THE GUINNESS GLOBAL ENERGY REPORT

Transcription

1 Jun-2010 Nov-2010 Apr-2011 Sep-2011 Feb-2012 Jul-2012 Dec-2012 May-2013 Oct-2013 Mar-2014 Aug-2014 Jan-2015 Jun-2015 Nov-2015 '000 bbl/day THE GUINNESS GLOBAL ENERGY REPORT Developments and trends for investors in the global energy sector April 2016 GUINNESS GLOBAL ENERGY FUND Fund size: $308m ( ) The invests in listed equities of companies engaged in the exploration, production and distribution of oil, gas and other energy sources. We believe that over the next twenty years the combined effects of population growth, developing world industrialisation and diminishing fossil fuel supplies will force energy prices higher and generate growing profits for energy companies. The Fund is run by Tim Guinness, Will Riley and Jonathan Waghorn. The investment philosophy, methodology and style which characterise the Guinness approach have been applied to the management of energy equity portfolios since HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH OIL Brent and WTI up; macro data being increasingly more positive Brent oil traded up by $4/bbl to $40/bbl and WTI traded from $33.8/bbl to $38.3/bbl. US onshore oil production fell in January 2016, albeit at a slower rate than in December A further 7% fall in the oil directed rig count and supportive weekly US oil production data indicate that declines will continue. All eyes are now on the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting in Doha on April 17; will twelve key producing countries agree a production freeze? NATURAL GAS US gas prices rebound as market is structurally undersupplied Henry Hub prices traded up from their end February low of $1.71/mcf to close March at $2/mcf. High levels of gas in storage and warmer weather are still keeping a lid on prices although our analysis shows a structural (i.e. weather adjusted) undersupply of around 2bcf/day in March. EQUITIES Energy outperforms the broad market The MSCI World Energy Index rose in March by 8.8%, outperforming the MSCI World Index which rose by 6.9% (all in US dollar terms). So far in 2016, the Energy Index is up by 5.4%, versus the MSCI World down by 0.2%. CHART OF THE MONTH Iranian oil production picking up as expected Important information about this report This report is primarily designed to inform you about recent developments in the energy markets invested in by the. It also provides information about the Fund s portfolio, including recent activity and performance. This document is provided for information only and all the information contained in it is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete; any opinions stated are honestly held at the time of writing, but are not guaranteed. The contents of the document should not therefore be relied upon. It is not an invitation to make an investment nor does it constitute an offer for sale. Sanctions against Iran were lifted in January 2016 and the country shortly thereafter re-commenced oil exports. Recent Bloomberg survey data for March 2016 shows an increase in Iranian production of around 400k b/day from the December 2015 level. We believe Iran will add around 500kb/day on average in 2016 although near term production could be higher as barrels as still being produced from floating storage. Iran will need to incentivise many tens of billions of dollars of new investment to achieve its stated long term production target of 5m b/day. 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 Source: EIA; Guinness Funds, Red dot indicates OPEC November 2014 meeting Tel: +44 (0) info@ Web: Guinness Asset Management Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

2 Contents 1. MARCH IN REVIEW MANAGER S COMMENTS PERFORMANCE PORTFOLIO OUTLOOK APPENDIX Oil and gas markets historical context MARCH IN REVIEW i) Oil market Figure 1: Oil price (WTI and Brent $/barrel) 18 months September to March $ Brent WTI 20 Sep '14 Dec '14 Mar '15 Jun '15 Sep '15 Dec '15 Mar '16 Source: Bloomberg LP The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price started March at $33.7/bbl and rose steadily through the month to close at $38.3/bl, having peaked at $41.5/bbl on 22 March. WTI averaged $48.7 in 2015, having averaged $93.1 in 2014, $98.0 in 2013 and $94.1 in Brent oil traded in a similar way, opening the month at $36.0/bbl, and closing March at $39.6/bbl. The gap between the WTI and Brent benchmark oil prices therefore declined in March to just over $1/bbl. The WTI-Brent spread averaged $5.8/bbl during 2014, having been well over $20/bbl at times since Factors which strengthened WTI and Brent oil prices in March: Nine OPEC and three non-opec members agree to meet in April Nine OPEC countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, Indonesia, Ecuador and Qatar) as well as three non-opec countries (Russia, Oman and Bahrain) have officially confirmed their attendance for a joint OPEC/non-OPEC meeting on April 17 in Doha. The meeting has been called to agree a production freeze at January levels and further measures to support oil prices. A production freeze would still require the market to rebalance naturally, but it would significantly reduce the risk that Saudi and its closest allies dump crude onto the market in 2016, as they did in A possible sticking point is whether Iran will be required participate in order for other countries to proceed with the freeze, or whether they would be permitted to continue to raise their production post the lifting of sanctions. Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 2

