Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014"

Transcription

1 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain

2 Outlook for Spain Growth is strong, but vulnerabilities remain Finland Estonia Latvia Ireland Netherlands Germany Belgium Luxembourg France Italy Austria Slovenia Slovakia Portugal Spain Greece Malta Cyprus Published in collaboration with

3 Highlights Spain is continuing to grow quite strongly. Activity is rebounding, the labor market gradually recovering and demand for loans picking up. We expect GDP growth of 1.3% this year, 2% in 2015 and about 2.3% in However, public finances will remain a source of vulnerability and the painfully high level of unemployment poses a threat. GDP growth % GDP growth 2. 0% The recovery is also stirring businesses toward investment. The latest bank lending survey from the European Central Bank (ECB) found a sharp increase in demand for credit among Spanish firms. Initially, this seems destined for working capital to fund incoming orders, but nevertheless, we expect business investment to pick up by around 4% a year from 2015 onward Recent data underlines the ongoing improvement in economic conditions. Exploiting substantial gains in global competitiveness, Spain has been trading its way out of recession, with exports set to grow by a little below 4% this year, accelerating to 4.4% in 2015 and then remaining close to 4% a year in This is stronger than in a number of core Eurozone economies, which have continued to lose competitiveness. Businesses are gradually taking on more workers, driving the unemployment rate down by one percentage point since January. But with the rate currently still over 24%, we expect wages to grow only modestly in the coming years. Nevertheless, the turnaround in labor market momentum is stimulating consumer spending, which grew 1.6% in the year to Q We expect consumer spending to gather momentum gradually over the coming years, reaching 2.5% growth in 2018, after an expected 1.9% this year. There are still a number of risks. Foremost is the high level of unemployment. In the short term, this increases Spain s vulnerability to deflationary shocks. In the longer term, there is the risk of permanent disengagement from the labor market limiting the growth rate. This would delay the improvement in both public and household debt stocks, which are currently over 100% and 85% of GDP respectively, and will remain sources of vulnerability for some time Unemployment 24. 5% Consumer prices % EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Spain 1

4 Growth is strong, but vulnerabilities remain A standout performer Spain has been the standout performer of the fragile Eurozone recovery thus far. GDP expanded by 0.4% and 0.6% in the first two quarters of the year, compared with 0.2% and 0.0% at the Eurozone level, and stagnation or contraction in France and Italy. Moving into Q3, it looks like much of this momentum has been sustained, with purchasing managers surveys pointing toward another quarter of solid growth. Improved export competitiveness has been a key part of Spain s success, but domestic demand and a tentative investment recovery are increasingly playing a part. We expect GDP to expand by 1.3% this year, followed by 2% in 2015, picking up to 2.4% by However, the depth of Spain s recent recession leaves the economy more vulnerable to deflationary pressures in the coming years, while fiscal space will be limited by the size of the debt stock. Trade leads the way out of recession The rapid improvement in Spain s competitiveness position with respect to other Eurozone economies continues to reap rewards. A combination of ambitious reform and stagnating wages in response to rising unemployment has yielded a 10% reduction in unit labor costs in Spain since early 2009, compared with a 6% increase in both France and Italy. In response, exports grew by almost 5% last year and are set to rise by a further 3.7% in 2014, one to two percentage points faster than in higher-cost economies. Even more encouragingly, Spanish exporters are gaining market share, not only in goods exports, but also in service sectors. Services have thus far been slower to respond to the gains in competitiveness, but grew by almost 3% in Q1 this year. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Spanish infrastructure and construction firms in particular are increasingly deploying their expertise internationally. We expect this to support ongoing export growth of around 4% a year through our forecast horizon. Investment is starting to revive Alongside ongoing growth in exports, we expect to see a rebound in capital spending by firms over the coming years. For now, plenty of spare capacity remains in Spain s manufacturing sector, but, given the outlook for export growth in particular, this will narrow faster than in other Eurozone economies. Table 1 Spain (annual percentage changes unless specified) GDP Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Consumer prices Unemployment rate (level) Current account balance (% of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Government debt (% of GDP) ECB main refinancing rate (%) Euro effective exchange rate (1995 = 100) Exchange rate (US$ per ) EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Spain

