Does Money Matter? An Artificial Intelligence Approach
|
|
- Emil Dorsey
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 An Artificial Intelligence Approach Peter Tiňo CERCIA, University of Birmingham, UK a collaboration with J. Binner Aston Business School, Aston University, UK B. Jones State University of New York, USA G. Kendall Nottingham University, UK J. Tepper Nottigham Trent University, UK
2 Motivations What is money? Traditional interpretation of what money is capturing: Store of value Unit of account Medium of exchange Changing environment New monetary assets Banks blend with Building Societies, etc. Need to adequately measure money in order to construct money supply (monetary policy), but... how to combine and measure different objectives in a changing environment? P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 1
3 Our framework How do we know if we have been successful or not? Inflation targeting - one of the main monetary policy tools. Macroeconomists: having robust measures of money will help us in predicting inflation. In the past... We used to know how much money there was in the economy. Stable relationship between the quantity of money and prices. Macroeconomic control through targeting money supply.... but then... the case of missing money Financial innovation distorted formerly stable relationships. Major economies abandoned monetary targeting in the late 1980s. P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 2
4 Divisia Money - Bank of England Aggregate m certain Assets where we know the value (rate of return) Personal sector monetary aggregate containing: 1. Notes and coins 2. Non-interest bearing time deposits 3. Interest bearing savings (short term) 4. Interest bearing time deposits (long term) 5. Building society deposits (long term) Interest rate captures liquidity: L = IR P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 3
5 Money Stock Mismeasurement? Traditional simple sum index M = m i (Fisher, 1922) i Aggregate m i - the amount of asset i Weighted average index (such as Divisia) weighted by interest rate s i takes the degree of liquidity into account DM = i Aggregate s i m i P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 4
6 Divisia Monetary Index Capture services provided by monetary assets consumer price index for money Compare with a high yielding non-monetary asset - what else we could have done with the money... more liquid monetary asset = more services R t - max. rate of return on non-monetary asset at time t r i,t - rate of return on monetary asset i at time t price/value: p i,t = R t r i,t R t + 1 = 1 r i,t + 1 R t + 1 P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 5
7 Normalize across monetary assets j in the whole economy m i,t - quantity of monetary asset i at time t ν i,t = p i,t m i,t j p j,t m j,t Capture the flow of values of money - share weight s i,t = 1 2 (ν i,t ν i,t 1 ) Discrete-time approximation of the continuous flow (in log-scale) ln M t ln M t 1 = i s i,t (ln m i,t ln m i,t 1 ) P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 6
8 Predicting Inflation Rates - Data Monthly data 4 Levels of aggregation: M1, M2, MZM, M3 aggregation levels currently monitored in USA narrow broad At each aggregation level: Simple sum Weighting non-monetary benchmarks - BAA (a long bond in USA) - upper envelope St Louis Fed Reserve Bank style P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 7
9 Data - Cont d Interest rates short term long term Important? Short term IR are currently used in UK to control inflation. Training: Jan 61 - Feb 97 Validation: Mar 97 - Apr 01 Test: May 01 - Jun 05 P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 8
10 US Inflation Rates inflation rate train validate test P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 9
11 Predicting Inflation Rates - Models Evolutionary (FF) Neural Networks ES - crossover + Gaussian mutation evolve a population of neural networks finite length input window (finite input memory) Recurrent Neural Networks self-recurrent internal state units dynamically construct internal representations of temporal dependencies trained via BPTT P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 10
12 Kernel regression linear in parameters linear techniques in feature space finite length input window (finite input memory) Kernel width, input lag and other model hyperparameters are set on the validation set Kernel Recursive Least Squares - Kernelized version of the classical Recursive Least Squares (RLS) technique Other kernel-based regression techniques used: Kernel Partial Least Squares Relevance Vector Machine Gaussian Process P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 11
13 Kernel Recursive Least Squares R F(x) = w K(x,x) Σ i i i F K(x 1,x) K(x 2,x) K(x 3,x) K(x 4,x) X P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 12
14 Baseline - Random Walk y(t) - the actual observed inflation rate at time t. ŷ(t) - inflation rate predicted to occur at time t by our model. Predict that in T months (prediction horizon) we will observe the current inflation rate: ŷ(t + T ) = y(t) Corresponds to random walk hypothesis with moves governed by a symmetrical zero-mean density function. It measures the degree to which the efficient market hypothesis applies. P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 13
