EMEIA recovery place your bets. Reading the cards from our Restructuring Roundtable

Transcription

1 EMEIA recovery place your bets Reading the cards from our Restructuring Roundtable

2 We estimate that less than 15% of Europe s 6,000+ banks have been effectively restructured so far. The forthcoming asset-quality review (AQR) program will throw up a substantial number of asset sales in new geographies and asset classes that are going to be challenging to execute and to make a case for as a buyer. David Barker, Head of Financial Services Transaction Advisory, EY It s not enough to restructure the banking sector. We need to restructure companies; otherwise we re playing at the edges of the problem. Nick Tesseyman, Managing Director, EBRD

3 EY EMEIA Restructuring Roundtable 2013 Where should we be placing our bets in terms of managing and investing for recovery to meet the challenges of Europe s troubled financial sector, the growth slowdown in emerging markets, and the global megatrends that will drive the shape and success of some key sectors? These are tough questions to answer during what remains an unpredictable recovery, but the presenters and participants at our Restructuring Roundtable on 24 September 2013 rose to the challenge to deliver and share insights into what they think the future might look like. Some of their thoughts on how companies, lenders, investors and insolvency regimes are adapting and evolving their responses to meet the challenges ahead are included on the following pages. Keith McGregor EMEIA Restructuring Leader, EY Almost 80% of our delegates believe that systemic threats remain in the Eurozone. Three-quarters of our delegates expect European company earnings to remain stable in the next two years, but almost half expect wages to decline. We re seeing a lot more corporate side activity resulting in more operational restructuring whether it s in established western markets or elsewhere. This activity is often driven by multinationals with supply chains in the Eurozone or emerging markets. Alexander Yerofeyev, CIS Restructuring Leader, EY Just under half of our delegates would advise clients to invest spare cash into driving organic growth, with 25% opting to pay down debt and 25% M&A.

