Evolva. EverSweet. Delivering on the new strategy. FY17 results. Valuation: Fair value of CHF0.60 per share. FY17 results.
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1 Evolva EverSweet FY17 results Food & beverages The announcement that Cargill has officially started producing EverSweet brings commercial reality to Evolva s stevia product, after years of R&D. In line with its new focus on a capital-light strategy, Evolva is not participating in a JV with Cargill, but will rather draw down a royalty stream. This allows a positive contribution to be made more rapidly, and significantly reduces the financial demands on Evolva. We adjust our model to account for this, and also trim our forecasts for FY18. As a result, our fair value moves to 0.60 (from 0.65). 22 March 2018 Price CHF0.28 Market cap CHF216m Net cash at 31 December 2017 (CHFm) 97.2 Shares in issue 770.2m Free float 76% Code EVE Year end Revenue (CHFm) PBT* (CHFm) EPS* (c) DPS (c) P/E (x) Yield (%) 12/ (35.9) (6.8) 0.0 N/A N/A 12/ (40.9) (7.0) 0.0 N/A N/A 12/18e 8.8 (35.6) (4.0) 0.0 N/A N/A 12/19e 22.4 (28.4) (3.2) 0.0 N/A N/A Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. Primary exchange Secondary exchange Share price performance SIX Swiss Ex OTC US Delivering on the new strategy CEO Simon Waddington outlined his new strategy with the H117 results: over time, Evolva has transformed itself from an R&D and technology platform with a number of products with potential, to an innovative ingredients company with a number of commercialised products. The new strategy favours remaining asset-light, thus preferring strategic partnerships such as the one with Cargill or using contract manufacturers for production of its ingredients. We believe the decision to take a royalty stream from Cargill is wise, as it significantly reduces the risks borne by Evolva, accelerates the timing of the positive contribution and improves the cash flow profile, yet only shaves 7% off our overall DCF value. The next significant catalyst should be the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) registration of nootkatone, which is expected by year-end. FY17 results Total revenues of CHF6.8m were slightly below our forecast of CHF7.4m, with both product and R&D revenues lower than expected, and the net loss of CHF39.0m was above our forecast of CHF36.0m. Given the guidance for FY18 product revenues to at least double vs the CHF2.0m reported in 2017, we have cut our product sales assumptions for FY18 from CHF7.3m to CHF5.0m, and as a result we also cut sales forecasts for FY19, although to a much smaller extent. Valuation: Fair value of CHF0.60 per share Our new fair value is CHF0.60/share (previously CHF0.65). We have updated our model to reflect the changes for EverSweet, namely that there will be a royalty stream that will contribute to the top line, rather than a 30% JV participation, and the capital investment required by Evolva will be much lower. We continue to value Evolva on a DCF basis with a 25-year model. We continue to model break-even in FY21, in line with management guidance. % 1m 3m 12m Abs (6.2) (9.7) (40.3) Rel (local) (4.0) (3.1) (41.5) 52-week high/low CHF0.8 CHF0.39 Business description Evolva is a Swiss high-tech fermentation company. It has a proprietary yeast technology platform, which it uses to create and manufacture high-value speciality molecules for nutritional and consumer products. Next events Q118 results May 2018 Analysts Sara Welford +44 (0) Paul Hickman +44 (0) consumer@edisongroup.com Edison profile page Evolva is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited
2 Valuation update We detail our valuation in Exhibit 1. Our fair value falls slightly to CHF0.60/share (from CHF0.65/share previously). We have cut our FY18 sales forecasts for all the key products in light of the guidance that product revenues will at least double in FY18. As discussed above, our product revenue forecast for FY18 falls from CHF7.3m to CHF5.0m (this compares to CHF2.0m reported for FY17). Our FY19 product revenue forecast falls from CHF22.0m to CHF19.4m (excluding revenue from R&D partnerships and grants). Assuming successful commercialisation, we expect a significant ramp-up in sales of EverSweet (stevia) and nootkatone. Note that we still assume breakeven occurs in FY21, in line with management guidance. We now expect the company to end FY20 with CHF4.7m of net debt. We believe by that stage, with the product revenues ramping up, Evolva ought to be able to raise debt to cover its financing needs. Exhibit 1: Summary of DCF valuation Product Value (CHFm) Value/share