Coal Mining Sector. Strong Tailwind for Coal OVERWEIGHT. 23 January 2018

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1 Coal Mining Sector Strong Tailwind for Coal OVERWEIGHT 23 January 2018 High demand for coal. Coal price has increased by +6.0% YTD to its highest level above US$ per ton amid strong demand outlook. China demand for coal remained strong as winter weather proven to be colder than anticipated. Switching energy sources from coal to gas has led to inefficient electricity supply for heater, causing several regions in China to suffer from cold weather. Accordingly, coal fired power plant operation need to be restarted by the government to cater growing demand for electricity during these winter period. At current pace, we see demand for coal from China to remain high. Richard Suherman Equity Analyst ext. 610 Ship in a bottleneck while demand soar. While demand soar during winter season, coal shipping has been disrupted as port in China were experiencing a bottleneck. Several news has cited that some vessels had to wait more than two weeks to unload the goods at China s port. Furthermore, delays at loading port in Kalimantan, Indonesia due to huge rainfalls as well as the congestion in Australian shipping port have given more pressure to coal supply. As a result, China has recorded one of their lowest inventory level for coal in December 2017 where it was recorded at Mt (-17.9% MoM, -11.2% YoY). We believe the congestion and coal supply delays have given the upside risks to coal price. Extreme weather added pressure. Winter season for this year has proven to be one of the coldest period ever recorded. Some countries in the Northern region such as US and Canada are experiencing a colder winter where their temperature reached a record low level. One of the example is Chicago where their temperature has drop to 50 C, their lowest temparature in years. Besides that, hot summer in southern region such as Australia has also shown its hottest weather where the temperature has spiked up to 47 C, the hottest temperature since We believe extreme weather condition in this year would lead to higher coal demand. Maintain overweight view with upgraded coal price. As we see strong tailwind for coal, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT view for coal sector. Moving forward, we also upgraded our coal price assumption to US$85/ US$80 per ton from US$80/US$75 per ton for 2018 and 2019 onwards. Accordingly, we maintain our BUY call for ADRO and HRUM with higher FY18 target price at 2,800 and 3,400 respectively, while we downgrade our call to ADD for PTBA with FY18 target price at 3,650 due to aggressive stock price rally. Furthermore, we upgrade our call to ADD for ITMG with FY18 target price at 31,650. Ticker Rating Current Price (IDR) Target Price (IDR) Upside (Downside) FY18e P/E ADRO BUY 2,310 2, % 9.1 PTBA ADD 3,300 3, % 8.1 ITMG ADD 28,475 31, % 9.1 HRUM BUY 2,700 3, % 10.2

2 Newcastle coal price (FY17-YTD) China coal inventory (FY15-FY17) China electricity consumption China s coal import Source: Bloo,mberg, Sinarmas Investment Research Indonesia coal stock 5 years average PE China electricity production by type 2 Coal Mining Sector 23 January 2018

3 PT Adaro Energy Tbk. Revenue 2,684 2,524 3,409 3,772 3,633 % growth -19% -6% 35% 11% -4% Cost of Revenue -2,141-1,839-2,152-2,273-2,196 % growth -18% -14% 17% 6% -3% Gross Profit ,257 1,499 1,437 % growth -25% 26% 83% 19% -4% Operating Expense Other Income/Exp EBIT ,052 1,274 1,214 % growth -33% 77% 79% 21% -5% EBITDA ,434 1,649 1,569 % growth -19% 41% 56% 15% -5% Net Financing Profit from JV EBT ,018 1,236 1,180 Net Income Dep. & Amortization Chg. in NWC CF from Operating ,064 1,060 Capital Expenditure Mining Properties Chg. in LT Assets Chg in LT Liabilities CF from Investing Chg. in ST Loans Chg. in LT Loans Dividends Paid Others CF from Financing % growth -14% 95% 86% 21% -5% Tax NCI Net Profit % growth -14% 120% 79% 21% -5% Change in Cash Beginning Cash ,077 1,445 2,102 Ending Cash 702 1,077 1,445 2,102 2,483 Cash & equivalents 703 1,077 1,445 2,102 2,483 Trade receivables Other current assets Total current assets 1,093 1,593 2,162 2,914 3,264 Mining properties 2,027 2,437 2,507 2,510 2,493 Fixed assets 1,467 1,544 1,535 1,572 1,633 Other LT Assets 1, ,004 1,004 Total Assets 5,959 6,522 7,185 8,000 8,394 ST Loans Other Total Current Liabilities LT Loans 1,444 1,296 1,422 1,573 1,515 Other Total Liabilities 2,606 2,736 2,979 3,257 3,138 Share & APIC 1,497 1,497 1,497 1,497 1,497 Retained Earnings 1,387 1,628 2,059 2,583 3,083 NCI Other Total Equity 3,353 3,786 4,207 4,744 5,256 5,959 6,522 7,185 8,000 8,394 Ratio Analysis and ROE 5% 9% 14% 15% 13% ROA 3% 5% 8% 9% 8% Gross Margin 20% 27% 37% 40% 40% Operating Margin 12% 23% 31% 34% 33% EBITDA Margin 24% 36% 42% 44% 43% Net Profit Margin 6% 13% 18% 19% 19% Current Ratio Debt to Equity Debt to Assets Price to Earning (PE) Price to Book (PBV) ASP Blended ($/ton) Coal Production Stripping Ratio Coal Mining Sector 23 January 2018

