Vertu Motors. Medium-term potential not recognised. Impressive figures. Outlook remains positive. Strong cash performance

Transcription

1 Vertu Motors Medium-term potential not recognised Interim results Retailers (automotive) While the VW situation may have undermined short-term market confidence about the motor retail sector, industry dynamics continue to favour the larger dealership groups. Vertu, with its strong balance sheet and proven ability to secure and improve acquisitions, has a potential that we suggest is not recognised in its current rating. Year end Revenue ( m) PBT* ( m) EPS* (p) 02/14 1, /15 2, /16e 2, /17e 2, Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments. DPS (p) P/E (x) Yield (%) 19 October 2015 Price 70.0p Market cap 239m Net cash ( m) at 31 August Shares in issue 341.0m Free float 97% Code VTU Primary exchange AIM Secondary exchange N/A Share price performance Impressive figures Vertu has produced another impressive set of figures, with interim results slightly ahead of market expectations, showing revenue up by 14% to 1.24bn and adjusted pre-tax profits by 28% to 17.0m. The group has responded effectively to the competitive challenges caused by a forced market and, although there was modest slippage in gross margins, there was a 21bp improvement at the operating level. As a measure of confidence, the interim dividend is raised by 29%; we have lifted our financial year pre-tax profit estimate from 24.5m to 25.4m. Outlook remains positive We see little change in the trading climate over the next 18 months the competitive situation will remain challenging, but the fragmented nature of the UK motor retailing sector will continue to provide numerous opportunities for a positive management team to move forward. Meanwhile, with some 40% of revenue generated by businesses acquired in the past four years, there is considerable potential from the group s business improvement strategy. We have raised our next year adjusted pre-tax target by 1.0m to 27.5m. Strong cash performance Net funds increased by 16.4m to 32.1m, helped by shifts in OEM inventory pipelines, leading to a drop in working capital requirements. With strong cash flow and substantial available facilities, Vertu is well able to finance immediate working capital needs and an ongoing acquisition programme. Valuation: Higher rating justified The ratings of all five UK quoted motor dealership group cover a narrow band of between 11.0x and 12.4x prospective CY15 EPS; Vertu at 12.0x is in the middle of the range. We believe that the medium-term potential from recent acquisitions and the scope for further earnings-enhancing acquisitions justifies a higher rating. % 1m 3m 12m Abs (2.1) Rel (local) (3.8) week high/low 71.5p 54.0p Business description Vertu Motors is the sixth largest UK motor vehicle retailer. Established in 2006, it is expanding through the completion and subsequent development of a series of acquisitions, initially in volume cars, but now including the premium segment of the market. Next event Trading update February 2016 Analysts Nigel Harrison +44 (0) Roger Johnston +44 (0) Neil Basten +44 (0) industrials@edisongroup.com Edison profile page Vertu Motors is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

