Coal India. Tough times BUY COMPANY UPDATE 22 AUG CMP (as on 21 Aug 17) Rs 238 Target Price Rs 300

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1 COMPANY UPDATE 22 AUG 2017 Coal India BUY INDUSTRY MINING CMP (as on 21 Aug 17) Rs 238 Target Price Rs 300 Nifty 9,754 Sensex 31,259 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg COAL IN No. of Shares (mn) 6,207 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,480/23,153 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,230 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 341 / 234 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (13.5) (25.2) (28.5) Relative (%) (16.1) (33.9) (39.8) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters FIs & Local MFs FPIs 6.40 Public & Others 3.25 Source : BSE Ankur Kulshrestha, CFA ankur.kulshrestha@hdfcsec.com Meera Midha meera.midha@hdfcsec.com Tough times Coal India s (CIL) recent performance has been uninspiring: flat offtake, lowest FSA realisations since 3QFY12 despite prices hikes, and weak e- auction premia. This has weighed on the numbers with LTM EBITDA down 27% and adjusted PAT (ex- OBR provisions) down 25% YoY. Coal offtake should improve hereon, given restocking demand from power plants. Third party sampling for 100% of its dispatches, lower taxation and continued discounts given to landed parity prices should ensure bottoming out of realisations. CIL witnessed strong volumes over FY15-16, as it restocked power plants from five days (Sep- 2014) to ~20 days (July-2015). Flattish power demand thereafter led to poor growth offtake. Current low stocks at CEA-monitored power plants (11 days) should help CIL revert to strong volume growth, some of which is already visible in its numbers (July volumes up 6.9% YoY). FSA pricing has suffered (1QFY18: Rs 1,201/t, lowest since 3QFY12), primarily on account of grade slippages. Coal Controller downgraded 177 mines by 1-2 grades for FY17, and 1QFY18 numbers reflected the full impact of this. Further, ~100% third party sampling being done now should imply FSA prices bottoming out. The switch to GST led to a reduction in taxation from ~12% to 5%. This implies a reduction of ~4p/ 000 Kcal (~5.6%), which has been passed on to customers. CIL may hike prices owing to this elbow room provided by lower GST rates. We have built in similar hikes for FY19, but they can be implemented sooner. Across fuel categories, CIL s coal continues to trade at a considerable discount to alternatives. Both imported coal and petcoke (used mostly by cement companies) continue to be expensive. Chinese coal imports have surged in recent times, driving international coal prices, while strong demand from cement companies has kept petcoke prices high. This will benefit CIL in both off take and pricing, especially in e-auctions. CIL trades at 5.7/5.1x on our estimates, which build in 6.6/0.7% volume/pricing CAGR for FY Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 300 (7.0x June 19 EV/EBITDA). Key risk to our thesis is from a higher wage settlement than what CIL has provisioned so far. Financial Summary (Consolidated) (Rs bn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Sales EBITDA PAT Diluted EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV / EBITDA (x) RoE (%) HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

2 Strong dispatch growth in FY16 was driven by restocking at power plants. Current spurt could again be driven by similar reasons, even as power generation growth continues to disappoint. Recent media reports have commented on low coal availability at power plants. Comparative Growth Rates (YoY%) 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% (5.0%) (10.0%) Power Generation CIL Despatches Coal Stock At CEA Monitored Plants (Days) Coal stock (days) Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Source: DIPP, Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: CEA, HDFC sec Inst Research Amongst the large subsidiaries, SECL and NCL have delivered strong growth, driving CIL s offtake. MCL, potentially the largest subsidiary, continues to struggle Subsidiary-wise Production And Offtake January YTD Subsidiary Production (mt) Growth (%) Off-take (mt) Growth (%) Production (mt) Growth (%) Off-take (mt) Growth (%) ECL 2.39 (5.5) 2.91 (13.1) (0.8) (10.2) BCCL 1.97 (27.6) 2.49 (12.6) 8.81 (24.2) (11.7) CCL 3.11 (17.1) (20.2) NCL WCL SECL MCL (1.2) (6.7) (5.3) (7.8) NEC (50.0) CIL (0.3) (4.1) Page 2

3 FSA realisations have dipped to lowest levels since 1QFY12. FSA Realisations 1,500 Rs/t FSA E-Auction Realisations 3,500 Rs/t E-auction 1,400 3,000 1,300 2,500 1,200 2,000 1,100 1,500 This is despite price hikes (~26/12% for power/others) taken in May 2013 and May ,000 Base Prices For G10 Grade ( Kcal/Kg) Rs/t 1, QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 Jan-12 Jan-13 Power Jan-14 Jan % Jan-16 1,000 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Base Prices For G10 Grade ( Kcal/Kg) Rs/t 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1, Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Non-Power Jan-14 Jan % Jan-16 Effective Date Hikes 27 Feb 2011 Blended price hike of 14%. Included a 140% hike in the price of A/B grade coal and 26-30% hike in other grades for non power customers only 01 Jan 2012 Switch to GCV based pricing from UHV based pricing, while broadly maintaining the pricing for all categories of customers 27 May 2013 Hiked prices across lower categories by ~10% 13 Nov 2013 Increased transportation to charges due to under-recovery of transportation costs 30 May 2016 Hiked prices by ~6% across categories Page 3

