GREEK ENTREPRENEURSHIP. 1/3 of Greek exports demonstrates dynamic performance, supporting the economy during the crisis.

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1 + CHARTBOOK 218Q2 NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE GREEK ENTREPRENEURSHIP August 218 1/3 of Greek exports demonstrates dynamic performance, supporting the economy during the crisis Jessie Voumvaki Head of Entrepreneurship & Business Analysis (+321) Analysts: Athanasia Koutouzou (+321) Georgios Sakkas (+321) Niki Konstantopoulou (+321) Issue Focus: Contribution of exports in the Contribution y-o-y growth of exports of greek to the annual growth economy of the Greek economy,4%,3%,2%,1%,%,4%,12% Dynamic products,34% Other ,8% In pursuing strategies to weather the crisis, Greek businesses have tapped in to the accelerating momentum of international trade, with their exports rising by 37 per cent in More specifically, Greek extra-eu exports had an average annual growth rate of 3 per cent during the crisis (vs 7 per cent before), while Greek exports within the EU maintained their annual growth rate at their pre-existing levels (6-7 per cent). This performance, albeit significant, proved to be weaker than that of world trade (average annual growth of 9 per cent), with Greek products losing share in international markets (dropping from.21 per cent to.16 per cent over the last 8 years). However, the picture is not uniform, as 18 dynamic products have emerged during the crisis, which have supported exports either by maintaining the high market shares they had already gained (e.g., olives, olive oil, marble), or by achieving a significant increase during the crisis (emerging products such as yogurt, pistachios, smoked fish). These dynamic products (3 per cent of Greek exports) contributed 45 per cent of the growth in Greek exports during the period In addition, they tripled their support to Greek GDP from the pre-crisis level of.4 per cent per annum to.12 per cent per annum over the same period (the contribution of other products contracted from.34 per cent to.8 per cent per year). In order to draw useful conclusions regarding the future course of these 18 dynamic products and the likely adjustments they will need to make to their strategy, we divided them into three categories: Highly-competitive products, which represent 9 per cent of total exports (mainly food) and which managed to increase market share during the crisis from 3.9 per cent to 5. per cent, thereby guaranteeing sustained future growth. Products that bought market share in terms of volume, reducing or maintaining a low relative price due to lack of demand in the domestic market (this applies mainly to construction related sectors). As the domestic market embarks on recovery, these products (11 per cent of exports) will have the opportunity to maintain their international presence on better terms. Products that lost market share (from 3.2 per cent to 2.3 per cent), which represent 9 per cent of exports (mainly products with traditional production and marketing models) and now need a comprehensive strategy adjustment if they are to hold on to the strong position they have enjoyed till now. NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 1

2 Contribution of exports to economic growth Global trade: Key players Greek exports: Destinations and products 18 dynamic export products Annex Global trade Greek exports CHARTBOOK 218:Q2 2

3 Βn 18 products (1/3 of Greek exports) gained shares in the international markets during the crisis, thereby lending significant support to Greek GDP Greek exports 25% 71% Marble Cheese (feta) Tobacco Fresh fish Olive 9% oil Olives 27% Dynamic export products 3% of total Cotton exports Furskin Canned Elevators fruit Cement 8% Aluminium EMERGING PRODUCTS Electricity meters Smoked fish Ice cream Meat Pistachios Yogurt Other Dynamic products 3,% 2,5% 2,% 1,5% 1,%,5%,% Share of Greek exports in the world Basic products Emerging products Other *The world, by sector, is calculated on the basis of the following countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, N. Zealand, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, Singapore, S. Africa, Thailand, UAE, Turkey, USA, EU, which account for 91 per cent of global trade (adjusted for the share of the remaining countries in the total trade of non-oil goods). - Basic products: Accounting for over 1 per cent of Greek exports and, likewise, over 1 per cent of global exports. - Emerging products: With global share of exports over 1 per cent and increasing market share over time,4%,3%,2%,1%,% Contribution of exports in the annual growth of Greek economy,4%,12% Dynamic products,34% Other,8% A core of 18 products comprised the engine of Greek exports during the crisis, reporting an increase in exports of 71 per cent in the period (vs only 25 per cent for other non-oil exports) Specifically, these dynamic products (comprising 3 per cent of Greek exports) are divided into two categories: s basic export products, which account for 27 per cent of Greek exports and have gained significant market shares in global markets (e.g., aluminium (1.5 per cent), marble (7.5 per cent), olive oil (8 per cent), olives (26 per cent) and feta (3 per cent)), and emerging export products which, although still only accounting for 3 per cent of Greek exports, have made massive gains in global market shares (e.g., yogurt (7 per cent), ice-cream (1 per cent), smoked fish (2 per cent) and pistachios (1.6 per cent). During the crisis, the basic products retained, on average, their share in international markets at circa 2.5 per cent while the emerging products almost doubled their share (close to 2 per cent in 217). We note that during the crisis, the other products saw their already low share of international markets contract (to.12 per cent in 217, from.16 per cent in 29). As a result, the dynamic products (basic and emerging) tripled their support to Greek GDP to.12 per cent annually during the crisis period (with a cumulative contribution of 2bn) from.4 per cent prior to the crisis, while the corresponding contribution of other exports contracted by almost 8 per cent (declining to just.8 per cent annually in the crisis period, from.34 per cent pre-crisis). 3

4 Contribution of Greek exports to economic growth Global trade: Key players Greek exports: Destinations and products 18 dynamic export products Annex Global trade Greek exports CHARTBOOK 218:Q2 4

5 Tln Tln China, Latin America and Korea were the major exporting economies of the past 8 years Global trade Basic sectors global trade Other 12 12% 5% Australia+N. Zealand Japan 12 11% Other Tobacco Beverages % 6% 9% 8% 13% 23% USA EU extra EU intra Other Asia S. Africa Decreasing share % 7% 1% 11% 12% Pharmaceuticals Wood/Paper Chemicals Metals Machinery ICT Decreasing share % 8% 27% 6% 9% 5% 16% 12% Russia Canada Korea Latin America China Increasing share 4 2 7% 1% 11% 13% 7% 9% 7% 8% 13% 12% Minerals Textiles Plastics Clothing Food Electrical equipment Cars Increasing share Global trade has seen strong growth of circa 7 per cent over the past 8 years, driven largely by China (+124 per cent), Latin America (+86 per cent), Korea (+76 per cent) and South Africa (+79 per cent). Exports from EU countries (49 per cent) and Japan (42 per cent) showed much lower growth rates. As regards the products, the following stand out positively: Cars (+88 per cent), with Germany making a significant contribution to growth. Electrical equipment (+81 per cent), with China making a significant contribution to growth. Food (+71 per cent), with the US making a significant contribution to growth. Textiles and clothing (+77 per cent), with China making a significant contribution to growth. Plastics (+69 per cent), with China making a significant contribution to growth. Conversely, slow growth rates were reported by: Tobacco (+37 per cent), with Brazil presenting significant reduction of growth. Pharmaceuticals (+51 per cent), with Finland presenting significant reduction of growth. ICT products (+51 per cent), with Luxembourg presenting significant reduction of growth. 5

6 while the majority of developed economies have lost market share internationally Market share > 1% and increasing Market share > 1% but decreasing China Korea Mexico Canada India Τhailand Poland Russia Turkey Czech Republic Large and growing (37%) Large but contracting (53%) USA Singapore Germany Spain Japan Brazil Netherlands Malaysia France Australia Italy Αustria UK γηφγηφγη Belgiumη ηφγηξγφξ Market share <1% but increasing Small but emerging (3,5%) Small and shrinking (6,5%) Market share < 1% and decreasing S. Africa Slovak republic Romania S. Arabia Peru Ν. Zealand Hong Kong Bulgaria Lithuania Croatia Estonia Latvia Cyprus Sweden Ireland Hungary Denmark Chile Israel Argentina Finland Portugal Slovenia Luxembourg Malta * Market shares refer to 217, while their course over time concerns the period Against this backdrop, we distinguish 4 basic categories of exporting countries: Large and growing exporters (37 per cent of global exports), such as the Asian countries (China, Korea, India and Thailand), as well as Eastern European countries (Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic). Turkey stands out among Mediterranean countries,. Small but emerging exporters (3.5 per cent of the world s exports), mainly countries of SE and E Europe (Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Croatia, Estonia and Latvia). Cyprus stands out among Mediterranean countries, Large but contracting exporters (53 per cent of global exports), mainly eurozone countries (Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Belgium, Spain, and Austria), and other developed markets (the US, Japan, and the UK). Small and shrinking exporters (6.5 per cent of global exports), mainly Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Denmark, Finland), Latin American countries (Chile and Argentina), and some Mediterranean countries, such as Portugal, Malta, and. 6

7 Contribution of Greek exports to economic growth Global trade: Key players Greek exports: Destinations and products 18 dynamic export products Annex Global trade Greek exports CHARTBOOK 218:Q2 7

