing was not announced, Macy's is concentrating resources on better-performing locations which should benefit higher-productivity mall REITs. Macy's indicated some of the closures reflect the value of the real estate being greater than the value to Macy's as a retail store which could result in opportunities for the REITs to purchase Macy's-owned boxes and reposition them. One concern for landlords is lease co-tenancy clauses, particularly if the closures are in the same centers where Sears stores are also closing. However, this lease characteristic is changing given more pervasive anchor weakness and less reliance by landlords on traditional anchor tenants as landlords recognize entertainment-oriented tenants (theaters, restaurants) as increasingly important traffic drivers. The financial impact to mall REITs should be minimal given the low rent paid by anchors, high REIT anchor occupancy, and the better quality of REIT portfolios overall, but investors could look at this announcement as further reason to avoid the lower-productivity segment. Furthermore, it could stall B/C mall transactions. REIT management teams have discussed anchor tenants being focused on four-wall profitability as a reason to keep stores open but Macy's highlighted that the majority of the stores expected to close are profitable, but that profits were declining, leading to limited capital investment in those stores that ultimately tarnish the brand. Exposure. According to SNL Financial, company documents, and our estimates, as a percentage of mall square footage, Macy's occupies 15% of PEI's portfolio, 15% of MAC's, 12.6% of SPG's, 12% of GGP's, 9% of CBL's, and 9% of WPG's. Although not reported by all of the mall REITs, SNL Financial shows Macy's contributes minimally to annualized revenues; 1.8% for PEI, 0.4% for SPG, and 0.3% for WPG. 5

6 Equity Squawk Newsletter Required Disclosures This is a compendium report, to view current important disclosures and other certain content related to the securities recommended in this publication, please go to or send an to: equityresearch1@wellsfargo.com or a written request to Wells Fargo Securities Research Publications, 7 St. Paul Street, Baltimore, MD Additional Information Available Upon Request I certify that: 1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. STOCK RATING 1=Outperform: The stock appears attractively valued, and we believe the stock's total return will exceed that of the market over the next 12 months. BUY 2=Market Perform: The stock appears appropriately valued, and we believe the stock's total return will be in line with the market over the next 12 months. HOLD 3=Underperform: The stock appears overvalued, and we believe the stock's total return will be below the market over the next 12 months. SELL SECTOR RATING O=Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. M=Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. U=Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. VOLATILITY RATING V = A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has fluctuated by +/-20% or greater in at least 8 of the past 24 months or if the analyst expects significant volatility. All IPO stocks are automatically rated volatile within the first 24 months of trading. As of: August 12, % of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Outperform. 56% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Market Perform. 3% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Underperform. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 37% of its Equity Research Outperform-rated companies. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 27% of its Equity Research Market Perform-rated companies. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 4% of its Equity Research Underperform-rated companies. 6

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