15 Root Mean Square Error Evaluation Methods RMSE = 1 N N (y(t) ŷ(t)) 2 t=1 Improvement in RMSE over baseline (RW) IORW (M) = = RMSE(RW ) RMSE(M) 100% RMSE(RW ( 1 RMSE(M) ) 100% RMSE(RW ) P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 14
16 Our Hypothesis USA MSI (divisia) - superior indicators of monetary conditions. Such evidence could reinstate monetary targeting. Most empirical studies based on cointegration techniques (Stracca 2003). We use artificial intelligence techniques to model regularities in past inflation rates and monetary indexes. P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 15
17 Results RMSE(RW) = All models implicitly included past inflation rates as input variable. Does inclusion of measures of money (or interest rates) improve predictive performance? P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 16
18 Evolved Neural Networks Evol NN M TB BAA Recurrent IORW M 1 - No No Yes :-( M 2 - No No No :-( M 3 M3 No No No :-( M 4 DM3 BAA Yes No Yes :-( :-( means worse than baseline P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 17
19 Recurrent Neural Networks RNN M TB BAA # Hidden IORW M 1 Envelop M1 Yes No M 2 - No No M 3 SS M3 Yes No M 4 - Yes Yes P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 18
20 Kernel Recursive Least Squares KRLS In Lag KW ν λ IORW M M M M P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 19
21 0.15 KRLS - Predicted Inflation Rates Val Tst P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 20
22 Lessons Learnt 1. When controlling model complexity appropriately, it is possible to beat baseline RW model quite considerably. 2. It seems that enough information is present in the inflation rates alone, no standard additional measures of money are helpful. 3. Need to deal with model complexity issues in a more profound way. 4. Other compound measures of money may be useful, but they may be model/task dependent non-linear in nature P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 21
23 Conclusions and Future Work All approaches are valid, and all try to solve the same task prediction of inflation rate. The assumptions the models make about the structure of the data are different - this is the first shot. Further work required to develop the construction of Divisia. Hybrid approaches & apply to different datasets (e.g. Risk adjusted Divisia). P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 22
24 Conclusions and Future Work policy implementation Bank of England need to be transparent and accountable with their funding. Rule Extraction Need to understand better how each technique influences the results. We may able to influence Bank of England to pursue new avenues of research and adopt new ways of constructing money, still transparent (e.g. non-linearities). Philipp s Curve... P. Tiňo, J. Binner, B. Jones, G. Kendall, J. Tepper 23
Machine Learning and Computational Finance
Machine Learning and Computational Finance 2 case studies Peter Tiňo CERCIA University of Birmingham, UK Machine Learning and Computational Finance p.1/20 Collaborators J. Binner Ch. Schittenkopf B. Jones
More informationApplication of Deep Learning to Algorithmic Trading
Application of Deep Learning to Algorithmic Trading Guanting Chen [guanting] 1, Yatong Chen [yatong] 2, and Takahiro Fushimi [tfushimi] 3 1 Institute of Computational and Mathematical Engineering, Stanford
More informationHKUST CSE FYP , TEAM RO4 OPTIMAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY USING SCALABLE MACHINE LEARNING AND DATA ANALYTICS FOR SMALL-CAP STOCKS
HKUST CSE FYP 2017-18, TEAM RO4 OPTIMAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY USING SCALABLE MACHINE LEARNING AND DATA ANALYTICS FOR SMALL-CAP STOCKS MOTIVATION MACHINE LEARNING AND FINANCE MOTIVATION SMALL-CAP MID-CAP
More informationChapter 6 Forecasting Volatility using Stochastic Volatility Model
Chapter 6 Forecasting Volatility using Stochastic Volatility Model Chapter 6 Forecasting Volatility using SV Model In this chapter, the empirical performance of GARCH(1,1), GARCH-KF and SV models from
More informationState Switching in US Equity Index Returns based on SETAR Model with Kalman Filter Tracking
State Switching in US Equity Index Returns based on SETAR Model with Kalman Filter Tracking Timothy Little, Xiao-Ping Zhang Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering Ryerson University 350 Victoria
More informationOrder Making Fiscal Year 2018 Annual Adjustments to Transaction Fee Rates
This document is scheduled to be published in the Federal Register on 04/20/2018 and available online at https://federalregister.gov/d/2018-08339, and on FDsys.gov 8011-01p SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
More informationInternational Journal of Computer Engineering and Applications, Volume XII, Issue II, Feb. 18, ISSN
Volume XII, Issue II, Feb. 18, www.ijcea.com ISSN 31-3469 AN INVESTIGATION OF FINANCIAL TIME SERIES PREDICTION USING BACK PROPAGATION NEURAL NETWORKS K. Jayanthi, Dr. K. Suresh 1 Department of Computer
More informationDoes money matter in the euro area?: Evidence from a new Divisia index 1. Introduction
Does money matter in the euro area?: Evidence from a new Divisia index 1. Introduction Money has a minor role in monetary policy and macroeconomic modelling. One important cause for this disregard is empirical:
More informationIntroduction Dickey-Fuller Test Option Pricing Bootstrapping. Simulation Methods. Chapter 13 of Chris Brook s Book.
