Hindustan Unilever BUY RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17 18 MAY 2017

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1 INDUSTRY FMCG CMP (as on 17 May 17) Rs 1,009 Target Price Rs 1,140 Nifty 9,526 Sensex 30,659 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg HUVR IN No. of Shares (mn) 2,164 MCap (Rs bn)/(us$ mn) 2,185/34,079 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,072 STOCK PERFORMANCE () 52 Week high / low Rs 1,012 / 782 3M 6M 12M Absolute () Relative () SHAREHOLDING PATTERN () Promoters FIs & Local MFs 5.66 FPIs Public & Others Source : BSE Naveen Trivedi naveen.trivedi@hdfcsec.com Beginning of a dream run HUL s numbers were better than our and street s expectations. Net revenue was up 6.4 YoY at Rs 82.1bn (4 estimates). Domestic biz clocked healthy 8 growth, with a 4 UVG (3 expectation). EBITDA and APAT were up by 12 and 10. After registering 4 decline in UVG in 3QFY17, this performance was inspiring, particularly when peers were struggling. We are encouraged by HUL s broadbased growth, as Home Care, PC and Refreshments verticals registered healthy 7, 8 and 11 growth respectively. We expect healthy 12 revenue CAGR over FY17-20E (higher than 8 in the last 5 years). Our revenue acceleration assumption is based on (1) Premiumisation across HUL s portfolio, (2) Expansion in the branded market post GST, (3) Improving consumer sentiments (monsoon can be a tailwind) and (4) HULs increase in direct reach. HUL s gross margin was down by a marginal 16bps to 51. While employee and ASP expenses were down 12 (-100bps) and 1 (-82bps). Therefore, EBITDA RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY17 18 MAY 2017 Hindustan Unilever BUY margin was up 100bps to 20. Healthy premium segment growth has expanded the EBIT margin for Home care and PC by 216bps and 19bps resp. We expect HUL s EBITDA margin to expand 200bps over FY17-20 led by (1) Higher premium segment growth, (2) Control on ASP, (3) Operational efficiencies after GST, (4) Better pricing power with improving consumer sentiments. We expect Revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 11.9/15.5/16.9 respectively over FY HUL s high valuation is natural, considering its consistent market share gain, with margin expansion and a strong RoCE. HUL would be a key beneficiary of both GST and premiumisation. We increase our EPS estimates by 3 and 6 for FY18 and FY19 resp. We also increase our target P/E to 40x (37x earlier) on Jun- 19EPS. Our TP is Rs 1,140 (Rs 954 earlier), and we upgrade HUL to BUY from NEUTRAL. Near-term outlook: Stable raw material prices with healthy premium segment growth can expand margins in the coming quarters. We expect the stock to give healthy returns in the near term. Financial Summary (Rs mn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY () 3QFY17 QoQ () FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Revenue 82,130 77, , , , , , ,642 EBITDA 16,510 14, , ,131 63,399 73,566 86,039 97,797 APAT 11,837 10, , ,664 43,240 50,386 59,256 69,064 EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Core RoCE () HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

2 Revenue recovered and grew by 6.4 with 3 UVG, while UVG was down 4 in 3QFY17 60 of portfolio gained market share GM declined marginally by 16bps to 51 Employee expenses were down 12, with a bonus in 4QFY16. Employee expenses were up by 3 in FY17 ASP expense has rationalised by 1.4, and stood at 10.4 of sales. ASP expense was down 4 in FY17 EBITDA margin expanded by 103bps to 20.1 Quarterly Financials Year to March (Rs mn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY Chg 3QFY17 QoQ Chg Net Sales 81,000 75, , Other Operating Income 1,130 1,363 (17.1) 1,935 (41.6) Total Income 82,130 77, , Material Expenses 40,220 37, , Employee Expenses 3,880 4,426 (12.3) 4,093 (5.2) ASP 8,530 8,655 (1.4) 8,851 (3.6) Other Operating Expenses 12,990 11, ,115 (1.0) EBITDA 16,510 14, , Depreciation 1, , EBIT 15,430 13, , Other Income 830 1,014 (18.1) Interest Cost PBT 16,190 15, , Tax 4,030 3, ,482 (10.1) RPAT 11,830 11, , EO Items (Adj For Tax) (7) 372 (102.0) 1,069 (100.7) APAT 11,837 10, , EPS (Adjusted) As Of Net Revenue Material Cost Employee Expenses (101) 5.3 (59) ASP Expenses (82) 11.5 (110) Other Expenses (120) EBITDA Tax Rate (18) 30.2 (527) APAT Page 2

