Lupin BUY COMPANY UPDATE 12 SEP 2013
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- Ernest Horton
- 5 years ago
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1 COMPANY UPDATE 12 SEP 2013 Lupin BUY INDUSTRY PHARMA CMP (as on 12 Sep 2013) Rs 866 Target Price Rs 941 Nifty 5,851 Sensex 19,782 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg /Reuters LPC IN/LUPN.BO No. of Shares (mn) 448 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 388/6,081 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 927 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 908/496 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) Relative (%) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters FIs & Local MFs FIIs Public & Others Source : BSE Meeta Shetty, CFA meeta.shetty@hdfcsec.com Key approvals a trigger Post our meeting with the Lupin (LPC) management, we reiterate our positive stance on LPC and marginally upgrade (up ~5%) our target for LPC. Key takeaways were, (a) ramp up in revenues driven by new launches for the current quarter (b) visible 2HFY14 launches like Niaspan, Triliprix & Trizivir (c) Gatifloxacin not yet launched, will be launched in the coming month (d) Large OC products like Ortho Tricyclen Lo and YAZ to come by FY16 (e) pick up in the domestic formulations segment in the last month (f) I rom continues to see pressure on its CRAMS segment (30-40% of its revenues). (g) Apotex yet to launch Antara generic. Main concern for LPC, in recent times, has been increasing competition in its US branded portfolio and Tricor, but we believe interesting opportunities lined up in 2HFY14 and ramp up in the OC s portfolio would more than offset for the weakness. LPC has one of the most visible pipeline, amongst its peers, for the US market which would keep the traction strong over the coming two years with 20% CAGR. On the other hand Domestic formulations segment would also continue to outperform the IPM with 16% CAGR, given its strong product portfolio. With ~65% of revenues (Domestic & US) expected to remain strong coupled with steady growth from the rest of business, we firmly believe LPC is poised for strong revenue/pat CAGR for the coming years. Delays in US approvals remain key risk to our call. Outlook and valuation : We expect LPC to post 19/21% CAGR in Revenues/PAT over FY13-15E. At CMP of Rs 860, the stock is trading at ~20x its FY15E EPS of Rs 42.8 (earlier Rs 40.6). Lupin is our preferred pick from the pharma space, we maintain BUY with a revised price target of Rs 941 (earlier Rs 893). US deep dive : We analysed LPC s product wise revenues to gauge the impact of weakness in Tricor (US$68/34mn in FY14/15E) and US branded revenues (US$143/123mn in FY13/14E). However, we do not see this as a major concern given the interesting opportunities lined up in 2HFY14 and ramp up in the OC s portfolio. We expect the US revenues to post 20% CAGR (in US$ terms) over FY13-15E. LPC s Para IV - therapy focus : LPC s para IV pipeline highlights therapy focus with OC s in FY10 followed by Opthal s in FY12. We expect Opthal s to drive the next leg as OC s peak in FY15/16E. FINANCIAL SUMMARY YE Mar (Rs mn) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Net Sales 68,204 93, , ,284 Growth (%) EBIDTA 14,447 21,778 28,778 32,897 EBIDTA margin (%) Net profit 7,717 13,025 16,452 19,105 EPS (Rs.) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA RoE (%) HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
2 US deep dive Approval run rate picking up No of ANDA filed No of approvals FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research New launches offset branded/tricor(g) weakness US$mn FY13 FY14E FY15E US Branded Base US generics Tricor OC's Trizivir,Niaspan, Triliprix Other new launches US generics Total US revenues Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Generics to drive US growth 1, Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research US a key driver Branded US$mn Generics US will continue to remain a key driver as product approvals inch up in the coming years. With more than 50% of its pipeline awaiting approval, we expect US generics to post CAGR of 30% over FY13-15E. The 2HFY14 expected launches, Trizivir, Triliprix and Niaspan generic, would offset the loss from Tricor generic, which is expected from last quarter of this fiscal. We expect US (Branded + generic) to post CAGR of 20% over FY13-15E FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Page 2
3 Opthal s lined up post OC s OC's 5 Opthal's 18 CVS, OAB, 1 Opthal, 1 9 CNS, Others, 3 OAB, 1 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14* Opthalmic filings over the last two years Brand Year Mkt size US$mn Zymar FY12 0 Zymaxid FY12 60 Vigamox FY Lumigan FY Acualr FY12 NA Moxeza FY13 NA, *as of July 2013 Para IV s filings show therapy focus LPC has been ramping up its para IV filings since FY10, particularly focusing on low competitive therapies Apart from para III s, LPC s had strategically filed para IV s in the OC segment way back in FY10 and the same have started commercializing over the last six quarters. On the similar lines, we expect Opthal revenues to start ticking in post FY15, shifting gears from OC s, as it peaks in FY15/16E. Opthals is a $3.0bn opportunity in the US with limited player in the market. Lupin plans to file for the entire product range in the Opthal segment. We believe, Opthals could potentially add ~US$100mn revenues at peak. Other highlights LPC plans to enter the controlled substance space through inorganic route in the US. Though indicated in the call, there has not been any change in the hedging strategy. LPC continues to hedge 30-35% of its net exposure. I rom continued to see pressure on CRAMS, however Japan overall, would comfortably post 12% CAGR over FY13-15E. In spite of higher 2HFY13 for domestic formulations, LPC remain confident of mid double digit growth for the segment. Page 3