5 Meanwhile, although demand for loans has remained weak for several quarters, the latest ECB bank lending survey suggested a sharp uptick in demand for credit from Spanish firms. For the time being, it looks like this credit will be used as working capital, but even so it marks an improvement in firms willingness to take on credit and aim for balance sheet growth. Alongside this, Spain has become a more attractive destination for international investors. EY s attractiveness survey: Europe 2014, found that Spain (alongside other reform-minded European economies) has turned the recent crisis into an opportunity to attract inward investment. Figures from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) show that Spain attracted almost 40b in foreign direct investment in 2013, compared with 27b in Germany and just 5b in France. Overall, we expect business investment to grow by around 4% a year over the forecast period, with the composition of this spend gradually shifting from sectors serving external markets to those serving recovering domestic demand. The labor market should continue to recover As a result, the steady improvement in the labor market should continue. The unemployment rate has fallen by one percentage point since the start of the year and almost two percentage points since its peak in early Nevertheless, at over 24% of the workforce and still well over half of all under-25s, unemployment remains painfully high. Steady job creation will help the unemployment rate to fall to 21% by 2018, but more could be done to accelerate this process. A recent OECD evaluation of Spain s 2013 labor market reforms found a powerful impact on employers willingness to create jobs, but noted that interaction between firms and jobseekers could be improved. As it is, the high rates of unemployment will limit wage growth to just about the rate of inflation for the rest of this decade helping to sustain competitiveness, but undermining households ability to spend. Figure 1 Contributions to GDP growth Figure 2 Unemployment rate and consumer spending % year Domestic demand GDP Forecast % Forecast 2 14 Unemployment rate Net exports Consumer spending (%) Table 2 Forecast for Spain by sector (annual percentage changes in gross added value) GDP Manufacturing Agriculture Construction Utilities Trade Financial and business services Communications Non-market services EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Spain 3

6 Growth is strong, but vulnerabilities remain Although consumer spending should grow by almost 2% in 2014, picking up to 2.5% by 2018, this is largely a result of employment growth rather than wage growth. Furthermore, even by the end of 2018, Spanish households will still be spending less in priceadjusted terms than they were a decade earlier. More to do to ensure fiscal sustainability Moreover, although much has been done both to restore competitiveness and improve public finances, there is still some way to go to ensure the latter endures. Although the budget deficit has fallen from 10.6% of GDP in 2012 to an expected 5.6% this year, further work is needed to get below the 3% of GDP reference value under the European Commission s excessive deficit procedure. As a result, we expect government spending to shrink by 0.7% in 2014, and a further 0.5% next year, before growing by less than 1% a year in Additionally, at almost 100% of GDP, Spain s public debt is among the highest in the Eurozone. Although borrowing costs have trended down alongside other Eurozone sovereign debts in recent months, Spain will remain vulnerable to an increase in interest rates. We estimate a 1% increase in Spanish borrowing costs would result in an additional 1b a year in interest payments by and the deflationary threat cannot yet be discounted Finally, as with other severely hit Eurozone economies, we remain concerned about the weakness of price growth in Spain. Inflation in the year to July was 0.3%, down from modest growth in previous months, and survey measures of price expectations among households and firms remain uniformly negative. The moderate depreciation of the euro expected through the second half of 2014 and modest increases in fuel costs will provide some spur to prices, but even so, inflation for the year as a whole is likely to be negligible. Moving into 2015 and beyond, inflation will pick up only very gradually, reflecting the weak bargaining power of workers against a backdrop of stubbornly high unemployment. Barring a faster depreciation of the euro, or a stronger recovery in Eurozone demand, it will be 2017 before inflation reaches 1%. As such, Spain is likely to remain at risk of a cycle of deflation and deleveraging for some time yet. Figure 3 Wage costs Figure 4 Government balance and debt Index 2008 = Forecast % of GDP 4 Forecast % of GDP Germany Italy 2 0 Government budget balance (left-hand side) France Spain Government debt (right-hand side) EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Spain

