Dividend Focus Equity
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- Marian Fleming
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1 Quarterly Commentary Third Quarter 2018 Performance Summary For the quarter ended September 30, 2018, the Dividend Focus Equity Composite underperformed its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Value Index, returning 5.40% gross of fees and 5.20% net of fees. This compares with a return of 5.70% for the Russell 1000 Value Index during the same period. Performance Summary as of September 30, 2018¹ 3Q18 YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Dividend Focus Equity Composite Gross 5.40% Net 5.20% 2.84% 2.27% 10.56% 9.73% 14.21% 13.36% 10.89% 10.06% 9.80% 8.98% Russell 1000 Value Index 5.70% 3.92% 9.45% 13.55% 10.72% 9.79% 1 Data as of September, Source: Advent Portfolio Exchange (APX). Performance returns are presented gross and net of fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross of fee performance returns do not reflect the payment of investment advisory fees and other expenses. Actual returns will be reduced by advisory fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Net of fee performance was calculated using the highest management fee of 0.90%, representing the maximum advisory fees charged to client accounts invested in the Dividend Focus Equity Composite during the respective period. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For information regarding the current investment advisory fees of PNC Capital Advisors, LLC, please refer to Form ADV, Part 2A, which is available at: Please refer to our GIPS -compliant Presentation, which includes additional important disclosures and is located at the end of this commentary. Summary The Dividend Focus Equity Composite underperformed its benchmark in a quarter that saw growth continue its market leadership, with the Russell 1000 Growth Index returning 9.17% versus the Russell 1000 Value Index return of 5.70%. During the second quarter 2018 earnings season (reported during the third quarter), the Russell 1000 Value Index saw a continuation of double-digit earnings growth. Both modest dividend yield and dividend growth remained headwinds during the third quarter, which had a negative impact on relative investment results. For the Russell 1000 Value Index, securities yielding between 2% and 4% (which comprised approximately 72% of the strategy) performed essentially in-line with the benchmark. Securities yielding between 1% and 2% (approximately 13% of the strategy) outperformed the broader benchmark. This was more than offset by the negative impact from securities yielding more than 4% (approximately 12% of the strategy), which underperformed the benchmark, on average. Market Commentary U.S. equity markets ended the third quarter in positive territory, with the S&P 500 Index returning 7.71%. Second-quarter 2018 year-over-year earnings growth (reported during the third quarter) for the Index was 25%, marking the highest quarterly earnings growth period since Ten of the 11 GICS sectors saw double-digit earnings growth. Additionally, approximately 80% of the companies within the S&P 500 reported positive earnings surprises. Overall, the market seemed to demonstrate positive sentiment throughout the quarter, although it was partially muted by some macro concerns. Similar to the first half of the year, further monetary policy normalization by the Federal Reserve supported a stronger dollar and rising interest rates. Additionally, increasing input costs for energy and industrial metals continued to impact the global supply chain, which has weighed on stock prices in some sectors. Earlier in the year, fear of a global trade war dominated the market consciousness. Some of this concern seemed to abate during the third quarter, as the adoption of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement during the quarter signaled to investors that the U.S. administration intends to reach trade deals with other countries, rather than pursue a more isolationist strategy. While some worry has been relieved, concerns about trade between the U.S. and the rest of the world, namely China, and the effects that retaliatory tariff actions could have are still top of mind for many investors. Additionally, there has been increased concern surrounding the sell-off in emerging market currencies amid rising U.S. interest rates and a strengthening dollar. Despite the current macro backdrop, we remain confident that earnings will continue to drive stock prices over the long term and that our process can identify the companies with the greatest prospects to increase earnings. We believe the earnings growth outlook for the remainder of 2018 and into 2019 remains strong.