8 Bn Greek exports to EU countries have maintained their upward trend, while export growth to non-eu countries (mainly US) is slowing down Greek exports of products Total exports change: 74% Yoy average exports change: 6,5% Yoy average exports change: 5,8% 5 Yoy average exports Yoy average exports change: 2,7% change: 7% % 7% 25% 5% 1% Greek exports per destination 5% 24% 6% 11% 43% 45% Other N. America Balkans Oceania Asia East EU Middle East S. America Decreasing share Increasing share EU extra EU intra Top exporting destinations 217 % chg 9-17: 57% 15% 25% 45% 53% -12% 58% 5% 33% 79% 52% 119% 62% 146% -5% 193% -14% 41% 57% 149% 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 71 per cent of total exports Western EU countries absorb 45 per cent of Greek exports of goods, with Italy accounting for 12 per cent (and increasing its demand by 57 per cent in the last eight years) and Germany accounting for 1 per cent of Greek exports (increasing its demand by 15 per cent over the same period). While Greek exports to EU countries grew at the same pre- and post-crisis annual pace on average (6-7 per cent), Greek exports to non-eu countries increased at a slower rate during the crisis (3 per cent on annual basis vs 7 per cent pre-crisis). This development reflects mainly a reduction in Greek exports to the US, Albania and FYROM over the past eight years. On the other hand, Eastern European countries increased their demand for Greek products with exports to Poland rising by 119 per cent in the period , and to the Czech Republic by 149 per cent. In addition, Greek exports to China and Israel posted a notable increase (+146 per cent and +193 per cent, respectively, during ). 8

9 Reduction in global market share for most of the key categories of Greek export products during the crisis Share of Greek exports to world trade Total Greek exports,16% Tobacco[2%] 1,62% Food[25%],56% Metals[18%],3% Textiles[4%],3% Pharmaceuticals[6%],26% Beverages[1%],25% Minerals[2%],22% Clothing[5%],18% Chemicals[7%],18% Plastics[4%],17% 217 Wood/Paper[2%],1% 29 Electrical equipment[4%],7% Machinery[4%],6% ICT[4%],5% Cars[2%],2% Other[8%],13% % 1% 1% 2% 2% % world exports Degree of dependence of Greek exports on the main destination for each key product category Product Category [1] Main destination Change in Degree of dependence [2] exports [3] Beverages Germany 29% 3% Minerals USA 25% 67% ICT Ιταλία 24% 152% Textiles Turkey 23% % Tobacco Βέλγιο 2% 6% Electrical equipment Germany 2% 1% Pharmaceuticals Germany 18% -5% Food Italy 18% 4% Chemicals China 16% 52% Μetals Ιταλία 15% 29% Plastics Turkey 13% 2% Clothing Germany 12% 5% Cars Bulgaria 12% 8% Wood/Paper Bulgaria 11% 1% Machinery Germany 9% 18% [1]: Basic product categories that make up total exports. Ranking based on the degree of dependence on the main market. [2]: Share in Greek exports by product category that is absorbed by the main destination. [3]: Average annual growth in Greek exports for each product category to the main destination Despite the increase in Greek exports of products by 37 per cent during the crisis (29-217), the share of Greek products in the global market (which grew faster at circa 7 per cent) declined to.16 per cent in 217 vs.21 per cent in 29. This had a twofold impact, as saw its share of EU exports contract (-15 per cent) while the EU too saw its share of the global market contract (-11 per cent). By examining the basic distinction of total Greek exports into 16 key product categories (see chart), only ICT exports managed to gain international market share during the crisis (.54 per cent in 217 from.48 per cent in 29). Note that the Italian market absorbs almost ¼ of Greek ICT exports, with its demand increasing by 152 per cent annually over the last eight years. At the same time, 3 product categories managed to maintain unchanged their global market share during the crisis: wood & paper products (.1 per cent in 217), chemicals (.18 per cent in 217), and metal (.3 per cent in 217). It is worth noting that the main destination country for Greek chemicals is China (absorbing 16 per cent of Greek chemical exports), with demand increasing by 52 per cent annually over the last eight years. Of the remaining categories (all of which lost some of their global share), the most significant are: Food (25 per cent of Greek exports), with global share contracting to.56 per cent in 217 (vs.68 per cent in 29). Pharmaceuticals (6 per cent of Greek exports), with global share contracting to.26 per cent in 217 (vs.36 per cent in 29). Clothing (5 per cent of Greek exports), with global share contracting to.18 per cent in 217 (vs.34 per cent in 29). 9

10 The following 71 products cover ¾ of Greek exports - 18 dynamic products stand out (1) PRODUCT (2) THE MIX OF GREEK EXPORTS % CHANGE DURING WORLD SHARE (3) Aluminium 8% 121% 1.5% Pharmaceuticals 6% 26%.3% Steel 3.5% 6%.2% Electric machines 3.4% 39%.1% Manufactured plastics 3.3% 58%.3% Metallic products for industrial use 2.9% 39%.2% Copper 2.7% 15%.6% Olive oil 2.7% 84% 7.6% Fresh fish 2.5% 32% 17.5% Tobacco 2.4% 11% 1.6% Primary plastics 2.3% 51%.2% Special category of cheese (feta) 2.1% 11% 2.9% Marble 2.1% 185% 7.1% Olives 2% 11% 26.3% Cotton 1.8% 15% 3.7% Women s clothing 1.6% -16%.3% Plastics 1.4% 64%.2% Telecommunication equipment 1.2% 4% % Special textiles 1.2% 21%.3% Furskins 1.2% 34% 2.9% Canned fruit 1.1% 2% 2% Cosmetics 1.1% 2%.5% Cement 1% 15% 3.4% Grapes.8% -1% 1.9% Toys.8% 333%.7% Yogurt.7% 24% 7.3% Pulp products.6% 244%.3% Fertilizers.6% 89%.3% Electricity meters.6% 19% 2.5% Peaches/Apricots/ Cherries.6% 49% 2.7% Biscuits.6% 152%.9% Oranges.6% -1% 3% Internal combustion engines.5% 5%.1% Shoes.5% 47%.1% PRODUCT (2) THE MIX OF GREEK EXPORTS % CHANGE DURING WORLD SHARE (3) Paint colours.5% 48%.9% Wine.4% 37%.3% Seeds.4% 21%.1% Furnitures.4% 62% % Portable PC.4% 593%.1% Men s clothing.4% -17%.1% Rice.4% 62%.5% Elevators.3% 13% 1.7% Jewelry.3% 34%.1% Ouzo.3% 123% 1.4% Manufactured tomatoes.3% -28% 1.4% Melons.2% 11% 1.9% Durum wheat.2% -65% 1.7% Water.2% 28%.2% Mandarins.2% 17% 1.2% Smoked fish.2% 1992% 2% Lighting devices.2% 166%.1% Pasta.2% 3% 1.1% Watches.2% 179%.2% Juices.2% 154%.3% Ice cream.2% 131% 1.1% Chocolate.2% 185%.1% Fish filets.2% 61%.2% Jams.2% 23% 1.3% Sheep meat.2% 243% 1% Strawberries.1% 61%.5% Apples.1% 277%.4% Cucumbers.1% 3% 1.4% Lead.1% 178%.4% Pistachios.1% 187% 1.6% Vinegar.1% 47% 2.5% Figs.1% 57% 3.4% Honey.1% 265%.7% Fresh tomatoes.1% 566%.2% Oil seeds excl. olive oil % -23% % Lemons % -27%.2% Snails % 2% 2.1% [1]: The dynamic products in purple and orange frames above are divided respectively into: - Basic products: Accounting for over 1 per cent of Greek exports and, likewise, over 1 per cent of global exports. - Emerging products: With global share in exports of over 1 per cent and increasing market share over time [2]: Ranking based on contribution to Greek exports (1st column: mix of Greek exports). [3]: Highlighted in green are products with increasing global export shares, and in purple those with decreasing shares. 1

11 The 18 dynamic and high competitive products include mainly quality foods, which gained global market shares with high or upward moving prices Change of greek exports share in the world (volume) Change of Greek exports relative prices Yogurt Meat Pistachios Smoked fish Marble Cheese (feta) Ice cream Cement Elevators Olives Electricity meters Olive oil Canned fruit -15% Fresh fish -16% Aluminium -19% Furskin -21% Tobacco-29% Cotton-33% 44% 41% 26% 22% 21% 11% 8% 73% 144% 132% 124% 116% -9% -23% -4% -18% % -3% -13% -3% -17% 5% 2% 2% 6% 5% 3% 4% 67% 117% *Green: increase of share in terms of value Purple: decrease of share in terms of value Yellow: Unchanged share in terms of value When we take a closer look at the dynamic products (i.e. those that stand out in the previous chart) in international markets, we can divide them into 3 categories: Highly-competitive products which have managed to increase or maintain high market shares (in terms of volume) with a high or upward moving price thereby guaranteeing sustained future growth. These mainly include foods with specific quality profiles, such as smoked fish, olives, yogurt, pistachios, feta, ice-cream and olive oil. Products that have bought market share in terms of volume, reducing or maintaining a low relative price on global markets. These include mainly construction materials such as marble, elevators, cement and aluminium probably as a counterweight for weak domestic demand (the construction sector contracted by 4 per cent during the crisis). Due to reduced earnings (or even losses), such a strategy is not viable in the long term, but a recovery in domestic demand would improve their terms of activity in the international market as well. Products that lost market share in terms of volume, which while holding high shares of Greek exports nonetheless failed to exploit effectively rising global demand, despite lowering their relative price. These include mainly traditional products such as fur, tobacco and cotton, which did not adapt their production/marketing model fast enough and look as if they need a comprehensive strategy realignment if they are to hold on to the strong position they once enjoyed. 11