4 INCOME STATEMENT Year ending March (Rs mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Net Sales 56,478 68,204 93, , ,284 Growth (%) Material Expenses 22,379 26,039 35,480 43,406 50,357 Employee Expenses 7,677 9,695 12,488 15,235 18,587 Other Operating Expenses 16,353 20,648 25,745 30,087 34,522 Operating Profits 10,068 11,822 19,981 27,021 30,819 Operating Profit Margin (%) Other Operating Income 1,712 2,626 1,797 1,758 2,078 EBIDTA 11,780 14,447 21,778 28,778 32,897 EBIDTA (%) EBIDTA Growth (%) Other Income Depreciation 1,712 2,275 3,322 3,507 3,901 EBIT 10,290 12,315 18,734 25,588 29,445 Interest Forex gain/loss PBT 9,945 11,961 18,324 25,234 29,086 Tax 1,169 3,086 5,842 8,454 9,598 PAT 8,776 8,875 12,482 16,781 19,488 Minority Interest (168) (199) (263) (329) (382) EO items (net of tax) APAT 8,048 7,717 13,025 16,452 19,105 APAT Growth (%) 19.9 (4.1) EPS EPS Growth (%) 19.9 (4.1) BALANCE SHEET Year ending March (Rs mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital Reserves 31,918 39,236 51,147 64,968 80,916 Total Shareholders Funds 32,811 40,129 52,042 65,861 81,810 Minority Interest ,306 Long Term Debt 3,713 5,921 4,377 2, Short Term Debt 7,911 10,470 7,268 7,632 8,013 Total Debt 11,624 16,391 11,645 10,102 8,984 Deferred Taxes 1,792 1,910 2,337 2,968 3,549 Long Term Provisions & Others 933 1,528 1,626 1,417 1,588 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 47,675 60,681 68,244 81,272 97,236 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 17,313 22,457 24,929 26,418 27,764 CWIP 4,904 4,437 3,107 2,747 3,021 Goodwill 3,255 5,040 5,073 5,073 5,073 Investments, LT Loans & Advances 3,601 4,465 4,599 4,413 4,498 Inventories 12,000 17,327 19,489 26,955 31,272 Debtors 12,556 17,800 21,870 26,321 31,272 Cash & Equivalents 4,202 4,025 4,349 8,221 14,248 ST Loans & Advances, Others 3,412 4,272 5,723 6,296 6,925 Total Current Assets 32,170 43,423 51,431 67,794 83,716 Creditors 9,930 13,793 15,431 20,217 21,384 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 3,639 5,349 5,464 4,956 5,452 Total Current Liabilities 13,569 19,142 20,895 25,173 26,836 Net Current Assets 18,601 24,282 30,536 42,621 56,880 Misc Expenses & Others TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 47,675 60,681 68,244 81,272 97,236 Page 4
5 CASH FLOW Year ending March (Rs mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Reported PAT 8,776 8,875 13,404 16,781 19,488 Non-operating & EO items (193) 59 (24) (211) (301) PAT from Operations 8,583 8,934 13,380 16,570 19,186 Interest expenses Depreciation 1,712 2,275 3,322 3,507 3,901 Working Capital Change (552) (5,858) (5,931) (8,212) (8,233) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 10,087 5,706 11,181 12,219 15,213 Capex (4,544) (8,737) (4,497) (4,636) (5,521) Free cash flow (FCF) 5,543 (3,031) 6,685 7,583 9,692 Inves and other non curr assets (3,142) (864) (133) 186 (85) INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (7,686) (9,600) (4,630) (4,451) (5,606) Share capital Issuance (2) 0 Debt Issuance 225 4,767 (4,746) (1,543) (1,118) Interest expenses 1,283 1,047 1, Dividend (345) (355) (410) (354) (359) others (1,575) (1,684) (2,109) (2,631) (3,157) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (408) 3,776 (6,251) (4,107) (3,882) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 1,993 (118) 300 3,662 5,725 Non-operating and EO items 193 (59) Closing Cash & Equivalents 4,202 4,025 4,349 8,221 14,248 KEY RATIOS FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM EBITDA Margin APAT Margin RoE ROIC RoCE EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) Asset Turnover (x) Inventory (days) Debtors (days) Payables (days) Cash Conversion Cycle (days) Debt/EBITDA (x) Net D/E Interest Coverage PER SHARE DATA EPS (Rs/sh) CEPS (Rs/sh) DPS (Rs/sh) BV (Rs/sh) VALUATION P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA OCF/EV (%) FCF/EV (%) 1.3 (0.9) FCFE/EV(%) 1.4 (0.8) Dividend Yield (%) Page 5
6 Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HDFC Securities Ltd or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purposes with out prior written approval of HDFC Securities Ltd. Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HDFC Securities Ltd may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments. HDFC Securities and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions. HDFC Securities Ltd, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. HDFC Securities Ltd and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organisations described in this report. HDFC securities Institutional Equities Trade World, C Wing, 8 th Floor, Kamala Mills Compound, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai Board : hdfcsec-research@hdfcsec.com Page 6
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INDUSTRY PHARMA CMP (as on 23 Oct 2018) Rs 651 Target Price Rs 980 Nifty 10,245 Sensex 34,134 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg JUBILANT IN No. of Shares (mn) 159 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 104/1,412 6m avg traded value