7

8 EY Assurance Tax Transactions Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. AU2631 EMEIA Marketing Agency ED None In line with EY s commitment to minimize its impact on the environment, this document has been printed on paper with a high recycled content. About Oxford Economics Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 to provide independent forecasting and analysis tailored to the needs of economists and planners in government and business. It is now one of the world s leading providers of economic analysis, advice and models, with over 700 clients including international organizations, government departments and central banks around the world, and a large number of multinational blue-chip companies across the whole industrial spectrum. Oxford Economics commands a high degree of professional and technical expertise, both in its own staff of over 80 professional economists based in Oxford, London, Belfast, Paris, the UAE, Singapore, New York and Philadelphia, and through its close links with Oxford University and a range of partner institutions in Europe and the US. Oxford Economics services include forecasting for 200 countries, 100 sectors, and 3,000 cities and sub-regions in Europe and Asia; economic impact assessments; policy analysis; and work on the economics of energy and sustainability. The forecasts presented in this report are based on information obtained from public sources that we consider to be reliable but we assume no liability for their completeness or accuracy. The analysis presented in this report is for information purposes only and Oxford Economics does not warrant that its forecasts, projections, advice and/or recommendations will be accurate or achievable. Oxford Economics will not be liable for the contents of any of the foregoing or for the reliance by readers on any of the foregoing. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Belgium

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Modest

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Germany

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for exits bailout,

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Stronger

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 214 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Estonia

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Germany Strong

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast June 214 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Slovenia

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Cyprus Severe

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 214 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Slovenia

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Germany

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 214 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Cyprus

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Ernst & Young

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Ireland

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Ernst & Young

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Malta

More information

Slovenia. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands

Slovenia. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands EY Forecast June 215 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Activity to remain solid this year, after growing 2.4% in 214 Published in collaboration with Highlights n GDP grew by 2.4% in 214 and 3% in Q1 215,

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Ernst & Young

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2013

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2013 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Winter edition December 2012

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Winter edition December 2012 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Winter edition December 2012 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 Outlook for Road to recovery remains strewn with obstacles Published in collaboration with Highlights GDP growth With the Finnish economy still struggling to

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Autumn edition September 2011

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Autumn edition September 2011 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Autumn edition September 2011 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition June 2011

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition June 2011 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition June 2011 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Greece Rising

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain

More information

Ireland. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands

Ireland. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands EY Forecast June 2015 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Rising domestic demand improves prospects for 2015 Published in collaboration with Highlights The Irish economy grew by 4.8% last year, which was

More information

Cyprus. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands

Cyprus. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands EY Forecast June 215 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Renewed external funding to support growth, but is a worry Published in collaboration with Highlights The ending of capital controls and the approval

More information

Greece. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands

Greece. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands EY Forecast June 215 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Delay in agreeing reform agenda has undermined the recovery Published in collaboration with Highlights The immediate economic outlook for continues

More information

Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast

Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spain Spring 2010 Outlook for Spain Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring 2010 Finland Ireland Netherlands Belgium Germany Luxembourg Austria Slovakia France Slovenia Italy

More information

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014 OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time

More information

Ranking Country Page. Category 1: Countries with positive CEP Default Index and positive NTE. 1 Estonia 1. 2 Luxembourg 2.

Ranking Country Page. Category 1: Countries with positive CEP Default Index and positive NTE. 1 Estonia 1. 2 Luxembourg 2. Overview: Single Results of Euro Countries Ranking Country Page Category 1: Countries with positive CEP Default Index and positive NTE 1 Estonia 1 2 Luxembourg 2 3 Germany 3 4 Netherlands 4 5 Austria 5

More information

ILO World of Work Report 2013: EU Snapshot

ILO World of Work Report 2013: EU Snapshot Greece Spain Ireland Poland Belgium Portugal Eurozone France Slovenia EU-27 Cyprus Denmark Netherlands Italy Bulgaria Slovakia Romania Lithuania Latvia Czech Republic Estonia Finland United Kingdom Sweden

More information

Insolvency forecasts. Economic Research August 2017

Insolvency forecasts. Economic Research August 2017 Insolvency forecasts Economic Research August 2017 Summary We present our new insolvency forecasting model which offers a broader scope of macroeconomic developments to better predict insolvency developments.

