Market Update. Signs of a bottoming out?

Transcription

1 Market Update A Monthly Performance Report Signs of a bottoming out? Significant gains for global listed property After returning moderately positive in March 2009, the GPR 250 Index recorded a significant (18.8%) gain last month. At continental level, the American property stocks (28.7%) were best performers with Africa (3.4%) being the worst performing continent, albeit still returning positively. At country level, investors reignited interest in US REITs with the United States posting a considerable gain (30.9%). New Zealand (Kiwi Income Property Trust) appeared to be the exception to the rule after posting a monthly loss of 3.1%. Liberty International raises GBP 620m Liberty International said that a total of 200 million new ordinary shares had been placed at pence per share, raising gross proceeds of GBP 620m. The proceeds of the capital raising will reduce net indebtedness, increase the company's available cash and undrawn committed financing facilities, improve financial ratios and increase financial flexibility. Analysts Jeroen Vreeker j.vreeker@gpr.nl Floris van Dorp f.van.dorp@gpr.nl Global Property Research Beethovenstraat 300 P.O. Box AR Amsterdam The Netherlands Phone: /452 Fax: info@gpr.nl Optimism about US REITs on the rise Despite the collapse of General Growth Properties Inc., the optimism about US REITs has been increasing as the economy shows signs of bottoming and many property companies have raised billions of fresh equity using the proceeds for debt repayment and general corporate purposes. The recent spate of stock offerings by US REITs points to a possible pick-up in acquisitions going forward. In March 2009, Simon Property Group Inc. was one of the first to announce a stock offering, while in more than a dozen additional REITs announced stock offerings. Shareholders approve South African mega merger Redefine Income Fund unit holders have approved the resolutions required to implement the proposed acquisition of up to 100% of ApexHi Properties A, B and C units and 100% of the Madison Property Fund Managers Holdings Limited units. Additionally, unit holders of the targeted companies voted in favour of the proposed acquisition.

2 GLOBAL - DATA Graph 1: Continental performance of GPR 250 Property Shares Index (local Europe Americas Asia Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 30 Graph 2: Return and volatility of the major countries in the GPR 250 Property Shares Index based on 5 year figures (local currency) Bonds Switzerland Belgium Equities Singapore Sweden France Philippines Hong Kong Canada Netherlands Japan US Finland UK Australia Italy Germany Return (%) 15% 5% -5% -15% Austria -25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Volatility (%) -35% Graph 3: Rolling 36-month correlation on continental level of the GPR 250 Property Shares Index (local currency) Europe - America Europe - Asia America - Asia Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr Global Property Research 2

3 GLOBAL - DATA Graph 4: Performance of property shares to other asset classes (local Property Shares (GPR 250) Equities (MSCI) Bonds (JP Morgan) Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 30 Graph 5: Rolling 36-months correlation between different asset classes (local Property Shares - Equities Property Shares - Bonds Equities - Bonds Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr Table 1: Performance of property shares and other assets TABLE 1. Local Total Returns Property Shares and Other Assets 1 month 6 months y-t-d 1 year 3 year 5 year volatility GPR 250 Global 18.8% -14.7% -7.4% -48.3% -18.0% -0.8% 0.28 GPR 250 Africa 3.4% 17.7% 0.1% 20.2% 9.0% 24.7% 0.26 GPR 250 Americas 28.7% -21.3% -11.9% -49.3% -17.4% -0.8% 0.37 GPR 250 Europe 20.3% -9.2% -0.3% -45.5% -21.2% -1.9% 0.26 GPR 250 Asia 11.1% -5.3% -2.4% -47.7% -14.7% 2.7% 0.28 GPR 250 Oceania 5.9% -27.8% -18.6% -55.2% -22.2% -7.8% 0.26 Global Bonds (JP Morgan) -0.5% 4.7% -0.8% 6.9% 5.1% 4.2% 0.03 Global Equities (MSCI) 10.4% -5.5% -0.5% -34.5% -11.2% -0.9% 0.18 Note: Volatility is the 36-month standard deviation of returns. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized Global Property Research 3