12 Contribution of Greek exports to economic growth Global trade: Key players Greek exports: Destinations and products 18 dynamic export products Annex Global trade Greek exports CHARTBOOK 218:Q2 12

13 18 dynamic export products * The dynamic products are divided into: - Basic products: Accounting for over 1 per cent of Greek exports and, likewise, over 1 per cent of global exports. - Emerging products: With global share of exports over 1 per cent and increasing market share over time 13

14 DYNAMIC GREEK EXPORT PRODUCTS the position of in the world A. BASIC Destinations: Germany: 19% France: 12% UK: 7% ,3% Canned fruit +2% 2,% % 2% 1% % 1st in the world... with a 2 per cent share, is way ahead in canned fruit exports, leaving its main competitor far behind (China: 16 per cent). Clingstone peach is its basic product, with main destinations being EU countries. The main destination of Greek exports (Germany) reduced its demand (from 3 per cent in 29 to 19 per cent in 217). The US market is becoming an emerging destination, accounting for 4 per cent of Greek canned fruit exports vs 1 per cent in 29. Chile 8% Spain 1% China 16% Destinations: Italy: 43% Spain: 14% France: 11% ,2% Destinations: USA: 3% Germany: 1% Italy: 7% Fresh fish +32% % Olives +11% * In million Share in world 35% 17,5% 25% 15% 5% -5% 3% 26% 2% 1% % 1st in the world... with a 17 per cent share, leads the way in fresh fish exports (sea bream and sea bass). While EU countries cover almost ½ of the world's supply, Turkey is a strong competitor due to the favourable institutional framework and state aid. Just 4 West European Countries (Italy, Spain, France, Portugal) absorb 78 per cent of Greek fresh fish exports. France 5% 2nd in the world... Turkey 5% Spain 8% Morocco7% Turkey 9% in olive exports with a 26 per cent share. Olives have shown resilience during the crisis, and are exported to 88 countries worldwide. Just two Mediterranean countries (Spain, ) account for 63 per cent of the world s supply, with the rest of the countries holding single-digit shares. However, North African countries (such as Morocco and Egypt) have made a dynamic entry into the international market in recent years. Two countries alone (USA, Germany) absorb 4 per cent of Greek exports. Demand from Italy has posted a significant decline (from 12 per cent in 29 to 7 per cent in 217). Spain 42% 14

15 DYNAMIC GREEK EXPORT PRODUCTS the position of in the world A. BASIC Destinations: Italy: 52% Germany: 1% USA: 7% 3rd in the world ,6% Olive oil +84% 18% 7,6% 13% 8% holds an 8 per cent market share in exports of olive oil, with Spain being its main competitor. 92 per cent of global trade in olive oil is covered by just 5 countries. Just two countries (Italy, Germany) absorb 62 per cent of Greek exports, while Spain is an emerging market, as it increased its demand from 2 per cent in 29 to 7 per cent in % Spain 48% % Italy 23% Portugal 6% Destination: China: 55% USA: 6% United Arab Emirates: 4% 4,7% Marble +185% Destinations: Turkey: 46% Egypt: 18% Indonesia: 11% 6,% Cotton +15% In million Global share 15% 7,5% 1% 5% % 1% 3,7% 6% 2% -2% 5th in the world... in exports of marble products, with a 7.5 per cent share. The main destination of Greek exports (China) recorded a significant increase in demand over the last decade (by 74 per cent annually on average). Qatar is also an emerging market accounting currently for 2 per cent of Greek exports vs.2 per cent in 29, while Greek exports have lost ground in Singapore, from 6 per cent in 29 to 1 per cent in 217. Just 3 countries (Turkey, Italy, China) cover 69 per cent of the global supply with all other countries holding single-digit shares. 6th in the world... China 19% in cotton exports, holds an unchanged 4 per cent share. In 217, the market price of cotton recorded a five-year high ($78.63/1 bales). Just 4 countries (USA, India, Brazil, Australia) cover 74 per cent of the world's supply, with all other countries holding single-digit shares. In Turkey (which is the main destination), the devaluation of the Turkish lira vs US dollar may have a negative impact on its imports. Bangladesh is an emerging market, accounting currently for 4 per cent of Greek exports, whereas in 29 it was not included in the destinations. Brazil 12% Turkey 28% Italy 22% US 38% India 14% 15

16 DYNAMIC GREEK EXPORT PRODUCTS the position of in the world A. BASIC Destinations: Russia: 26% Denmark: 19% United Arab Emirates: 13% ,5% Furskin +34% 8% 6% 2,9% 4% 2% 9th in the world... holds a 3 per cent share in fur exports. Just two countries China and Denmark cover 53 per cent of the global supply, with all other countries holding single-digit shares. The main destination of Greek exports is Russia, though demand has contracted significantly (by 16 per cent in the last 8 years). The Danish market is emerging, as demand has soared (by 147 per cent on average in the last 8 years) % China 42% Denmark 11% Italy 6% Destinations: Germany: 33% UK: 15% Italy: 1% ,1% Cheese (feta) +11% 2,9% ,5% 2,8% 2,1% 1,4%,7%,% 1th in the world... holds a 3 per cent share in exports of special types of cheese, with feta included in this category. Western European countries account for 44 per cent of the global supply. The two main destinations of Greek exports recorded increased demand over the last 8 years (Germany: +98 per cent and UK: +14 per cent), with the rapid growth of France (+349 per cent) and Japan (+445 per cent) standing out, especially after the 217 agreement with the EU on the use of the term PDO. By contrast, demand in Cyprus dropped (1 per cent over the last 8 years). Netherlands 18% Germany 12% France 13% In million Global share 16

17 DYNAMIC GREEK EXPORT PRODUCTS the position of in the world A. BASIC Destinations: USA: 48% Israel: 14% UK: 7% ,3% Cement +15% Destinations: Belgium: 2% Bulgaria: 13% Libya 12% ,1% Tobacco +11% In million Global share 4,5% 3,4% 1,6% Destinations: Italy: 21% Germany: 14% France: 7% ,3% Aluminium +121% 2,5%,5% -1,5% 3,% 2,% 1,%,% 1,8% 1,5% 1,2%,6%,% th in the world... holds a 3.5 per cent share in exports of cement a significant share in a market where 66 per cent of global exports are covered by 1 countries. The two main destinations (US, Israel) are new markets for Greek cement exports and posted a sharp increase in demand over the last 8 years (14 per cent annually on average vs -7 per cent annually on average to other destinations). There has been a significant decline in demand by markets such as Albania, Libya and Italy (-93 per cent, -97 per cent and -96 per cent, respectively). China 8% 21st in the world... 23rd in the world... Vietnam 6% USA 7% Thailand 7% holds a 1.6 per cent share in global tobacco exports. The two main destinations (Belgium and Bulgaria) presented strong upward demand over the last 8 years (+4 per cent to +45 per cent, compared to flat demand in other destinations overall). Libya (currently covering 12.4 per cent of Greek tobacco exports vs.4 in 29) is a dynamically emerging destination, while the sharp reduction of demand in Germany (-79 per cent in the last 8 years) meant that it absorbed just 1 per cent of Greek exports vs 5.3 per cent in 29. holds a 1.5 per cent share in global aluminium exports. The major aluminium exporters are China, Germany and the US, covering almost ¼ of the total supply. The main destination is Italy, whose demand, however, dropped by 9 per cent over the last 8 years. Emerging markets include Austria, Bulgaria and Poland, with their demand growing over 8 per cent in the last 8 years. Germany 13% USA 6% Poland 6% Germany 8% China 11% 17