Notes (CHF) Stevia (royalty stream) Launch date: 2018; peak sales: $600m; royalty stream: 5%. Resveratrol Launched; peak sales: $140m; likelihood of success 75%; margin: 30%. Nootkatone Launched; peak sales: $150m; likelihood of success 75%*; margin: 40%. Valencene Launched; peak sales: $10m; likelihood of success 90%; margin: 40%. Capex (24.7) (0.03) Includes investment of $18m for commercialisation of stevia with Cargill Net cash Reported net cash at end FY17 Total Using FY18 average number of shares throughout Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: WACC = 12.5%. *There is no developmental risk associated with nootkatone, but we have applied a risk adjustment due to uncertainty about the use of the product as an insect repellent. We use a 25-year DCF valuation with a fade. Each product has varying peak sales, margins, rampup assumptions and probabilities of success, as detailed above. In each case, we reduce the R&D and operating expenditure after launch to reflect the lower level of investment required once the product is established on the market. We start to fade stevia in 2031 (year 13) and the other products in 2035 (year 17), and we also assume they become commoditised and their operating margins fall to the single digits, which is the level of commoditised food ingredients. Stevia remains a key product, at c 25% of our valuation, after adjusting for tax and capex, but note that we see greater value overall in nootkatone. Our valuation purely reflects the products on which Evolva has chosen to concentrate, and we ascribe zero value to all other alliances/collaborations and other projects. We recognise that the latter do retain some residual value, but for the sake of conservatism we err on the side of caution. Management has stated that if commercial partners were to express an interest in these existing projects (for example saffron or santalol), it would consider them. EverSweet agreement Cargill and Evolva have reached a new agreement regarding their collaboration, which supersedes all previous agreements. Under the new agreement, Evolva will receive a royalty stream based on the sales of EverSweet. The royalty will be a mid-single digit percentage of sales. We have assumed 5%. The royalty will start to accrue as soon as EverSweet starts generating revenues. This will bring a positive contribution to Evolva significantly sooner than under previous agreements as, with a share of JV arrangement, Evolva would have had to bear its share of any start-up losses before seeing a positive contribution. We have left our assumptions unchanged for the underlying EverSweet market, and continue to expect peak sales of $600m, reached in FY24. This results in a royalty stream of $30m by FY24 (given a royalty rate of 5%), or $21m on a net basis according to our assumptions. Previously we assumed operating margins of 30% and a 30% JV arrangement. Evolva 22 March
3 Furthermore, we previously applied a risk adjustment of 90% to stevia as it had not yet been launched, which we no longer apply. This resulted in a risk-adjusted net profit contribution of $34m, which is only slightly higher than the royalty stream we now forecast. The new agreement, however, also means Evolva is required to make a much lower financial contribution to the facility in Blair, Nebraska, which was previously forecast to cost $45m over three years. Evolva must now contribute $18m, payable over the next 12 months. Overall therefore, the NPV of EverSweet has decreased from CHF167m to CHF111m, but the NPV of our capex has moved from -CHF47m to -CHF25m. The overall reduction to Evolva s NPV is 7%, and yet the risk profile has improved materially, as any risks associated with start-up/production issues will be entirely shouldered by Cargill, and no standalone project financing is required by Evolva (this was a condition of the old agreement). Evolva 22 March
4 Exhibit 1: Financial summary CHF'000s e 2019e 2020e Year end 31 December IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS PROFIT & LOSS Revenue 13,364 9,576 6,847 8,845 22,440 51,979 Cost of Sales 0 (2,951) (4,698) (3,177) (9,815) (25,212) Gross Profit 13,364 6,624 2,149 5,668 12,625 26,767 EBITDA (30,305) (33,965) (37,599) (35,247) (27,967) (13,613) Operating Profit (before GW and except.) (31,947) (36,078) (39,774) (35,976) (28,678) (35,976) Intangible Amortisation (3,779) (5,090) (5,126) (5,126) (5,126) (5,126) Exceptionals Operating Profit (35,726) (41,169) (44,899) (41,101) (33,804) (19,439) Net Interest (129) 497 (596) Other financial income 0 (338) (482) Profit Before Tax (norm) (32,076) (35,919) (40,852) (35,587) (28,401) (14,135) Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) (35,855) (41,009) (45,977) (40,713) (33,526) (19,261) Tax 4,067 5,160 7,023 4,886 4,023 2,311 Profit After Tax (norm) (28,113) (30,880) (33,851) (30,702) (24,377) (11,824) Profit After Tax (FRS 3) (31,788) (35,850) (38,954) (35,827) (29,503) (16,949) Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) EPS - normalised (c) (7.0) (6.8) (7.0) (4.0) (3.2) (1.5) EPS - FRS 3 (c) (7.9) (7.9) (8.1) (4.6) (3.8) (2.2) Dividend per share (c) Gross Margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A EBITDA Margin (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Operating Margin (before GW and except.) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A (%) N/A BALANCE SHEET Fixed Assets 143, , , , , ,498 Intangible Assets 131, , , , , ,110 Tangible Assets 8,431 7,522 5,208 5,085 5,003 4,958 Other fixed assets 3,086 3,578 2,430 14,430 20,430 20,430 Current Assets 88,780 56, ,697 70,435 47,374 41,124 Stocks 2,217 5,687 8,009 5,223 7,529 11,743 Debtors 2,785 2,139 1,831 2,181 3,689 8,545 Cash 83,228 47,517 97,185 57,473 26,574 8,944 Other current assets 550 1, ,558 9,582 11,893 Current Liabilities (7,385) (5,690) (12,261) (11,409) (11,339) (11,274) Creditors (1,182) (1,174) (1,933) (1,101) (1,046) (994) Short term borrowings Finance lease obligations (969) (978) (781) (781) (781) (781) Other current liabilities (5,234) (3,537) (9,546) (9,527) (9,512) (9,500) Long Term Liabilities (21,437) (19,489) (6,840) (9,727) (13,750) (16,061) Long term borrowings Finance lease obligations (4,134) (3,564) (2,400) (2,400) (2,400) (2,400) Other long term liabilities (17,303) (15,925) (4,440) (7,327) (11,350) (13,661) Net Assets 203, , , , , ,287 CASH FLOW Operating Cash Flow (31,353) (33,551) (35,194) (27,496) (24,546) (17,153) Net Interest (376) (301) (379) Tax Capex (1,865) (947) (582) (606) (630) (655) Acquisitions/disposals 3,278 (210) Financing 59, , Dividends Other cash flow (3,975) (677) (658) (12,000) (6,000) 0 Net Cash Flow 25,666 (35,686) 49,644 (39,713) (30,898) (17,630) Opening net debt/(cash) (57,191) (83,228) (47,516) (97,185) (57,473) (26,575) HP finance leases initiated Other 371 (26) Closing net debt/(cash) (83,228) (47,516) (97,185) (57,473) (26,575) (8,944) Source: Edison Investment Research, company data Evolva 22 March
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Polypipe Group. Strong Residential performance. Sector themes maintained, some portfolio tweaks. French disposal modestly dilutive to earnings
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Global Bioenergies. String of successes and new financing. Forecasts updated to reflect results & new financing
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Bionomics. PTSD programme on track for results in Q3. PTSD treatment complete, results coming. Agitation study ongoing
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TransContainer. Russian rail volumes continue to grow. Story intact: Runaway market growth. EBITDA growth set to continue
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High-impact exploration offshore Philippines
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Expert System. Building the foundations for growth. Contract wins delayed by integration efforts. Company confident that outlook remains positive
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paragon Accelerating progress Q2 displays accelerating performance Guidance changes reflect growth initiatives Valuation: Rating not reflecting growth
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Vectron Systems. Scale research report - Update. Evolving the business. Boost from regulatory changes recedes. Increased focus on cloud services
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Record. Maintaining client commitment. FY18 result. Outlook: Seeing well-diversified interest. Valuation. FY18 results. Financial services
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Intec Pharma. Phase III more than half the way there. Gastroscopy substudy complete. New pharmacokinetic study on deck. New plan for AP cannabinoids
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Caledonia Mining. Production in line, EPS down on macro factors. Record quarterly production. New (lower) gold price forecasts
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ADVA Optical Networking FY12 results
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Sigma Capital Group. New funding structure to finance project growth. JV to deliver initial 200m portfolio of 2,000 homes.