Simulation Methods Chapter 13 of Chris Brook s Book Christopher Ting http://www.mysmu.edu/faculty/christophert/ Christopher Ting : christopherting@smu.edu.sg : 6828 0364 : LKCSB 5036 April 26, 2017 Christopher
More informationChapter IV. Forecasting Daily and Weekly Stock Returns
Forecasting Daily and Weekly Stock Returns An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts -for support rather than for illumination.0 Introduction In the previous chapter,
More informationPredicting Inflation without Predictive Regressions
Predicting Inflation without Predictive Regressions Liuren Wu Baruch College, City University of New York Joint work with Jian Hua 6th Annual Conference of the Society for Financial Econometrics June 12-14,
More informationWeek 7 Quantitative Analysis of Financial Markets Simulation Methods
Week 7 Quantitative Analysis of Financial Markets Simulation Methods Christopher Ting http://www.mysmu.edu/faculty/christophert/ Christopher Ting : christopherting@smu.edu.sg : 6828 0364 : LKCSB 5036 November
More informationExchange Rates and Fundamentals: A General Equilibrium Exploration
Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A General Equilibrium Exploration Takashi Kano Hitotsubashi University @HIAS, IER, AJRC Joint Workshop Frontiers in Macroeconomics and Macroeconometrics November 3-4, 2017
More informationA Comparative Study of Various Forecasting Techniques in Predicting. BSE S&P Sensex
NavaJyoti, International Journal of Multi-Disciplinary Research Volume 1, Issue 1, August 2016 A Comparative Study of Various Forecasting Techniques in Predicting BSE S&P Sensex Dr. Jahnavi M 1 Assistant
More informationForeign Exchange Forecasting via Machine Learning
Foreign Exchange Forecasting via Machine Learning Christian González Rojas cgrojas@stanford.edu Molly Herman mrherman@stanford.edu I. INTRODUCTION The finance industry has been revolutionized by the increased
More informationA Multifrequency Theory of the Interest Rate Term Structure
A Multifrequency Theory of the Interest Rate Term Structure Laurent Calvet, Adlai Fisher, and Liuren Wu HEC, UBC, & Baruch College Chicago University February 26, 2010 Liuren Wu (Baruch) Cascade Dynamics
More informationInternational Journal of Computer Engineering and Applications, Volume XII, Issue II, Feb. 18, ISSN
International Journal of Computer Engineering and Applications, Volume XII, Issue II, Feb. 18, www.ijcea.com ISSN 31-3469 AN INVESTIGATION OF FINANCIAL TIME SERIES PREDICTION USING BACK PROPAGATION NEURAL
More informationA Comparative Study of Ensemble-based Forecasting Models for Stock Index Prediction
Association for Information Systems AIS Electronic Library (AISeL) MWAIS 206 Proceedings Midwest (MWAIS) Spring 5-9-206 A Comparative Study of Ensemble-based Forecasting Models for Stock Index Prediction
More informationCommodity Prices, Commodity Currencies, and Global Economic Developments
Commodity Prices, Commodity Currencies, and Global Economic Developments Jan J. J. Groen Paolo A. Pesenti Federal Reserve Bank of New York August 16-17, 2012 FGV-Vale Conference The Economics and Econometrics
More informationRole of soft computing techniques in predicting stock market direction
REVIEWS Role of soft computing techniques in predicting stock market direction Panchal Amitkumar Mansukhbhai 1, Dr. Jayeshkumar Madhubhai Patel 2 1. Ph.D Research Scholar, Gujarat Technological University,
More informationMachine Learning for Quantitative Finance
Machine Learning for Quantitative Finance Fast derivative pricing Sofie Reyners Joint work with Jan De Spiegeleer, Dilip Madan and Wim Schoutens Derivative pricing is time-consuming... Vanilla option pricing
More informationThe University of Chicago, Booth School of Business Business 41202, Spring Quarter 2012, Mr. Ruey S. Tsay. Solutions to Final Exam
The University of Chicago, Booth School of Business Business 41202, Spring Quarter 2012, Mr. Ruey S. Tsay Solutions to Final Exam Problem A: (40 points) Answer briefly the following questions. 1. Consider
More information$tock Forecasting using Machine Learning
$tock Forecasting using Machine Learning Greg Colvin, Garrett Hemann, and Simon Kalouche Abstract We present an implementation of 3 different machine learning algorithms gradient descent, support vector
More informationForecasting volatility with macroeconomic and financial variables using Kernel Ridge Regressions
ERASMUS SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS Forecasting volatility with macroeconomic and financial variables using Kernel Ridge Regressions Felix C.A. Mourer 360518 Supervisor: Prof. dr. D.J. van Dijk Bachelor thesis
More informationStock Trading Following Stock Price Index Movement Classification Using Machine Learning Techniques
Stock Trading Following Stock Price Index Movement Classification Using Machine Learning Techniques 6.1 Introduction Trading in stock market is one of the most popular channels of financial investments.