4 EUROPE - NEWS All European Countries In Positive Territory European listed property sector realised first positive monthly result of 2009 Liberty International said that a total of 200 million new ordinary shares had been placed at pence per share, raising gross proceeds of GBP 620m New Europe Property Investments has made an approach to acquire Carpathian Plc for EUR 0.20 a share The GPR 250 Europe index ended 20.3% higher in, the first positive monthly result of Furthermore, all countries posted positive returns with Greece (Babis Vovos I.C.; 133.3%) ranked best performer. Norway (Norwegian Property; 98.5%), Austria (51.0%), Finland (28.5%) and heavily weighted United Kingdom (24.9%) were also among the best performing countries. The worst performing countries were Italy (13.8%), Netherlands (13.1%), Belgium (13.0%) and Switzerland (8.1%). In a European perspective, Deutsche EuroShop (-1.4%) and Nieuwe Steen Investments (-4.0%) were the only constituents posting a loss in the previous month. In March 2009, the European listed property sector outperformed both general equities (20.3% versus 13.0%) and bonds (20.3% versus -0.4%). Liberty International said that a total of 200 million new ordinary shares had been placed at pence per share, raising gross proceeds of GBP 620m. The proceeds of the capital raising will reduce net indebtedness, increase the company's available cash and undrawn committed financing facilities, improve financial ratios and increase financial flexibility. The Gordon Family interests have subscribed for 9.7 million firm placed shares at the issue price and have also committed to claw back an additional 3.2 million of new ordinary shares under their entitlement as shareholders in the open offer.. London & Stamford Property Ltd. aims to invest GBP 600m in property by the end of the second quarter and will consider raising more money thereafter. The company, which principally invests in UK prime commercial property, has GBP 600m of available funds in cash and leverage and is currently eyeing at a dozen potential acquisitions. The company focuses on UK retail properties but also considers overseas investments and bought a London office building in January It also bought a 50% stake (in a joint venture with a partner) in Sheffield's Meadowhall, one of UK's biggest shopping centres, from British Land in February New Europe Property Investments has made an approach to acquire Carpathian Plc for EUR 0.20 a share. Carpathian Plc said it is seeking further clarification in a number of areas, such as due diligence and financing, as well as consulting with its key shareholders, before formally considering the offer. Unifinter Administratiekantoor B.V. and Summit Germany Limited have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended cash offer for the entire issued share capital. The offer at EUR 0.21 per ordinary share in cash values the company at EUR 57.75m. Unifinter Administratiekantoor B.V. is a non-trading special purpose vehicle, which is wholly owned by Summit Real Estate Holdings Limited, a Tel Aviv listed property company. Global Property Research 4