2 Quantitative Overview During the third quarter, we experienced a market environment that was unfavorable to our investment process. Our multi-factor model and all of its underlying components (quality, momentum, and valuation factors) lacked effectiveness during this period. In particular, our value factors have been underperforming for an extended period of time. More recently, quality, as defined by our proprietary stability of earnings factor, and momentum have also been under pressure. Because our process focuses on these three primary characteristics, our strategies are more likely to underperform during this kind of market environment. In our experience, what has worked in this environment are factors such as price reversal and expected growth, which typically do not outperform over the long run. We ve also seen stocks with strong price momentum, but also very high valuations (e.g., price-toforward earnings ratios in excess of 50 times), outperform recently. These factors are not aligned with our process. While our process does rely on price momentum, it does so in conjunction with earnings momentum and earnings surprises, which together form our momentum factor. When combined with our quality and valuation factors, what we re ultimately seeking are securities exhibiting strong price and earnings momentum that also have attractive valuations and high-quality characteristics. We have found that stocks exhibiting all of these factors simultaneously tend to have the highest potential to outperform over the long term. Based on our analysis, this multi-factor approach, which drives our process, tends to work better than any of the aforementioned factors individually. It bears repeating: we do not need all of our factors to be working simultaneously for our strategies to outperform. In a rare period such as this, where all of our key factors are under pressure at the same time, we are not surprised to see our process, as a Quarterly Attribution Analysis, September, Dividend Focus Equity Representative Account vs. Russell 1000 Value Index GICS Sector Large Cap Value Advantage - Dividend Focus Russell 1000 Value Variation Attribution Analysis 2 Source: Factset. The attribution presented above reflects the results of the representative account of the Dividend Focus Equity Composite. Performance attribution is an analysis of the strategy s representative account return relative to a selected benchmark and is calculated using daily holding information within Factset for the representative account. Please refer to the performance attribution disclosure located at the end of this report for additional attribution information. The sectors or industries reflected herein are subject to change and securities within a sector or industry may no longer be held in an account s portfolio. Sector and industry weights of any particular client may vary based on investment restrictions applicable to the account. It should not be assumed that investments in any of the sectors or industries listed were or will prove profitable. FactSet is a registered trade mark of FactSet Research Systems, Inc. and its affiliates. Allocation Effect Selection + Interaction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities Cash Effect
3 whole, fall out of favor. Importantly, our conviction in our process and our model remains resolute. Belief in our central tenet that earnings drive stock prices over the long term leads us to remain true to our process and model so that when our factors do return to favor, we believe investors portfolios will be poised to benefit. One-Year Attribution Analysis, September 30, Dividend Focus Equity Representative Account vs. Russell 1000 Value Index GICS Sector Large Cap Value Advantage - Dividend Focus Russell 1000 Value Variation Attribution Analysis 2 Source: Factset. The attribution presented above reflects the results of the representative account of the Dividend Focus Equity Composite. Performance attribution is an analysis of the strategy s representative account return relative to a selected benchmark and is calculated using daily holding information within Factset for the representative account. Please refer to the performance attribution disclosure located at the end of this report for additional attribution information. The sectors or industries reflected herein are subject to change and securities within a sector or industry may no longer be held in an account s portfolio. Sector and industry weights of any particular client may vary based on investment restrictions applicable to the account. It should not be assumed that investments in any of the sectors or industries listed were or will prove profitable. FactSet is a registered trade mark of FactSet Research Systems, Inc. and its affiliates. Allocation Effect Selection + Interaction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities Cash Effect During the quarter we initiated two new investment positions across sectors: Waste Management, Inc. provides waste management services in the United States and parts of Canada. We believe Waste Management will be driven by its solid returns, visible growth, and significant free cash flow generation. The company s integrated asset base allows it to be relatively defensive in an uncertain economy. The company had an above-average score in our multifactor model. Comcast Corporation is a media, entertainment, and communications company that provides video, internet, and phone services to residential and business customers. The addition of Comcast to the Dividend Focus portfolio results in an improvement in the strategy s overall multi-factor model score and an increase in dividend yield. The company scored in the top decile of the multifactor model and has solid double-digit dividend growth. During the quarter we sold two positions across sectors: Illinois Tool Works, Inc. manufactures and sells industrial products and equipment worldwide. The company had a below-average multi-factor model score and near-term factors signaled a potential earnings miss. As a result, we sold the stock as a source of funds for better-scoring securities.