2 Interim profits up by 28% Vertu Motors has again responded effectively to a changing trading environment, producing an impressive set of interim figures and prompting a rise in market estimates. Group revenues were ahead by 14.0% to 1,236m, consolidating 5.2% like-for-like growth in its core businesses, defined as those that have been in the group for the whole of the past two years. The rise in gross profits, at 13.4%, indicates a further modest drop in gross margins from 10.65% to 10.59%. The main factor was a narrowing in used car margins, which had been flagged by management some months ago. By contrast, there were slightly higher returns on new vehicles, while there was also continued progress and better returns in the higher-margin aftermarket segment of the business. Figures were also affected by the expansion into premium vehicles, for which there are higher unit prices and profit per vehicle, but at a lower percentage margin. There was a 10% increase in the number of vehicles sold to 81,404, including like-for-like growth of 3.3%. Operational gearing was again the fundamental factor in the profit performance. Operating expenses as a percentage of revenues were reduced by a further 200bp from 9.4% to 9.2%, as the targeted benefits from investment in the recently acquired dealerships (especially those of the past two to three years) came through to the bottom line. Underlying operating profits rose by 33.6% from 13.4m to 17.9m. With interest charges higher, underlying pre-tax profits rose by 27.3% to 17.0m. The increase in adjusted EPS of 28.3% to 3.99p provided substantial cover for a 28.6% rise in the interim dividend to 0.45p. Exhibit 1: Results breakdown Year to February ( m) H116 H115 Change (%) FY15 Revenue New car retail/motability New fleet and commercial Used cars Aftermarket % +13.3% +12.8% +14.1% , , % 2,074.9 Gross profit New car retail/motability New fleet and commercial Used cars Aftermarket % +38.6% +6.6% +14.2% % Operating profit % 22.7 Pre-tax profit % 22.0 Gross margins 10.59% 10.65% 10.99% Operating margins 1.45% 1.24% 1.09% Pre-tax margins 1.38% 1.23% 1.06% Source: Vertu Motors interim statement. Note: Before intangible amortisation, share-based payments and exceptional items. In terms of the dealership network, there were several acquisitions and disposals/closures, leaving the group currently with 119 franchised operations. The principal acquisitions extended the group s JLR representation, adding Land Rover in Bury and Jaguar in Bradford; both fit with JLR s policy of bringing the two marques closer together and extend the group s coverage across Lancashire and Yorkshire. Other transactions involved introducing Skoda (in Darlington) to the portfolio, while the former Suzuki franchise in Mansfield has been refranchised to represent Renault and Dacia. Vertu has also strengthened its position with Nissan in Glasgow, where it is now the sole franchisee the group is now developing a site near the city centre, which will replace the existing South Glasgow dealership and a temporary facility in the north of the city. In addition, the capex programme has led to a number of franchise improvements, particularly supporting certain of its Vauxhall, Ford and VW Vertu Motors 19 October

3 dealerships. Since the end of the trading period, Vertu has spent 12.8m, gaining representation for VW cars, VW light commercials and Audi in Hereford. New cars retail/motability (23% of gross profit) New car retail unit sales increased by 8.6% to 21,079, including 1.2% like-for-like progress. This compares with a 3.1% rise in UK retail registrations and a 1.8% increase in registrations recorded by the OEMs represented by the group. Motability sales rose by 13.4% to 6,010 vehicles. The market continues to be stimulated by the OEMs, offering significant sales incentives (notably attractive financial packages) as they fight for market share. The group again performed well in the Motability sector, with a like-for-like sales increase of 6.0% in unit sales achieved in a market that declined by 0.6%. Six months ago group management had flagged that the battle for market share could result in some margin slippage. However, the group achieved OEM targets across the franchise network, delivering a 4.8% increase in profit per vehicle, with gross margins edging up from 7.26% to 7.33%. The obvious question mark in relation to the immediate future remains the sustainability of the market support from the OEMs, now that other European markets are showing modest signs of recovery. The key factors in this respect are the strength of sterling relative to the euro and the excess manufacturing capacity, which is targeting European markets. The change in the / rate over the past 12 months gives the OEM more flexibility on prices in the UK: a 10,000 car would have generated 12,570 a year ago, but 13,500 today. The group has seen a 3.3% reduction in private new registrations in the key month of September, but margins are holding up well with management indicating record new car profits for the month. Most industry commentators suggest that the new car market will continue at around current levels for the next 18 months. Action taken by management to develop the business should ensure continued profit progress during this period. New fleet/commercial (6% of gross profit) There were contrasting performances between the segments: fleet car volumes fell by 8.5%, reflecting a drop in supply to the daily rental channels; the light commercial vehicle market remained buoyant, with Vertu achieving 24.2% like-for-like volume growth in a market that was up by 16.4%. Overall growth was 15.4% to 18,607 vehicles. With the lost fleet business typically earning the lowest margins, the group delivered an impressive result, with gross profits in this segment up from 5.7m to 7.9m and margins widening from 2.1% to 2.6%. The attraction of this sector to Vertu stems from the relatively low cost base, while sales add volume to help achieve OEM targets and provide some PDI work for the group aftermarket operations. Used cars (32% of gross profit) Used car unit sales rose for the eighth successive half yearly period. The 7.7% increase to 35,708 vehicles, involved the group delivering like-for-like growth of 4.2% in a market that we believe has risen modestly in volume terms. Gross profit per vehicle has slipped back nominally, despite the fact that the average price per vehicle has risen by 4.7%. Gross margins remain healthy at 9.8%, with gross profits up 6.6% year-on-year. Management had indicated the more challenging trading climate in used cars, with the consistent revival in new car registrations over the past three years changing the market dynamics. There is no longer a shortage of vehicles in the up to three years-old range. Moreover, there is increased competition from the new car market, because of the continued attractive finance and increases in self-registrations. Vertu Motors 19 October