5 EUROPE DATA 360% 140% Graph 6: Top and bottom performing European companies (local 320% 280% 240% 200% 120% 100% 80% Graph 7: Top and bottom performing 160% 120% 80% 40% 0% -40% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% European countries (local Nieuwe Steen Investments NV Deutsche EuroShop Allreal Holding AG Swiss Prime Site Segro Plc Sparkassen Immobilien AG Immofinanz AG Norwegian Property Babis Vovos International Construction Quintain Estates & Development Plc Switzerland Belgium Netherlands Italy Turkey United Kingdom Finland Austria Norway Greece Table 2: Long and short-term returns of European countries (local TABLE 2. Local Total Returns of European Countries (GPR 250) 1 month 6 months y-t-d 1 year 3 year 5 year volatility Europe 20.3% -9.2% -0.3% -45.5% -21.2% -1.9% 0.26 Austria 51.0% 34.2% 95.1% -68.9% -39.3% -21.9% 0.62 Belgium 13.0% 5.7% -1.4% -19.7% -3.8% 3.2% 0.20 Finland 28.5% -6.0% 4.7% -56.3% -20.3% -3.7% 0.36 France 15.5% -1.2% 4.5% -35.8% -8.6% 10.3% 0.25 Germany 17.6% 13.7% 5.0% -53.5% -32.5% -7.1% 0.43 Greece 133.3% -66.7% -45.3% -74.9% N/A N/A N/A Italy 13.8% -0.6% -3.3% -40.8% -22.8% -6.0% 0.38 Netherlands 13.1% -11.7% -1.0% -42.1% -12.3% 2.7% 0.23 Norway 98.5% -20.6% 30.6% -81.0% N/A N/A N/A Poland 21.6% 11.1% 18.6% -50.9% -12.2% N/A 0.43 Sweden 18.9% 14.4% -5.9% -23.0% -7.8% 11.7% 0.34 Switzerland 8.1% 5.3% 6.4% -9.0% -2.0% 6.6% 0.19 Turkey 14.6% 96.2% 65.3% 4.7% -21.4% N/A 0.45 United Kingdom 24.9% -27.4% -14.4% -51.8% -26.6% -6.5% 0.31 MSCI Europe 13.0% -3.9% 0.1% -32.9% -10.5% 1.3% 0.19 JP Morgan Germany -0.4% 5.9% 0.1% 10.3% 5.5% 4.9% 0.04 Note: Volatility is the 36-month standard deviation of returns. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized Global Property Research 5

6 AMERICA - NEWS Optimism About US REITs On The Rise Interest in REITs was reignited by investors in, with the listed property stocks in the Americas continent gaining 28.7% on aggregate General Growth Properties Inc. filed for Chapter 11 protection Many US REITs sold fresh equity Even in order three to repay parties outstanding targeting a debt takeover and for general of The corporate Mills Corp. purposes Pulte Homes, Inc. and Centex Corporation announced that their respective boards of directors had unanimously approved a definitive merger agreement Interest in REITs was reignited by investors in, with the listed property stocks in the Americas continent gaining 28.7% on aggregate. In the previous month, the United States even posted a 30.9% gain, while the returns for Brazil (15.9%) and Canada (7.1%) were also positive yet more moderate. The hotel sector (49.5%) was the best performing sector ahead of retail (37.1%) and office (36.7%). Although all in positive territory, the worst performing sectors were residential (20.5%) and healthcare (19.0%), which also posted double-digit gains. General Growth Properties Inc. announced that it was voluntarily seeking relief to reduce and restructure its debts under Chapter 11 of the United States bankruptcy code. In addition, approximately 158 regional shopping centres owned and certain other subsidiaries have filed for protection. As a result, the company was removed from the GPR 250 Index on 20. Despite the collapse of General Growth Properties Inc., the optimism about US REITs has been increasing as the economy shows signs of bottoming and many property companies have raised billions of fresh equity. Kimco Realty Corporation (USD 747.1m), ProLogis (USD 1,153.7m), Equity One, Inc. (USD 93.0m, excluding the over-allotment option), Acadia Realty Trust (USD 68.7m), DiamondRock Hospitality Company (USD 86.5m), Weingarten Realty Investors (USD 458.9m), Duke Realty Corporation (USD 575.4m), Ventas, Inc. (USD 312.2m), Vornado Realty Trust (USD 741.8m), Parkway Properties, Inc. (USD 85.7m, excluding the over-allotment option), LaSalle Hotel Properties (USD 124.9m), Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (USD 500.0m), Regency Centers Corporation (USD 282.8m, excluding the over-allotment option), Washington Real Estate Investment Trust (USD 107.0m, excluding the over-allotment option) and Mack-Cali Realty Corporation (USD 250.0m, excluding the over-allotment option) all sold fresh equity using the proceeds for debt repayment and general corporate purposes. The recent spate of stock offerings by US REITs points to a possible pick-up in acquisitions going forward. Pulte Homes, Inc. and Centex Corporation announced that their respective boards of directors had unanimously approved a definitive merger agreement under which both companies will combine in a stock-for-stock transaction valued at USD 3.1bn, including USD 1.8bn of net debt. Centex Corporation shareholders will receive shares of Pulte Homes, Inc. common stock for each share of Centex Corporation they own. Upon the closing of the transaction, Pulte Homes, Inc. shareholders will own approximately 68% of the combined company, and Centex Corporation shareholders will own approximately 32%. Global Property Research 6