More informationStatistical and Machine Learning Approach in Forex Prediction Based on Empirical Data
Statistical and Machine Learning Approach in Forex Prediction Based on Empirical Data Sitti Wetenriajeng Sidehabi Department of Electrical Engineering Politeknik ATI Makassar Makassar, Indonesia tenri616@gmail.com
More informationTime Invariant and Time Varying Inefficiency: Airlines Panel Data
Time Invariant and Time Varying Inefficiency: Airlines Panel Data These data are from the pre-deregulation days of the U.S. domestic airline industry. The data are an extension of Caves, Christensen, and
More informationReinforcement Learning. Slides based on those used in Berkeley's AI class taught by Dan Klein
Reinforcement Learning Slides based on those used in Berkeley's AI class taught by Dan Klein Reinforcement Learning Basic idea: Receive feedback in the form of rewards Agent s utility is defined by the
More informationSession 5. Predictive Modeling in Life Insurance
SOA Predictive Analytics Seminar Hong Kong 29 Aug. 2018 Hong Kong Session 5 Predictive Modeling in Life Insurance Jingyi Zhang, Ph.D Predictive Modeling in Life Insurance JINGYI ZHANG PhD Scientist Global
More informationIntroduction to Population Modeling
Introduction to Population Modeling In addition to estimating the size of a population, it is often beneficial to estimate how the population size changes over time. Ecologists often uses models to create
More informationGraduate School of Business, University of Chicago Business 41202, Spring Quarter 2007, Mr. Ruey S. Tsay. Solutions to Final Exam
Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago Business 41202, Spring Quarter 2007, Mr. Ruey S. Tsay Solutions to Final Exam Problem A: (30 pts) Answer briefly the following questions. 1. Suppose that
More informationIs the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach
Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach Peter Christoffersen University of Toronto Vihang Errunza McGill University Kris Jacobs University of Houston
More informationSupport Vector Machines: Training with Stochastic Gradient Descent
Support Vector Machines: Training with Stochastic Gradient Descent Machine Learning Spring 2018 The slides are mainly from Vivek Srikumar 1 Support vector machines Training by maximizing margin The SVM
More informationModelling Returns: the CER and the CAPM
Modelling Returns: the CER and the CAPM Carlo Favero Favero () Modelling Returns: the CER and the CAPM 1 / 20 Econometric Modelling of Financial Returns Financial data are mostly observational data: they
More informationAmath 546/Econ 589 Univariate GARCH Models
Amath 546/Econ 589 Univariate GARCH Models Eric Zivot April 24, 2013 Lecture Outline Conditional vs. Unconditional Risk Measures Empirical regularities of asset returns Engle s ARCH model Testing for ARCH
More informationEfficient Management of Multi-Frequency Panel Data with Stata. Department of Economics, Boston College
Efficient Management of Multi-Frequency Panel Data with Stata Christopher F Baum Department of Economics, Boston College May 2001 Prepared for United Kingdom Stata User Group Meeting http://repec.org/nasug2001/baum.uksug.pdf
More informationMachine Learning for Multi-step Ahead Forecasting of Volatility Proxies
Machine Learning for Multi-step Ahead Forecasting of Volatility Proxies Jacopo De Stefani, Ir. - jdestefa@ulb.ac.be Prof. Gianluca Bontempi - gbonte@ulb.ac.be Olivier Caelen, PhD - olivier.caelen@worldline.com
More informationCOMP417 Introduction to Robotics and Intelligent Systems. Reinforcement Learning - 2
COMP417 Introduction to Robotics and Intelligent Systems Reinforcement Learning - 2 Speaker: Sandeep Manjanna Acklowledgement: These slides use material from Pieter Abbeel s, Dan Klein s and John Schulman
More informationA Production-Based Model for the Term Structure
