Steel Focus: Summary ASEAN steel Industry from SEAISI Conference 2010

Transcription

1 Steel Focus: Summary ASEAN steel Industry from SEAISI Conference 2010 Indonesia In 2009, GDP expanded by 4.5%. An economic expansion was due to the stimulus economic structure in the country which depends mainly on domestic consumption and investment rather than international trading. Trade balance showed a surplus of 19,600 million USD in 2009 and current account balance registered 1.9% of GDP. In 2010, GDP growth is forecasted at 5.2%, while trade balance is expected to be surplus by 32,600 million USD and the inflation rate is at 6.3%. Government sets deficit budget policy at 1.4% of total GDP. Manufacturing sector expanded 2.6% in 2009 and is projected to grow by 3.1% in Construction sector rose by 7.2% in 2009 and is forecasted to grow by 7.3% in Expansion rate of manufacturing sector at less than 4% since 2007 has a negative impact on steel consumption momentum. Capacity utilization of flat product was more than 55% in 2009, HRC producers operated at high capacity utilization rate of 78%, while the capacity utilization rate for CRC and TP was lower at 58% and 68%, respectively. Zinc coated and pipe production accounted for less than 30% of total capacity. In long steel product, capacity utilization of billet, rebar and section were less than 50%, but wire rod was approximately at 60%. Overall steel consumption was 6.96 million tonnes, a 17% drop compared to Zinc coated steel sheet and tin plate steel sheet faced a relatively sharp slump at 23% and 25%, respectively when compared to other sectors. HRC and CRC demand declined by 15% and long steel product demand dipped by 11%. There is no new investment reported, but the progress of projects invested a few years ago as follow 1) Mini BF plant construction of PT MJIS with 0.35 million tonnes capacity of Rotary Kiln technology and it is expected to start production in 2012; 2) PT Indofero project has invested on Mini BF 0.5 million tonnes and 3) Moderninzation of ironmaking, steelmaking and hot rolling lines for PT Krakatau Steel which will be completed at the end of

2 Malaysia Malaysia s Economy contracted by 1.7% in The highest decrease of economic growth rate was in the first quarter of 2009 at 6.2%, but it has been recovered after the government injected a lot of money via economic stimulation programs. GDP growth in 2010 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5.5% and the inflation rate would surge to 2% 2.5%. Public investment will increase by 9.3%, from the 12.9% growth rate in On the contrary, private investment is expected to register only 0.7% growth rate. Overall steel demand declined by 9.4% to 7.5 million tonnes in 2009, 3.76 million tonnes of that was for long steel product (drop by 1.5%) and 3.74 million tonnes was for flat steel product (drop by 16.1%). In 2010, market demand may rise between 10% and 12%. Billet output dropped by 13% to 4 million tonnes in 2009, 0.55 million tonnes of that amount was for export, the balance was used domestically. Rebar production dropped 23% to 1.78 million tonnes, and consumption contracted by 30% to 1.5 million tonnes in Wire rod production and consumption surged slightly to 1.16 and 1.09 million tonnes, respectively. Hot rolled coil output declined by 27% to 1.2 million tonnes, consumption slumped at 19% to 1.6 million tonnes, while import recorded 0.65 million tonnes and most of the sizes and grades of imported steel cannot be produced locally. Cold rolled coil output contracted by 16% to 0.62 million tonnes and consumption declined by 7% to 1.25 million tonnes. Import was 0.65 million tonnes and the export was not significant at 24,000 tonnes. Malaysia has conducted three major investment projects in steel sector. 1) Ann Joo (former of Malayawata Steel) is going to finish its 0.5 million tonnes Mini BF construction phase. It is expected to start operation within the end of It plans to charge hot metal from the blast furnace to EAF to produce billet for rebar and wire rod. 2) Eastern Steel Sdn Bhd is going to construct 0.7 million tonnes of blast furnace to produce steel slab. It is planned to start operation in ) Two of EG plants POSCO Galvanizing and Nippon E Galvanizing are in full operation of EG steel sheet production with total capacity at 0.25 million tonnes. Malaysian Steel Companies and related government agencies are eyeing on unfair trade such as dumping or subsidy cases after the government began the liberalization policy, including import tariff cut and the cancelation of permit license. 2