More information

LESS DYNAMIC GROWTH AMID HIGH UNCERTAINTY

LESS DYNAMIC GROWTH AMID HIGH UNCERTAINTY OVERVIEW: The European economy has moved into lower gear amid still robust domestic fundamentals. GDP growth is set to continue at a slower pace. LESS DYNAMIC GROWTH AMID HIGH UNCERTAINTY Interrelated

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 30 NOVEMBER 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi

More information

74 ECB THE 2012 MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE

74 ECB THE 2012 MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE Box 7 THE 2012 MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE This year s European Semester (i.e. the framework for EU policy coordination introduced in 2011) includes, for the first time, the implementation of the

More information

Fixed Income. EURO SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK SIX PRINCIPAL INFLUENCES TO CONSIDER IN 2016.

Fixed Income. EURO SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK SIX PRINCIPAL INFLUENCES TO CONSIDER IN 2016. PRICE POINT February 2016 Timely intelligence and analysis for our clients. Fixed Income. EURO SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK SIX PRINCIPAL INFLUENCES TO CONSIDER IN 2016. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Kenneth Orchard Portfolio

More information

Auditor s involvement in the contributions to the Single Resolution Fund. Providing assurance for 2014 and 2015 SURVEY

Auditor s involvement in the contributions to the Single Resolution Fund. Providing assurance for 2014 and 2015 SURVEY Auditor s involvement in the contributions to the Single Resolution Fund Providing assurance for 2014 and 2015 SURVEY AUDIT & ASSURANCE SEPTEMBER 2016 HIGHLIGHTS This survey demonstrates divergence across

More information

EU BUDGET AND NATIONAL BUDGETS

EU BUDGET AND NATIONAL BUDGETS DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT ON BUDGETARY AFFAIRS EU BUDGET AND NATIONAL BUDGETS 1999-2009 October 2010 INDEX Foreward 3 Table 1. EU and National budgets 1999-2009; EU-27

More information

Preliminary results of International Trade in 2014: in nominal terms exports increased by 1.8% and imports increased by 3.

Preliminary results of International Trade in 2014: in nominal terms exports increased by 1.8% and imports increased by 3. International Trade Statistics 7 July, 215 Preliminary results of International Trade in : in nominal terms exports increased by 1.8% and imports increased by 3.2% vis-à-vis 213 In, exports of goods increased

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 24 DECEMBER 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-1591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi

More information

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017 Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Strengthening of the pickup in global growth, with GDP expected to increase 2.9% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone recovery is upholding

More information

AIFMD: the road to implementation

AIFMD: the road to implementation AIFMD: the road to implementation Analysis of results September 2013 The survey: introduction There has been a lot of attention in recent months on the progress of managers toward the adoption of the

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 28 JANUARY 2016 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi

More information

EMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15 64 years)

EMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15 64 years) EMPLOYMENT RATE 198 26 Employed/Working age population (15 64 years 8 % Finland 75 EU 15 EU 25 7 65 6 55 5 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4** 6** 14.4.25/SAK /TL Source: European Commission 1 UNEMPLOYMENT

More information

52 ECB. The 2015 Ageing Report: how costly will ageing in Europe be?

52 ECB. The 2015 Ageing Report: how costly will ageing in Europe be? Box 7 The 5 Ageing Report: how costly will ageing in Europe be? Europe is facing a demographic challenge. The old age dependency ratio, i.e. the share of people aged 65 or over relative to the working

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 30 MARCH 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 03 NOVEMBER 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-1591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi

More information

THE EU S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PICKS UP MOMENTUM

THE EU S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PICKS UP MOMENTUM THE EU S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PICKS UP MOMENTUM ECONOMIC SITUATION The EU economy saw a pick-up in growth momentum at the beginning of this year, boosted by strong business and consumer confidence. Output

More information

Indirect Tax Alert. EU VAT refunds for non-eu businesses require action by 30 June Executive Summary

Indirect Tax Alert. EU VAT refunds for non-eu businesses require action by 30 June Executive Summary 10 June 2015 EU VAT refunds for non-eu businesses require action by 30 June 2015 Executive Summary Non-EU businesses that have incurred value added tax (VAT) in Europe during 2014 may be able to recover

More information

Previsions Macroeconòmiques. Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and June 2017

Previsions Macroeconòmiques. Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and June 2017 PM Previsions Macroeconòmiques Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and 2018 June 2017 Previsions macroeconòmiques Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy June 2017 ISSN: 2013-2182