4 EY EMEIA Restructuring Roundtable 2013 Theme Challenges Implications Conclusions Your EY contacts Eurozone threats remain in banking A financial collapse has been averted from the core Eurozone and 36 of the most important banks; however, Europe s 8,000 other banks have made little progress in restructuring. The periphery is still struggling for momentum; while taxpayer patience wanes and flawed Eurozone architecture endures. Low interest rates protect taxpayers from bank failure, but this strong medicine has side effects for financial institutions. A long-drawn-out process of change and restructuring is still to come in banking with up to $2.5 trillion left in deleveraging European banks. A theme of asset sales, capital raising and a further pullback to core geographies and products will increasingly become evident. Gradual and cautious decisions are likely through the EU s incremental adjustments to the debt crisis, with avoidance of taxpayer burdening and continued low interest rates. Further bank bail-ins are expected, especially in tier- 2 capital, to limit the direct burden on the taxpayer. As part of the restructuring process, consolidations will take place and NPL assets will be picked up by non- European banks and large private equity (PE) funds. A bailout is likely for Slovenia and a revived bailout for Greece and Portugal, with further mini-crises still possible. There is a stark divide between banking winners and losers. Only local and regional specialists will survive; a very few will become too big to fail. David Barker Head of Financial Services Transaction Advisory dbarker@uk.ey.com Global economic rebalancing Emerging markets (EMs) cost advantages in energy and labor are diminishing due to competitive rates from the US. Non-performing loan (NPL) levels remain low in many EMs, but history shows how they can rise quickly during crises, as falling growth exposes weaknesses in lending. Despite falling GDP forecasts from 2011, capital flows continued into EMs until mid However, the impact of peak quantitative easing (QE) and falling growth have started to generate greater volatility in flows, especially in currencies. EM markets offer attractive opportunities, but riskreward ratios have shifted toward mature markets as investors take a wider range of factors into account, including rule of law, stability, transparency and the freedom to move capital. Changing cost and growth structures are forcing a paradigm shift in location and sourcing strategies. Less liquidity means lower and more volatile capital flows. Outsourcing advantages decrease, with more companies considering repatriating or near-sourcing operations especially in the US, where energy costs are falling. Capital flows reverse, exposing more NPL, banking weaknesses and current account vulnerabilities, e.g., Turkey. Multiple asset classes emerge, as loan portfolio sales and restructurings increase. Keith McGregor EMEIA Restructuring Leader kmcgregor@ey.com Once you take legal, capital and currency risks into account, sometimes better returns can be made in developed markets. Fund Manager Lessons from the front line Dealing with EM NPLs can be highly problematic due to unsupportive regulatory and legal frameworks, tax disincentives, immature secondary markets and lack of bank and management expertise. Russia and India highlight the dangers of delaying capital and operational restructuring. In the CIS, banks did all they could to avoid haircuts, aided by government bailouts. India s historic reliance on amending and extending loans and economic improvement came to the fore again in Rising levels of NPL are placing pressure on banking systems, especially in Central and South Eastern Europe (CSE) where NPL rates are high, and the failure to move to sustainable capital structures and business models means many Indian and Russian companies find themselves back to square one. Such challenges can eventually force decisive action. India is changing the way its banks account for NPLs, to encourage a greater focus on operational improvement. It is hard to rationalize troubled banking systems with little in the way of legal infrastructure or precedent activity. There is a need for national champions in these economies to restructure banks and, crucially, companies. A change in regulatory framework must be pushed, with lenders taking a closer look at their books. Changes may also be needed in the legal system to make it more supportive of the restructuring process. Keith McGregor EMEIA Restructuring Leader kmcgregor@ey.com Alexander Yerofeyev CIS Restructuring Leader alexander.yerofeyev@ru.ey.com Dinkar Venkatasubramanian India Restructuring Partner dinkar.venkatasubramanian@in.ey.com Rated S&P debt US$8 trillion of rated debt is due for repayment by Megatrends and value creators to drive deals Megatrends such as the increasing advantage of US shale gas, to decreasing European disposable incomes and the region s aging demographics are shaping global corporate activity. Big winners in equity markets, delivering high growth value creators are rapidly disrupting established modes of business, changing paradigms and industry structures. Shifts in demographic and industry dynamics pose an increasing challenge for mature sectors, with traditional production and vendor models under pressure. Value creators will drive activity as they change industry dynamics, through products, technology or specialization. The emergence of new sub-sectors in the technology industry is allowing investors to develop a greater level of expertise to guide investment decisions, while smaller, more nimble life sciences companies have a greater advantage than larger peers, who find it harder to innovate and suffer from tighter fiscal budgets. Companies that specialize can create a wave of activity as their spun-off entities raise capital and their game, with other portfolio companies struggling to compete. Sharath Sharma Global Leader, Sector and Accounts sharath.sharma@ey.com Jeffrey Liu Group Head, US Technology Lead Advisory, M&A jeffrey.liu@ey.com Benjamin Perkins Group Head, US Life Sciences Lead Advisory, M&A benjamin.perkins@ey.com 50% of this debt is non-financial US$1.5 trillion of which is impaired. 80% of impaired rated debt is accounted for by six major sectors. Source: S&P More information For further details on the annual Restructuring Roundtable, contact Helen MacNaughton at hmacnaughton@uk.ey.com.

5 EY Assurance Tax Transactions Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. DE0485 EMEIA Marketing Agency ED None In line with EY s commitment to minimize its impact on the environment, this document has been printed on paper with a high recycled content. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com Contacts EMEIA (Europe, Middle East, India and Africa) Keith McGregor kmcgregor@uk.ey.com Belgium, Netherlands Dolf Bruins Slot dolf.bruins.slot@nl.ey.com UK & Ireland Alan Hudson ahudson@uk.ey.com France, Maghreb, Luxembourg Guillaume Cornu guillaume.cornu@fr.ey.com Portugal Miguel Farinha miguel.farinha@pt.ey.com Spain Remigio Barroso Cardenal remigio.barrosocardenal@es.ey.com Italy Maurizio Piglione maurizio.piglione@it.ey.com Global Alan Bloom abloom@uk.ey.com Germany, Austria, Switzerland Matthias Beck matthias.beck@de.ey.com Nordics Johan Nordström johan.nordstrom@se.ey.com CIS (Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine) Alexander Yerofeyev alexander.yerofeyev@ru.ey.com Central & South Eastern Europe Bohdan Pawinski bohdan.pawinski@pl.ey.com Middle East & North Africa Hani Bishara hani.bishara@ae.ey.com India Abizer Diwanji abizer.diwanji@in.ey.com