4 Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. is a franchisor and operator of hotels under the Wyndham brand. We sold Wyndham primarily due to the recent GICS reclassification, which affected the Consumer Discretionary sector. As a result of the GICS reclassification, the strategy s Consumer Discretionary sector weight was above the high end of the recommended sector weight. We used the proceeds to purchase Comcast Corporation. Positioning Our multi-factor model not only defines the candidate pool for fundamental analysis and provides sell signals for current holdings, but it also determines the portfolio s sector positioning. After the multi-factor model ranks the investible universe, we construct a portfolio by equally weighting the top quintile of stocks. The resulting sector overweights and underweights relative the benchmark are used as the parameters to construct the Dividend Focus Equity portfolio. Currently, the portfolio s largest overweights are to the Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Materials sectors. The portfolio s largest underweights are to the Health Care, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, and Telecommunication Services sectors. Outlook Our investment process is focused on bottom-up, fundamental analysis guided by our multi-factor model, with particular attention paid to earnings and a company s ability to surprise to the upside. As such, our investment team does not make macro calls. The overall earnings acceleration trend that started in the third quarter of 2016 continued during the most recent quarter, with second quarter 2018 earnings growth coming in at 25.0%. For third quarter 2018, analysts consensus forecasts indicate another expected double-digit year-over-year increase in earnings growth, with a current estimate of 19.2%. Interestingly, stock prices have not kept up with the increases in earnings estimates, likely because of multiple macro pressures, including the threat from trade tariffs, rising oil prices, and a flattening yield curve. Yet equity valuations, as measured by forward price-to-earnings ratios, are above the five-year average and 10-year average, supporting our belief that multiple expansion is likely limited and that earnings growth may be a key driver of the market in the near term. We think it s important to highlight that estimated 2018 revenue growth for the S&P 500 Index of 8.1% has accelerated from consensus estimates just three months ago, potentially reflecting generally strong business conditions despite the various macro cross currents. While 2018 earnings growth benefited from a reduced corporate tax rate, 2019 S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to remain a robust 10.4%, with revenue growth of 5.3% according to current analysts projections. We also note that a return to a normal economy with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and reducing quantitative easing may cause investors to favor higher-quality companies, which we expect would benefit our investment process. However, we will closely watch the impact that rising interest rates may have on earnings revisions and growth. We will continue to focus on our process in an effort to position our portfolio in companies with improving fundamentals that can surprise on the upside in terms of earnings. Equally important, we will continue to try to avoid those companies that may disappoint on earnings. Representative Account Top Contributors and Detractors for the Quarter Ending September 30, 2018 Top Contributors Avg. Top Detractors Avg. Pfizer Inc Cisco Systems, Inc Johnson & Johnson Merck & Co., Inc JPMorgan Chase & Co Extra Space Storage Inc Synovus Financial Corp Omnicom Group Inc T. Rowe Price Group TransCanada Corporation The holdings identified above do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. is determined by averaging the daily weights of each holding in the representative account. The weight is the day s market value for each holding divided by the total value of all account holdings. is the contribution of each representative account holding determined by multiplying the for each holding by the rate of return for that holding during the quarter. The result shows each holding s contribution to the account s overall return during the quarter. Past performance does not guarantee future results. To obtain the calculation methodology, a list showing each holding s contribution to the overall performance during the measurement period, or for the complete list of all securities in the strategy that were recommended during the previous year, please contact pcacompliancegroup@pnc.com.
5 Top Contributors Pfizer Inc. develops and manufactures pharmaceutical products. The company reported solid second-quarter results. In addition, seven positive pipeline developments year-to-date have brought more clarity to the company s long-term growth rate. Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol-based networking products and services. Revenue growth for the August quarter was the highest year-over-year rate the company has experienced in more than 14 quarters, driven by positive macroeconomic trends, product cycles, and further broadening of the revenue mix. We expect this revenue surge to continue and believe there is potential for some margin expansion through fiscal Johnson & Johnson is a diversified healthcare company. The company reported solid second-quarter results against a backdrop of low expectations. It has multiple new product launches in its Medical Devices segment expected in the second half of Merck & Co., Inc. provides prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies, animal health, and consumer care products. The company announced detailed data from its Phase 3 trial of its drug Keytruda in first-line, non-small cell lung cancer that compares very favorably against competitors data, potentially cementing Keytruda s leading position in this large commercial opportunity. JP Morgan Chase & Co. is a leading financial and investment services company. During the quarter, the company reported strong earnings and management also reinforced their confidence in the company s future outlook. Additionally, its board of directors authorized a 43% dividend increase. Top Detractors Extra Space Storage Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). Rising interest rates during the quarter pressured many REITs, reflecting concerns that rising rates will result in increased competition from bonds for yield-oriented investors. Synovus Financial Corp. offers integrated financial services, including commercial and retail banking, financial management, insurance, and mortgage services. Despite reporting good earnings, the company announced the acquisition of a bank that was viewed as expensive. Prior to this deal, the company itself was viewed by some investors as an acquisition target, so as a result, the probability that Synovus is acquired has diminished. Omnicom Group Inc. is an advertising agency. The key driver of third quarter stock price performance was the company s second quarter earnings report. While earnings beat analysts consensus estimate, the domestic organic revenue growth was worse than expectations and below the first quarter growth rate. Organic revenue guidance for the full year was maintained. T. Rowe Price Group provides an array of investment products and services, including mutual funds, advisory services, separate account management, recordkeeping, and related services to individuals, advisors, and institutions. Despite strong fundamentals, the company lagged the market due to rising interest rates and concerns regarding a possible slowing economy and related pullback in the equity markets. TransCanada Corporation is an energy infrastructure company in North America. It operates through Canadian natural gas pipelines, U.S. natural gas pipelines, Mexico natural gas pipelines, liquids pipelines, and energy segments. The company s shares continue to struggle due to rising interest rates. Additionally, the company continues to deal with a hostile regulatory environment in Canada regarding new pipeline construction.