More information

Irish Economy and Growth Legal Framework for Growth and Jobs High Level Workshop, Sofia

Irish Economy and Growth Legal Framework for Growth and Jobs High Level Workshop, Sofia Irish Economy and Growth Legal Framework for Growth and Jobs High Level Workshop, Sofia Diarmaid Smyth, Central Bank of Ireland 18 June 2015 Agenda 1 Background to Irish economic performance 2 Economic

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. May 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. May 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch May 2018 BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Eurozone: more moderate growth with higher uncertainty The eurozone GDP growth slowed in more than expected. Beyond temporary

More information

Financial institutions and enterprises issue less debt securities in 2010

Financial institutions and enterprises issue less debt securities in 2010 Financial institutions and enterprises issue less debt securities in 2010 Dutch financial institutions, enterprises and the government issued debt securities totalling EUR 66 billion last year. This was

More information

United States: Exemption of tariffs on steel and aluminum products reached for some countries others extended until 1 June

United States: Exemption of tariffs on steel and aluminum products reached for some countries others extended until 1 June 1 May 2018 Indirect Tax Alert United States: Exemption of tariffs on steel and aluminum products reached for some countries others extended until 1 June EY Global Tax Alert Library Access both online and

More information

EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2000 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)

EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2000 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years) EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years EU-15 Denmark Netherlands Great Britain Sweden Portugal Finland Austria Germany Ireland Luxembourg France Belgium Greece Spain

More information

UK BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MONITOR Q3 2013

UK BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MONITOR Q3 2013 UK BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MONITOR 213 BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE WELCOME Businesses are feeling at their most confident since Q2 21, with that confidence yet again registering across all sectors and all regions.

More information

Indirect Tax Alert. EU VAT refunds for non-eu businesses require action by 30 June Executive summary

Indirect Tax Alert. EU VAT refunds for non-eu businesses require action by 30 June Executive summary 3 June 2014 EU VAT refunds for non-eu businesses require action by 30 June 2014 Executive summary Non-EU businesses that have incurred VAT in Europe in 2013 may be able to recover VAT by applying to the

More information

EU-28 RECOVERED PAPER STATISTICS. Mr. Giampiero MAGNAGHI On behalf of EuRIC

EU-28 RECOVERED PAPER STATISTICS. Mr. Giampiero MAGNAGHI On behalf of EuRIC EU-28 RECOVERED PAPER STATISTICS Mr. Giampiero MAGNAGHI On behalf of EuRIC CONTENTS EU-28 Paper and Board: Consumption and Production EU-28 Recovered Paper: Effective Consumption and Collection EU-28 -

More information

APPENDIX: Country analyses

APPENDIX: Country analyses APPENDIX: Country analyses Appendix A Germany: Low economic momentum The economic situation in Germany continues to be lackluster in 2014. Strong growth in the first quarter was followed by a decline

More information

Macroeconomic Policies in Europe: Quo Vadis A Comment

Macroeconomic Policies in Europe: Quo Vadis A Comment Macroeconomic Policies in Europe: Quo Vadis A Comment February 12, 2016 Helene Schuberth Outline Staff Projection of the Euro Area Monetary Policy Investment Rebalancing in the euro area Fiscal Policy

More information

: Monetary Economics and the European Union. Lecture 8. Instructor: Prof Robert Hill. The Costs and Benefits of Monetary Union II

: Monetary Economics and the European Union. Lecture 8. Instructor: Prof Robert Hill. The Costs and Benefits of Monetary Union II 320.326: Monetary Economics and the European Union Lecture 8 Instructor: Prof Robert Hill The Costs and Benefits of Monetary Union II De Grauwe Chapters 3, 4, 5 1 1. Countries in Trouble in the Eurozone

More information

Is the Euro Crisis Over?