4 The group s specialist expertise in this segment of the market points positively to the future the used car returns being delivered on those businesses that have been in the group for several years contrast markedly with the returns from many recent acquisitions. Group skills in the sourcing of vehicles, advising dealerships with appropriate inventory profiles, high-quality staff training and, in particular, carefully structured marketing support, especially on the internet, all point to continued market share growth without relinquishing margin. We expect the group to continue gaining share in the used car market over the medium term and, although margins are unlikely to recover to the higher levels seen over the past two years in the foreseeable future, group disciplines in this segment of the market suggest that they are sustainable at current levels. Aftermarket (39% of gross profit) The performance of the group aftermarket operations (service, accident repair shops, parts, petrol forecourts) remains the most pleasing aspect of the group results. Revenues rose by 14.2% to 93.8m, including like-for-like growth of 3.7%. More significantly, overall aftermarket margins were again lifted from 43.7% to 45.5%, while the key service content (40% of aftermarket revenues) rose by 6.2% on a like-for-like basis, with gross margins lifted from 75.8% to 76.9%. The aftermarket remains the biggest contributor to group gross profits. The key factors remain the effective use of CRM, successful marketing of service plans on new and used car sales, targeting increased sales per customer visit and the growing use of the central telesales team, which is increasingly focused on aftermarket work. Vertu is clearly clawing back business that had previously shifted to the independent sector as vehicles got older, especially past the age of three to four years. In addition, the recovery in new car sales over the past three years has reversed the recent adverse trend in the size of the group s target market. The cumulative number of service plans (excluding OEM plans) is now 81,000, compared with 39,000 two years ago. Last year, the group retained 66% of new car and 41% of used car customers as service clients; this compares with 61% and 35% two years ago. We see the consistent growth in aftermarket revenues continuing in the foreseeable future. Strong cash generation There was an impressive cash performance over the half year to August With a positive movement in working capital ( 17.0m), the group generated 37.6m from operations. Tax, interest and dividend payments absorbed 5.7m, while acquisition and capital expenditure involved a further 15.7m, net of asset disposal proceeds. With a nominal amount generated from the exercise of share options, there was a net 16.4m increase in net funds over the half year; up from 15.7m last February to 32.1m at August In previous years, seasonal factors have tended to favour second-half net working capital movements. We understand that much of the first half improvement related to the impact of shifts in OEM new vehicle pipelines. In this context we prefer to take a conservative view on working capital and assume there may be some slippage during the second half. In addition, management has indicated sharply higher second-half capex, while the group has already spent a further 12.8m on the Hereford acquisition. Our current estimates indicate net funds of up to 10m at February Acquisitions remain firmly on the agenda, with management having indicated that several potential deals are targeted for the second half of the year. The size and timing of such deals are subject to many factors outside management control. However, there are facilities totalling 82.5m and a further uncommitted acquisition facility of 20.0m, in addition to the net funds mentioned above. There are substantial funds to manage both the daily fluctuations in working capital requirements and an active spell of acquisitions, without recourse to the market. Vertu Motors 19 October