18 DYNAMIC GREEK EXPORT PRODUCTS the position of in the world B. EMERGING Destinations: Italy: 42% UK: 22% Austria: 6% ,2% Yogurt +24% 9% 7,3% 6% 3% 4th in the world... holds a 7 per cent share in yogurt exports. Yogurt is the fastest growing product in the US food market. The main destination (Italy) has recorded massivegrowth in demand over the last 8 years (646 per cent). Norway is an emerging market, where demand for Greek yogurt increased from.1 per cent in 29 to 5 per cent in 217. Just two EU countries (Germany 25 per cent, and France 15 per cent) account for 4 per cent of the world s supply Destinations: Italy: 31% France: 18% Netherlands: 13% 4,8% Pistachios +187% 1,6% % 2,% 1,5% 1,%,5% Austria 7% 8th in the world... France 15% holds a 1.6 per cent share in global exports of pistachios. In Italy, demand has risen sharply over the last 8 years, thus making it the main destination for Greek exports (234 per cent annually on average) vs France, where exports fell by 4 per cent over the same period. Emerging markets for pistachios include the Netherlands and Spain where demand increased by an average 418 per cent and 191 per cent annually, respectively. The US alone covers about ½ of the world's supply. Germany 25% ,% Hong Kong 19% USA 52% Destinations: Netherlands: 97% Italy: 2% Cyprus:,4%,2% Smoked fish 1992% In million Global share 4,6% 2,% 3,6% 2,6% 1,6%,6% -,4% Germany 9% 9th in the world... holds a 2 per cent share in exports of smoked fish. 97 per cent of Greek exports in 217 were directed to the Netherlands, whereas in 29 did not export to the country. On the other hand, Greek exports to Germany fell by 99 per cent over the last 8 years. Just 3 EU countries account for 57 per cent of the global supply. Germany 12% Poland 34% Lithuania 12% 18

19 DYNAMIC GREEK EXPORT PRODUCTS the position of in the world B. EMERGING Destinations: Italy: 43% Spain: 36% Portugal: 9% 12th in the world Meat 1,4% +243% 1,% 1,%,5%,6%,2% -,2% holds a 1 per cent share in meat exports (lamb/mutton and goat). The main destination of Greek exports is Italy (43 per cent), whereas a strongly emerging market is Spain, having increased its demand substantially over the last 8 years (+172 per cent on average annually). By contrast, Greek meat exports appear to be losing ground in Cyprus, dropping by 21 per cent. Only 3 countries (Australia, New Zealand and the UK) account for 65 per cent of the global supply, with all other countries holding single-digit shares. Australia 31% Destinations: Netherlands: 35% Mexico: 34% Switzerland: 4% Destinations: Australia: 1% UK: 1% Russia: 1% ,1% 1,5% Electricity meters +19% Elevators +13% In million Global share 2,5% ,% 3,% 1,% 1,7% 2,5% -1,% 3,5% 1,5%,5% -,5% 16th in the world... Germany 9% New Zealand 2% UK 14% 13th in the world... holds a 2.5 per cent share in exports of electricity meters. There has been a significant increase in demand in the last 8 years in the Netherlands (453 per cent on average) and Mexico, where there was no Greek presence in 29, as opposed to Germany which reduced its demand over the same period by 66 per cent. Just 3 countries (China, US, Mexico) cover almost ½ of the global supply. Mexico 12% USA 14% holds a 1.7 per cent share in elevator exports. The main destination of such Greek exports is Australia, absorbing 1 per cent. Saudi Arabia and France are emerging markets (an average +351 per cent and +854 per cent annually, respectively, over the last 8 years), as well as Germany, which in 29 was not an export destination for this product. China and Spain cover 35 per cent of the global supply, with all other countries holding single-digit shares. Spain 11% China 19% China 24% 19

20 DYNAMIC GREEK EXPORT PRODUCTS 's position in the world B. EMERGING Destinations: Cyprus: 17% Germany: 13% UK: 12% ,7% Ice cream +131% 1,1% ,% 1,5% 1,%,5%,% 17th in the world... holds a 1 per cent share in ice-cream exports. A significant decrease in demand was posted by s main destination market, Cyprus (-7 per cent over the last 8 years). The emerging markets for are Germany and the UK (an average +433 per cent and +319 per cent annually, respectively). France, Germany and Belgium account for 38 per cent of the global supply. France 13% Belgium 12% Germany 13% In million Global share 2

21 Contribution of Greek exports to economic growth Global trade: Key players Greek exports: Destinations and products 18 dynamic export products Annex Global trade Greek exports CHARTBOOK 218:Q2 21

22 China USA Germany Japan Korea Mexico Canada India Thailand Poland GLOBAL TRADE: KEY PLAYERS KEY PLAYERS IN GLOBAL TRADE 4 2 Top exporting countries 2% 15% 1% 5% % Market share of countries Basic markets Emerging markets 4% 2% % -2% -4% Total China Korea USA Germany Netherlands Japan Share to the world % change of the share to the world KEY PLAYERS IN EU TRADE EU exports 29 EU exports 217 Germany Netherlands France Italy,5% UK Belgium Spain 25% 4,9% 8% 7% 9% 25% 11% 1% Germany Netherlands France Italy UK,4% Belgium Spain 26% 5,3% 7% 7% 9% 25% 9% 1% Other Other 22

23 GLOBAL TRADE: KEY PLAYERS China Germany % 2% 15% 1% 5% % ,% 11,5% 11,% 1,5% 1,% 9,5% 9,% USA Japan ,2% 1,% 9,8% 9,6% 9,4% 9,2% % 6% 4% 2% % Korea 4,4% 4,2% 4,% 3,8% 3,6% Netherlands 4,6% 4,4% 4,2% 4,% 3,8% 3,6% 3,4% Exports (bn. ) left axis Global share right axis 23

24 CHINA USA GERMANY USA ITALY NETHERLANDS CHINA NETHERLAN GERMANY CHINA BRAZIL GERMANY INDIA GERMANY POLAND BELGIUM FRANCE BRAZIL USA FRANCE TURKEY SPAIN BELGIUM NETHERLANDS SPAIN FRANCE CHINA JAPAN BELGIUM CANADA SINGAPORE NETHERLANDS IRELAND BELGIUM KOREA UK KOREA ITALY INDIA GREECE GREECE UK GREECE GREECE USA FRANCE CHINA GERMANY GERMANY UK INDIA USA CHINA ITALY USA BELGIUM KOREA GERMANY GERMANY UK JAPAN KOREA USA IRELAND BELGIUM TURKEY MEXICO NETHERLA ITALY THAILAND NETHERLANDS FRANCE JAPAN NETHERLANDS SPAIN ITALY BELGIUM FRANCE SINGAPORE INDIA FRANCE ITALY BELGIUM CHINA GREECE GREECE GREECE GREECE GLOBAL TRADE: KEY PLAYERS BY PRODUCT CATEGORY 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% Food 6% 4% 2% % -2% 2% 16% 12% 8% 4% % Beverages 6% 3% % -3% -6% % -4% Tobacco Textiles 2% 15% 1% 5% % 1,5 1,5 -,5 45% 36% 27% 18% 9% % 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Clothing Plastics 52% 2% 16%,9 39% 26% 13% % % -2% -4% -6% 12% 8% 4% %,6,3 -,3 Chemicals Pharmaceuticals 16% 12% 8% 4% % 8% 4% % -4% 2% 15% 1% 5% 1,5 1,5 % -,5 * Left axis: Share 216 / * Right axis: Change of the share 9-16 Green colour: Increasing share / Purple colour: Decreasing share 24

25 CHINA GERMANY CHINA INDIA CHINA USA BELGIUM USA GERMANY ISRAEL JAPAN CANADA GERMANY ITALY POLAND USA FRANCE ITALY ITALY UK SWEDEN JAPAN KOREA FINLAND SPAIN MEXICO FRANCE RUSSIA NETHERLANDS BRAZIL CHINA GREECE GREECE GREECE USA GERMANY NETHERLANDS KOREA MEXICO JAPAN SINGAPORE THAILAND MALAYSIA CHINA CHINA GERMANY GREECE INDIA SINGAPORE JAPAN BELGIUM KOREA USA ISRAEL GERMANY KOREA GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE USA USA MEXICO ITALY MALAYSIA CHINA JAPAN MEXICO CANADA SPAIN FRANCE UK RUSSIA THAILAND SPAIN GREECE GREECE GREECE GLOBAL TRADE: KEY PLAYERS BY PRODUCT CATEGORY 16% 12% 8% 4% Machinery 8% 4% % 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% Electrical equipment 8% 4% % % -4% 5% % -4% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Minerals 15% 1% 5% % -5% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Cars 1% 5% % -5% -1% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Wood/Paper 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Minerals 12% 6% % -6% 45% 36% 27% 18% 9% % ICT 6% 3% % -3% -6% * Left axis: Share 216 / * Right axis: Change of the share 9-16 Green colour: Increasing share / Purple colour: Decreasing share 25