Is the Euro Crisis Over? Is the Euro Crisis Over? Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva 25 March 2014 Eight reasons for the sovereign debt crisis 1. Member States did

More information

Impact of Greece Debt Crisis on World Economy

Impact of Greece Debt Crisis on World Economy Impact of Greece Debt Crisis on World Economy Kovid Kumar Gupta 1 kovid.gupta@gmail.com Abstract This study aims at exploring the reasons behind the Greece debt crisis that emerged in the 21 st century

More information

Recent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy

Recent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy Recent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy Carlos Name da Job Silva Costa Governor 13 January 214 Seminar National Seminar Bank name of Poland 19 June 215 Outline 1. Growing imbalances

More information

Inward investment after Brexit

Inward investment after Brexit EY s UK Attractiveness Survey Inward investment after Brexit March 2018 Contents Executive summary 1 Investor perspectives on FDI 2 Methodology 11 About EY s Attractiveness Program 12 Executive summary

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 4 MARCH 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi

More information

Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft 2016/17 Austrian economic activity, Austria's price competitiveness and a summary on external trade

Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft 2016/17 Austrian economic activity, Austria's price competitiveness and a summary on external trade Schwerpunkt Außenwirtschaft /7 Austrian economic activity, Austria's price competitiveness and a summary on external trade Christian Ragacs, Klaus Vondra Abteilung für volkswirtschaftliche Analysen, OeNB

More information

External debt statistics of the euro area

External debt statistics of the euro area External debt statistics of the euro area Jorge Diz Dias 1 1. Introduction Based on newly compiled data recently released by the European Central Bank (ECB), this paper reviews the latest developments

More information

STAT/12/ October Household saving rate fell in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27. Household saving rate (seasonally adjusted)

STAT/12/ October Household saving rate fell in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27. Household saving rate (seasonally adjusted) STAT/12/152 30 October 2012 Quarterly Sector Accounts: second quarter of 2012 Household saving rate down to 12.9% in the euro area and stable at 11. in the EU27 Household real income per capita fell by

More information

Spanish economic outlook. June 2017

Spanish economic outlook. June 2017 Spanish economic outlook June 2017 1 2 3 Spanish economy a pleasant surprise Growth drivers Forecasts once again bright One of the most dynamic economies in Europe Spain growing at a faster rate than EMU

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 7 MAY 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi UFJ,

More information

Consumer Credit. Introduction. June, the 6th (2013)

Consumer Credit. Introduction. June, the 6th (2013) Consumer Credit in Europe at end-2012 Introduction Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance has published its annual survey of the consumer credit market in 27 European Union countries (EU-27) for the sixth year

More information

Quarterly Financial Accounts Household net worth reaches new peak in Q Irish Household Net Worth

Quarterly Financial Accounts Household net worth reaches new peak in Q Irish Household Net Worth Quarterly Financial Accounts Q4 2017 4 May 2018 Quarterly Financial Accounts Household net worth reaches new peak in Q4 2017 Household net worth rose by 2.1 per cent in Q4 2017. It now exceeds its pre-crisis

More information

Can the Eurozone Remain at the Party? Howard Archer Country Intelligence Group Global Insight

Can the Eurozone Remain at the Party? Howard Archer Country Intelligence Group Global Insight Can the Eurozone Remain at the Party? Howard Archer Country Intelligence Group Global Insight Eurozone Growth Robust in First Half 4 (Percent change, q/q, real GDP) 3 2 1 0-1 GDP Dom Demand Cons Inv Govt.

More information

Enterprise Europe Network SME growth forecast

Enterprise Europe Network SME growth forecast Enterprise Europe Network SME growth forecast 2017-18 een.ec.europa.eu Foreword Since we came into office three years ago, this European Commission has put the creation of more jobs and growth at the centre

More information

Consumer credit market in Europe 2013 overview

Consumer credit market in Europe 2013 overview Consumer credit market in Europe 2013 overview Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance published its annual survey of the consumer credit market in 28 European Union countries for seven years running. 9 July

More information

Spain s insurance sector: Profitability, solvency and concentration

Spain s insurance sector: Profitability, solvency and concentration INSURANCE Spain s insurance sector: Profitability, solvency and concentration Spain s insurance sector currently outperforms the country s banking sector, as well as the EU average. That said, challenging

More information

Ireland, one of the best places in the world to do business. Q Key Marketplace Messages

Ireland, one of the best places in the world to do business. Q Key Marketplace Messages , one of the best places in the world to do business. Q1 2013 Key Marketplace Messages Why : Companies are attracted to for a variety reasons: Talent Young, flexible, adaptable, mobile workforce. The median

More information

remain the same until the end of 2018.

remain the same until the end of 2018. We predict that the European interest rate will remain the same until the end of 2018. Throughout the past three years the interest rate has remained low. In 2017 and 2016 it has been 0.00% and in 2015

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017

Eurozone Economic Watch. November 2017 Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ

More information

Real Estate Assets Investment Trend Indicator

Real Estate Assets Investment Trend Indicator Real Estate Assets Investment Trend Indicator Belgium 2014 Under embargo till Monday 13 January 8am Agenda Real Estate Assets Investment Trend Indicator Belgium 2014 About the trend indicator 2014 Market

More information

The macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax in the Netherlands Íde Kearney, 13 th September 2018.

The macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax in the Netherlands Íde Kearney, 13 th September 2018. The macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax in the Netherlands Íde Kearney, th September 08. This note reports estimates of the economic impact of introducing a carbon tax of 50 per ton of CO in the Netherlands.

More information

Live Long and Prosper? Demographic Change and Europe s Pensions Crisis. Dr. Jochen Pimpertz Brussels, 10 November 2015

Live Long and Prosper? Demographic Change and Europe s Pensions Crisis. Dr. Jochen Pimpertz Brussels, 10 November 2015 Live Long and Prosper? Demographic Change and Europe s Pensions Crisis Dr. Jochen Pimpertz Brussels, 10 November 2015 Old-age-dependency ratio, EU28 45,9 49,4 50,2 39,0 27,5 31,8 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

More information

EMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)

EMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15-64 years) 1 EMPLOYMENT RATE 1980-2003 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years 80 % Finland (Com 75 70 65 60 EU-15 Finland (Stat. Fin. 55 50 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 9.9.2002/SAK /TL Source: European

More information

Courthouse News Service

Courthouse News Service 14/2009-30 January 2009 Sector Accounts: Third quarter of 2008 Household saving rate at 14.4% in the euro area and 10.7% in the EU27 Business investment rate at 23.5% in the euro area and 23.6% in the

More information

ANNUAL REPORT 2015 CHAPTER 2 COMPETITIVE ADJUSTMENT AND RECOVERY IN THE SPANISH ECONOMY DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH

ANNUAL REPORT 2015 CHAPTER 2 COMPETITIVE ADJUSTMENT AND RECOVERY IN THE SPANISH ECONOMY DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH ANNUAL REPORT 215 CHAPTER 2 COMPETITIVE ADJUSTMENT AND RECOVERY IN THE SPANISH ECONOMY THE RECOVERY IN COMPETITIVENESS There has been a significant improvement in price/cost competitiveness since 28, although

More information

Spring Forecast: slowly recovering from a protracted recession

Spring Forecast: slowly recovering from a protracted recession EUROPEAN COMMISSION Olli REHN Vice-President of the European Commission and member of the Commission responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro Spring Forecast: slowly recovering from a

More information

IZMIR UNIVERSITY of ECONOMICS

IZMIR UNIVERSITY of ECONOMICS IZMIR UNIVERSITY of ECONOMICS Department of International Relations and the European Union TURKEY EU RELATIONS ( EU308) FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND TURKEY Prepared By: Büke OŞAFOĞLU

More information

Growth, competitiveness and jobs: priorities for the European Semester 2013 Presentation of J.M. Barroso,

Growth, competitiveness and jobs: priorities for the European Semester 2013 Presentation of J.M. Barroso, Growth, competitiveness and jobs: priorities for the European Semester 213 Presentation of J.M. Barroso, President of the European Commission, to the European Council of 14-1 March 213 Economic recovery

More information

When Debt Pushes Back

When Debt Pushes Back IN-D EPTH A NALYSIS OF THE FIXED I NCOME MARKETS George Rusnak, CFA Co-Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy When Debt Pushes Back February 22, 2018 Key takeaways» The rising U.S. federal debt burden now

More information

News Release. IHS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI. Eurozone growth slips to one-and-a-half year low in May

News Release. IHS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI. Eurozone growth slips to one-and-a-half year low in May IHS Markit Flash Eurozone PMI Purchasing Managers Index MARKET SENSITIVE INFORMATION EMBARGOED UNTIL 1000 (CEST) / 0800 (UTC) May 23 Eurozone growth slips to one-and-a-half year low in May Key findings:

More information