3 Bullish IEA report The IEA published a noticeably more bullish monthly Oil Market Report in early March. The Agency kept its global oil demand growth estimate flat for 2016 (at 1.2m b/day) despite increasing market concerns about potential global slowdown. It also increased its expectation for non-opec supply declines for 2016 by 0.1m b/day to 0.75m b/day. Last month the IEA described the oil market as "False Dawn"; this month it is "Light At The End Of The Tunnel". Falling US oil production US onshore oil production continued to decline in January 2016, falling by 28,000 b/day versus December 2015 (this decline rate was lower than the rate recorded in December of 155,000 b/day). We note that weekly data for US oil production (through to the end of March) shows declines of around 200,000 b/day since the start of We find that the weekly data is less reliable than the monthly data, but it is more timely and often gives a good indication of where the monthly data will ultimately arrive. We expect US oil production to decline throughout 2016 if oil prices remain at these levels. US oil drilling rig count falls further The Baker Hughes oil directed rig count continued to roll over during the month, falling from 400 at the end of February to 372 at the end of March. The rate of decline slowed in March, although a total of 28 rigs (7% of total) were dropped in the month. The oil directed rig count is now at its lowest level since Factors which weakened WTI and Brent oil prices in March: Iranian oil exports resuming Sanctions over Iranian oil exports were officially lifted on January 16 after the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Tehran had fulfilled its obligations under 2015 s nuclear accord. According to Bloomberg s provisional supply survey for March, Iranian production has now risen to 3.2m b/day, up by 0.4m b/day versus the December level of 2.8m b/day. We expect Iranian production to rise by around 0.5m b/day in total, this year. Movements in OECD inventories indicate oversupply OECD total product and crude inventories at the end of February (latest data point available) were reported as being down by 6m barrels versus the previous month. This compares to an historic 10 year average decline in inventories in February of 23m barrels. The three month rolling average for changes to inventories indicates continued oversupply of around 1.1m b/day, and all this leaves inventories considerably above the top of the 10 year historic range. Speculative and investment flows The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) net non-commercial crude oil futures open position (WTI) increased in March, ending the month at 308,000 contracts long versus 206,000 contracts long at the end of February. The current net long position is significantly down from its peak of 460,000 contracts in June The net short position reduced sharply from 327,000 contracts to 220,000 contracts. Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 3

4 Figure 2: NYMEX Non-commercial net and short futures contracts: WTI January 2004 March NYMEX futures ('000 contracts) WTI Oil price ($) NYMEX futures ('000 contracts) WTI Oil price ($) -100 Jan- 04 Jan- 05 Jan- 06 Jan- 07 Jan- 08 Dec- 08 Dec- 09 Dec- 10 Net NYMEX non-commercial futures Dec- 11 Dec- 12 Dec- 13 Dec- Dec Oil price (WTI) Jan- 04 Jan- 05 Jan- 06 Jan- 07 Source: Bloomberg LP/NYMEX/ICE (2016) Jan- 08 Dec- 08 Dec- 09 Dec- 10 Dec- 11 NYMEX non-commercial futures - shorts Dec- 12 Dec- 13 Dec- Dec Oil price (WTI) 0.0 OECD stocks OECD total product and crude inventories at the end of February (the latest data point available) were estimated by the IEA to be 3,027m barrels, down by 6m barrels versus the previous month. The decrease compares to an average 23 million barrel decline that has been witnessed over the last ten years. The three month rolling average for changes to inventories indicates continued oversupply of around 1.1m b/day, and all this leaves inventories considerably above the top of the 10 year historic range. Figure 3: OECD total product and crude inventories, monthly, 2004 to 2016 OECD stocks (m barrels) 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 ii) Natural gas market spread Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: IEA Oil Market Reports (March 2016 and older) The US natural gas price (Henry Hub front month) opened March at $1.71 per Mcf (1,000 cubic feet). The price remained depressed for the first half of the month before rising steadily to close at $1.96 on March 31. The spot gas price averaged $2.61/mcf in 2015, which compares to an average gas price in 2014 of $4.26 (assisted by a very cold 2013/14 US winter). The price averaged $3.72 over the preceding four years ( ). The 12-month gas strip price (a simple average of settlement prices for the next 12 months futures prices) traded in a similar fashion, starting the month at $2.16 and ending at $2.44. The strip price averaged $2.86 in 2015, having averaged $4.18 in 2014, $3.92 in 2013, $3.28 in 2012, $4.35 in 2011, $4.86 in 2010 and $5.25 in Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 4

5 Heating degree days The Guinness Global Energy Report April 2016 Figure 4: Henry Hub Gas spot price and 12m strip ($/Mcf) September to March $ 3 2 Henry Hub Henry Hub 12 m strip 1 Sep '14 Dec '14 Mar '15 Jun '15 Sep '15 Dec '15 Mar '16 Source: Bloomberg LP Factors which weakened the US gas price in March included: Warm winter persists While March weather was more in line with seasonal averages, the winter of 2015/2016 will be remembered as being exceptionally warm. The weather has been colder than normal in only two of the last 26 weeks while February ended up being 13% warmer than normal. The effect has been nationwide with every census division across the US witnessing warmer than normal weather conditions since October HDD 'Normal' HDD "2016 HDD" Week number High level of gas in inventories Withdrawals from inventories in the US were lower average in March, due to the warm weather, leaving the total level of gas left in storage remains well above the five year average. Factors which strengthened the US gas price in March included: Structurally undersupplied market Adjusting for the impact of weather in March, the most recent injections of gas into storage suggest the market is, on average, about 2 Bcf/day undersupplied (as indicated by the yellow dots on the graph below). Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 5

