Equity Research. Equity Flash Notes. June 21, Equity Flash Notes
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1 June 21, 2016 Equity Research Equity Flash Notes 8:30 A.M. Edition This report is a compilation of our most recently published Flash Notes. INSIDE THIS ISSUE Page Headline Analyst 2 TEX: Terex Corporation: Tex: Asset Sale Announcement Casey Appears To Be Directional Positive 2 WERN: Werner Enterprises, Inc.: Wern: Guides Down Q2 -- Deak Truckload Under Pressure 2 PEGI, WR, GXP: Energy And Utility Daily Kalton 3 FATE: Fate Therapeutics, Inc.: FATE : Protmune Granted Fast Track Designation 4 INTC, NVDA: Intel Corp.: INTC: Launch Of Xeon Phi Knights Landing Co-Processor Family 5 SGMO: Continued Progress With Gene Editing Platform On Mpsii Ind Approval Birchenough Wong Birchenough Equity Flash Notes Equity Research Department Please see page 5 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications All estimates/forecasts are as of 06/21/16 unless otherwise stated. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
2 Equity Squawk Newsletter TEX: Asset Sale Announcement Appears To Be Directional Positive Terex Corporation Analyst: Andrew Casey (MACHINERY, MARKET WEIGHT) (TEX, $21.66, OUTPERFORM / V) In the wake of its May 16, 2016 agreement to sell its Material Handling and Port Solutions business (MHPS) to Konecranes and termination of Zoomlion discussions (May 27, 2016), TEX announced an additional step to focus its portfolio on product categories where the company has a significant market presence and can generate the greatest returns for shareholders. TEX announced an agreement to sell its German compact construction business to Yanmar Holdings Co., Ltd. for cash proceeds of approximately $60 million with a targeted H2 16 closing (subject to government regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions). While specific financial information is limited, our initial take is that the announcement appears to be a directional positive, in that it is consistent with CEO Garrison's prior strategy and illustrates the company has maintained multiple options to optimize its portfolio while pursuing other internal initiatives to improve returns. The assets included in this sale are a subset of TEX's Construction business. No specific financial information about the assets to be sold was released by either company. The total Construction business segment generated approximately $2.2 million adjusted trailing 12-month operating profit and represents approximately 9% of trailing 12-month sales (i.e., 12% if MHPS is removed). The German compact construction business manufactures and sells midi/mini excavators, wheeled excavators and compact wheel loaders. Included in the transaction is the manufacturing facility located in Crailsheim, Germany and the parts distribution center located in Rothenburg, Germany. WERN: Guides Down Q2 -- Truckload Under Pressure Werner Enterprises, Inc. Analyst: Casey S. Deak, CFA (TRUCKING, MARKET WEIGHT) (WERN, $24.68, MARKET PERFORM) WERN announced after the market on June 20, 2016 that it expects Q EPS in a range of $ This also includes approximately $ per share from a gain on real estate. Street consensus is $0.40 versus our $0.39. We expect the shares of asset-based carriers to be under pressure on the news, including peers SWFT, HTLD and KNX, while non-asset brokers CHRW, XPO and LSTR relatively outperform on news of continued rate pressure in truckload. WERN pointed to sluggish freight demand driving down rates per loaded mile, lower miles per truck and higher percentage of empty miles in the quarter. We had highlighted all three factors in our May 8, 2016 downgrade anticipating that fundamentals in the space continue to deteriorate throughout Two other factors continue to pressure earnings: driver pay increases and a soft used truck market. The driver pay increases will not lap until fourth quarter and will continue to pressure yr/yr results. We would expect the used truck market weakness to level throughout the year as supply and Energy And Utility Daily Analyst: Neil Kalton, CFA (ENERGY TEAM, NA) (PEGI, $21.56, OUTPERFORM / V) (WR, $55.80, MARKET PERFORM) 2
3 Equity Flash Notes (GXP, $29.60, MARKET PERFORM) Quick thoughts from Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Energy & Utility Team: Utilities Pattern Energy (PEGI/Outperform) (Kalton) - In a 6/16 filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, SunEdison outlined plans to sell the development rights to the proposed 600 MW (megawatt) King Pine wind project to Pattern Renewables, LP. Recall that Pattern Renewables is a subsidiary of Pattern Energy Group LP (PEGI-LP), the development arm for PEGI. Completion of the $26.5MM transaction is contingent upon the proposed project being selected and subsequently receiving a supply contract in the New England Clean Energy Request For Proposal (RFP) issued in late The project, if selected in the RFP, would likely be added to PEGI-LP's existing 5,900 MW development pipeline, which is available to be added to PEGI's identified Right of First Offer (irofo) drop down list - the irofo list currently stands at 1,300 MW. We view the addition of King Pine to PEGI's development pipeline positively as it is indicative of the company's continued opportunistic search for prospects in the third party project market. King Pine, which is planned to be constructed in northeastern Maine, would be the largest wind project in the state. The project is currently being considered, along with other clean energy projects, by the New England Clean Energy Evaluation Team. The team is expected to conclude evaluations (and make selections) on or by 7/26 with contracts expected to be executed by then end of September. Competing projects bid into the RFP include those proposed by NextEra (NEE) and other wind developers. Great Plains Energy, Inc. (GXP/Market Perform) & Westar Energy (WR/Market Perform) (Akers) - Yesterday (6/20) we met with GXP's management team in Kansas City. The general message on the WR acquisition remains the same: derisking the financing plans, assuring regulators/constituents of deal merits, and high confidence in synergy expectations. On the financing front, mgmt. discussed the two shareholder votes needed to execute on equity financing plans including the issuance of over 20% of shares outstanding (requires 50% of vote) and an absolute increase in the authorized shares (requires 50% of total shares). Of note, GXP has authorization to issue up to 250 million shares already. This compares to current shares outstanding of 155 million. After taking into consideration the shares to be issued for the 15% stock portion of the deal and the $750mm preferred mandatory convertibles, that still leaves capacity for equity issuances well north of $500mm by our calculations. Given a desire to de-risk the financing, we expect GXP would move forward with some level of equity after the S-4 is filed. The timing of the remaining equity/convertibles depends on the two votes, which could be in the October/November time frame. Shifting to regulation, we discussed the states' approaches to equity ratios. While GXP had been using parent equity ratios since 2008, which provided financial support for the Aquila utilities after that acquisition, the pending GMO case is on a subsidiary level capital structure and all future cases will follow suit. Mgmt. emphasized the logic in using the operating company equity ratios including maintaining financial integrity and not burdening ratepayers with acquisition debt financing costs. The company plans to work with regulators to assure no customer impact of the parent debt. Unrelated to the capital structure, mgmt. appeared encouraged by the MO generic regulatory docket and plans to continue pursuing mechanisms (property tax, transmission) in Missouri rate cases. Lastly, mgmt. affirmed that synergy targets are based on identified savings and the company will work to find additional opportunities through best practices. Longer-term, cost savings could provide rate headroom for investment to further reliability, clean energy, and economic initiatives. We see an attractive path to 6-8% EPS growth with upside potential. Our Market Perform ratings reflects risks that are, to some degree, outside of mgmt's control including equity markets (plans to issue $2.35B) and regulatory (namely on equity ratios). FATE : Protmune Granted Fast Track Designation Fate Therapeutics, Inc. Analyst: Jim Birchenough, MD 3
4 Equity Squawk Newsletter (BIOTECHNOLOGY, OVERWEIGHT) (FATE, $2.00, OUTPERFORM / V) Fate Therapeutics (FATE) announced yesterday that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has granted Fast Track designation for ProTmune to reduce incidence and severity of acute graft-versus-host disease (agvhd) in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-hct); FATE also expects ProTmune to reduce posttransplant infection risk. The company announced that a first in man phase 1/2 trial using mobilized peripheral blood as a stem cell source in the setting of hematologic malignancy has begun enrollment. In phase 1, 10 patients will receive a ProTmune treated allo-hct and following a safety review including neutrophil engraftment, 60 subjects will be randomized to a standard or ProTmune allo-hct with key endpoints of agvhd and cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection rate. Recall, ProTmune builds from the company's original product candidate, ProHema by adding a second small molecule to the ex-vivo incubation of stem cells which is conducted immediately prior to their infusion. Preliminary data from ProHema in the setting of an umbilical cord allo-hct suggests that compared to historical controls, ProHema reduced risk for agvhd and clinically significant CMV infection presumably by reducing the activity of auto-reactive T cells while promoting the activity of immune cells against pathogens. We continue to believe that ProTmune represents an advance over prior first-generation stem cell product Prohema, in terms of source of cells, with peripheral stem cells more commonly used in transplant than umbilical stem cells sourced for Prohema. We believe that Prohema has established proof-of-concept for ProTmune and believe that reduced CMV infection risk and reduced GvHD risk would address a significant unmet need in stem cell transplant. Overall, however, we believe that FATE's induced pluripotent stem cell (ipsc) platform represents a greater value driver and look to updates in immuno-oncology to provide greater upside potential. INTC: Launch Of Xeon Phi Knights Landing Co-Processor Family Intel Corp. Analyst: David Wong, CFA, PhD (SEMICONDUCTORS, OVERWEIGHT) (INTC, $32.17, OUTPERFORM) (NVDA, $47.56, MARKET PERFORM) At the ISC (International Supercomputing Conference) show in Germany today Intel formally launched its 14nm Knights Landing Xeon Phi co-processor family. This follows the launch of three new 14nm server processor families (Broadwell- EP for 2-way servers, Broadwell-EP for 4-way servers and Broadwell-EX for business critical servers) over the last three months. We think that Intel's broad refresh of key data center products will help drive data center growth in the June 2016 quarter and second half of this