3 Home care reported healthy 7 growth. Laundry biz was driven by the premium segment. Surf sustained double-digit growth even in a difficult scenario. Vim liquid maintained healthy growth PC registered healthy 8 growth after many quarters. Soaps premiumisation with a pickup in hair care and skin care supported growth. Oral care segment is still struggling, but the new launch Lever Ayush is receiving good response Refreshment maintained healthy growth, driven by broad-based double digit growth in Tea Home care EBIT margin expanded significantly. Mgt expects more upside in margins, driven by higher premium segment growth PC maintain a strong EBIT margin of 24 Quarterly Segmental Year to March (Rs mn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 Change 3QFY17 Change Segmental Revenues Home Care 30,040 27, , Personal Care (PC) 40,750 37, , Foods 2,950 2, , Refreshment 13,000 11, , Others 2,010 2,890 (30.4) 1, Total 88,750 83, , Segmental EBIT Home Care 3,890 3, , Personal Care (PC) 9,840 9, , Foods (26.5) Refreshment 2,190 1, , Others (40) 135 (129.6) (166) (75.8) Total 16,160 14, , (a) Interest Cost & Bank Charges (b) Other Un-allocable Expenses (90) (850) (89.4) (1,548) (94.2) PBT 16,190 15, , Capital Employed Home Care (4,450) (2,640) na (5,354) na Personal Care (PC) 2,820 (1,580) na Foods Refreshment 7,350 8,940 (17.8) 6, Others 900 1,290 (30.2) Total 7,080 6, , Unallocable Capital Employed 57,820 56, , Total Capital Employed 64,900 62, , EBIT Margin Year to March (Rs mn) 4QFY17 4QFY16 YoY Chg 3QFY17 QoQ Chg Home Care Personal Care (PC) Foods (374) Refreshment Others (2.0) 4.7 (667) (8.5) na Total Page 3

4 Net revenue growth accelerated after weak performance in many quarters After registering negative UVG in the previous two quarters, HUL rebounded with 4 UVG Net Revenue Growth (3.0) (0.7) Underlying Volume Growth (2.0) (4.0) (6.0) (1.0) (4.0) Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 EBITDA APAT Consistent expansion in EBITDA margin for HUL for the last 5 years 20,000 16,000 EBITDA Rs mn EBITDA Margin () - RHS ,000 12,000 Rs mn APAT NPM () - RHS NPM continued to expand and touched 14 during quarter 12,000 8,000 4, ,000 4, Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Page 4

5 Personal Care Performance Home Care Performance PC segment growth rate remained under pressure. Oral care and Soaps dragged performance 31,000 29,500 28,000 26,500 Rs mn Revenue EBIT Margin - RHS ,000 40,000 38,000 Rs mn Revenue EBIT Margin - RHS Home care segment maintained positive growth driven by the premium segment 25,000 23,500 22,000 20, ,000 34,000 32, Refreshment has been consistently growing in high single-digits. Tea has been showing healthy volume growth Food performance remains volatile Refreshment Performance Revenue EBIT Margin - RHS Rs mn 12,800 12,200 11,600 11,000 10, Food Performance Revenue Rs mn 3,000 2,750 2,500 EBIT Margin - RHS , , ,250 - Page 5