4 PT Bukit Asam Tbk. (IDR Bn) Revenue 13,845 14,059 18,820 20,766 21,254 % growth 6% 2% 34% 10% 2% Cost of Revenue -9,594-9,657-11,196-11,702-12,694 Gross Profit 4,251 4,401 7,623 9,064 8,560 % growth 6% 4% 73% 19% -6% G&A -1,031-1,111-1,293-1,363-1,434 Selling & Marketing Other Income/(Exp) EBIT 2,469 2,531 5,416 6,719 6,074 % growth 7% 3% 114% 24% -10% EBITDA 2,963 2,968 5,884 7,222 6,615 % growth 13% 0% 98% 23% -8% Net Financing Profit from JV EBT 2,718 2,734 5,618 6,964 6,323 % growth 2% 1% 106% 24% -9% Tax ,405-1,741-1,581 NCI Net Profit 2,036 2,006 4,176 5,176 4,699 % growth 1% -1% 108% 24% -9% (IDR Bn) Net Income 2,036 2,006 4,176 5,176 4,699 Dep. & Amortization Chg. in NWC , Others CF from Operating 2,512 2,053 3,513 5,058 5,213 Capital Expenditure -1, Chg. in LT Assets Chg in LT Liabilities Others CF from Investing -1,783-1,098-1,342-1,425-1,353 Chg. in ST Loans Chg. in LT Loans Dividends Paid -1, ,919-2,415-2,225 Others CF from Financing -1, ,619-2,110-1,920 Change in Cash ,523 1,940 Beginning Cash 4,039 3,115 3,675 4,228 5,751 Ending Cash 3,115 3,675 4,228 5,751 7,691 (IDR Bn) Cash & equivalents 3,115 3,675 4,228 5,751 7,691 Trade receivables 1,596 2,285 3,089 3,443 3,559 Other 2,888 2,390 3,350 3,811 3,918 Total CA 7,598 8,350 10,667 13,006 15,168 Fixed Assets 5,579 6,088 6,620 7,097 7,511 Other 3,716 4,139 4,693 5,347 5,950 Total Assets 16,894 18,577 21,980 25,449 28,628 Trade Payables 2,794 2,351 2,732 2,862 3,112 ST Loans 1,336 1,439 1,606 1,778 1,951 Other 793 1,253 1,596 1,753 1,793 Total CL 4,923 5,043 5,935 6,393 6,856 Other 2,684 2,982 3,196 3,404 3,605 Total Liabilities 7,606 8,024 9,131 9,797 10,460 Share & APIC 1,183 1,183 1,183 1,183 1,183 Treasury Shares -2,302-2,302-2,302-2,302-2,302 Retained Earnings 10,192 11,366 13,622 16,384 18,858 NCI Other Total Equity 9,288 10,552 12,849 15,652 18,168 16,894 18,577 21,980 25,449 28,628 Ratio Analysis and ROE 22% 19% 33% 33% 26% ROA 12% 11% 19% 20% 16% Gross Margin 31% 31% 41% 44% 40% Operating Margin 18% 18% 29% 32% 29% EBITDA Margin 21% 21% 31% 35% 31% Net Profit Margin 15% 14% 22% 25% 22% Current Ratio Debt to Equity Debt to Assets Price to Earning (PE) Price to Book (PBV) ASP Blended ($/ton) Coal Production Stripping Ratio Coal Mining Sector 23 January 2018