26 GLOBAL TRADE: MAIN PRODUCT CATEGORIES OF KEY PLAYERS Origin Main export products Main markets Share Change in share Change in exports 216 [1] [2] [3] China Clothes, textiles, ICT 38%-47% 24% 98% Germany Vehicles, medicines, tobacco 15%-18% % 77% USA Chemicals, plastics, food 12%-13% 1% 66% Japan Vehicles, machines, electricals 8%-1% -13% 55% Korea Electricals, plastics, vehicles 6%-9% 6% 93% Emerging markets India Minerals, textiles, clothing 7%-13% 15% 12% Mexico Vehicles, beverages, ICT 5%-6% 38% 133% Canada Wood/paper, vehicles, food 4%-7% 9% 95% Thailand Plastics, food, minerals 2%-4% 2% 74% Poland Tobacco, wood/paper, food 2%-7% 2% 11% [1]: Share of each market in global exports of its basic products (1st column) [2]: Change in global share of basic products [3]: Change in exports of basic products 26

27 GLOBAL TRADE: DEPENDENCE ON MAIN MARKET PRODUCT [1],[2] Top 1 Top 3 Top 5 Top 1 Portable PC 74% 87% 91% 95% Lighting devices 64% 74% 8% 88% Toys 6% 73% 79% 88% Figs 59% 7% 78% 9% Women s clothing 54% 64% 74% 88% Pistachios 52% 8% 89% 97% Telecommunication equipment 51% 65% 74% 86% Pasta 5% 66% 72% 83% Shoes 49% 65% 74% 86% Olive oil 48% 81% 92% 96% Men s clothing 47% 6% 7% 84% Vinegar 47% 62% 73% 86% Olives 42% 7% 8% 93% Furskins 42% 59% 68% 84% Special textiles 4% 56% 68% 81% Manufactured tomatoes 4% 7% 84% 95% Durum wheat 4% 63% 75% 91% Cotton 38% 63% 78% 89% Seeds 38% 77% 85% 93% Furnitures 38% 53% 65% 78% Rice 37% 81% 87% 94% Mandarins 35% 69% 78% 91% Ouzo 34% 55% 67% 83% Smoked fish 34% 57% 71% 84% Sheep meat 34% 69% 83% 96% Fresh tomatoes 32% 69% 79% 94% Fish filets 31% 52% 62% 78% Oranges 3% 64% 74% 92% Watches 29% 52% 68% 85% Marble 28% 69% 8% 9% Plastics 28% 48% 56% 72% Elevators 27% 47% 61% 82% Melons 27% 57% 74% 92% Cucumbers 26% 68% 79% 88% PRODUCT [1],[2] Top 1 Top 3 Top 5 Top 1 Electric machines 25% 43% 6% 8% Yogurt 25% 47% 59% 74% Metallic products for industrial use 24% 45% 54% 69% Cosmetics 24% 47% 66% 81% Canned fruit 23% 49% 65% 82% Electricity meters 23% 51% 6% 77% Wine 23% 51% 66% 87% Jewellery 23% 48% 62% 85% Strawberries 23% 49% 72% 89% Oil seeds excl. olive oil 23% 45% 59% 79% Lemons 23% 49% 67% 91% Apples 22% 48% 67% 89% Manufactured plastics 21% 44% 54% 7% Apricots/ Peaches/Cherries 21% 53% 66% 81% Snails 21% 5% 67% 87% Copper 2% 38% 49% 67% Steel 19% 36% 48% 69% Grapes 19% 42% 59% 87% Fertilizers 19% 51% 64% 8% Special category of cheese (feta) 18% 44% 57% 74% Pulp products 18% 41% 5% 7% Chocolate 18% 37% 51% 75% Paint colours 17% 4% 52% 73% Juices 17% 36% 49% 73% Pharmaceuticals 16% 37% 52% 77% Internal combustion engines 16% 37% 51% 72% Lead 16% 42% 56% 75% Honey 16% 39% 52% 74% Fresh fish 15% 32% 42% 59% Tobacco 15% 33% 45% 66% Primary plastics 14% 33% 47% 73% Ice cream 14% 4% 55% 77% Jams 14% 35% 49% 74% Aluminium 13% 3% 44% 66% Water 13% 32% 47% 73% Biscuits 12% 29% 42% 68% Cement 11% 29% 43% 66% [1]: The dynamic products in frame (purple and orange) are divided accordingly into two categories: - Basic products: Accounting for over 1 per cent of Greek exports and, likewise, over 1 per cent of global exports. - Emerging products: With global share of exports over 1 per cent and increasing market share over time [2]: Rating based on dependence from main destination (1. column: main market share) 27

28 GREEK EXPORTS: BASIC PRODUCT CATEGORIES Basic trading sectors sectors trade Exports growth rate % 9% 8% 7% 6% 8% 9% 8% 16% 5% 5% 5% 7% 6% 13% 7% Other Beverages Cars Tobacco Minerals Textiles Machinery Decreasing share Total ICT Wood/Paper Metals Chemicals Food Plastics Electrical equipment 36% 83% 81% 68% 65% 49% 44% 39% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 7% 6% 18% 15% 23% 25% 7% 6% 9% 8% 9% Clothing Pharmaceuticals Wood/Paper Electrical equipment ICT Increasing share Plastics Chemicals Metals Machinery Beverages Pharmaceuticals Minerals Tobacco Textiles Clothing Cars Other 37% 28% 26% 21% 11% 7% 51% % 8% EU EU 217 Food -6% -1% 4% 9% EU 28

29 GREEK EXPORTS: CHANGE IN SHARE BY PRODUCT CATEGORY Shares growth rate 9-17 /World /ΕU ΕU/World Total greek exports ICT[,5%] -24% 12% -15% 26% -11% -11% Wood/Paper[,1%] 4% 26% -17% Chemicals[,18%] -2% 1% -11% Metals[,3%] -4% 6% -1% Food[,56%] -19% -8% -11% Plastics[,17%] -22% -12% -11% Pharmaceuticals[,26%] -22% -19% -4% Tobacco[1,62%] -23% -2% -4% Machinery[,6%] -28% -18% -13% Beverages[,25%] -28% -22% -9% Electrical equipment[,7%] -29% -17% -15% Minerals[,22%] -31% -14% -2% Textiles[,3%] -41% -23% -24% Clothing[,18%] -5% Cars[,2%] -7% -8% -4% % 4% -69% -45% -7% -2% 3% -1% -4% -4% -2% % 29

30 GREEK EXPORTS: MAPPING OF BASIC PRODUCT CATEGORIES Tobacco Beverages Food Clothing Metals Textiles Pharmaceutic Chemicals als Plastics High global share & decreasing High global share & increasing Low global share & decreasing Low global share & increasing Machinery Electrical goods Vehicles Wood/paper ICT * The high/low global share is determined by whether it is larger/ smaller than the total share of Greek exports on global markets (.16%) Product 217 share Change in share % change in level of exports Main competitors Basic products Tobacco 1.6% -23% 11% Portugal, Russia, Romania Food.6% -19% 49% Korea, Singapore, Hungary Textiles.3% -41% 7% Israel, Sweden, Hungary Metals.3% -4% 68% Slovenia, Bulgaria, S. Arabia Pharmaceuticals.3% -22% 26% Portugal, Brazil, Mexico Emerging products: Plastics.2% -22% 44% Ireland, Lithuania, Luxemburg Chemicals.2% -2% 65% N. Zealand, Bulgaria, Slovenia Wood/paper.1% 4% 81% Ireland, Bulgaria, Croatia ICT.1% 12% 83% Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia 3

31 GREEK EXPORTS: BASIC PRODUCT CATEGORIES Food Tobacco ,8%,6%,4%,2%,%,6,5,4,3,2,1 2,5% 2,% 1,5% 1,%,5%,% Plastics Chemicals 1,8,6,4,2,25%,2%,15%,1%,5% 1,8 1,5 1,2,9,6,3,2%,16%,12%,8%,4%,%,% Textiles Clothing 1,6% 1,2,4%,8,6,4,2,5%,4%,3%,2%,1% 1,8,6,4,2,32%,24%,16%,8%,%,% Wood/Paper Beverages,5,4,3,2,1,15%,1%,95%,9%,85%,8%,25,2,15,1,5,4%,32%,24%,16%,8%,75%,% billions (left axis) Global share (right axis) 31

32 GREEK EXPORTS: BASIC PRODUCT CATEGORIES Cars Pharmaceuticals 1,2,15% 1,5,4%,9,6,3,12%,9%,6%,3% 1,2,9,6,3,32%,24%,16%,8%,%,% Metals Electrical equipment 4,4%,8,1% 3,2 2,4 1,6,8,32%,24%,16%,8%,6,4,2,8%,6%,4%,2%,%,% Minerals Machinery,6,5,4,3,2,1,35%,28%,21%,14%,7% 1,8,6,4,2,1%,8%,6%,4%,2%,%,% ICT 1,8,6,4,2,8%,6%,4%,2%,% billions (left axis) Global share (right axis) 32