A Production-Based Model for the Term Structure U Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania U Term Structure Wharton School of the University 1 / 19 Production-based asset pricing in the literature
More informationSurvey of Math: Chapter 21: Consumer Finance Savings (Lecture 1) Page 1
Survey of Math: Chapter 21: Consumer Finance Savings (Lecture 1) Page 1 The mathematical concepts we use to describe finance are also used to describe how populations of organisms vary over time, how disease
More informationThe Term Structure of Expected Inflation Rates
The Term Structure of Expected Inflation Rates by HANS-JüRG BüTTLER Swiss National Bank and University of Zurich Switzerland 0 Introduction 1 Preliminaries 2 Term Structure of Nominal Interest Rates 3
More informationAgricultural and Applied Economics 637 Applied Econometrics II
Agricultural and Applied Economics 637 Applied Econometrics II Assignment I Using Search Algorithms to Determine Optimal Parameter Values in Nonlinear Regression Models (Due: February 3, 2015) (Note: Make
More informationLecture 2. Probability Distributions Theophanis Tsandilas
Lecture 2 Probability Distributions Theophanis Tsandilas Comment on measures of dispersion Why do common measures of dispersion (variance and standard deviation) use sums of squares: nx (x i ˆµ) 2 i=1
More informationInternational Financial Markets Prices and Policies. Second Edition Richard M. Levich. Overview. ❿ Measuring Economic Exposure to FX Risk
International Financial Markets Prices and Policies Second Edition 2001 Richard M. Levich 16C Measuring and Managing the Risk in International Financial Positions Chap 16C, p. 1 Overview ❿ Measuring Economic
More informationOnline Appendix to Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy. Pairwise Tests of Equality of Forecasting Performance
Online Appendix to Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy This online appendix is divided into four sections. In section A we perform pairwise tests aiming at disentangling
More informationIran s Stock Market Prediction By Neural Networks and GA
Iran s Stock Market Prediction By Neural Networks and GA Mahmood Khatibi MS. in Control Engineering mahmood.khatibi@gmail.com Habib Rajabi Mashhadi Associate Professor h_mashhadi@ferdowsi.um.ac.ir Electrical
More informationLending Club Loan Portfolio Optimization Fred Robson (frobson), Chris Lucas (cflucas)
CS22 Artificial Intelligence Stanford University Autumn 26-27 Lending Club Loan Portfolio Optimization Fred Robson (frobson), Chris Lucas (cflucas) Overview Lending Club is an online peer-to-peer lending
More informationNeuro-Genetic System for DAX Index Prediction
Neuro-Genetic System for DAX Index Prediction Marcin Jaruszewicz and Jacek Mańdziuk Faculty of Mathematics and Information Science, Warsaw University of Technology, Plac Politechniki 1, 00-661 Warsaw,
More informationA Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure: the Case for a Quadratic Yield Model
Title page Outline A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure: the Case for a 21, June Czech National Bank Structure of the presentation Title page Outline Structure of the presentation: Model Formulation
More informationWhich GARCH Model for Option Valuation? By Peter Christoffersen and Kris Jacobs
Online Appendix Sample Index Returns Which GARCH Model for Option Valuation? By Peter Christoffersen and Kris Jacobs In order to give an idea of the differences in returns over the sample, Figure A.1 plots
More information1 Answers to the Sept 08 macro prelim - Long Questions
Answers to the Sept 08 macro prelim - Long Questions. Suppose that a representative consumer receives an endowment of a non-storable consumption good. The endowment evolves exogenously according to ln
More informationGraduated from Glasgow University in 2009: BSc with Honours in Mathematics and Statistics.