year. We are reiterating our Outperform rating for Intel. We think that Intel's refresh of its Xeon Phi line poses a renewed competitive threat to Nvidia in the data center co-processor space. We remain cautious on Nvidia with a Market Perform rating. *** Intel lists a total of 8 Knights Landing Xeon Phi x200 coprocessors with three of them being launched today, one to launch in September 2016, and four to launch in October *** Intel's Knights Landing coprocessors feature up to 72 cores, Omni-Path fabric, and 16GB of integrated high-speed memory. *** Intel expects over 100,000 units of Xeon Phi co-processors will be sold in With list prices ranging from about $2,000 to $6,000, this equates to several hundred million dollars of sales. We believe that Intel's revenue share in the data center coprocessor market has been running at about 20-25% in recent quarters, with Nvidia controlling the majority share of the market. We think that ramping sales of the new Knights Landing products may well result in Intel gaining share from Nvidia in the high performance computing (HPC) coprocessor space in the second half of 2016 and in However, we believe that Nvidia has a head start over Intel in beginning to penetrate the hyperscale coprocessor market. 4
5 Equity Flash Notes Continued Progress With Gene Editing Platform On Mpsii Ind Approval Analyst: Jim Birchenough, MD (BIOTECHNOLOGY, OVERWEIGHT) (SGMO, $5.72, OUTPERFORM / V) Sangamo BioSciences (SGMO) announced today that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) cleared the company's investigational new drug (IND) application for its genome editing product candidate SB-913 for the treatment of mucopolysaccharidosis type II (MPS II), or Hunter syndrome. SB-913 is the third product candidate from the company's In Vivo Protein Replacement Platform (IVPRP), which uses zinc finger nucleases (ZFNs) to target the albumin locus for expression of therapeutic genes, to go into clinical development (following hemophilia B and MPS I programs). SGMO expects to initiate in 2H16 a phase 1/2 study of SB-913 in adult patients with MPS II (n=9), and, upon positive data in adults, to extend studies into pediatric populations. Recall that in preclinical studies, an IVPRP approach demonstrated continuous production of active human iduronate 2-sulfatase (hids), the missing/defective enzyme in MPS II, from the liver of MPS II mice, as well as the secretion and uptake of hids by secondary tissues including the brain, with a preservation of cognitive function that distinguishes the IVPRP approach from the standard of care enzyme replacement approach (which could not cross the blood-brain barrier due to a short half-life). It is estimated that there are approximately 500 MPS II patients in the U.S. and 2,000 patients worldwide. We believe that a gene editing approach to MPS II with zinc finger nucleases could have significant advantage over enzyme replacement therapy, with potential for more physiologic continuous enzyme replacement, potential for cognitive improvement and straightforward single treatment. With this 3rd IND approval and potential for 3 additional IND's over the next months, we believe that SGMO is undervalued relative to these opportunities, and relative to other gene editing and gene therapy platforms. Required Disclosures This is a compendium report, to view current important disclosures and other certain content related to the securities recommended in this publication, please go to or send an to: equityresearch1@wellsfargo.com or a written request to Wells Fargo Securities Research Publications, 7 St. Paul Street, Baltimore, MD Additional Information Available Upon Request I certify that: 1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC maintains a market in the common stock of Nvidia Corporation, Fate Therapeutics, Inc., Sangamo BioSciences, Inc., Werner Enterprises, Inc., Terex Corporation, Pattern Energy Group, Inc., Intel Corp., Westar Energy, Inc. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates managed or comanaged a public offering of securities for Westar Energy, Inc., Intel Corp., Pattern Energy Group, Inc., Great Plains Energy Incorporated within the past 12 months. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from Great Plains Energy Incorporated, Intel Corp., Westar Energy, Inc., Sangamo BioSciences, Inc., Fate Therapeutics, Inc. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from Westar Energy, Inc., Intel Corp., Great Plains Energy Incorporated, Pattern Energy Group, Inc. in the past 12 months. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and/or its affiliates, have beneficial ownership of 1% or more of any class of the common stock of Westar Energy, Inc. Westar Energy, Inc., Intel Corp., Pattern Energy Group, Inc., Great Plains Energy Incorporated currently is, or during the 12- month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided investment banking services to Westar Energy, Inc., Intel Corp., Pattern Energy Group, Inc., Great 5