33 GREEK EXPORTS: DEPENDENCE ON MAIN MARKET PRODUCT (1) Dependence from the main market [2] % change of the share Main destination Smoked fish 97% Netherlands Vinegar 62% -24% Italy Portable PC 62% 2249% Italy Marble 55% 143% China Lead 54% -19% Italy Snails 54% 855% Spain Fresh tomatoes 52% 7% Bulgaria Olive oil 52% -16% Italy Oil seeds excl. olive oil 52% -14% Italy Durum wheat 51% 157% Tunisia Seeds 49% 26% Italy Water 48% 39% Cyprus Cement 48% 719% U.S.A. Ouzo 46% -26% Germany Cotton 46% -19% Turkey Yogurt 43% 145% Italy Fresh fish 43% -9% Italy Sheep meat 43% -4% Italy Apples 4% Egypt Wine 39% -13% Germany Rice 35% 455% Turkey Electricity meters 35% 1185% Netherlands Manufactured tomatoes Special category of cheese (feta) 33% 23% UK 33% -2% Germany Grapes 33% -4% Germany Pistachios 31% 58% Italy Telecommunication equipment 31% 75% Cyprus Fish filets 3% 7% Italy Toys 3% 168% Romania Mandarins 28% 21% Romania Olives 3% 16% U.S.A. Honey 27% 11% Germany Watches 27% -18% Cyprus Biscuits 26% -44% Germany Furskins 26% -37% Russia PRODUCT (1) Dependence from the main market [2] % change of the share Main destination Pasta 26% -39% Italy Shoes 25% -27% Cyprus Women s clothing 23% -1% Germany Jewellery 23% 61% UK Lemons 21% 68% Bulgaria Aluminium 21% -9% Italy Fertilizers 21% 17% Bulgaria Primary plastics 21% -25% Turkey Lighting devices 21% 549% Bulgaria Tobacco 2% 31% Belgium Electric machines 2% 28% Germany Canned fruit 19% -35% Germany Furnitures 19% 7% Germany Men s clothing 19% -21% Cyprus Pulp products 19% -17% China Oranges 19% -3% Romania Apricots/Peaches/Ch erries 19% -5% Romania Figs 18% 12% Canada Melons 18% -25% Italy Pharmaceuticals 18% -49% Germany Cucumbers 18% UK Ice cream 18% -6% Cyprus Strawberries 17% 6295% Lithuania Special textiles 17% -32% Bulgaria Juices 15% -21% Netherlands Copper 15% -15% Italy Jams 14% -26% Russia Chocolate 14% -26% Cyprus Internal combustion engines Manufactured plastics 14% 2948% Singapore 12% 82% Germany Steel 12% 12% Romania Cosmetics 12% 12% Cyprus Metallic products for industrial use 11% 85% Italy Plastics 1% 1% Italy Elevators 1% 36% Australia Paint colours 9% 1% Cyprus [1]: The dynamic products in frame (purple and orange) are divided accordingly into two categories: - Basic products: Accounting for over 1 per cent of Greek exports and, likewise, over 1 per cent of global exports. - Emerging products: With global share of exports over 1 per cent and increasing market share over time [2]: Rating based on dependence from main destination (1. column: share of main destination market) 33

34 CHARTBOOΚ 218:Q2 1. BUSINESS ACTIVITY INVESTMENTS BUSINESS SECTOR BUSINESS ACTIVITY EXPORTS FOOD METALS MINERALS CHEMICALS PHARMACEUTICALS PLASTICS CLOTHING INDUSTRY HOTELS TRANSPORT CONSTRUCTION SERVICES RETAIL WHOLESALE & MOTOR VEHICLE 4. TRADE 34

35 Q1:8 Q1:1 Q1:12 Q1:14 Q1:16 Q1:18 Q2:9 Q2:1 Q2:11 Q2:13 Q2:15 Q2:17 Capital/Labour Q1:1 Q1:12 Q1:14 Q1:16 Q1:18 Q2:96 Q2:98 Q2: Q2:2 Q2:4 Q2:6 Q2:8 Q2:1 1. BUSINESS SECTOR BUSINESS SECTOR SHARE in GDP 65% The recovery of the economic climate continues as the respective ratio has improved by 8.3 pps over the last 12 months (June ), while employment rates also look better (+1.5 per cent over the period 217Q1 218Q2). Value added & business climate [2] Employment 12, 6,, -6, -12, -18, Construction Services Trade Value added of business sector (annual growth rate, left axis) Business confidence index (3 months m.a., right axis) Industry Employment (%, right axis) Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Production of business sector Main deficit factor [1] , 2, 1, Business value added (VA) (bn, left axis) Share of Greek business VA in EU (right axis) CAPITAL DEFICIT LABOUR DEFICIT, Share of Greek population in EU (right axis) EU Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Business sector: Main sectors [2] Value added Employment Year 217 Share Annual growth rate Share Annual growth rate ΕU ΕU ΕU ΕU Industry 27% 31% +8,% +3,2% 19% 26% +4% +1% Construction 4% 8% -13,2% +4,3% 6% 1% +1% +2% Trade 2% 17% +2,5% +3,4% 3% 21% +3% % Transports 12% 8% +2,5% +3,4% 8% 8% +2% +3% Tourism 12% 5% +2,5% +3,4% 14% 7% -1% +1% ICT & Telecoms 6% 7% -,7% +2,% 3% 4% +1% +2% Scientific activities 1% 17% +2,3% +3,1% 13% 15% +3% +2% Other 9% 8% +6,2% +,7% 7% 9% +13% +3% Total business sector 1% 1% +3,3% +3,% 1% 1% +3% +2% % of business sector 65,% 72,4% 61,8% 66,1% Sources: Eurostat, ELSTAT, NBG estimates [1] Share of businesses that face deficit mainly in capital/share of businesses that face deficit mainly in employment [2] Excluding agriculture, finance and public sector (including education and health services), as well as private house rents. [3] Annual growth rate Last available data Value added: 217, Employment: 4 th quarter 217 NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 35

36 1. BUSINESS SECTOR in billion in billion Q1:8 Q1:9 Q1:1 Q1:11 Q1:12 Q1:13 Q1:14 Q1:15 Q1:16 Q1:17 Q1:18 Q2:11 Q2:13 Q2:15 Q2:17 (from -1 to 1) in billion Q1:8 Q1:9 Q1:1 Q1:11 Q1:12 Q1:13 Q1:14 Q1:15 Q1:16 Q1:17 Q1:18 Q3:3 Q3:4 Q3:5 Q3:6 Q3:7 Q3:8 Q3:9 Q3:1 Q3:11 Q3:12 Q3:13 Q3:14 Q3:15 Q3:16 Q3:17 BUSINESS SECTOR INVESTMENTS SHARE in TOTAL INVESTMENTS 58% Investments continue to remain at low levels, with data for investment activity in the industrial sector showing a decline of per cent over the 12 month period, mainly due to lower investments in vehicles (-43 per cent) and lower investments in the sectors of services and trade (-24.3 per cent and per cent respectively). Business investment per type [1] Business investment per sector [1] 6 3 Total investment: -43% Vehicles (-49%) Machinery (-58%) Buildings (-22%) Intellectual property (+9%) 6 3 Total investment: -43% Construction (-53%) Services (-52%) Trade (-43%) Industry (-11%) Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Financing of business sector Demand for financing 12 6 Total funding: -14% Adjustments * NPEs Rest loans Industry: -27% Trade: -31% Tourism: + 5% Shipping: -53% Other services: -32% Construction: -22% SMEs Large companies Source: Bank of, NBG Estimates Source: Bank of, NBG Estimates Business sector: Investment Share in annual investment Annual growth rate ( ) Investment/ Value added (216) Value added/ Capital stock (216) EU EU EU EU Industry 35% 39% +2% +4% 2% 36% 22% 26% Construction 6% 4% +22% +4% 18% 14% 22% 42% Trade 12% 9% +1% +3% 9% 15% 42% 67% Transportation 2% 12% +18% +4% 24% 44% 11% 17% Tourism 5% 2% +6% +3% 6% 12% 37% 4% ICT & Telecoms 8% 9% +1% +1% 17% 37% 13% 41% Scientific activities 9% 17% -1% +7% 13% 28% 37% 48% Other 5% 8% -8% -3% 9% 24% 26% 15% Total business sector 1% 1% Share of business sector in total investment 57,5% 57,6% Sources: Eurostat, ELSTAT, NBG estimates [1] Changes refer to the period [2] Adjustments include write-offs, reclassifications and debt repayments NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 36