The statistical dilemma: Forecasting future losses for IFRS 9 under a benign economic environment, a trade off between statistical robustness and business need. Katie Cleary Introduction Presenter: Katie
More informationCOMPARING NEURAL NETWORK AND REGRESSION MODELS IN ASSET PRICING MODEL WITH HETEROGENEOUS BELIEFS
Akademie ved Leske republiky Ustav teorie informace a automatizace Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Institute of Information Theory and Automation RESEARCH REPORT JIRI KRTEK COMPARING NEURAL NETWORK
More informationModeling and Predictability of Exchange Rate Changes by the Extended Relative Nelson Siegel Class of Models
Modeling and Predictability of Exchange Rate Changes by the Extended Relative Nelson Siegel Class of Models August 30, 2018 Hokuto Ishii Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University Abstract This paper
More informationImproving Stock Price Prediction with SVM by Simple Transformation: The Sample of Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)
Thai Journal of Mathematics Volume 14 (2016) Number 3 : 553 563 http://thaijmath.in.cmu.ac.th ISSN 1686-0209 Improving Stock Price Prediction with SVM by Simple Transformation: The Sample of Stock Exchange
More informationStock Price and Index Forecasting by Arbitrage Pricing Theory-Based Gaussian TFA Learning
Stock Price and Index Forecasting by Arbitrage Pricing Theory-Based Gaussian TFA Learning Kai Chun Chiu and Lei Xu Department of Computer Science and Engineering The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin,
More informationMONEY DEMAND FUNCTION FOR PAKISTAN (DIVISIA APPROACH)
1 Pakistan Economic and Social Review Volume 48, No. 1 (Summer 2010), pp. 1-20 MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION FOR PAKISTAN (DIVISIA APPROACH) HAROON SARWAR, ZAKIR HUSSAIN and MASOOD SARWAR* Abstract. The money
More informationOesterreichische Nationalbank. Eurosystem. Workshops. Proceedings of OeNB Workshops. Macroeconomic Models and Forecasts for Austria
Oesterreichische Nationalbank Eurosystem Workshops Proceedings of OeNB Workshops Macroeconomic Models and Forecasts for Austria November 11 to 12, 2004 No. 5 Comment on Evaluating Euro Exchange Rate Predictions
More informationThe rth moment of a real-valued random variable X with density f(x) is. x r f(x) dx
1 Cumulants 1.1 Definition The rth moment of a real-valued random variable X with density f(x) is µ r = E(X r ) = x r f(x) dx for integer r = 0, 1,.... The value is assumed to be finite. Provided that
More informationMonetaryTrends. September 2013
MonetaryTrends September 1 This publication contains charts and tables compiled by the Data Desk staff of the. The data are related to U.S. monetary and financial conditions, with an emphasis on various
More informationMonetaryTrends. April 2013
MonetaryTrends April 1 This publication contains charts and tables compiled by the Data Desk staff of the. The data are related to U.S. monetary and financial conditions, with an emphasis on various measures
More informationCredit Shocks and the U.S. Business Cycle. Is This Time Different? Raju Huidrom University of Virginia. Midwest Macro Conference
Credit Shocks and the U.S. Business Cycle: Is This Time Different? Raju Huidrom University of Virginia May 31, 214 Midwest Macro Conference Raju Huidrom Credit Shocks and the U.S. Business Cycle Background
More informationLog-Robust Portfolio Management
Log-Robust Portfolio Management Dr. Aurélie Thiele Lehigh University Joint work with Elcin Cetinkaya and Ban Kawas Research partially supported by the National Science Foundation Grant CMMI-0757983 Dr.
More informationMonetaryTrends. August 2012
MonetaryTrends August 1 This publication contains charts and tables compiled by the Data Desk staff of the. The data are related to U.S. monetary and financial conditions, with an emphasis on various measures
More informationReading: You should read Hull chapter 12 and perhaps the very first part of chapter 13.
FIN-40008 FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS SPRING 2008 Asset Price Dynamics Introduction These notes give assumptions of asset price returns that are derived from the efficient markets hypothesis. Although a hypothesis,
More informationRiccardo Rebonato Global Head of Quantitative Research, FM, RBS Global Head of Market Risk, CBFM, RBS
Why Neither Time Homogeneity nor Time Dependence Will Do: Evidence from the US$ Swaption Market Cambridge, May 2005 Riccardo Rebonato Global Head of Quantitative Research, FM, RBS Global Head of Market
More informationCommon stock prices 1. New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31,1965=50)2. Transportation. Utility 3. Finance
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 000 97 98 99 I90 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 970 97 97 ""..".'..'.."... 97 97 97 97 977 978 979 980 98 98 98 98 98 98 987 988
