Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC)

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Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) Q1 2018 Recommendation Neutral Fair Value (SAR) 112.00 Price as of May 14, 2018 11..10 Expected Return -4.03% Company Data Tadawul Symbol 2010.

1 Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) Q Recommendation Neutral Fair Value (SAR) Price as of May 14, Expected Return -4.03% Company Data Tadawul Symbol 2010.SE 52 Week High (SAR) Week Low (SAR) YTD Change 15.32% 3-Month Average Volume (Thousand Shares) 5,139 Market Cap. (SAR Million) Market Cap. (USD Million) 93,3.0 Outstanding Shares (Million Shares) 3,000 Major Shareholders ( > 5% ) Public Investment Fund 10.00% General Organization for Social Insurance 5.10% 52-week Stock Price Movement Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) revealed the preliminary performance indicators for Q reporting a net profit of SAR 5.5 billion versus SAR 5.2 billion in Q and SAR 3.1 billion in Q increasing 5.4% YoY and leaping 49% QoQ. Thus, the profit margin in Q reached 13.2% versus 14% and 10% for Q and 10% in Q4 2011, respectively. The remarkable improvement in bottom line was mainly triggered by higher average selling price and lower production cost through the implementation of the strategic restructuring initiative. The following table depicts the changes in a set of petrochemical prices: Average Commodity Prices (US$/Ton) Current price Q Q YoY Q QoQ Methanol (SE Asia) % 314.% Polypropylene (SE Asia) 1,2.5 1,218 1,109 15% 1,115 9% Polyethylene - High Density (SE Asia) 1,3.0 1,358 1,181 15% 1,2.0 8% Polyethylene - Low Density (SE Asia) 1,220 1,250 1,311 (5%) 1,251 (1%) Polystyrene (SE Asia) ,552 1,42. 9% 1,454 1% Ammonia (Middle East) % 301 5% 130 SABIC Tadawul Index UREA (Middle East) (2%) 2.1 (1%) DAP (Morocco) % % The top line totalled SAR 42 billion Q mounting 15% compared to SAR 3..3 billion for Q and rising 4% from 40.3 billion in Q4 2011, boosted by the higher selling prices SABIC reported a gross profit of SAR 14 billion compared to SAR 13.5 billion in Q1 2011, increasing 5%, and surging 14.3% in Q The operating profit hit SAR 9 billion in Q compared to SAR 8.3 billion in Q increasing %1.2 YoY and spiking 3.% QoQ from SAR... billion in Q4 2011, thus the operating profit margin in Q came in at 21% compared with 23% in Q and 1..4% in Q Quarterly Sales (SAR bn) and ROS Sales ROS Source: Tadawul 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% Net profit for Q missed our estimate of SAR 5..8 billion and the analysts consensus of SAR 5..0 billion. Petrochemical prices continued to rise in Q fueled by oil prices rising over USD 10. It is worth mentioning that SABIC announced a series of strategic plans in 2011, including the establishment of a polycarbonate plant in China, which is expected to start operation by 2020, as well as acquiring 50% stake in Sadaf and 25% in Clariant AG. Furthermore, we believe that SABIC is able to overcome fluctuations in feedstock prices by cutting operating cost and raising operational efficiency. The management plans to reduce operating cost by up to 1% in On the other hand, China's tendency to put restrictions on factories to limit emissions to the environment will increase demand for petrochemicals products from outside China. Moreover, China will enforce a 25% tariff on 44 chemicals imported from the United States. As a result, we forecast the company's operating margins to continue improving in Q Consequently, we upgrade our fair value of SABIC from SAR 102 to SAR 112 per share. FY - Ending December 2014A 2015A 201.A 2011A EV/EBITDA EV/Sales P/E Meshal Alghaylan Financial Analyst MHAlghaylan@albilad-capital.com For more information, please contact: Turki Fadaak Research & Advisory Manager TFadaak@albilad-capital.com Dividend Yield 5.2% 5.2% 3.8% 4.0% P/BV P/Revenue Current Ratio Revenue Growth 0.0% -21.1% -4.1% 5.2% 1

2 LDPE Polyethylene SE Asia Spot Price (US$/Ton) HDPE Polyethylene SE Asia Spot Price (US$/Ton) 1,350 1,250 1,150 1,050 Polypropylene SE Asia Spot Price (US$/Ton) HIPS Polystyrene SE Asia Spot Price (US$/Ton) 1,350 1,250 1,150 1, ,700 1,600 1,500 Ammonia Middle East Spot Price (US$/Ton) UREA Middle East Granular Spot Price (US$/Ton) Source: Bloomberg 2

3 Operating sectors (SAR Billion) Business segments (SAR mn) Petrochemicals Agricultural nutrients Metal Corporate Eliminations/ adjustments Total Q Sales 50,.23 1,321 3,218 23,819 (31,239) 41,8.1 Net income 1, ,.33 (1,913) 5,508 Profit Margin % 15% 21% 1% 24% 21% 13% Total asset 281,.5. 10,325 18, ,590 (198,109) 339,444 Q Total Sales 43,3.. 1,342 2, ,133 (31,239) 3.,321 Net income 1, ,.53 (1,913) 5,235 Profit Margin % 1.% 38% (% 2) 21% 21% 14% Total asset 2.2,322 12,9.8 19, ,331 (198,109) 322,455 Q Total Sales 51,381 1,251 2,251 23,241 ( 31,585) 40,551 Net income 5, ( 1,1.9) 3,.10 Profit Margin % 10 % 14 % ( 31%) 1 % 1 % 9 % Total asset 2.1,15. 12,9.. 19, ,89. ( 192,440) 322,515 Source: Bloomberg 3