37 2. INDUSTRY Q2:2 Q2:3 Q2:4 Q2:5 Q2:6 Q2:7 Q2:8 Q2:9 Q2:1 Q2:11 Q2:13 Q2:15 Q2:17 Q2:19 % of industry Μαϊ 15 Σεπ 15 Ιαν 16 Μαϊ 16 Σεπ 16 Ιαν 17 Μαϊ 17 Σεπ 17 Ιαν 18 Μαϊ 18 INDUSTRY SHARE in GDP 1% The estimates for employment are positive with the ratio remaining in positive territory, up by 1 pp on the previous year. At the same time, the confidence index shows encouraging signs since, even though in negative territory, it continues to move above the 24-month average (-1.6 vs -3.9 pps). Employment [1] Industrial production Future employment index (next 6 months, left axis) Employment (annual growth rate, right axis) Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Industrial production (left axis) Business confidence (right axis) Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Main macroeconomic indicators [2] Main financial indicators [3] Production Exports 12Μ 3Μ 12Μ 3Μ EBITDA margin Asset turnover Debt to Ebitda +2,7% +,6% +9,3% +9,3% Europe +4,1% +2,7% +6,2% +3,2% Food 24,6 % Sources: Eurostat, ELSTAT, NBG estimates +1,5% -1,4% +4,4% +1,4% Beverages 4,3% +,9% +2,6% +7,7% +8,5% Clothing 2,% -6,4% -3,2% +1,3% -2,2% Furniture 1,6% +4,7% -7,3% +12,9% +14,2% Chemicals 5,2% +3,% +1,5% +11,3% +8,% Pharmaceutical 5,1% +21,% +22,3% +16,5% +22,2% Plastics 4,3% +,2% -2,7% +7,4% +1,9% Minerals 5,5% -2,2% -,5% +13,4% +1,4% Metals 4,9% +12,6% +5,9% +24,5% +17,7% Metal products 7,% -1,3% +3,9% +9,3% -2,9% Electrical equip. 2,4% -4,1% -12,8% +9,% 8,1% Machinery 4,3% +4,9% +7,9% +2,3% +3,7% 7,1% Europe 8,7% Food 7,2% Beverages 7,1% Clothing 5,% Furniture 3,% Chemicals 8,8% Pharmaceutical 8,4% Plastic 12,5% Minerals 9,1% Metals 9,2% Metal products 5,2% Electrical equip. 6,2% Machinery 8,% Sources: Icap database, NBG estimates [1] 4 quarters lead of employment index [2] Latest available data i.production May 218, ii. Exports May 218 for and April 218 for EU [3] Data for year 216. NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 37

38 Q2:8 Q2: in billion annual growth rate annual growth rate Q2:8 Q2:1 in billion Q2:98 Q2: Q2:2 Q2:4 Q2:6 Q2:8 Q2:1 annual growth rate 2. INDUSTRY SHARE in EU EXPORTS EXPORTS,4% Exports (non-oil) are on an upward trend (+9.5 per cent over the last 12-month [1] and 3-month periods [1] ), with metals and pharmaceuticals standing out (+24.5 per cent and per cent respectively [1] ), while as regards markets, China and Turkey stand out for their strong momentum (+4 per cent and +22 per cent respectively over the last 12 months [1] ). Export orders & industrial production Extroversion [2] of industry s subsectors 18 14, , ,2 Value added of industry (annual growth rate, left axis) Export order index (one year lead, right axis) Food Chemicals Plastics Metals Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Greek exports [3][4] Exports breakdown [2] Total exports % 4,8 High growht +48% Low growth + 4% Food 25% 15% 6% 6% 5% 22% 2,4 Chemicals Rest high gth Metals Clothing Rest low gth Europe 8% 6% 7% 8% 5% 13% 16% 25% Food Metals Pharmaceuticals Chemicals Clothing Plastics Textiles Minerals Elctrical eq. Machinery Vechicles Rest products Greek exports of goods [3] Greek exports to EU 6, Top 3 EU 27: 32% 217: 28% Rest EU 27: 39% 217: 39% Extra EU 27: 29% 217: 33% , -4-1, -8-2 Italy Germany Cyprus Bulgaria UK Rest EU USA Rest world EU GDP growth (left axis) Greek exports to EU (excl. oil, right axis) Sources: Eurostat, NBG estimates Sources: Eurostat, Ameco, NBG estimates [1] Annual growth rate, last available data: May 218 [2] Exports as share of sector s total sales [3] Excluding oil sector [4] As high (low) growth are classified sectors with growth of exports higher (lower) than the average growth of total exports NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 38

39 2. INDUSTRY in billion (from -1 to 1) Q2:2 Q2:8 Q2:4 Q2:6 Q2:1 Q2:8 Q2:1 annual growth rate ΥοΥ % change annual ΥοΥ growth % change rate in million Q2:9 Q2:7 Q2:1 Q2:8 Q2:11 Q2:9 Q2:1 Q2:11 Q2:13 Q2:13 Q2:15 Q2:15 Q2:17 Q2:17 SHARE in EXPORTS FOOD 25% Efforts of recovery continue in the food sector despite the deceleration in the short-term trend of industrial production (+1.5 per cent over the last 12 months and -1.4 per cent in the last quarter [2] ) driven mainly by exports (+4.4 per cent over the last 12 months [2] and +1.4 per cent in the last quarter [2] ) mainly of olive oil and fruit (+1 and +9 per cent respectively over the last 12 months [2] ). Production [1] Exports of main products last 12 months [2] +1% % Confidence index (left axis) Industrial production index (right axis) Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Fruits Veget. Fish Dairy Oil Cereals Other Main export markets Producer price index 1,4 Top 3 EU 27: 45% 217: 39% Rest EU 27: 34% 217: 38% Extra EU 27: 21% 217: 22% 4 2, -2 Italy Germany UK Bulgaria Cyprus Rest EU USA Rest world Food Industry (excl. oil) Main financial indicators [3] Main macroeconomic indicators [3] EU EU ROA 5,8% 9,6% Share in GDP 2,9% 1,6% EBITDA margin 7,2% 6,9% Asset turnover Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA Receivables to Sales 31% 14% growth of assets -7% +8% Industrial production Producer price index Exports 12 months [2] +1,5% +1,2% 3 months [2] -1,4% -,2% 12 months [2] +,2% +2,% 3 months [2] -,9% +,3% 12 months [2] +4,4% +4,2% 3 months [2] +1,4% +,4% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG estimates Sources: Eurostat, ELSTAT, NBG estimates [1] Industrial production index is 2 quarters moving average, Confidence index Q2 218 estimated based on June 218 [2] Annual growth rate, last available data: May 218 (EU exports: April 218, Greek Producer price index: June 218) [3] Reference years Main financial indices: 216, GDP: 216 NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 39

40 2. INDUSTRY (from -1 to 1) in billion Q2:2 Q2:8 Q2:4 Q2:6 Q2:1 Q2:8 Q2:1 annual ΥοΥ % growth change rate annual ΥοΥ growth % change rate in million Q1:8 Q2:7 Q1:9 Q2:8 Q1:1 Q2:9 Q1:11 Q2:1 Q1:12 Q2:11 Q1:13 Q1:14 Q2:13 Q1:15 Q1:16 Q2:15 Q1:17 Q1:18 Q2:17 SHARE in EXPORTS BASIC METALS 15% This sector continues to show a robust export dynamic (+25 per cent over the last 12 months [2] and +18 per cent over the last quarter [2] ) with copper (+57 per cent over the last 12 months [2] ) being the main contributor to growth in industrial production (+13 per cent over the last 12 months [2] and +6 per cent over the last quarter [2] ). Production [1] Exports of main products last 12 months [2] +57% +29% +11% Confidence index (left axis) Industrial production index (right axis) Aluminium Iron Copper Other metals Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Main export markets Producer price index [3] Top 3 EU 27: 35% 217: 31% Rest EU 27: 37% 217: 37% Extra EU 27: 27% 217: 32% , , Italy Germany Bulgaria Romania France Rest EU Turkey Rest world Aluminium (left axis) Copper (left axis) PPI (non iron metals, right axis) Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg NBG Estimates Main financial indicators [4] Main macroeconomic indicators [4] EU EU ROA 4,8% 7,% Share in GDP 1,1%,5% EBITDA margin 9,2% 6.% Asset turnover Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA Receivables to Sales 19% 16% growth of assets -3% +13% Industrial production Producer price index Exports 12 months [2] +12,6% +3,4% 3 months [2] +5,9% +,9% 12 months [2] +4,1% +7,9% 3 months [2] +4,2% +5,% 12 months [2] +24,5% +12,3% 3 months [2] +17,7% +7,6% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG estimates Sources: Eurostat, ELSTAT, NBG estimates [1] Industrial production index is 2 quarters moving average, Confidence index Q2 218 estimated based on June 218 [2] Annual growth rate, last available data: May 218 (EU exports: April 218, Greek Producer price index: June 218) [3] 2 quarters lead for metal prices [4] Reference years Main financial indices: 216, GDP: 216 NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 4