More informationEuro-MIND: A Monthly INDicator of the Economic Activity in the Euro Area
Euro-MIND: A Monthly INDicator of the Economic Activity in the Euro Area C. Frale, M. Marcellino, G.L. Mazzi and T. Proietti 9 Brown Bag Lunch Meeting-MEF Rome, 9th December 2008 Motivation Gross domestic
More informationDemand Effects and Speculation in Oil Markets: Theory and Evidence
Demand Effects and Speculation in Oil Markets: Theory and Evidence Eyal Dvir (BC) and Ken Rogoff (Harvard) IMF - OxCarre Conference, March 2013 Introduction Is there a long-run stable relationship between
More informationEquity correlations implied by index options: estimation and model uncertainty analysis
1/18 : estimation and model analysis, EDHEC Business School (joint work with Rama COT) Modeling and managing financial risks Paris, 10 13 January 2011 2/18 Outline 1 2 of multi-asset models Solution to
More informationApplied Macro Finance
Master in Money and Finance Goethe University Frankfurt Week 2: Factor models and the cross-section of stock returns Fall 2012/2013 Please note the disclaimer on the last page Announcements Next week (30
More informationImpact of Devaluation on Trade Balance in Pakistan
Page 16 Oeconomics of Knowledge, Volume 3, Issue 3, 3Q, Summer 2011 Impact of Devaluation on Trade Balance in Pakistan Muhammad ASIF, Lecturer Management Sciences Department CIIT, Abbottabad, Pakistan
More informationExtracting Information from the Markets: A Bayesian Approach
Extracting Information from the Markets: A Bayesian Approach Daniel Waggoner The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Florida State University, February 29, 2008 Disclaimer: The views expressed are the author
More informationForecasting Volatility of USD/MUR Exchange Rate using a GARCH (1,1) model with GED and Student s-t errors
UNIVERSITY OF MAURITIUS RESEARCH JOURNAL Volume 17 2011 University of Mauritius, Réduit, Mauritius Research Week 2009/2010 Forecasting Volatility of USD/MUR Exchange Rate using a GARCH (1,1) model with
More information. Large-dimensional and multi-scale effects in stocks volatility m
Large-dimensional and multi-scale effects in stocks volatility modeling Swissquote bank, Quant Asset Management work done at: Chaire de finance quantitative, École Centrale Paris Capital Fund Management,
More informationThe Kalman Filter Approach for Estimating the Natural Unemployment Rate in Romania
ACTA UNIVERSITATIS DANUBIUS Vol 10, no 1, 2014 The Kalman Filter Approach for Estimating the Natural Unemployment Rate in Romania Mihaela Simionescu 1 Abstract: The aim of this research is to determine
More informationDo core inflation measures help forecast inflation? Out-of-sample evidence from French data
Economics Letters 69 (2000) 261 266 www.elsevier.com/ locate/ econbase Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation? Out-of-sample evidence from French data Herve Le Bihan *, Franck Sedillot Banque
More informationCS 294-2, Grouping and Recognition (Prof. Jitendra Malik) Aug 30, 1999 Lecture #3 (Maximum likelihood framework) DRAFT Notes by Joshua Levy ffl Maximu
CS 294-2, Grouping and Recognition (Prof. Jitendra Malik) Aug 30, 1999 Lecture #3 (Maximum likelihood framework) DRAFT Notes by Joshua Levy l Maximum likelihood framework The estimation problem Maximum
More informationMonetaryTrends. What is the slope of the yield curve telling us?
MonetaryTrends August What is the slope of the yield curve telling us? A yield curve is a graph of interest rates for bonds that have similar risk characteristics but differing maturities. Most of the
More informationThe University of Chicago, Booth School of Business Business 41202, Spring Quarter 2017, Mr. Ruey S. Tsay. Solutions to Final Exam
The University of Chicago, Booth School of Business Business 41202, Spring Quarter 2017, Mr. Ruey S. Tsay Solutions to Final Exam Problem A: (40 points) Answer briefly the following questions. 1. Describe
More informationMax Registers, Counters and Monotone Circuits
James Aspnes 1 Hagit Attiya 2 Keren Censor 2 1 Yale 2 Technion Counters Model Collects Our goal: build a cheap counter for an asynchronous shared-memory system. Two operations: increment and read. Read
More informationOn modelling of electricity spot price
, Rüdiger Kiesel and Fred Espen Benth Institute of Energy Trading and Financial Services University of Duisburg-Essen Centre of Mathematics for Applications, University of Oslo 25. August 2010 Introduction
More informationarxiv: v2 [stat.ml] 19 Oct 2017
Time Series Prediction: Predicting Stock Price Aaron Elliot ellioa2@bu.edu Cheng Hua Hsu jack0617@bu.edu arxiv:1710.05751v2 [stat.ml] 19 Oct 2017 Abstract Time series forecasting is widely used in a multitude
More informationMeasuring DAX Market Risk: A Neural Network Volatility Mixture Approach
Measuring DAX Market Risk: A Neural Network Volatility Mixture Approach Kai Bartlmae, Folke A. Rauscher DaimlerChrysler AG, Research and Technology FT3/KL, P. O. Box 2360, D-8903 Ulm, Germany E mail: fkai.bartlmae,