6 The gas market shifted into structural undersupply in November 2015, but this was trumped in the early part of winter by warmer weather, causing natural gas inventory levels to expand rapidly. Working gas in storage (Bcf) Onshore gas production up only slightly in January The EIA reported that January US onshore natural gas production (the latest data point available) was up by 0.2 Bcf/day versus the previous month at 77.9 Bcf/day. Year-on-year onshore production is now running at an increase of 1.2 Bcf/day, having been as high as 8 Bcf/day growth at the end of Figure 5: Weather adjusted US natural gas inventory injections and withdrawals 200 Gas storgae withdrawal / injection All data to Oct 2014 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Poly. (All data to Oct 2014) Natural gas inventories Data points below the line indicate Undersupply -350 Heating Degree Days minus Cooling Degree Days Data points above the line indicate Oversupply Swings in the supply/demand balance for US natural gas should, in theory, show up in movements in gas storage data. Natural gas inventories at the end of March were reported by the EIA to be 2,468 Bcf. The month on month draw was less than average (due to warm weather), leaving inventories above the top of the five year range. Figure 6: Deviation from 5yr gas storage norm vs gas price 12 month strip (H. Hub $/Mcf) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Maximum storage capacity 4,000 to 4,300 Bcf Week number (1st Jan = 1) Source: Bloomberg; EIA (March 2016) 5 year spread year av Gas in storage in 2015 started at roughly average levels and stayed that way for the first half of the year, as a combination of rising Marcellus production, slowing associated gas production (a by-product of shale oil production) and increase in coal to gas switching by electric utility companies, worked to keep the market in balance. Over the last few months of 2015, gas in storage expanded at a faster than average rate, as an extremely mild autumn and early winter dampened heating demand. This leaves storage levels in the first Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

7 quarter of 2016 at above average levels: assuming more normal weather, we expect this overhang to be worked off during the next few months. Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 7

8 2. MANAGER S COMMENTS Rebalancing the oil market What will it take to turn the current oversupply around and bring world oil inventories back to normal levels? We have recent various commentaries on this topic in recent months. Here, we provide a latest overview of the rebalancing equation. Why the over supply? US shale/fracking is the main cause of global oversupply. US onshore oil production peaked in November 1970 at just over 10 m b/day. Production declined steadily until September 2005 when it hit 2.9m b/day. Since then, US onshore oil production rose to a new high of 7.7m b/day in April This increase is due to the fracking of shale oil. There are a lot of moving parts to the oil supply and demand equation, but if you distill everything down, this increase in US onshore oil production led to the global imbalance. Saudi Arabia is cited as the prime mover in the collapse of the price of oil, as they announced in November 2014 that they were not going to cut production to defend the price. This may have been the catalyst to the decline, but the fundamental issue of oversupply was already in place. Getting production and demand back in balance As stated, world oil demand is growing at an annual rate of 1.2 million barrels per day, or a 100,000 barrels per day increase in demand per month. World oil inventories grew by 700,000 barrels per day in All things being equal, meaning no changes in global production, the oversupply would be eliminated in seven months as a result of demand growing. Not surprisingly, all things aren t equal. The oil price decline is causing a sharp decrease in US onshore oil production. We estimate a monthly decline rate of 80,000 barrels per day, or an annual decline rate of about 1 million barrels of oil per day. What about other oil producing countries? Following the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran in 2015 the Iranian oil supply has been increasing and we believe will result in a net increase of 500,000 barrels of oil per day in increased production. We expect Iraq, which increased production in 2015, to have no growth in production in Libya is a bit of a wild card, as political strife has kept production below capacity. We believe Libya has the potential to increase production by about 400,000 barrels per day. As for the rest of the world, we assume OPEC and the rest of the world (non-opec ex US) has no change in production, which is reasonable assuming OPEC is producing at near capacity. The non-opec ex US region may actually see a decline in production in 2016 as many older fields, e.g., the North Sea, are in long term decline. Adding it all up The annual rate of oversupply is 700,000 b/day (i.e., how much inventories have grown, on average) Demand is growing at a monthly rate of 100,000 b/day. US oil supply is declining at a monthly rate of 80,000 b/day. Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 8