4 Income Statement (SAR mn) 2013A 2014A 2015A 201.A 2011A Sales 188, , , , ,390 COGS 119, ,01. 90,190 81,895 8.,215 SG&A 12,215 13,480 13,188 21,310 20,921 EBITDA 5.,830 52,493 44,590 39,134 43,241 EBITDA Margin 30.1% 21.8% 29.9% 33..% 33..% Depreciation and amortization (14,291) (14,1.2) (15,312) (13,8.4) (13,882) Provision for impairment losses on assets EBIT 42,539 31,131 29,218 25,810 29,3.5 Net interest income (1,15.) (1,.14) (1,493) 1,.41 1,241 Investment income 1,015 1,.08 1, ,428 Others (1,143) (2,455) Pre-Tax and Zakat Income 42,4.. 38,.4. 29,518 21,251 29,585 Tax and Zakat 2,300 2,100 2,100 3,813 4,150 Net Income 40,1.. 3.,54. 21,418 23,318 25,435 Minority 14,888 13,199 8,.34 5,1.4 1,031 NAI 25,218 23,341 18,184 11,.14 18,391 ROS 13.4% 12.4% 12..% 12.3% 12.2% Balance Sheet (SAR mn) 2013A 2014A 2015A 201.A 2011A Cash and marketable securities 35,119 33,.2. 38,.49 40,248 59,011 Short term investment 30,.81 38,981 29,910 20,10. 4,351 Account Receivables 30,11. 2.,000 19,31. 19,853 22,.38 Inventory 32,442 31,.15 24,.35 22,.01 2.,032 Others 4,0.. 4,129 4,492 4,818 5,592 Total ST Assets 133, , , , ,.29 Net Fixed Assets 131, , , , ,455 Projects Under Implementation 28,310 32,.55 32,4.. 12,940 14,313 Intangible assets 22,191 11,151 1.,54. 12,92. 13,5.2 Others 1.,581 18,99. 21,453 10,013 9,49. Total LT Assets 204, , , , ,88. Total Assets 331, , , , ,515 Short term debt and CPLTD.,089 13,901 13,30. 13,212 1.,424 Accounts Payable 19,504 11,.11 1.,515 1.,3.9 18,0.9 Accrued Expenses.,500 10,930 11,150 8,..4 10,031 Others 10,545 2,202 1,.33 3,13. 3,993 Total ST Liabilities 42,.38 44,.55 42,.05 41,380 48,511 Total Long Term Debt 13,941.9,11. 59,219 49,898 41,551 Other Noncurrent Liabilities 14,001 15,984 1.,418 20,498 22,3.. Minority 50,385 48,88. 41,933 44,544 4.,210 Equity 15., , , , ,8.. Total Liabilities and Equity 331, , , , ,515 Cash Flow (SAR mn) 2013A 2014A 2015A 201.A 2011A Cash flow from Operations 59,950 53,895 53,111 39,.89 39,411 Cash flow from Financing (43,012) (30,084) (35,89.) (32,149) (2.,304) Cash flow from Investing (11,995) (25,551) (12,859) (4,.99) 4,531 Change in Cash (1,111) (1,140) 5,023 2,242 11,104 Presentation of financial statements may differ from the company s presentation. However, there is no impact on the final results. All the historical financial statements were prepared in accordance with SOCPA standards until releasing (IFRS) financial statements. 4

5 Albilad Capital Rating Methodology Al-Bilad Capital uses its own evaluation structure, and its recommendations are based on quantitative and qualitative data collected by the analysts. Moreover, the evaluation system places covered shares under one of the next recommendation areas based on the closing price of the market, the fair value that we set and the possibility of ascent/descent. Overweight: The Target share price exceeds the current share price by 10%. Neutral: The Target share price is either more or less than the current share price by < 10%. Underweight: The Target share price is less than the current share price by 10%. To be Revised: No target price had been set for one or more of the following reasons: waiting for more analysis, waiting for detailed financials, waiting for more data to be updated, major change in company`s performance, change in market conditions or any other reason from Albilad Capital Research. Albilad Capital Client Services Tel: Toll-free: Asset Management Tel: Custody Tel: Research & Advisory Tel: Website: Brokerage Tel: Investment Banking Tel: Disclaimer AlBilad Capital exerted utmost efforts to ensure that the information included in this report is accurate and correct. However, AlBilad Capital Co., its managers, and staff bear no liability whether explicitly or implicitly for the content of the report and no legal responsibility, whether directly or indirectly, for any results based on it. This report should not be reproduced, redistributed, or sent directly or indirectly to any other party or published in full or in part for any purpose whatsoever without a prior written permission from AlBilad Capital. We would also like to note that this information in no way constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell banknotes or make any investment decisions. Any investment act taken by an investor based fully or partially on this report is the complete responsibility of the investor. This report is not meant to be used or seen as advice or an option or any other measure to be taken in the future. We recommend consulting a qualified investment advisor before investing in these investment tools. AlBilad Capital preserves all rights associated with this report. CMA Authorization Number

National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (Bahri)

National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (Bahri) Recommendation Overweight Fair Value (SAR) 32.00 Price as of 28.97 Expected Return 10.50% Company Data Tadawul Symbol 4030.SE 52 Week High (SAR) 38.20 52 Week Low (SAR) 26.70 YTD Change -7.15% 3-Month