7 AMERICA DATA Graph 8: 240% 40% Top and bottom performing American companies (local 200% 160% 120% 30% 20% 80% 10% 40% Graph 9: Top and bottom performing 0% -40% 0% -10% American countries (local Investors Real Estate Trust Cominar Real Estate Investment Trust Canadian Apartment Pptys RE Canadian Real Estate Inv TR Artis REIT Brandywine Realty Trust Pennsylvania Real Estate Invest Trust Forest City Enterprises-Cl A The Macerich Company CBL & Associates Properties Canada Brazil United States Table 3: Long and short-term returns of American countries (local TABLE 3. Local Total Returns American Countries (GPR 250) 1 month 6 months y-t-d 1 year 3 year 5 year volatility Americas 28.7% -21.3% -11.9% -49.3% -17.4% -0.8% 0.37 Brazil 15.9% N/A 63.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A Canada 7.1% -13.9% -1.2% -36.7% -10.6% 3.1% 0.19 United States 30.9% -22.1% -12.9% -50.3% -18.0% -1.2% 0.39 MSCI North America 9.4% -7.4% -1.3% -34.7% -10.1% -1.9% 0.18 JP Morgan United States -1.9% 5.7% -3.4% 7.6% 8.2% 5.9% 0.06 Note: Volatility is the 36-month standard deviation of returns. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized Global Property Research 7

8 ASIA & OCEANIA - NEWS Shareholders Approve South African Mega Merger As was the case in March 2009, the Asian listed property sector posted a double-digit gain (11.1%) Shareholders approve merger of Redefine Income Fund, ApexHi Properties and Madison Property Fund Managers Holdings Limited. Dexus Property Group is seeking to raise as much as AUD 749m selling shares and plans to sell assets worth AUD 600m to cut debt As was the case in March 2009, the Asian listed property sector posted a doubledigit gain (11.1%). The best performing Asian country was Malaysia (IGB Corp. Bhd.; 33.3%) ahead of Hong Kong (17.4%), the Philippines (+12.5%) Singapore (12.4%), China (CapitaRetail China Trust; 8.8%) and Japan (8.4%). New Zealand (Kiwi Income Property Trust ) appeared to be the exception to the rule after posting a monthly loss of 3.1% wheras Australia gained 6.0%. South- Africa (3.4%) recorded a moderately positive result in. Redefine Income Fund unit holders have approved the resolutions required to implement the proposed acquisition of up to 100% of ApexHi Properties A, B and C units and 100% of the Madison Property Fund Managers Holdings Limited units. Additionally, ApexHi Properties unit holders voted in favour of the proposed acquisition while existing Madison Property Fund Managers Holdings Limited unit holders also agreed to the acquisition of the company by Redefine Income Fund, completing the last of the required investor approvals for the merger of Redefine Income Fund, ApexHi Properties and Madison Property Fund Managers Holdings Limited. Dexus Property Group is seeking to raise as much as AUD 749m selling shares and plans to sell assets worth AUD 600m to cut debt. The company is selling AUD 90m of new shares to institutions at AUD 0.65 a piece. Existing shareholders will be offered 2 new shares for every 7 to raise a further AUD 659m with the subscription period for retail investors running until 20 May The company plans to sell its French property portfolio, part of its US portfolio and selected Australian properties. According to sell-side analysts, the credit squeeze and increased costs of debt is putting the pressure on the Australian REITs to undertake more (dilutive) capital raisings, as property trusts are likely to struggle refinancing liabilities. The downside from these dilutive capital raisings might be further uncertainty for the Australian REITs sector. Towa Real Estate Development Company was de-listed from the Tokyo Stock Exchange on 23 following the completed merger with Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd. with the latter company offering of its own shares for every one Towa Real Estate Development Company share held. Keppel Land announced a nine (9) per ten (10) rights issue priced at SGD 1.09 each to raise gross proceeds of SGD 712.3m. Keppel Corporation has undertaken to sub-underwrite its share of rights, in support of Keppel Land. On top of the 52.64% pro-rata entitlement, Keppel Corporation has committed to underwrite 90% of the balance rights shares (90% of remaining 47.36%). The subscription period will run from 12 May 2009 until 2 June Global Property Research 8