5 Estimates increased The message about second-half trading remains quietly confident. In the key month of September, the group delivered a slight reduction in retail new car unit sales. On the other hand, used car and aftermarket operations continue to deliver sound progress. Management has indicated that new car profitability in September was a record for the month, despite the reduction in sales. In addition, there will be a maiden contribution from the recently announced Hereford VW/Audi acquisition. The board has indicated that full year results will be ahead of current market expectations. We have lifted our adjusted pre-tax profit estimate from 24.5m to 25.4m. We remain confident about the medium term. Recent acquisitions are already responding to management support, while the aftermarket operations can be expected to continue delivering consistent progress over the next two to three years. The VW situation is unlikely have a material impact on the group bottom line, because any loss of sales by one specific OEM should be picked up by the others, most of which are already represented by Vertu. We are raising our pre-tax estimate for next year by 1.0m to 27.5m and believe this target should prove conservative, with the increase largely organic; the recent Hereford acquisition will be earnings enhancing, but its contribution may be held back in FY17 by disruption related to major investment in the Audi franchise. Underlying pre-tax profits in excess of 30m are within reach for the following year. Vertu established its strategy for growth on its inception in The fundamentals involving acquisitions and business improvement remain in force, although they have been honed to reflect the changes in the market environment investment in people, systems, customer service and retention have delivered consistent progress in both helpful and unhelpful market conditions. We remain confident that the fragmented nature of the UK automotive retail market offers the opportunities that a strong and highly motivated management team can continue to exploit for the benefit of shareholders. Volkswagen Group Vertu Motors operates franchises for each of the VW Group core brands VW cars, VW light commercial vehicles, Audi, SEAT and Skoda. They represent 9% of group revenues after the recent acquisition, compared with some 20% of the UK new car market. There has been much media speculation about the likely impact of the scandal. We believe that the vast majority of VW Group vehicle owners purchased their cars on the basis of perceived quality of performance and reliability; while the integrity of the group has been severely challenged by the revelations, the feedback from franchisees appears to suggest the vast majority of existing vehicle owners will remain loyal. The removal of certain models from showrooms will almost certainly affect new car sales in the immediate future. We believe there may be a reluctance for non-vw Group vehicle owners to switch their allegiance, especially until the situation is clarified. It is quite likely that the VW Group s share of the UK market may edge lower in the short term, but experience of similar situations with other OEMs in the past suggests to us that if reliability and performance can be sustained, the long-term damage can be contained. The big difference this time relates to integrity, and the attitude of vehicle buyers is going to be very difficult to gauge. The pattern of the shareholder base of VW and its importance to the German economy suggests to us that, while sorting out the difficulties will be very expensive, funds will be injected into the group, if necessary, to ensure its long-term viability. The likely impact on franchisees will probably be mixed. New car sales will almost certainly fall short of earlier expectations, but we would suggest that VW Group will reflect this in assessing whether volume targets have been met for the purpose of retailer bonuses. While used car valuations are holding up well, only time will tell us the extent to which margins can be sustained Vertu Motors 19 October

6 over the medium to long term if the vehicles are seen still to be among the most reliable on the road, there will always be a value around which dealership groups can make a market. Aftermarket operations should benefit franchised dealers will almost certainly carry out the necessary work to correct any faulty equipment, which will presumably be charged to VW at commercial market rates. It is much too early to assess the likely beneficial impact on service revenues. Vertu Motors completed the acquisition of the Hereford VW/Audi dealership business after the problem had become public knowledge. Both the vendor and Vertu were aware of the potential difficulties and negotiated the price accordingly, with part of the consideration deferred for two years and related to certain undisclosed conditions. Group management has made a commercial judgement it has demonstrated support for a major OEM partner in a time of need and has also secured its first representation for Audi. We have listened to the comments made by Vertu management and support the decision to proceed with the acquisition. Valuation Exhibit 2: Peer group comparison Price (p) Market cap ( m) 2014 revenue ( m) P/E (x) Cambria Automobiles Inchcape 732 3,252 6, Lookers , Marshall Motor , Pendragon , Vertu Motors , Simple average Source: Thomson DataStream, Edison Investment Research estimates. Note: Priced at 16 October 2015, based on calendarised normalised earnings, before amortisation and non-recurring items. The motor retail sector has seen rising share prices again in 2015, following an extended period of consolidation after the major re-rating that took place in 2012 and While motor retailing was, for many years, the poor relation in the sector, the gap between average prospective UK motor retailing P/E ratings and those of the FTSE All-Share General Retailers Index has narrowed considerably. We still believe, however, that the 2015 discount of c 24% is far too high. The market appears to have acknowledged the consistent rise in new vehicle registrations over the past three years and the improved quality of management at the quoted dealership groups. However, we feel that neither the limited importance of new car sales nor the change in industry dynamics is fully recognised. The impact of the online presence and financial strength of the market leaders is already evident in the movement of market share in used cars and the aftermarket (71% of Vertu s gross profit); we believe this shift will continue over the medium term. Vertu has established itself as the sixth largest UK dealership group. It has an impressive record based on acquiring and resuscitating businesses, using a standard and successful formula that often involves an early reduction in profits and building towards optimum returns over four years. With a substantial part of group revenue generated in such businesses, there is latent medium-term profits growth across the group. With the additional benefits of a strong balance sheet, there is ample scope to continue this investment. We believe this potential is not recognised in the market rating. Vertu Motors 19 October