4 CIL s pricing continues to remain the most attractive at both ends of the calorific value spectrum. The discount vs landed parity has only widened off late, since petcoke and international coal prices continue to remain high Competitiveness Vs Imported Coal (High Grade) Rs/mn cal Petcoke Domestic SA - RB1 (CFR, India) Domestic coal (CIL, G4) Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Pricing includes respective levies Competitiveness Vs Imported Coal (Lower Grade) Rs/mn cal Indonesia GAR Domestic coal (CIL, G11) Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Lignite (GMDC, Mata-No-Madh) Taxation on coal has been reduced to 5% vs earlier effective rates of 12-13%. The implied reduction in pithead prices, including levies, is ~6%. This is the elbow room CIL has to hike prices in the future. Pithead Prices Of CIl Coal (Including Levies) Grade G4 G10 Pre-GST Post GST Pre-GST Post GST Kcal/Kg (Mid Point) 6,250 6,250 4,450 4,450 Base Price 3,000 3, Royalty 14% MMDR Cess 2% SED Assessable prices 3,438 3,438 1,130 1,130 Central Excise 6% GST 5% Clean Energy Cess Total Prices 4,045 4,010 1,598 1,586 VAT 5% Total Price 4,247 4,010 1,678 1,586 Rs/mn Kcal % Change (5.6%) (5.8%) Note: Clean Energy Cess is now charged under the head GST Compensation Cess Page 4

5 A string of poor results as LTM EBITDA declined by ~27%, while APAT (adjusted for OBR) declined by 25% Quarterly Financials Snapshot (Rs mn) 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 Net Sales 177, , , , ,043 Employee costs 76,465 84,069 82,318 85,284 80,716 Stores and spares 14,869 14,892 17,666 22,210 14,806 Contractual expenses 28,006 23,666 33,681 37,688 30,980 Other Operating Expenses 19,960 23,479 26,225 47,986 22,148 Changes to Inventory 40 7,169 (2,413) (17,177) 8,817 Operating Income 38,621 3,176 39,567 48,248 26,578 % Margin Other Operating Income 6,258 5,675 7,102 7,477 7,574 EBITDA 44,879 8,851 46,669 55,725 34,151 Other Income/(expense) 11,306 14,125 11,167 18,558 12,066 Interest Cost ,107 1,151 1,210 Depreciation 6,672 6,921 7,011 8,498 6,699 OB Removal adjustment 2,331 1,425 8,124 14,843 (1,069) PBT 46,293 13,661 41,595 49,791 39,377 Tax 15,641 7,660 12,754 15,606 15,860 APAT 30,653 6,002 28,841 34,185 23,517 E/o (adj for tax) (7,006) 0 RPAT 30,653 6,002 28,841 27,179 23,517 APAT + OBR 32,983 7,426 36,965 49,028 22,449 Page 5

6 CIL has seen FSA realisations decline sharply in 1QFY18, driven by grade slippages. E-Auction volumes continue to be healthy, while realisations still need to catch up with landed parity pricing Per Tonne Analysis 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 Production (mt) Sales (mt) FSA e-auction % of sales 15% 16% 18% 19% 20% Washed coal Ending inventory (mn T) Realisations (Rs/T) 1,336 1,350 1,385 1,480 1,340 FSA 1,239 1,292 1,289 1,376 1,201 e-auction 1,570 1,348 1,564 1,611 1,586 Premium over FSAs 27% 4% 21% 17% 32% Washed coal 2,226 2,269 2,351 2,379 2,366 EBITDA (Rs/t) Page 6

7 Valuation Matrix Company MCap (Rs bn) CMP (Rs) TP (Rs) Reco P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E Coal India 1, BUY MOIL BUY GMDC BUY Source: Company, Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research, Prices as at August 11, 2017 close We build in flattish (FY16 to 20) FSA pricing, while building in some recovery in E-Auction prices from current levels. Key Assumptions Year Ending March FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Production (mt) Sales (mt) FSA E-auction Washed Coal + Other Byproducts Ending Inventory (mn T) Realisations (Rs/T) 1,418 1,397 1,346 1,427 1,428 FSA 1,311 1,301 1,223 1,291 1,291 E-auction 1,858 1,536 1,589 1,743 1,743 Washed Coal 2,393 3,023 3,116 3,190 3,268 Employee Costs/t Outsourcing Cost/t Other Costs/t EBITDA/T (Rs) Page 7