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Ceres Power Holdings. Strengthening customer engagement. Customer engagement intensifying. Engagement underpinned by technology advances
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Game Digital. Not a game changer. Early days in the strategic transition. Trading update: Short-term timing delays
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S&U. Positioning for sustainable growth. H119 results. Adapting to market background. Valuation: Maintained on slightly lower estimates.
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NAHL Group. Maiden interims show strong profit growth. Significant rise in margins in H114. FY14e and FY15e PBT and EPS estimates raised
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Park Group. Continued growth in earnings and cash. Small forecast increase, awaiting IFRS 15. New management team takes up the baton
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GLG Life Tech. Moving ahead with formal Luo Han Guo deal. Validation of firm s foray into the LHG market
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Kongsberg Automotive investment headwind, but technology wins results affected by investment, but progress
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Entertainment One. PJ Masks catching Peppa. Strong growth in profitability. PJ Masks joins Peppa as a global Family brand
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GLG Life Tech. Q314 results light, looking ahead. Q314 results below our forecasts. Luo Han Guo and Huinong 3 leaf to drive 2015 results
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The Quarto Group. 40 years young. Children s list delivers on promise. Investing in new titles, building IP for future sales
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Crossject. A reinforced cash position. Zeneo Midazolam targets under-served market. Pipeline expected to progress in 2017
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Photocure. Nordic sales bounce back. Eight more blue light cystoscopy units placed in US. Hexvix/Cysview added to bladder cancer guidelines
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Expert System. Turning the AI hype into reality. Pace of new business accelerated in H2. Increasing interest in commercial application of AI
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Mercia Technologies. Good progress across the portfolio. 17.7% growth in direct investment portfolio. Commercial traction in key companies
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Tungsten Corporation. Focusing on growth and efficiency. AGM update. Outlook. Valuation. Company update. Financial services
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TransGlobe Energy. EGPC receivables issue resolved. EGPC makes significant receivables reduction. Focus in Egypt shifts from seismic to drilling
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PPHE Hotel Group. More of the same. Continued outperformance. Favourable asset management climate. Valuation: Closing the discount to NAV
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aap Implantate AG Biomaterials for sale as LOQTEQ growth takes off Robust growth driven by LOQTEQ in FY14 Sale of Biomaterials under review
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Bellus Health. Thallion deal likely as Jaguar backs revised CVRs. CVR revisions mostly modest; Jaguar supports bid
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Chatham Rock Phosphate
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AFH Financial Group. Delivering on acquisitions and organic growth. FY15 results: Beating expectations on organic growth
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DeA Capital. Expanding asset management platform. AUM growth accelerates in Q4. A healthy net investment balance supports dividends
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Pantaflix. Scale research report Update. Name change reflects VOD strategy. Progressing its VOD strategy. Overview of H117 results
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Deutsche Beteiligungs
Deutsche Beteiligungs Steady NAV growth in unquoted portfolio Half-year results Investment companies For the six months to 30 April 2014, Deutsche Beteiligungs (DBAG) reported a 6.7% ( 1.29) NAV total