6 MANAGEMENT TEAM Douglas J. Roman, CFA, CMT Managing Director Mark W. Batty, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager Steven C. Baumgarten Portfolio Manager Paul C. Crovo Joseph J. Jordan, CFA William H. Gorman, CFA Michael D. Rocco Luyi Guo, CFA, Ph.D. Natalie Marvi-Romeo, CFA, CAIA Client Portfolio Manager Michael Coleman, CFA Maureen Callahan Senior Equity Trader Daniel Castrogiovanni Equity Portfolio Analyst King Lee Equity Portfolio Analyst
7 Firm Description: As of September 29, 2009, PNC Capital Advisors, Inc. and its affiliate Allegiant Asset Management Company each merged into and with PNC Capital Advisors, LLC ( PNC Capital Advisors or the Firm ). PNC Capital Advisors, a registered investment adviser and direct wholly owned subsidiary of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. ( PNC ), provides investment advice with respect to equity and fixed income securities for a variety of clients, including institutional accounts and registered investment companies. For Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ) purposes, PNC Capital Advisors, LLC includes: 1) Assets under management of PNC Bank, N.A. that were previously attributed to a predecessor firm, Mercantile, which prior to September 14, 2007 was defined to include the assets of Mercantile-Safe Deposit and Trust Company and its subsidiary, Mercantile Capital Advisors, Inc. Effective September 14, 2007, Mercantile-Safe Deposit and Trust Company was merged into PNC Bank, N.A., and in conjunction with such merger, PNC Capital Advisors, Inc. became a subsidiary of PNC Bank, N.A. PNC Capital Advisors, Inc. commenced serving as subadvisor to certain clients of PNC Bank, N.A. effective February 11, ) Assets under management of PNC Municipal Investment Group, formerly a part of PNC Bank, N.A., now a business unit of PNC Capital Advisors. 3) Assets under management of the Advantage Equity Portfolio Management Team, formerly a part of PNC Institutional Investment Group ( PNC IIG ), a part of PNC Bank, N.A., now a business unit of PNC Capital Advisors. 4) Wrap program assets managed by Allegiant Advisory Services, formerly a part of Allegiant Asset Management Company. 5) Assets under management of Allegiant Asset Management Company (excluding Allegiant Advisory Services), formerly a wholly owned subsidiary of National City Corporation, now an institutional subsidiary of the PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. and part of PNC Capital Advisors. PNC Capital Advisors Dividend Focus Equity Composite Composite Inception Date: May 31, 2008 Composite Creation Date: May 31, 2008 Gross of Fees Net of Fees 3 Yr Ex-Post Benchmark 3 Yr Ex-Post Number of Composite Composite Firm Std Dev Std Dev Portfolios Dispersion Assets Assets Year % % Comp % % Benchmark % (Year-end) (Std Dev %) ($ millions) ($ millions) , , , , , (0.68) (3.83) , , , , , , , , , , * * * ,190 *represents return from 6/1/2008 (date of inception) through 12/31/2008 Compliance Statement: PNC Capital Advisors, LLC claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. PNC Capital Advisors, LLC has been independently verified for the period beginning September 29, 2009 through December 31, 2016 by Ashland Partners and Company, LLP, and for the periods January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017 by ACA Performance Services, LLC. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. The Dividend Focus Equity Composite has been examined by Ashland Partners & Company LLP for the period June 1, 2008 through December 31, 2016, and for the periods January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017 by ACA Performance Services, LLC. The verification and performance examination reports are available upon request. Verification: Compliance with the GIPS standards for the predecessor firm (PNC Capital Advisors, Inc.) was verified by Ashland Partners & Company LLC for the period February 11, 2008, through September 29, Copies of the verification reports as well as policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing compliant presentations are available upon request. A list of composite descriptions is also available upon request. Composite Description: The investment objective of the Dividend Focus Equity Composite is to seek capital appreciation by investing in a diversified portfolio of large-capitalization equity securities that provide relatively high dividend yield and increasing dividend income. For comparison purposes the Dividend Focus Equity Composite is measured against the Russell 1000 Value Index. The Dividend Focus Equity Composite was created May 31, The composite was named the PNC Large Cap Value Dividend Focus Composite from June 1, 2008 through December 31, 2009 and the Large Cap Value Dividend Focus Equity Composite from January 1, 2010 to September 27, Effective September 28, 2012, the name was changed to Dividend Focus Equity to better reflect the portfolio management team s focus on identifying dividend paying stocks with the potential for growth in the income stream. Results from all accounts have been continuous from the first full month under management to present or last full month under management. Benchmark: The benchmark for the composite is the Russell 1000 Value Index. The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large-cap value segment of the U.S. equity universe. It includes companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values and is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap value segment. Minimum Account Size: All discretionary accounts in excess of $100,000 have been included in the PNC Capital Advisors Dividend Focus Equity Composite. Calculation of Results: Accounts are valued using trade date accounting and are denominated in U.S. dollars. Performance results reflect the reinvestment of interest, dividends, and realized capital gains and include cash, cash equivalents, convertible securities, and preferred securities, if applicable. Dividends and interest are recorded on an accrual basis and are gross of all applicable foreign withholding taxes, if any. The net results reflect the deduction of 0.75%, representing the maximum advisory fees charged to client accounts during the respective periods in the Large Cap Value Dividend Focus Equity Composite. All returns are net of execution costs and exclude the effect of any income taxes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