3 Singapore The GDP contracted by 2% in 2009, the first drop since 2003 due to a direct negative impact from manufacturing sector, especially electronics and high technology goods which had a significant drop in new orders. Moreover, US subprime crisis has strongly affected Singapore s economy since the country is one of Asian financial hub. Biomedical product is the only sector among other manufacturing sector registered a positive growth rate in Private construction faced a sharp drop, but public construction grew up, resulting from the big projects which have been in operation since a few years ago. Total steel demand contracted by 23% from 3.64 million tonnes in 2008 to 2.8 million tonnes in Natsteel s the only steel producer in Singapore production dropped by 8.4%. Import and export showed a significant decline by 35% and 43%. Ratio of long steel and flat steel was 66:34. Overall economy is projected to grow by 7% 9%, supporting by recovery in international trade and financial sector. Total steel demand is projected to expand by 10% 15% to million tonnes. Vietnam Macroeconomics performance in 2009 was better than Though GDP growth rate was lower in 2009 at 5.3%, from 6.2% in 2008, the inflation rate was 6.2%, compared to 19.9% in The continuity in trade deficit has led Vietnam government to depreciate its currency to average 18,465 Dong per USD, compared to 16,110 and 16,485 Dong per USD in GDP growth is projected to 6.5% in Manufacturing and construction sector is expected to grow by 7%. Foreign Direct Investment will recover slightly to 22,000 25,000 million USD in 2010, compared to 20,000 million USD in However, the figure is still lower than 2008 level which was 64,000 million USD. Steel billet output was 2.7 million tonnes in 2009, up from 2.25 million tonnes in A significant increase of billet demand was well served by import which was 2.4 million tonnes. It is expected that import will increase in 2010 amidst the new incoming capacities built up since demand is still growing substantially. Overall steel consumption surged to million tonnes in 2009, up 34% from 8.77 million tonnes in

4 Long steel product consumption was 5.47 million tonnes in 2009, up 25.4% from Major imported products were wire rod and steel section. Steel bar import was 76,307 tonnes in 2009 and most of that should be merchant bar for machinery part. Even though wire rod production was up to a million tonnes in % growth rate from 2008 it was not sufficient for domestic demand and need to import as much as 0.5 million tonnes. Vietnam has no local hot rolled coil production, it has only three of cold rolled coil plants that are CRM Phu My, Lotus Joint Stock Company and VG pipe company with total output of 0.63 million tonnes in In 2010, the CRC output will be double to 1.2 million tonnes as a new capacity of 1.2 million tonnes from POSCO Vietnam comes in this year. According to Vietnam Steel Association, 48% of capacity will be used for export, and 52% of capacity will be used to serve local demand. POSCO Vietnam will be one of the major competitors for Thai s cold rolled producers, namely Siam United Steel (1995) and Thai Cold Rolled Steel Sheet when its operation fully completes within Thailand could be one of the export targets for POSCO Vietnam in the near future. Projects were put in operation in 2009 Company Product Capacity (t/y) Place ShengLi Vietnam Billet 500,000 Thai Binh province Thai Hung Co. Billet 200,000 Hai Duong province Viet Y Steel Co., Jsc Billet 400,000 Hai Phong City HPS Co., Ltd Billet 120,000 Hai Phong City Thai Binh Duong Co. Billet 120,000 Da Nang provice Thep Viet Steel Co. Hoa Phat Steel Wire rods & bars Wire rods & bars 450,000 Ba Ria Vung Tau province 350,000 Hai Duong province POSCO Vietnam CRC 1,200,000 Ba Ria Vung Tau province Projects is going to operate in 2010 Company Product Projects Place Hoa Phat Steel 350,000t/y billet 370m 3 BF Hai Duong province Van Loi Steel Co., Jsc 480,000t/y pig iron 2 x 230m 3 BF Hai Phong City Dinh Vu Steel Co., Jsc 240,000t/y pig iron 230m 3 BF Hai Phong City Thong Nhat Co. CRC 200,000t/y Ba Ria Vung Tau province VG pipe Co. Wire rods & bars 360,000t/y Vinh Phuc provice 4

5 Hoa Sen Group Metallic & color coated 400,000t/y CGL production line Ba Ria Vung Tau province ShengLi Vietnam Wire rods & bars 600,000t/y Thai Binh province Da Nang Y Steel Wire rods & bars 300,000t/y Da Nang province Overall steel consumption in 2010 is expected to increase by 10% 12% to million tonnes. At present, import tariff of billet, long steel product, cold rolled sheet, metal coated sheet and color coated sheet in 2010 is 7%, 15%, 7%, 15%, 13%, respectively. Philippines Overall economy grew slightly at 0.9% in 2009, compared to 7% in 2007 and 3.8% in The GNP increased because incomes from Pilipino workers have expanded continually. The projection of GDP in 2010 is 2.6% 3.6%. In 2009, overall steel consumption in the country was 3.47 million tonnes, slightly went up by 1% from Total long steel consumption in 2009 was 2.2 million tonnes, up from 2 million tonnes in Total flat steel consumption dropped from 1.5 million tonnes in 2008 to 1.3 million tonnes in % of total consumption was for construction, the rest of 14% and 4% were for metal fabrication and packaging application. Because of the bright outlook in construction sector in 2009, long steel product output rose dramatically by 16% and pipe and tube production surged by 30%. Construction sector saw an expansion path in 2010 as a result of a continuous investment in mass transportation and commitment from government to enhance lowincome housing project. Moreover, construction on private residential projects and commercial building will continue to expand in