8 Offtake Growth Remains Weak Coal production mnt Off take E-Auction Pricing Recovers From Bottom Blended realisations FSA E-auction Rs/t 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1, ,000 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 Weak FSA Volumes Have Weighed On Offtake FSA E-Auction Washed coal Others Wage Hike Provisioning Driving Costs Higher Rs/t Employee costs/t Contractual exp/t mnt ,800 1,350 Other costs/t EBITDA/t QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 Page 8

9 Income Statement Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Revenues 755, , , , ,281 Growth % 4.9 (0.1) Employee Expenses 301, , , , ,719 Contractual expenses 111, , , , ,822 Materials expenses 55,956 57,253 78,430 74,588 69,948 Other operating expenses 96, , , , ,519 Operating profits 190, ,581 97, , ,272 Operating Profit Margin (%) Other operating income 24,893 27,540 33,059 37,103 41,643 EBITDA 215, , , , ,915 EBITDA % EBITDA Growth % 1.5 (30.7) (12.2) Depreciation 28,259 29,101 35,257 42,680 48,961 Overburden removal adjustment 28,114 26,722 20,042 20,042 20,042 EBIT 158,856 93,298 75, , ,912 Other Income (Incl EO Items) 59,404 55,156 40,917 39,540 38,588 Interest 3,862 4,117 1,000 1,000 1,000 PBT 214, , , , ,500 Tax (Incl Deferred Tax) 71,719 51,660 38,145 58,646 63,855 RPAT 142,679 92,678 77, , ,645 EO Loss/Profit (Net of Tax) (2) APAT 142,681 92,678 77, , ,645 APAT Growth (%) 4.0 (35.0) (16.4) EPS EPS Growth (%) 3.9 (34.6) (15.6) Balance Sheet As at March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital 63,164 62,074 62,074 62,074 62,074 Reserves 285, , , , ,567 Total Shareholders Funds 348, , , , ,641 Minority Interest 1,048 3,459 3,459 3,459 3,459 Long Term Debt 2,631 2,948 2,948 2,948 2,948 Short Term Debt 9,357 27,197 27,197 27,197 27,197 Total Debt 11,988 30,145 30,145 30,145 30,145 Deferred Taxes (20,445) (27,328) (27,328) (27,328) (27,328) Long Term Provisions & Others 462, , , , ,418 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 803, , , , ,335 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 220, , , , ,179 CWIP 62, , , , ,604 Investments LT Loans and Advances 89,813 95,560 95,560 95,560 95,560 Total Non-current Assets 373, , , , ,449 Inventories 424, , , , ,468 Debtors 75,692 89,453 73,982 83,873 89,684 Other Current Assets 114, , , , ,309 Cash & Equivalents 76,158 85,622 85,531 85,531 85,531 Total Current Assets 690, , , , ,992 Creditors 32,972 39,002 36,791 41,710 44,600 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 227, , , , ,491 Total Current Liabilities 260, , , , ,091 Net Current Assets 430, , , , ,902 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 803, , , , ,335 Page 9

10 Cash Flow Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Reported PBT 214, , , , ,500 Non-operating & EO items (50,165) (37,435) (31,675) (30,298) (29,346) Interest expenses 3,862 4,117 1,000 1,000 1,000 Depreciation 63,346 69,506 74,132 81,555 87,836 Working Capital Change (21,772) 59,792 14,930 (11,913) (5,601) Tax Paid (78,754) (89,427) (38,145) (58,646) (63,855) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 130, , , , ,533 Capex (90,384) (85,000) (85,000) (65,000) (65,000) Free cash flow (FCF) 40,531 65,890 50,831 94, ,533 Investments (33) Non-operating Income 50,165 37,435 31,675 30,298 29,346 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (40,252) (47,565) (53,325) (34,702) (35,547) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 29,410 (7,612) Interest expenses (3,862) (4,117) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) FCFE (14,704) (59,294) (54,325) (35,702) (36,547) Share Capital Issuance 0 (47,003) Dividend (207,407) (139,659) (92,934) (142,882) (148,969) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (181,859) (198,391) (93,934) (143,882) (149,969) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (91,196) (95,066) (11,428) (19,172) (1,983) EO Items / Others 849 6,882 Closing Cash & Equivalents 424, , , , ,468 Key Ratios FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E PROFITABILITY (%) EBITDA Margin APAT Margin RoE RoIC N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M RoCE EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) Asset Turnover (x) Inventory (days) Debtors (days) Payables (days) Cash Conversion Cycle (days) Debt/EBITDA (x) N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M Net D/E N/M N/M N/M N/M N/M Interest Coverage PER SHARE DATA EPS (Rs/sh) CEPS (Rs/sh) DPS (Rs/sh) BV (Rs/sh) VALUATION P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA OCF/EV (%) FCF/EV (%) FCFE/Market cap (%) (1.0) (3.9) (3.6) (2.4) (2.4) Dividend Yield (%) N/M: Not Meaningful Page 10

11 RECOMMENDATION HISTORY Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Coal India Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 TP Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Date CMP Reco Target 14-Sep BUY Dec BUY Feb BUY Jul BUY Aug BUY 300 Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period Page 11

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