9 Removing 180,000 b/day every month from the oversupply, means the imbalance will continue for approximately four months. Assuming that Iran increases production by an annual rate of 500,000 b/day, the 180,000 b/day oversupply would last for about an additional three months. If Libya were to reach its potential it would mean an additional 400,000 b/day which adds an additional three months or so to the imbalance. Source: Guinness Asset Management The storage question What about the three billion barrels in storage? As it turns out, three billion barrels in storage is not an excessive level of storage, at least when measured against the long term average of 2.7 billion barrels. It will take some time to normalize this surplus, but, historically the peak in inventories has coincided with the trough in oil prices. US shale and the fracking response to higher prices It is safe to assume that any oil price recovery will lead to increased oil production. For non-shale production, the lead times are measured in years. Shale wells are much quicker from drilling to production, and these wells tend to experience very high initial production declines and tend to be largely exhausted in a couple of years. Additionally, there are some logistics around the process including financing, permits, hiring workers, etc. Typically, changes in production lag changes in the rig count by about six months. When the rig count began declining in late 2014, it took over six months for there to be any impact on production. Our view is that as the oil price recovers, it will take six to 12 months for the US shale industry to begin to meaningfully increase production. A leading shale oil developer recently highlighted that it would take eighteen months for the US oil industry to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day, even allowing for a $65 per barrel oil price. Saudi Arabia It can reasonably be asked why Saudi Arabia doesn t solve the oil imbalance by simply reducing their own production by, say, 10%. Such a move seems to be in their best interest, as the price of oil would move up more than 10% and they could significantly increase their total revenues by selling less. We believe the main reason Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 9

10 they don t cut production is that they worry that such a move will be ineffectual, as US shale production will simply fill the gap over time. Further, their strategy likely is meant to send a very strong message to the US shale industry that unbridled growth won t be tolerated. US oil producers cannot act in concert, but oil entrepreneurs and those that finance them will likely be more cautious going forward and that would mean that Saudi Arabia will partially achieve their goal of getting a stronger handle on the supply. And whilst Saudi is not prepared to cut production unilaterally, the announcement of a provisional freeze to supply, made in February 2016, signals that even they have limited appetite for an oil price sub $40/bbl. Summary We expect the oil price to recover once the imbalance is eliminated. Depending upon the factors discussed here, we expect that the oil supply to be balanced sometime before the end of the year. Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 10

11 3. PERFORMANCE The main index of oil and gas equities, the MSCI World Energy Index, was up 8.8% in March, while the MSCI World Index was up by 6.9%. The Fund was up by 13.3% (class E) in the month, outperforming the MSCI World Energy Index by 4.5% (all in US dollar terms). Within the Fund, March s strongest performers were Bankers, Carrizo, QEP, Helix and Unit, while the weakest performers were Occidental, Soco, Sunpower, Trina Solar and JA Solar. Performance (in USD) 31/03/2016 Annualised % returns 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 1999 to date Guinness Global Energy MSCI World Energy Index Calendar year % returns Guinness Global Energy MSCI World Energy Index Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, gross income reinvested, in US dollars Calculation by Guinness Asset Management Limited, simulated past performance prior to , launch date of Guinness Global Energy Fund. The Guinness Global Energy investment team has been running global energy funds in accordance with the same methodology continuously since November These returns are calculated using a composite of the Investec GSF Global Energy Fund class A to (managed by the Guinness team until this date); the Guinness Atkinson Global Energy Fund (sister US mutual fund) from to (launch date of this Fund), the Guinness Global Energy Fund class A (1.00% AMC) from launch to , and class E (0.75% AMC) thereafter. Performance would be lower if an initial charge and/or redemption fee were included. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future performance. The value of this investment and any income arising from it can fall as well as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuations as well as other factors. You may lose money in this investment. Returns stated above are in US dollars; returns in other currencies may be higher or lower as a result of currency fluctuations. Investors may be subject to tax on distributions. The Fund s Prospectus gives a full explanation of the characteristics of the Fund and is available at Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 11

12 4. PORTFOLIO Buys/Sells In March we made no stock switches. Sector Breakdown The following table shows the asset allocation of the Fund at March We have also shown the asset allocation of the Guinness Atkinson Global Energy Fund (our US global energy fund which was started in 2004 and is managed in tandem with the ) at year-end 2007 for comparative purposes: 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Mar Change YTD (%) 2007* Oil & Gas Integrated Integrated Can & Em Mkts Exploration & production Drilling Equipment & services Refining and marketing Solar Coal & consumables Construction & engineering Cash Total *Guinness Atkinson Global Energy Fund Source: Guinness Asset Management Basis: Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) The Fund at March was on a price to earnings ratio (P/E) for 2015 of 16.1x versus the S&P 500 Index at 18.4x as set out in the table. (Based on S&P 500 operating earnings per share estimates of $83.8 for 2010, $96.4 for 2011, $96.8 for 2012, $107.3 for 2013, $113.0 for 2014, $100.4 for 2015 and $118.2 for 2016). This is shown in the following table: P/E S&P 500 P/E Premium (+) / Discount (-) -69% -66% -65% -58% -54% -15% 66% Average oil price (WTI $) $79.5/bbl $95/bbl $94/bbl $98/bbl $93/bbl $49/bbl Source: Standard and Poor s; Guinness Asset Management Ltd Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 12

