Financial Analysis and PPP Study

Transcription

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2 Financial Analysis and PPP Study 2

3 Not an usual public/private infrastructure investment Project. But a RARE business investment opportunity, particularly into Thailand s 1 trillion baht energy import markets. Thailand s 1 trillion baht energy import markets. Investors will have an ENTRY point, through The Map Ta Phut Industrial Port Development Project Phase 3, to Thai and neighboring markets. 3

4 The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT) will invest in the infrastructure, valuing B.12,900 million. Or investor can choose to invest in the infrastructure and superstructure at the same time. Under the Public Private Partnership Act of 2013, Investors will invest in Port Facilities and superstructure for their businesses. Investors are expected to pay upfront concession fees for the 30 years use of infrastructure, regular freight and land rental fee. 4

5 PPP format with no fiscal burden Technological Oriented Fit investment capabilities Positive cash flow and balance sheet Investment Opportunities Market rate return on investment 5

6 450 rai of silt pond 1,415 meter of berth length, providing 3 docking berths, and 200 rai of land area 150 rai of general use land area 814 meter of berth length, providing 2 docking berth, and 200 rai of land area 6

7 mmscfd Declining gas reserves in the Gulf of Thailand + gas imported from Myanmar LNG import needs EPPO rising to 22.8 Gas plan 2015 MTPA in 2036 Model and 32.7 MTPA in 2049 MTPA 7

8 Million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) Import needs for oil products such as Jet kerosene and LPG is estimated at 5.8 million tons of Oil equivalent in Net import of crude oil and oil product Oil Products Crude Oil 8

9 Tons LPG import is estimated to be 3.5 million tons in ,000 5,000 3,000 1,000-1,000-3,000-5,000 Refinery GSP Others Net balance (supply - demand) 9

10 Million Tons 20 High Case, Base Case, Year Base High

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13 Infrastructure investment valuing B.12,900 million. Superstructure A investment, suitable for Oil Products business, estimated cost at B.4,300 million. Superstructure B investment, suitable for LPG business, estimated cost at B.35,000 million. 13

14 30 year concession period Base Case Demand Projections IEAT charges regular freight, land rental fees, and port service fees based on present rates charged to the users of The Map Ta Phut Industrial Port 1 and 2 Investors A and B receives normal profit margins for their businesses 14

15 Regular Freight and Land Rental Fee 790,934 Bath/meter/30 year for Water Front 574,193 Bath/rai/year for Hinterland Bath/Ton 15

16 IEAT invests in the Infrastructure Investor A invests in Superstructure A Investor B invests in Superstructure B Investor C rents the 150 rai Plot of Land Investor A invests in Superstructure A Investor B invests in Infrastructure and Superstructure B Investor C rents in the 150 rai Plot of Land SAME AS Model 1 But Investor B advance the cost of and responsible for the development of the Infrastructure, costing 12,900 MB. IEAT refurbishes the advancement in equivalent of 12,900 MB. Net Present Value (throughout 30-year concession) 16

17 % after all related expenses and Concession fee % after all related expenses and Concession fee INVESTOR A INVESTOR B 17

18 A 814 meter of berth length and 200 rai of adjacent land will be up for bidding. A 30 year of concession period of the infrastructure and land use will be given. 18

19 11.4 receives same cash flow as Model 1 from Investors A and C % after all related expenses and Concession fee 11 INVESTOR A INVESTOR B 11.17% after all related expenses and Concession fee 19

20 A construction of infrastructure valuing at 12,900 Millions Baht A 1,415 meter of berth length and 200 rai of adjacent land will be up for bidding. A 30 year of concession period of the infrastructure and land use will be given. 20

21 % after all related expenses and Concession fee % after all related expenses and Concession fee INVESTOR A INVESTOR B 21

22 Advancement of the infrastructure construction cost, est. at 12,900 million baht, and responsible for the development of infrastructure. A 1,415 meter of berth length and 200 rai of adjacent land will be up for bidding. A 30 year of concession period of the infrastructure and land use will be given. 22

23 Received higher scores from the Balanced Scorecard, in particular IEAT takes on infrastructure investment risks. Investor has better cashflow and NPV from Model 2 as the 12,900 million baht investment is offset by no 23,000 million baht payments to IEAT (17,000 m. baht for rental and freight expenses and 6,000 m. baht for concessional fees. 23

24 But. Some investors might not be prepared to invest in infrastructure as it is not their core business. Might create undue financial burden to investors, particularly in the early years. Troublesome to get financing as the infrastructure part is not the investor s core business and produce no direct income. 24

25 Go back to Model 1 as IEAT taking the role of infrastructure investor. Investor B acts as the financier of the infrastructure development. IEAT reimburses the total investment cost of 12,900 million baht over 30 years. Financing cost of the investment will be reimbursed through lower concessional fee. 25

26 Your interest in the IEAT s Business Investment Invitation. Preference on the Business Model 2 or 3 Proposed type of business. Estimated investment cost of your business. Estimated amount of the concessional fee. All useful comments will be much appreciated. 26

27 The Project Implementation Plan 27

28 The Project Implementation Plan : Stage

29 Constructions and Service Opening Plan 29 29