9 ASIA & OCEANIA DATA Graph 10: 50% 40% Top and bottom performing Asian and Oceanian companies (local 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% Graph 11: Top and bottom performing Asian and Oceanian countries (local 10% 0% -10% -20% Tokyu REIT Daibiru Corporation Commonwealth Property Office Fund Orix JREIT Inc. Japan Retail Fund Investment ING Industrial Fund Allgreen Properties Ltd. Japan Office Investment Corp Japan Rental Housing Investments Inc. Nippon Residential Investment Trust 10% 0% -10% New Zealand South Africa Australia Japan China Singapore Philippines Hong Kong Malaysia Table 4: Long and short-term performance of Asian and Oceania countries (local TABLE 4. Local Total Returns of Asian and Oceania Countries (GPR 250) 1 month 6 months y-t-d 1 year 3 year 5 year volatility Africa 3.4% 17.7% 0.1% 20.2% 9.0% 24.7% 0.26 Asia 11.1% -5.3% -2.4% -47.7% -14.7% 2.7% 0.28 Oceania 5.9% -27.8% -18.6% -55.2% -22.2% -7.8% 0.26 Australia 6.0% -28.0% -18.8% -55.3% -22.3% -7.9% 0.26 China 8.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Hong Kong 17.4% 25.7% 19.8% -36.9% -1.9% 10.2% 0.32 Japan 8.4% -16.0% -10.0% -50.4% -20.3% -1.3% 0.31 Malaysia 33.3% N/A 30.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A New Zealand -3.1% N/A -8.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A Philippines 13.7% 4.1% 5.9% -13.8% -1.1% 11.5% 0.31 Singapore 12.4% 3.5% 4.9% -51.6% -11.8% 11.1% 0.31 South Africa 3.4% 17.7% 0.1% 20.2% 9.0% 24.7% 0.26 MSCI Pacific 9.1% -0.8% 1.4% -36.0% -15.7% -1.5% 0.20 JP Morgan Japan -0.3% 1.3% -1.0% 3.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.02 JP Morgan Australia -0.2% 5.8% -1.1% 15.9% 8.2% 7.2% 0.04 Note: Volatility is the 36-month standard deviation of returns. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized Global Property Research 9

10 GPR 250 REIT DATA Graph 12: Rolling 36-months correlation between different asset classes (local REITs - Property Shares REITs - Equities REITs - Bonds Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr Table 5: Long and short-term returns of of REITs TABLE 5. Local Total Returns of REITs (GPR 250 REIT) 1 month 6 months y-t-d 1 year 3 year 5 year volatility Global 19.0% -18.4% -10.4% -47.3% -17.8% -1.5% 0.28 Africa 3.8% 18.3% 1.7% 13.4% 3.6% 19.5% 0.26 Americas 28.7% -21.4% -12.4% -49.1% -17.0% -0.5% 0.37 Asia -0.5% -0.6% -3.8% -39.7% -15.0% -1.1% 0.24 Europe 18.7% -14.5% -4.6% -41.7% -18.4% 0.1% 0.25 Oceania 5.9% -27.8% -18.6% -55.2% -22.2% -7.8% 0.26 Australia 6.0% -28.0% -18.8% -55.3% -22.3% -7.9% 0.26 Belgium 13.0% 5.7% -1.4% -19.7% -3.8% 3.2% 0.20 Canada 7.3% -13.1% -0.3% -36.0% -10.3% 3.3% 0.19 China 8.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A France 15.5% -1.2% 4.5% -35.8% -8.5% N/A 0.25 Germany 22.8% -11.2% -8.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A Hong Kong -0.4% 14.4% 13.0% -22.6% -4.0% N/A 0.25 Italy 11.4% -2.8% -2.5% 54.1% N/A N/A N/A Japan -1.6% -1.4% -6.7% -38.9% -16.2% -3.7% 0.25 Netherlands 11.9% -11.2% 1.7% -36.3% -9.7% 4.6% 0.21 New Zealand -3.1% N/A -8.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A Singapore 5.5% -7.7% 2.4% -52.4% -14.0% N/A 0.31 South Africa 3.8% 18.3% 1.7% 13.4% 3.6% 19.5% 0.26 Turkey 14.6% 96.2% 65.3% 4.7% -21.4% N/A 0.45 United Kingdom 24.2% -28.4% -15.5% -50.1% N/A N/A N/A United States 30.7% -22.0% -13.1% -49.9% -17.5% -0.8% 0.39 Note: Volatility is the 36-month standard deviation of returns. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized Global Property Research 10