13 Portfolio holdings Our integrated and similar stock exposure (c.45%) is comprised of a mix of mid cap, mid/large cap and large cap stocks. Our five large caps are Exxon, Chevron, BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Total. Mid/large and mid-caps are ENI, Statoil, Hess and OMV. At March the median P/E ratios of this group were 17.7x/31.8x 2015/2016 earnings. We also have two Canadian integrated holdings, Suncor and Imperial Oil. Both companies have significant exposure to oil sands in addition to downstream assets. Our exploration and production holdings (c.34%) give us exposure most directly to rising oil and natural gas prices. We include in this category non-integrated oil sands companies, as this is the GICS approach. The stock here with oil sands exposure is Canadian Natural Resources. The pure E&P stocks have a bias towards the US (Newfield, Devon, Carrizo, Southwestern and QEP Resources), with four other names (Apache, Occidental, Noble, CNOOC and SOCO) having significant international production and two (Enquest and Bankers Petroleum) which are North Sea and European focused respectively. One of the key metrics behind a number of the E&P stocks held is low enterprise value / proven reserves. Almost all of the US E&P stocks held also provide exposure to North American natural gas and include two of the industry leaders (Southwestern and Devon). We have exposure to four (pure) emerging market stocks in the main portfolio, though one is a half-position. Two are classified as integrateds (Gazprom and PetroChina) and two as E&P companies (CNOOC and SOCO International). Gazprom is the Russian national oil and gas company which produces approximately a quarter of the European Union gas demand and trades on 2.9x 2016 earnings. PetroChina is one of the world s largest integrated oil and gas companies and has significant growth potential and, alongside CNOOC, enjoys advantages as a Chinese national champion. SOCO International is an E&P company with production in Vietnam. We have useful exposure to oil service stocks, which comprise just under 10% of the portfolio. The stocks we own are split between those which focus their activities in North America (land driller Unit Corp) and those which operate in the US and internationally (Helix, Halliburton and Schlumberger). Our independent refining exposure is currently in the US in Valero, the largest of the US refiners. Valero has a reasonably large presence on the US Gulf Coast and is benefitting from the rise in US exports of refined products seen in recent times. Our alternative energy exposure is currently two positions of the fund split equally between across three companies: JA Solar, Trina Solar and Sunpower. JA Solar and Trina are both Chinese solar cell and module manufacturers, whilst Sunpower is a more diversified US solar developer. We see them as well placed to benefit from the expansion in the solar market we expect to continue for a number of years. Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 13

14 Portfolio at February 29 th 2016 (for compliance reasons disclosed one month in arrears) 29 February 2016 Stock ID_ISIN Curr. Country % of NAV B'berg B'berg B'berg B'berg B'berg B'berg B'berg B'berg B'berg mean PER mean PER mean PER mean PER mean PER mean PER mean PER mean PER mean PER B'berg mean PER Integrated Oil & Gas Exxon Mobil Corp US30231G1022 USD US Chevron US USD US Royal Dutch Shell PLC GB00B03MLX29 EUR NL BP PLC GB GBP GB Total SA FR EUR FR ENI SpA IT EUR IT Statoil ASA NO NOK NO Hess Corp US42809H1077 USD US nm nm OMV AG AT EUR AT Integrated / Oil & Gas E&P - Canada Suncor Energy Inc CA CAD CA Canadian Natural Resources Ltd CA CAD CA nm Imperial Oil CA CAD CA Integrated Oil & Gas - Emerging market PetroChina Co Ltd CNE W8 HKD HK Gazprom OAO US USD RU 3.61 nm nm Oil & Gas E&P Occidental Petroleum Corp US USD US nm Apache Corp US USD US nm nm Devon Energy Corp US25179M1036 USD US nm Noble Energy Inc US USD US nm QEP Resources Inc US74733V1008 USD US 1.26 nm nm nm nm nm Newfield Exploration Co US USD US nm Southwestern Energy Co US USD US nm Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc US USD US International E&Ps CNOOC Ltd HK HKD HK Bankers Petroleum Ltd CA CAD CA 0.83 nm nm nm Tullow Oil PLC GB GBP GB nm nm 70.0 Soco International PLC GB00B572ZV91 GBP GB nm nm 7.14 Drilling Unit Corp US USD US nm nm 0.65 Equipment & Services Halliburton Co US USD US Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc US42330P1075 USD US nm Schlumberger Ltd AN USD US Solar Trina Solar Ltd US89628E1047 USD US nm nm JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd US USD US nm 1.2 nm nm nm Sunpower Corp US USD US Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Valero Energy Corp US91913Y1001 USD US nm Research Portfolio Cluff Natural Resources PLC GB00B6SYKF01 GBP GB 0.16 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm EnQuest PLC GB00B635TG28 GBP GB 0.33 nm nm nm nm JKX Oil & Gas PLC GB GBP GB nm nm Ophir Energy PLC GB00B24CT194 GBP GB 0.06 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 3.4 nm nm Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Co Ltd CNE N1 HKD HK nm nm nm nm nm Sino Gas & Energy Holdings Ltd AU000000SEH2 AUD AU 0.09 nm nm nm nm nm 39.7 nm 39.7 nm 13.2 WesternZagros Resources Ltd CA CAD CA 0.02 nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 0.98 Cash 2.01 Total 100 PER Med. PER Ex-gas PER The Fund s portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time; no recommendation is made for the purchase or sale of any particular stock. Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 14