6 Equity Squawk Newsletter Plains Energy Incorporated. Intel Corp., Westar Energy, Inc. currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC provided noninvestment banking securitiesrelated services to Intel Corp., Westar Energy, Inc. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from Westar Energy, Inc., Intel Corp. in the past 12 months. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates has a significant financial interest in Intel Corp., Westar Energy, Inc., Great Plains Energy Incorporated, Terex Corporation, Werner Enterprises, Inc., Nvidia Corporation. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from an affiliate of Great Plains Energy Incorporated. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC or its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from an affiliate of Great Plains Energy Incorporated in the past 12 months. A member of the research analyst's household is currently an employee of BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Inc. and has received compensation from the company in the previous 12 months. FATE: Risks include failure to confirm previously described improvement in bone marrow recovery and CMV risk reductioný for PROTMUNE in transplant, or inability to advance ipsc programs in a reasonable timeframe. GXP: Key risks include cost pressures, lower than expected sales and negative regulatory developments. INTC: Company-specific risks include competition from AMD and rising capital spending. Sector risks include the possibility of decelerating growth in PC shipments. NVDA: Risks include a highly competitive business environment in both graphics and mobile processor chips, and the question of whether efforts by microprocessor makers to integrate graphics into microprocessor chips might impact the discrete GPU market. PEGI: Risks to our valuation include capital market risk, wind volumetric risk, growth projects not coming to fruition and loss of key employees. SGMO: Risks include further delay to clinical trial initiations, sub-optimal efficacy in early experience in Hurler's and hemophilia A, or failure to approach meaningful clinical benefit in lead programs, competitive with existing therapies or emerging gene editing/therapy platforms. TEX: Risks include: Pricing pressure, slower than anticipated construction recovery, and adverse currency fluctuations. WERN: Our estimates assume the benefits of 0-2% increases in rates in , without which they would likely not be reached. Economic deterioration would limit demand for WERN's services and likely pressure results. WR: In light of the pending takeout, the principal risk is failure to secure regulatory approvals for the pending acquisition. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. STOCK RATING 1=Outperform: The stock appears attractively valued, and we believe the stock's total return will exceed that of the market over the next 12 months. BUY 2=Market Perform: The stock appears appropriately valued, and we believe the stock's total return will be in line with the market over the next 12 months. HOLD 3=Underperform: The stock appears overvalued, and we believe the stock's total return will be below the market over the next 12 months. SELL SECTOR RATING O=Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. M=Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. U=Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. VOLATILITY RATING V = A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has fluctuated by +/-20% or greater in at least 8 of the past 24 months or if the analyst expects significant volatility. All IPO stocks are automatically rated volatile within the first 24 months of trading. As of: June 21, % of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Outperform. 54% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Equity Research are rated Market Perform. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 39% of its Equity Research Outperform-rated companies. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking services for 29% of its Equity Research Market Perform-rated companies. 3% of companies covered by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Securities, LLC has provided investment banking 6
7 Equity Flash Notes Equity Research are rated Underperform. services for 10% of its Equity Research Underperform-rated companies. Important Disclosure for International Clients EEA The securities and related financial instruments described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited ( WFSIL ). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For the purposes of Section 21 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 ( the Act ), the content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. Australia Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is exempt from the requirements to hold an Australian financial services license in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is regulated under U.S. laws which differ from Australian laws. Any offer or documentation provided to Australian recipients by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC in the course of providing the financial services will be prepared in accordance with the laws of the United States and not Australian laws. 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About Wells Fargo Securities Wells Fargo Securities is the trade name for the capital markets and investment banking services of Wells Fargo & Company and its subsidiaries, including but not limited to Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of NYSE, FINRA, NFA and SIPC, Wells Fargo Prime Services, LLC, a member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC, Wells Fargo Securities Canada, Ltd., a member of IIROC and CIPF, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This report is for your information only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, the securities or instruments named or described in this report. Interested parties are advised to contact the entity with which they deal, or the entity that provided this report to them, if they desire further information. 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8 Equity Squawk Newsletter 8
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