6 PC business maintains its high margin. Segment growth was encouraging, and we expect growth to accelerate in the coming quarters Home care EBIT margin expansion has changed the EBIT mix for the segment by 330bps YoY. However, there is still room for further margin expansion Personal Care Performance Particulars (Rs mn) Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Revenue 38,171 40,413 40,905 37,700 38,986 40,280 39,802 40,750 YoY Gr. () Revenue Mix () EBIT 10,184 8,906 9,907 9,030 10,214 9,226 9,208 9,840 EBIT Margin () EBIT Mix () Home Care Performance Particulars (Rs mn) Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Revenue 23,972 26,908 26,617 27,980 25,596 27,770 26,891 30,040 YoY Gr. () Revenue Mix () EBIT 2,900 2,246 2,356 3,020 3,559 2,800 2,342 3,890 EBIT Margin () EBIT Mix () Foods Performance Particulars (Rs mn) Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Revenue 2,550 2,712 2,772 2,880 2,670 2,778 2,785 2,950 YoY Gr. () Revenue Mix () EBIT EBIT Margin () EBIT Mix () Refreshment Performance Particulars (Rs mn) Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Revenue 11,297 10,789 10,764 11,760 11,912 11,692 11,641 13,000 YoY Gr. () Revenue Mix () EBIT 1,786 1,469 1,595 1,943 1,921 1,726 1,713 2,190 EBIT Margin () EBIT Mix () Page 6

7 HUL s healthy 4QFY17 performance came when most peers were struggling for growth Domestic Revenue Growth Comparison Domestic Volume Growth Comparison We expect HUL would sustain healthy growth in the coming quarters HUL Dabur Emami Marico Bajaj Corp HUL Dabur Emami Marico Bajaj Corp We expect HUL s revenue growth would accelerate in the coming years, owing to higher premiumisation, market share gain from unorganised sector (post GST) and better direct reach Better monsoon can further accelerate rural growth in the ensuing quarters We expect HUL can expand 200bps EBITDA margin over FY17-20, driven by higher premium segment growth, operational efficiencies through GST and better control on ASP Assumptions FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E FY20E Revenue Growth () Soaps and Detergents Personal Products Beverages 6.9 (1.7) Packaged Food Others (2.5) Total Gross Margin () ASP ( of sales) Distribution ( of sales) EBITDA Margin () ETR () Page 7

8 Estimates Change FY18E FY19E OLD NEW Chg () OLD NEW Chg () Net Sales 376, ,767 (1.6) 416, ,014 (0.3) EBITDA 70,549 73, ,362 86, APAT 49,069 50, ,808 59, EPS Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Peer Valuation Company MCap EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Core RoCE () CMP TP (Rs Reco. (Rs) (Rs) FY17P FY18E FY19E FY17P FY18E FY19E FY17P FY18E FY19E FY17P FY18E FY19E bn) ITC 3, BUY HUL 2,177 1,006 BUY 1, Dabur BUY Britannia 453 3,773 BUY 3, Marico NEU Colgate NEU Emami 249 1,096 BUY 1, Jub. Food 67 1,023 NEU 1, Havells NEU Crompton BUY V-Guard BUY Page 8