5 PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk. Revenue 1,589 1,367 1,567 1,709 1,637 % growth -18% -14% 15% 9% -4% Cost of Revenue -1,239-1,037-1,047-1,124-1,141 % growth -19% -16% 1% 7% 2% Gross Profit % growth -14% -6% 57% 12% -15% Selling Expense % growth -8% -26% -2% 3% 0% G&A % growth -14% 1% 81% 2% 2% Net Financing % growth -39% -55% 59% 0% 0% Other Expense EBT % growth -47% 38% 91% 17% -21% EBITDA % growth -17% 9% 50% 13% -17% Tax Net Profit % growth -68% 107% 91% 17% -21% Net Income Dep. & Amortization Chg. in NWC Others CF from Operating Capital Expenditure Chg. in LT Assets Chg in LT Liabilities Others CF from Investing Chg. in ST Loans Chg. in LT Loans Dividends Paid Others CF from Financing Change in Cash Beginning Cash Ending Cash Cash & equivalents Trade receivables Others Total CA Fixed Assets Deferred Exploration Others Total Assets 1,178 1,210 1,292 1,347 1,319 Trade Payables Accrued Expense Others Total CL Provision Others Total Liabilities Share & APIC Retained Earnings Others Total Equity ,178 1,210 1,292 1,347 1,319 Ratio Analysis and ROE 8% 14% 26% 29% 24% ROA 5% 11% 19% 22% 18% Gross Margin 22% 24% 33% 34% 30% Operating Margin 9% 14% 23% 25% 21% EBITDA Margin 18% 22% 29% 30% 26% Net Profit Margin 4% 10% 16% 17% 14% Current Ratio Debt to Equity Debt to Assets Price to Earning (PE) Price to Book (PBV) ASP Export ($/ton) Coal Production Stripping Ratio Coal Mining Sector 23 January 2018

6 PT Harum Energy Tbk. Revenue % growth -48% -13% 49% 26% 10% Cost of Revenue % growth -48% -27% 41% 20% 16% Gross Profit % growth -47% 48% 67% 36% 0% Selling Expense % growth -46% -30% 18% 12% 7% G&A % growth -6% -12% -1% 4% 1% Net Financing Other Income/ (Exp.) EBT % growth -340% -266% 148% 53% -1% EBITDA % growth -127% -847% 107% 46% -1% Tax NCI Net Profit % growth -4785% -169% 228% 53% -1% Net Income Dep. & Amortization Chg. in NWC Others CF from Operating Chg in Deferred dev Chg in LT Assets Chg in LT Liabilities CF from Investing Dividends Paid Others CF from Financing Change in Cash Beginning Cash Ending Cash Cash & Equivalent Trade Receivables Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Fixed Assets Deferred Exploration Others Total Assets Trade Payables Others Total CL Total Non CL Total Liabilities Share & APIC Retained Earnings NCI Others Total Equity Ratio Analysis and ROE -6% 4% 11% 16% 15% ROA -5% 3% 9% 13% 12% Gross Margin 0% 15% 23% 28% 25% Operating Margin -8% 8% 17% 21% 18% EBITDA Margin -2% 19% 26% 31% 28% Net Profit Margin -8% 8% 17% 21% 18% Current Ratio Debt to Equity Debt to Assets Price to Earning (PE) Price to Book (PBV) ASP Export ($/ton) Coal Production Stripping Ratio Coal Mining Sector 23 January 2018

7 SINARMAS SEKURITAS INVESTMENT RATINGS GUIDE BUY: Share price may rise by more than 15% over the next 12 months. ADD: Share price may range between 10% to 15% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: Share price may range between 10% to +10% over the next 12 months. REDUCE: Share price may range between 10% to 15% over the next 12 months. SELL: Share price may fall by more than 15% over the next 12 months. DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, an affiliate of Sinarmas Group. This material is: (i) created based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such; (ii) for your private information, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it; (iii) not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of original publication date appearing on this material and the information, including the opinions contained herein, is subjected to change without notice. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. The analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this publication may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personnel and other constituencies for the purpose of gathering, integrating and interpreting market information. Research will initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of Sinarmas Research department. If and as applicable, Sinarmas Sekuritas investment banking relationships, investment banking and non-investment banking compensation and securities ownership, if any, are specified in disclaimers and related disclosures in this report. In addition, other members of Sinarmas Group may from time to time perform investment banking or other services (including acting as advisor, manager or lender) for, or solicit investment banking or other business from companies under our research coverage. Further, the Sinarmas Group, and/or its officers, directors and employees, including persons, without limitation, involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may, to the extent permitted by law and/or regulation, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities (including ownership by Sinarmas Group), or derivatives (including options) thereof, of companies under our coverage, or related securities or derivatives. In addition, the Sinarmas Group, including Sinarmas Sekuritas, may act as market maker and principal, willing to buy and sell certain of the securities of companies under our coverage. Further, the Sinarmas Group may buy and sell certain of the securities of companies under our coverage, as agent for its clients. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision and, as such, the report should not be viewed as identifying or suggesting all risks, direct or indirect, that may be associated with any investment decision. Recipients should not regard this report as substitute for exercise of their own judgment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of any investments may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. Sinarmas Sekuritas specifically prohibits the redistribution of this material in whole or in part without the written permission of Sinarmas Sekuritas and Sinarmas Sekuritas accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. If publication has been distributed by electronic transmission, such as , then such transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this publication, which may arise as a result of electronic transmission. If verification is required, please request a hard-copy version. Additional information is available upon request. Images may depict objects or elements which are protected by third party copyright, trademarks and other intellectual properties. Sinarmas Sekuritas(2018). All rights reserved. 7 Coal Mining Sector 23 January 2018