7 Exhibit 3: Financial summary 000s e 2017e Year end 28 February IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS PROFIT & LOSS Revenue 1,259,335 1,684,500 2,074,912 2,350,000 2,500,000 Cost of sales (1,110,254) (1,492,335) (1,846,843) (2,096,200) (2,230,000) Gross profit 149, , , , ,000 EBITDA 13,281 23,574 28,650 32,400 34,500 Operating profit (before GW and except.) 9,139 17,904 22,735 26,300 28,300 Intangible amortisation (291) (293) (405) (550) (550) Exceptionals (3,606) (1,180) Other (99) (195) (645) (750) (750) Operating profit 5,143 16,236 21,685 25,000 27,000 Exceptionals Net interest (1,081) (394) (687) (900) (800) Profit before tax (norm.) 8,058 17,510 22,048 25,400 27,500 Profit before tax (FRS 3) 4,378 15,842 20,998 24,100 26,200 Tax (989) (3,414) (4,459) (5,061) (5,502) Profit after tax (norm.) 7,069 14,096 17,589 20,339 21,998 Profit after tax (FRS 3) 3,389 12,428 16,539 19,039 20,698 Average number of shares outstanding (m) EPS - normalised (p) EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) EPS - FRS 3 (p) Dividend per share (p) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%) BALANCE SHEET Fixed assets 129, , , , ,928 Intangible assets 22,585 44,361 52,772 68,372 75,672 Tangible assets 102, , , , ,253 Pension surplus 4,178 3,069 3,003 3,003 3,003 Current assets 301, , , , ,571 Stocks 250, , , , ,958 Debtors 43,939 42,971 53,500 56,593 60,205 Cash 7,240 36,948 19,254 9,170 12,541 Other 0 0 1,866 1,866 1,866 Current liabilities (300,980) (400,233) (470,244) (503,063) (534,889) Creditors (298,980) (398,233) (466,821) (503,063) (534,889) Short-term borrowings (2,000) (2,000) (3,423) 0 0 Long-term liabilities (23,696) (14,569) (9,957) (9,796) (9,796) Long-term borrowings (11,454) (3,512) (161) 0 0 Other long-term liabilities (12,242) (11,057) (9,796) (9,796) (9,796) Net assets 106, , , , ,814 CASH FLOW Operating cash flow 12,973 47,392 26,113 46,124 36,206 Net interest (1,236) (521) (714) (900) (800) Tax (1,430) (2,350) (4,471) (4,911) (5,392) Capex (5,510) (14,447) (17,161) (22,000) (22,000) Acquisitions/disposals (13,481) (37,512) (16,685) (21,000) 0 Financing , Dividends (1,296) (2,526) (2,895) (3,814) (4,643) Net cash flow (9,724) 37,650 (15,766) (6,500) 3,371 Opening net debt/(cash) (3,510) 6,214 (31,436) (15,670) (9,170) HP finance leases initiated Other (0) Closing net debt/(cash) 6,214 (31,436) (15,670) (9,170) (12,541) Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research Vertu Motors 19 October

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Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE s express written consent. Frankfurt +49 (0) Vertu Schumannstrasse Motors 34b 19 October High Holborn 245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor Level 25, Aurora Place Level 15, 171 Featherston St Frankfurt Germany London +44 (0) London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom New York , New York US Sydney +61 (0) Phillip St, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia Wellington +64 (0) Wellington 6011 New Zealand