15 5. OUTLOOK i) Oil market The table below illustrates the difference between the growth in world oil demand and non-opec supply over the last 11 years, together with the IEA forecasts for 2015 and E World Demand IEA Non-OPEC supply (includes Angola, Ecuador and Indonesia for periods when each country was outside OPEC 1 ) Angola supply adjustment Ecuador supply adjustment Indonesia supply adjustment Non-OPEC supply (ex. Angola/Ecuador and inc. Indonesia for all periods) OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC supply plus OPEC NGLs (ex. Angola/Ecuador and inc. Indonesia for all periods) Call on OPEC Iraq supply adjustment Call on OPEC Angola joined OPEC at the start of 2007, Ecuador rejoined OPEC at the end of 2007 (having previously been a member in the 1980s) 2 Indonesia left OPEC as of the start of 2009; rejoined at start of Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi, U.A.E. Venezuela 4 Iraq has no offical quota 5 Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi, U.A.E. Venezuela Source: : IEA oil market reports; : March 2016 Oil market Report Global oil demand in 2015 was 7.6m b/day up on the pre-recession (2007) peak. This means the combined effect of the 2007/08 oil price spike and the 2008/09 recession was small and was shrugged off remarkably quickly. The IEA forecast a rise of 1.2m b/day in 2016, which would take oil demand to an all-time high of 95.8m b/day. OPEC In December 2011, OPEC-12 introduced a group-wide target of 30m b/day without specifying individual country quotas. The 30m b/day figure included 2.7m b/day for Iraq, so the target for OPEC-11 (excluding Iraq) was 27.3m b/day. At the date of the announcement, and in the period since, OPEC s production has been complicated by numerous issues: notably (1) erratic production from Libya, affected by the ongoing civil war; (2) depressed production in Iran due to western sanctions over its nuclear programme; (3) real difficulty in forecasting how Iraq might develop. In response to lower Libyan and Iranian production, and to cope with rising global oil Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 15

16 31/01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/2016 Million barrels per day The Guinness Global Energy Report April 2016 demand, the three key swing producers within OPEC (Saudi, Kuwait and UAE) have each raised their production significantly, as the following table shows: ('000 b/day) 31-Dec Nov Mar-16 Change vs Dec 2010 Change vs Nov 2014 Saudi 8,250 9,650 10,190 1, Iran 3,700 2,780 3, Iraq 2,385 3,370 4,350 1, UAE 2,310 2,800 2, Kuwait 2,300 2,790 3, Nigeria 2,220 1,970 1, Venezuela 2,190 2,470 2, Angola 1,700 1,640 1, Libya 1, , Algeria 1,260 1,100 1, Indonesia Qatar Ecuador OPEC-13 30,112 31,147 33,090 2,978 1,943 Source: Bloomberg, DOE The effect from 2011 to the middle of 2014 was OPEC-12 (ex Indonesia) producing at around 30m b/day, plus or minus 1m b/day, in an attempt to keep the global oil market in balance. Since the second half of 2014, we have moved into a period where the global oil balance has become looser, driven principally by surging non-opec supply (+2.4m b/day in 2014 and +1.3m b/day in 2015). The effect of $100+ oil, enjoyed for most of the period, emerged in the form of an acceleration in US shale oil production and a slowdown in declines in other non-opec regions. And as a result, we estimate that the call on OPEC-11 for 2015 has been reduced to 25.7m b/day, around 1.7m b/day lower than December 2015 production of 27.4m b/day (according to the IEA). In the graph below we show how the call on OPEC-11 has evolved since 2000: Figure 7: OPEC-11 apparent production vs call on OPEC IEA February 2016 production = 27.7m b/day OPEC-11* production Call on OPEC-11 Call on OPEC-11 in 2016 IEA 2015 call estimate Call on OPEC-11 in 2016 = 26.8m b/day 20 Source: IEA Oil Market Report (March 2016 and prior); Guinness estimates Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 16