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INDUSTRY AUTOS CMP (as on 08 May 2018) Rs 268 Target Price Rs 298 Nifty 10,718 Sensex 35,216 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg EXID IN No. of Shares (mn) 850 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 227/3,390 6m avg traded value
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INDUSTRY CAPITAL GOODS CMP (as on 19 May 2017) Rs 352 Target Price Rs 403 Nifty 9,428 Sensex 30,465 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg /Reuters KPP IN No. of Shares (mn) 153 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 54/836 6m avg traded
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INDUSTRY PHARMA CMP (as on 27 Jul 2017) Rs 2,621 Target Price Rs 2,275 Nifty 10,021 Sensex 32,383 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg DRRD IN No. of Shares (mn) 166 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 435/6,778 6m avg traded value
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INDUSTRY OIL & GAS CMP (as on 1 Aug 2018) Rs 947 Target Price Rs 1,292 Nifty 11,346 Sensex 37,522 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg MAHGL IN No. of Shares (mn) 99 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 94/1,367 6m avg traded value
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RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 18 AUG 2018 Brigade Enterprises INDUSTRY REAL ESTATE CMP (as on 17 Aug 2018) Rs 192 Target Price Rs 299 Nifty 11,471 Sensex 37,948 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg BRGD IN No. of Shares (mn)
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INDUSTRY REAL ESTATE CMP (as on 13 Nov 2018) Rs 177 Target Price Rs 306 Nifty 10,583 Sensex 35,144 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg BRGD IN No. of Shares (mn) 136 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 24/333 6m avg traded value
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INDUSTRY APPLIANCES CMP (as on 22 May 18) Rs 1,460 Target Price Rs 1,983 Nifty 10,537 Sensex 34,651 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg SYML IN No. of Shares (mn) 70 MCap (Rsbn)/(US$ mn) 102/1,501 6m avg traded value
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INDUSTRY EXCHANGES CMP (as on 14 May 2015) Rs 1,053 Target Price Rs 1,530 Nifty 8,224 Sensex 27,206 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg MCX IN No. of Shares (mn) 51 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 54/844 6m avg traded value
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INDUSTRY CEMENT CMP (as on 24 July 2017) Rs 268 Target Price Rs 220 Nifty 9,966 Sensex 32,246 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg/Reuters ACEM IN No. of Shares (mn) 1,986 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 531/8,273 6m avg traded
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INDUSTRY NBFCs CMP (as on 26 Apr 2017) Rs 676 Target Price Rs 600 Nifty 9,352 Sensex 30,133 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg LICHF IN No. of Shares (mn) 505 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 341/5,319 6m avg traded value
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INDUSTRY IT CMP (as on 16 Aug 217) Rs 16 Target Price Rs 2 Nifty 9,897 Sensex 31,771 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg/Reuters SSOF IN No. of Shares (mn) 15 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 17/262 6m avg traded value (Rs
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INDUSTRY Life Insurance CMP (as on 30 May 2018) Rs 485 Target Price Rs 665 Nifty 10,614 Sensex 34,906 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg MAXF IN No. of Shares (mn) 268 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 130/1,924 6m avg traded
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INDUSTRY AUTOS CMP (as on 20 July 2017) Rs 2,819 Target Price Rs 3,296 Nifty 9,873 Sensex 31,904 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg BJAUT IN No. of Shares (mn) 289 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 816 / 12,658 6m avg traded
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INDUSTRY AGROCHEMICAL CMP (as on 29 May 2017) Rs 648 Target Price Rs 710 Nifty 9,605 Sensex 31,109 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg INST IN No. of Shares (mn) 21 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 13/208 6m avg traded value
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INDUSTRY APPLIANCES CMP (as on 26 Oct 2018) Rs 195 Target Price Rs 280 Nifty 10,030 Sensex 33,349 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg CROMPTON IN No. of Shares (mn) 627 MCap (Rsbn)/(US$ mn) 123/1,670 6m avg traded
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INDUSTRY INSURANCE CMP (as on 24 Apr 2018) Rs 418 Target Price Rs 515 Nifty 10,614 Sensex 34,617 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg IPRU IN No. of Shares (mn) 1,435 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 600/9,054 6m avg traded
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INDUSTRY FMCG CMP (as on 27 26 Jul 2018) 2017) Rs 287 289 Target Price Rs 353 367 Nifty 10,021 11,167 Sensex 32,383 36,985 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg ITC IN No. of Shares (mn) 12,161 12,218 MCap (Rs bn)/(us$
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