More informationBusiness Statistics 41000: Probability 3
Business Statistics 41000: Probability 3 Drew D. Creal University of Chicago, Booth School of Business February 7 and 8, 2014 1 Class information Drew D. Creal Email: dcreal@chicagobooth.edu Office: 404
More information2D5362 Machine Learning
2D5362 Machine Learning Reinforcement Learning MIT GALib Available at http://lancet.mit.edu/ga/ download galib245.tar.gz gunzip galib245.tar.gz tar xvf galib245.tar cd galib245 make or access my files
More informationBloomberg. Portfolio Value-at-Risk. Sridhar Gollamudi & Bryan Weber. September 22, Version 1.0
Portfolio Value-at-Risk Sridhar Gollamudi & Bryan Weber September 22, 2011 Version 1.0 Table of Contents 1 Portfolio Value-at-Risk 2 2 Fundamental Factor Models 3 3 Valuation methodology 5 3.1 Linear factor
More informationValuing Investments A Statistical Perspective. Bob Stine Department of Statistics Wharton, University of Pennsylvania
Valuing Investments A Statistical Perspective Bob Stine, University of Pennsylvania Overview Principles Focus on returns, not cumulative value Remove market performance (CAPM) Watch for unseen volatility
More informationTDT4171 Artificial Intelligence Methods
TDT47 Artificial Intelligence Methods Lecture 7 Making Complex Decisions Norwegian University of Science and Technology Helge Langseth IT-VEST 0 helgel@idi.ntnu.no TDT47 Artificial Intelligence Methods
More informationFrom default probabilities to credit spreads: Credit risk models do explain market prices
From default probabilities to credit spreads: Credit risk models do explain market prices Presented by Michel M Dacorogna (Joint work with Stefan Denzler, Alexander McNeil and Ulrich A. Müller) The 2007
More informationThe Information Content of the Yield Curve
The Information Content of the Yield Curve by HANS-JüRG BüTTLER Swiss National Bank and University of Zurich Switzerland 0 Introduction 1 Basic Relationships 2 The CIR Model 3 Estimation: Pooled Time-series
More informationALGORITHMIC TRADING STRATEGIES IN PYTHON
7-Course Bundle In ALGORITHMIC TRADING STRATEGIES IN PYTHON Learn to use 15+ trading strategies including Statistical Arbitrage, Machine Learning, Quantitative techniques, Forex valuation methods, Options
More informationSTATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT ALBANY Department of Economics. Ph. D. Comprehensive Examination: Macroeconomics Spring, 2016
STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT ALBANY Department of Economics Ph. D. Comprehensive Examination: Macroeconomics Spring, 2016 Section 1. Suggested Time: 45 Minutes) For 3 of the following 6 statements,
More informationESTIMATING MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION OF BANGLADESH
BRAC University Journal, vol. VIII, no. 1&2, 2011, pp. 31-36 ESTIMATING MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION OF BANGLADESH Md. Habibul Alam Miah Department of Economics Asian University of Bangladesh, Uttara, Dhaka Email:
More informationSix-Year Income Tax Revenue Forecast FY
Six-Year Income Tax Revenue Forecast FY 2017-2022 Prepared for the Prepared by the Economics Center February 2017 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... i INTRODUCTION... 1 Tax Revenue Trends... 1 AGGREGATE
More informationJournal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Vol:1, No:1 (2017) 1-13
Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Vol:1, No:1 (2017) 1-13 Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis Type: Double Blind Peer Reviewed Scientific Journal Printed ISSN: 2521-6627 Online ISSN:
More informationIrving Fisher ( ), one of America s greatest
MonetaryTrends October 1 Deflation and the Fisher Equation Irving Fisher (187-197), one of America s greatest monetary economists, is famous for many reasons. One of the most important is the Fisher equation,
More informationPredicting Economic Recession using Data Mining Techniques
Predicting Economic Recession using Data Mining Techniques Authors Naveed Ahmed Kartheek Atluri Tapan Patwardhan Meghana Viswanath Predicting Economic Recession using Data Mining Techniques Page 1 Abstract
More informationFinancial Econometrics Notes. Kevin Sheppard University of Oxford
Financial Econometrics Notes Kevin Sheppard University of Oxford Monday 15 th January, 2018 2 This version: 22:52, Monday 15 th January, 2018 2018 Kevin Sheppard ii Contents 1 Probability, Random Variables
More informationMasterarbeit. Leibniz Universität Hannover Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Institut für Wirtschaftsinformatik
Leibniz Universität Hannover Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Institut für Wirtschaftsinformatik Masterarbeit zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Master of Science (M.Sc.) im Studiengang Wirtschaftswissenschaft
More information