8 Significant Cash Flows: As of January 1, 2012, PNC Capital Advisors, Inc. defines a significant cash flow for the portfolios of the Dividend Focus Equity Composite as one or more external cash outflows equaling an absolute value greater than 20%, or one or more external cash inflows equaling an absolute value greater than 50% of the portfolio s assets at the beginning of the month. Dispersion: The dispersion of annual return is measured by the standard deviation across asset-weighted portfolio returns represented within the composite for a full year. Prior to October 1, 2009, the dispersion of annual return was calculated across equal-weighted portfolio returns. Fee Schedule: The management fee schedule is as follows: 0.75% of amounts up to $5 million, 0.60% on next $10 million, 0.50% on next $35 million, and 0.45% on amounts over $50 million. The actual fees paid by a client may vary based on assets under management and other factors. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged cap-weighted index of 500 publicly traded stocks generally representative of the large-cap U.S. stock market performance and includes a representative sample of leading companies in leading industries. An investor cannot invest in the S&P 500 Index. The Russell 1000 Growth Index is an unmanaged index representative of large-cap growth stocks that measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. Investments cannot be made in an index. The Russell 1000 Value Index is an unmanaged index representative of large-cap value stocks that measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance attribution is an analysis of the representative account return relative to a selected benchmark and is calculated using daily holding information within Factset for the representative account. It does not reflect the payment of transaction costs, fees and expenses of the portfolio. Attribution is broken down into two primary effects: sector allocation (that portion of the representative account s excess return that is attributable to over-or under-weighting a sector or industry relative to the benchmark) and security selection (the portion of the representative account s excess return that is derived from choosing different securities from the benchmark). s are calculated using the closing price of any given security and do not necessarily reflect the actual trading price of such security. Accordingly, s shown above may differ from actual portfolio returns. Portfolio measures the impact that each security has on the portfolio s total return and is calculated using daily holding information within Factset by multiplying the beginning weight for a given security by its total return on a daily basis, and geometrically linked for any given period. Accordingly, the shown above could differ from actual returns when there is a significant different between the trade price and the closing price of a given security. Portfolio holdings that are included in the benchmark index are assigned to the same industries and sectors to which they are assigned by the index provider. Portfolio holdings that are not assigned by the index provider but that are included in the Factset database are assigned to the index providers, industries, and sectors by PNC Capital Advisors, LLC. Attribution is not exact, but should be considered an approximation of the relative contribution of each of the factors considered. This publication is for informational purposes only. Information contained herein is believed to be accurate, but has not been verified and cannot be guaranteed. Opinions represented are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security and are subject to change without notice. Statements in this material should not be considered investment advice or a forecast or guarantee of future results. To the extent specific securities are referenced herein, they have been selected by the author on an objective basis to illustrate the views expressed in the commentary. Such references do not include all material information about such securities, including risks, and are not intended to be recommendations to take any action with respect to such securities. The securities identified do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended and it should not be assumed that any listed securities were or will prove to be profitable. PNC Capital Advisors, LLC claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ). To receive a list of composite descriptions of PNC Capital Advisors, LLC and/or a presentation that complies with the GIPS standards, please send an to Compliance at pcacompliancegroup@pnc.com. PNC Capital Advisors, LLC is an SEC-registered investment adviser, offering an array of investment strategies. Registration with the SEC does not imply any level of skill or training. PNC Capital Advisors, LLC is an indirect subsidiary of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC Capital Advisor s strategies and the investment risks and advisory fees associated with each strategy can be found within Part 2A of the firm s Form ADV, which is available at The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. All rights reserved. INVESTMENTS: NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE
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