11 GPR 15 REAL TIME INDEX GPR 15 Index serves as a representative benchmark for the European market As of 30 June 2000, Global Property Research has launched the GPR 15 Index. The index tracks the performances of the 15 most liquid European property companies taking into account the country weight of the GPR 250 Europe. It covers more than 60% of the European market in terms of market capitalization. The number of stocks per company is fixed, so it is easy for investors to hedge the portfolio. The correlation between the GPR 15 and the GPR 250 Europe is about 0.99 over the past three years and 0.98 since inception. Country Company Weight 1 Austria ImmoEast AG 2.18% 2 Austria Immofinanz AG 1.91% 3 France Fonciere des Regions 3.89% 4 France Gecina 2.79% 5 France Klepierre 4.74% 6 France Unibail-Rodamco 26.28% 7 Germany IVG Immobilien AG 1.68% 8 Netherlands Corio NV 4.87% 9 Sweden Kungsleden AB 1.82% 10 Switzerland PSP Swiss Property 4.18% 11 United Kingdom British Land Company Plc 13.46% 12 United Kingdom Hammerson Plc 7.62% 13 United Kingdom Land Securities Plc 15.44% 14 United Kingdom Liberty International plc 4.21% 15 United Kingdom Segro Plc 4.92% GPR 250 Europe GPR 15 Index Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun Global Property Research 11

12 INDEX NEWS Global Property Research has observed the following changes in the GPR 250 Thomas Properties Group (United States) has been removed from the GPR 250 Indices as from 2 as the company s free float, calculated as the share price times the available amount of shares outstanding, has been below 50 million US dollar for two consecutive months. General Growth Properties Inc. (United States) has been removed from the GPR 250 Indices as from 20 after the company filed for bankruptcy protection. Maguire Properties Inc. (United States) has been removed from the GPR 250 Indices as from 22 as the company s free float, calculated as the share price times the available amount of shares outstanding, has been below 50 million US dollar for two consecutive months. Centro Properties Group (Australia) has been removed from the GPR 250 Indices as from 30 as the company s free float, calculated as the share price times the available amount of shares outstanding, has been below 50 million US dollar for two consecutive months. Global Property Research has observed the following changes in the GPR General Global Property Research will adjust the constituents of the GPR General Index on a monthly basis. The table below summarizes the inclusions and exclusions of the GPR General and the GPR General Quoted Index as from 1 May Open-ended funds, which are indicated with an asterisk, are excluded from the GPR General Quoted Index. Inclusions Exclusions Spain Realia Business SA Australia Orchard Industrial Property Fund Switzerland Jelmoli Holding Japan TGR Investment Company United States Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. United Kingdom Capital & Regional Plc United States LTC Properties United Kingdom Carpathian Plc United States National Health Investors United Kingdom Mapeley United States Omega Healthcare Investors United States General Growth Properties Inc. United States Meruelo Maddux Properties Inc. United States Thomas Properties Group Global Property Research 12

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