17 OPEC-12 met in November 2014, with the growing looseness in the physical market and a falling oil price (in the mid $70s at the time of the meeting) prompting anticipation that OPEC would either reduce their overall quota or announce a firm commitment to comply with the 30m b/day target. In the event there was no quota cut, and a confirmation that the 30m b/day target would be maintained. This marked a significant change in OPEC strategy to one that prioritised market share over price. In the meantime, Saudi and other OPEC members continue to act rationally in their response to a depressed oil price, realising that an emergency production cut would be a fools errand as they would simply encourage a sharp recovery in non-opec growth. It makes more sense for them to continue to tolerate a lower oil price for now, resulting in diminished prospects for oil production outside OPEC when the price starts to rise again. Longer term, we believe that Saudi seek a good oil price, well in excess of current levels to balance their fiscal needs, but they realise that patience is required to achieve that goal. Saudi went through a similar experience in the first half of the 1980s, trying to maintain price at the expense of volume as non-opec supply grew, causing them to reduce their production from 9.6m b/day in 1979 to 3.4m b/day in Eventually the strategy failed and Saudi shifted to an alternative plan of boosting supply and allowing oil prices to fall, slowing non-opec supply growth and invigorating demand. This time Saudi are shortcutting the problem, acting sooner rather than later to choke off non-opec supply. Overall, we reiterate two important criteria for Saudi: 1. Saudi is interested in the average price of oil that they get, they have a longer investment horizon than most other market participants 2. Saudi wants to maintain a balance between global oil supply and demand to maintain a price that is acceptable to both producers and consumers Saudi s decision not to shoulder an OPEC production cut for the timebeing is consistent with both of those objectives. The most recent OPEC meeting was held in December 2015 with concluding remarks that were somewhat ambiguous but implied their production quota would remain unchanged, and that the group was content to keep production at the current elevated levels. The meeting confirmed Indonesia s re-entry to OPEC, having left the group in 2008, but nothing was said explicitly about Indonesia s quota. In their concluding remarks, OPEC made the following statement: Having reviewed the oil market outlook for 2015, and the projections for 2016, the Conference observed that global economic growth is currently at 3.1% in 2015 and is forecast to expand by 3.4% next year. In terms of supply and demand, it was noted that non-opec supply is expected to contract in 2016, while global demand is anticipated to expand again by 1.3 mb/d.in view of the aforementioned, and emphasizing its commitment to ensuring a long-term stable and balanced oil market for both producers and consumers, the Conference agreed that Member Countries should continue to closely monitor developments in the coming months. As an important aside, we also point to the complicated production picture within OPEC, illustrated here by an estimation of the amount of over/under production versus each country s implied quota: Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 17

18 OPEC-11: over/under production vs implied quota (000s b/day) Saudi Kuwait UAE Ecuador Angola Algeria Qatar Venezuela Nigeria Iran Libya Under production Over production -1,750-1,500-1,250-1, ,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 Source: IEA; Guinness estimates (March 2016) Saudi, Kuwait and UAE are over-producing versus their implied quota by around 2.5m b/day, whilst Iran and Libya, but also Nigeria and Venezuela, are under-producing. Unified action by OPEC has been made difficult by the current position, with the under-producing nations reluctant to contribute. All of that said, nothing in the market has changed our view that OPEC have the ability to put a floor under the price as they did in 2008, 2006, 2001 and 1998 should they choose. Supply looking forward The non-opec world has, since the 2008 financial crisis, grown its production more meaningfully than in the six years before The growth was 0.2% p.a. from , increasing to 2.3% p.a. from Growth in the non-opec region over the last 5 years has been dominated by the successful development of shale oil and oil sands in North America (up around 4m b/day since 2010), implying that the rest of non-opec region has grown by only around 0.5m b/day over the period, despite the sustained high oil price until mid After the strongest year for non-opec production in 2014 (+2.4m b/day) since 1978, non-opec growth in 2015 was also strong, at 1.4m b/day. Whilst sub $60 oil environment has caused significant deferral and cancellation of new developments, start-up projects that were sanctioned before the fall in the oil price are still coming to completion, creating this resilience in production. However, the effect of sub $60 oil starts to impact more in 2016 when non-opec supply is expected to fall by around 0.8m b/day. Looking further ahead to how global oil supply may evolve in the current oil price environment, we must consider in particular increases in supply from three regions: North America, Iraq and Iran. The growth in US shale oil production, in particular from the Bakken, Permian and Eagleford basins, raises the question of how much more there is to come. New oil production from these sources amounts peaked in April 2015 at around 4m b/day and is now in decline. Our assessment is that US shale oil is a high cost source of oil but one where growth is viable, on average, at $60-70 oil prices. In total, it could be comparable in size to the UK North Sea, i.e. it could grow by around a further 3m b/day over the next five years, but only if the price is sufficiently high to incentivise growth. The rate of development is heavily dependent on the cashflow available Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 18