9 Income Statement (Rs mn) FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Revenues 321, , , , ,642 Growth () Material Expenses 131, , , , ,045 Employee Expense 16,800 17,430 18,308 19,232 20,202 ASP Expense 36,560 35,420 41,455 47,024 52,648 Distribution Expenses 14,500 15,255 17,055 19,091 21,374 Other expenses 61,950 64,628 71,105 78,506 88,577 EBITDA 60,131 63,399 73,566 86,039 97,797 EBITDA Growth () EBITDA Margin Depreciation 3,530 4,320 4,993 5,322 5,636 EBIT 56,601 59,079 68,573 80,717 92,161 Other Income (Including EO Items) 3,920 6,060 3,706 3,623 6,112 Interest PBT 60,351 64,789 72,169 84,257 98,190 Tax 18,830 19,770 21,651 24,856 28,966 RPAT 41,451 44,899 50,386 59,256 69,064 adjustment (213) 1, APAT 41,664 43,240 50,386 59,256 69,064 APAT Growth () Adjusted EPS (Rs) EPS Growth () Balance Sheet (Rs mn) FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E FY20E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity 2,164 2,164 2,164 2,164 2,164 Reserves 63,570 63,394 65,256 73,435 91,421 Total Shareholders Funds 65,734 65,558 67,421 75,599 93,586 Minority Interest Long Term Debt Short Term Debt 1,770 2,770 2,770 2,770 2,770 Total Debt 1,770 2,770 2,770 2,770 2,770 Net Deferred Taxes (2,333) (2,033) (2,033) (2,033) (2,033) Long Term Provisions & Others 13,347 13,814 14,558 15,344 16,174 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 78,718 80,429 83,168 92, ,253 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 32,580 44,190 44,697 44,375 43,739 CWIP 4,080 2,290 1, Non-current Assets 3,250 3,250 3,250 3,250 3,250 LT Loans & Advances 6,362 7,046 7,805 8,646 9,578 Total Non-current Assets 46,272 56,776 56,897 56,843 56,853 Distribution Expense 27,260 25,410 28,197 31,405 35,098 Debtors 12,640 10,850 12,131 13,578 15,202 Other Expenses 12,159 13,807 14,071 14,880 15,770 Cash & Equivalents 55,750 56,643 60,066 69,265 87,916 Total Current Assets 107, , , , ,987 Creditors 56,850 61,860 66,190 70,824 75,781 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 12,609 13,635 14,442 15,309 16,243 Total Current Liabilities 69,459 75,495 80,632 86,133 92,024 Net Current Assets 38,350 31,215 33,833 42,997 61,963 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 84,622 87,991 90,730 99, ,816 Page 9

10 Cash Flow Statement (Rs mn) FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E FY20E Reported PBT 59,851 64,789 72,169 84,257 98,190 Non-operating & EO Items (947) Interest Expenses (2,481) Depreciation 3,573 4,320 4,993 5,322 5,636 Working Capital Change (1,079) 7, (19) (418) Tax Paid (17,663) (19,470) (21,651) (24,856) (28,966) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 41,253 57,799 56,412 64,788 74,525 Capex (7,914) (14,140) (4,355) (4,428) (4,714) Free Cash Flow (FCF) 33,340 43,659 52,057 60,360 69,811 Investments 689 (12,280) (3,500) (3,500) (3,500) Non-operating Income 4, INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (2,682) (26,420) (7,855) (7,928) (8,214) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 2,117 1, Interest Expenses (45) (350) (111) (83) (83) FCFE 35,412 44,309 51,946 60,277 69,728 Share Capital Issuance (110) Dividend (33,417) (36,793) (41,122) (43,286) (43,286) Others (6,735) (6,623) (7,402) (7,791) (7,791) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (38,190) (42,766) (48,634) (51,161) (51,161) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 382 (11,387) (77) 5,699 15,151 EO Items, Others 3, Closing Cash & Equivalents 30,090 18,703 18,626 24,325 39,476 Key Ratios FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E FY20E PROFITABILITY () GPM EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin APAT Margin RoE RoCE EFFICIENCY Tax Rate () Fixed Asset Turnover (x) Inventory (days) Debtors (days) Other Current Assets (days) Payables (days) Other Current Liab & Provns (days) Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (19.7) (28.0) (25.8) (23.1) (20.4) Net D/E (x) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.9) (0.9) PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS CEPS Dividend Book Value VALUATION P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Revenues (x) OCF/EV () FCF/EV () FCFE/Mkt Cap () Dividend Yield () Page 10

11 RECOMMENDATION HISTORY HUVR 1,200 1,100 1, TP Date CMP Reco Target 10-May NEU Oct NEU Jan NEU Apr NEU May-17 1,009 BUY 1, May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10 returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10 to 10 returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10 returns over the next 12 month period Page 11

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