19 to producing companies, which tends to be recycled immediately into new wells. Naturally, cashflows available for reinvestment in a sub $50 world are far lower than in a $100+ world, so initially slowed the growth rate, then sent production into month on month decline. Indeed, we note that year-over-year production at the end of 2015 was negative and that the rate of decline will continue into As for Iraq, the questions of how big an increase is likely, in what timescale, and how other OPEC members react are all important issues. Iraqi production was running at 4.2m b/day in February 2016 (according to the IEA), up from 3.7m b/day at the start of However, unrest in the country, strained government finances and a likely slowdown in investment from foreign partners does not fill us with confidence that significant growth beyond here can easily be achieved. Iranian oil production increases have been on the agenda for some time now, although the process of approval and sanction lifting has been slower than many expected. With most sanctions now lifted, we expect an increase in supply of around 500k b/day during Iran has a target of ultimately producing 5m b/day (vs current production of 2.9m b/day); while it has the resources to do so, it would need a new hydrocarbon fiscal regime and maybe $50bn of investment from international oil companies unlikely in the near term in our opinion. Other opportunities to exploit unconventional oil likely exist internationally, notably in Argentina (Vaca Muerta), Russia (Bazhenov), China (Tarim and Sichuan) and Australia (Cooper). However, the US is far better understood geologically; the infrastructure in the US is already in place; service capacity in the US is high; and the interests of the landowner are aligned in the US with the E&P company. In most of the rest of the world, the reverse of each of these points is true, and as a result we see international shale being 5-10 years behind North America. Demand looking forward The IEA expect that demand grew in 2015 by around 1.8m b/day, then see 2016 demand growth of 1.2m b/day. The 2016 forecast ties in with the IMF forecast for global GDP growth of 3.6% (which has since been reduced to 3.4%, implying that the IEA s demand forecast might come down somewhat). We see it as logical that demand growth in 2016 will be lower than 2015, since 2015 enjoyed various one-off boosts to demand as a result of the lower price. That said, growth of around 1m b/day in 2016 would still represent close to average demand growth when compared to the last 5 years. The IEA s global demand growth forecast for 2016 comprises an increase in non-oecd demand of just over 1.2m b/day and 0.1m b/day decline in OECD demand. The components of this non-oecd demand growth can be summarised as follows: Figure 8: Non-OECD oil demand m b/d Demand e 2015e 2016e Asia M. East Lat. Am FSU Africa Europe Source: IEA Oil Market Report (March 2016) Growth As can be seen, Asia has settled down into a steady pattern of growth since In 2015 and 2016, the lion s share of growth comes from Asia, with the rest of non-oecd demand being dampened by the FSU s consumption going into reverse. Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 19

20 OECD demand in 2016 is forecast to be down just under 0.1m b/day, with all regions basically flat. The IEA have consistently revised demand expectations higher in 2015, and we continue to think that they may be being conservative in their outlook, particularly in North America, as long as current GDP forecasts hold up. The trajectory of global oil demand over the next few years will be a function of global GDP, pace of the consumerisation of developing economies, and price. At current prices, the world oil bill as a percentage of GDP is around 1-1.5%, the lowest level since 1998/99, and a likely stimulant of strong multi-year demand growth. If oil prices return to a higher range (say $75-100/bbl, representing 3-4% of GDP), we probably return to the pattern established over the past 5 years, with a flat to shallow decline picture in the OECD more than offset by strong growth in the non-oecd area. The small decline in the OECD reflects improving oil efficiency over time, though this effect will be dampened by economic, population and vehicle growth. Within the non-oecd, population growth and rising oil use per capita will both play a significant part. Overall, we would not be surprised to see average annual non-oecd demand growth of around 1.5m b/day to the end of the decade. This would represent a growth rate of 3% p.a., no greater than the growth rate over the last 15 years (3.2% p.a.). We keep a close eye on developments in the new energy vehicle fleet (electric vehicles; hybrids etc), but see nothing that makes a significant dent on the consumption of gasoline and diesel in the next few years. Sales of electric vehicles (pure electric and plug-in hybrid electrics) globally were around 0.4m in 2015, up from 0.3m in Sales of 0.4m electric vehicles represents around 0.4% of total light vehicle sales, and increases EVs share of the world car fleet to 0.1%. We expect to see EV sales accelerate in 2016 to around 0.6m, or 0.6% of total global sales. Even applying an aggressive growth rate to EV sales, we see EVs comprising less than 1% of the global car fleet in Conclusions about oil The table below summarises our view by showing our oil price forecasts for WTI and Brent in 2015 against their historic levels, and rises in percentage terms that we have seen in the period from 2002 to Figure 9: Average WTI & Brent yearly prices, and changes Oil price (inflation adjusted) Est 12 month MAV WTI Brent Brent/WTI (12m MAV) Brent/WTI y-on-y change (%) 8% 12% 30% 37% 15% 9% 26% -35% 24% 27% -4% 0% -7% -47% -21% Brent/WTI (5yr MAV) We expect oil to trade in a $30-50 range in the near term. This is an unsupported level which may fluctuate significantly. If this price range persists, we expect North American unconventional supply declines to continue. This points to a rise in oil prices over the year. In 2016/17 the likelihood is that the price will fluctuate quite widely but move on an upwards trajectory as accelerating emerging country demand growth and US shale oil growth flattening slowly tightens the global oil supply/ demand balance. The world oil bill at around $50 per barrel would represent 2% of 2015 Global GDP, 42% under the average of the period (3.4%). A return to oil representing 3.4% of GDP implies an oil price of around $85/barrel. We believe that Saudi s long-term objective remains to maintain a good oil price, significantly higher than current levels. Guinness Asset Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. 20