41 2. INDUSTRY (from -1 to 1) in billion Q2:2 Q2:8 Q2:4 Q2:6 Q2:1 Q2:8 Q2:1 annual ΥοΥ growth % change rate annual growth rate ΥοΥ % change in million Q2:9 Q2:7 Q2:8 Q2:9 Q2:11 Q2:1 Q2:11 Q2:13 Q2:13 Q2:15 Q2:15 Q2:17 Q2:17 SHARE in EXPORTS NON-METALLIC MINERALS 4% Exports despite the significant weakening of their short-term trend (+13.4 per cent over the last 12 months [2] and +1.4 per cent over the last quarter [2] ) with marble products leading the way (+33 per cent over the last 12 months [2] ), continue to boost the sector's efforts to stabilize the level of industrial production (-2.2 per cent over the last 12 months [2] and -.5 per cent over the last quarter [2] ). Production [1] Exports of main products last 12 months [2] % % Confidence index (left axis) Industrial production index (right axis) Marbles Cement Other non metallic Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Main export markets Producer price index,2 Top 3 EU 27: 18% 217: 7% Rest EU 27: 29% 217: 11% Extra EU 27: 53% 217: 82% 4 2, -2 Bulgaria Italy Rest EU China USA Israel UAE Rest world Non-metallic minerals Industry (excl. oil) Main financial indicators [3] Main macroeconomic indicators [3] EU EU ROA 3,6% 7,1% Share in GDP,6%,5% EBITDA margin 9,1% 9,9% Asset turnover Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA Receivables to Sales 42% 22% growth of assets -12% +4% Industrial production Producer price index Exports 12 months [2] -2,2% +3,8% 3 months [2] -,5% -,7% 12 months [2] +1,% +1,1% 3 months [2] -,1% +1,5% 12 months [2] +13,4% +3,7% 3 months [2] +1,4%,% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG estimates Sources: Eurostat, ELSTAT, NBG estimates [1] Industrial production index is 2 quarters moving average, Confidence index Q2 218 estimated based on June 218 [2] Annual growth rate, last available data: May 218 (EU exports: April 218, Greek Producer price index: June 218) [3] Reference years Main financial indices: 216, GDP: 216 NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 41

42 2. INDUSTRY (from -1 to 1) in billion Q2:2 Q2:8 Q2:4 Q2:6 Q2:1 Q2:8 Q2:1 ΥοΥ % change annual ΥοΥ growth % change rate in million Q2:9 Q2:7 Q2:8 Q2:1 Q2:9 Q2:11 Q2:1 Q2:11 Q2:13 Q2:13 Q2:15 Q2:15 Q2:17 Q2:17 SHARE in EXPORTS CHEMICALS 6% The sustained dynamic of exports (+11.3 per cent over the last 12 months [2] and +8. per cent over the last quarter [2] ) with fertilizers and paints providing significant input (+12.4 per cent and per cent respectively over the last quarter) contributes to maintaining the positive trend in the sector s industrial production (+3. per cent over the last 12 months [2] and +1.5 per cent over the last quarter [2] ). Production [1] Exports of main products last 12 months [2] % +11% + 5% Confidence index (left axis) Industrial production index (right axis) Cosmetics Fertilizers Pigments Other Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Main export markets Producer price index,3 Top 3 EU 27: 3% 217: 27% Rest EU 27: 28% 217: 36% Extra EU 27: 42% 217: 36% 6 3, -3-6 Cyprus Italy Bulgaria Germany Romania Rest EU Turkey Rest world Chemicals Industry (excl. oil) Main financial indicators [3] Main macroeconomic indicators [3] EU EU ROA 6,5% 1,2% Share in GDP,7% 1,1% EBITDA margin 8,8% 14.2% Asset turnover Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA Receivables to Sales 36% 16% growth of assets -8% +7% Industrial production Producer price index Exports 12 months [2] +3,% +2,4% 3 months [2] +1,5% +,4% 12 months [2] +1,2% +2,9% 3 months [2] +,8% +1,2% 12 months [2] +11,3% +6,2% 3 months [2] +8,% +4,1% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG estimates Sources: Eurostat, ELSTAT, NBG estimates [1] Industrial production index is 2 quarters moving average, Confidence index Q2 218 estimated based on June 218 [2] Annual growth rate, last available data: May 218 (EU exports: April 218, Greek Producer price index: June 218) [3] Reference years Main financial indices: 216, GDP: 216 NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 42

43 2. INDUSTRY (from -1 to 1) in billion Q2:4 Q2:8 Q2:6 Q2:1 Q2:8 Q2:1 annual growth rate ΥοΥ % change in million annual ΥοΥ % growth change rate Q2:7 Q2:9 Q2:8 Q2:9 Q2:11 Q2:1 Q2:11 Q2:13 Q2:13 Q2:15 Q2:15 Q2:17 Q2:17 SHARE in EXPORTS PHARMACEUTICALS 6% Exports (+16.5 per cent over the last 12 months [2] and per cent over the last quarter [2] ) continue to be the driving force behind the upward momentum of the sector s industrial production (+21. per cent over the last 12 months [2] and per cent over the last quarter [2] ) as the domestic market still shows no signs of revival (-2.4 per cent over the last 12 months). Production [1] Exports of main products last 12 months [2] -3% +25% Confidence index (left axis) Industrial production index (right axis) Medicines Antibiotics Other Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Main export markets Producer price index,3 Top 3 EU 27: 63% 217: 39% Rest EU 27: 29% 217: 45% Extra EU 27: 6% 217: 16% 4-4, Germany UK France Cyprus Italy Spain Rest EU Rest world Pharmaceuticals Industry (excl. oil) Main financial indicators [3] Main macroeconomic indicators [3] EU EU ROA 6,4% 11,2% Share in GDP,3%,9% EBITDA margin 8,4% 19.5% Asset turnover Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA Receivables to Sales 34% 18% growth of assets -4% 12% Industrial production Producer price index Exports 12 months [2] +21,% +3,2% 3 months [2] +22,3% +4,8% 12 months [2] -3,9% -1,2% 3 months [2] -4,% -2,9% 12 months [2] +16,5% +5,2% 3 months [2] +22,2% +5,2% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG estimates Sources: Eurostat, ELSTAT, NBG estimates [1] Industrial production index is 2 quarters moving average, Confidence index Q2 218 estimated based on June 218 [2] Annual growth rate, last available data: May 218 (EU exports: April 218, Greek Producer price index: June 218) [3] Reference years Main financial indices: 216, GDP: 216 NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 43

44 2. INDUSTRY in billion (from -1 to 1) Q2:2 Q2:8 Q2:4 Q2:6 Q2:1 Q2:8 Q2:1 annual growth rate ΥοΥ % change annual ΥοΥ growth % change rate in million Q2:9 Q2:7 Q2:8 Q2:1 Q2:9 Q2:11 Q2:1 Q2:11 Q2:13 Q2:13 Q2:15 Q2:15 Q2:17 Q2:17 SHARE PLASTICS 4% in EXPORTS The stagnation in exports of plastic products circa 4 per cent of the sector s exports (+2.1 per cent over the last 12 months [2] and -5.9 per cent over the last quarter [2] ) has dampened the sector's export growth (+7.4 per cent over the last 12 months [2] and +1.9 per cent over the last quarter [2] ) while also having a negative impact on the sector s industrial production (+.2 per cent over the last 12 months [2] and -2.7 per cent over the last quarter [2] ). Production [1] Exports of main products last 12 months [2] + 2% +12% Confidence index (left axis) Industrial production index (right axis) Plastic Plastic products Other Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Main export markets Producer price index Top 3 EU 27: 29% 217: 32% Rest EU 27: 36% 217: 34% Extra EU 27: 35% 217: 34% 6 4,2 2, -2 Bulgaria Romania Italy Germany France Rest EU Turkey Rest world Plastics Industry (excl. oil) Main financial indicators [3] Main macroeconomic indicators [3] EU EU ROA 8,6% 12,% Share in GDP,2%,3% EBITDA margin 12,5% 1,1% Asset turnover Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA Receivables to Sales 34% 18% growth of assets -14% +6% Industrial production Producer price index Exports 12 months [2] +,2% +4,7% 3 months [2] -2,7% +1,5% 12 months [2] +,8% +1,1% 3 months [2] +,4% +1,% 12 months [2] +7,4% +7,5% 3 months [2] +1,9% +2,2% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG estimates Sources: Eurostat, ELSTAT, NBG estimates [1] Industrial production index is 2 quarters moving average, Confidence index Q2 218 estimated based on June 218 [2] Annual growth rate, last available data: May 218 (EU exports: April 218, Greek Producer price index: June 218) [3] Reference years Main financial indices: 216, GDP: 216 NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 44

45 2. INDUSTRY in billion (from -1 to 1) Q2:2 Q2:8 Q2:4 Q2:6 Q2:1 Q2:8 Q2:1 annual ΥοΥ % growth change rate annual growth rate ΥοΥ % change in million Q2:9 Q2:7 Q2:8 Q2:9 Q2:11 Q2:1 Q2:11 Q2:13 Q2:13 Q2:15 Q2:15 Q2:17 Q2:17 SHARE CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR 5% in EXPORTS The significant decline in the short-term trend of exports has reversed the sector s long-term progress (+1.3 per cent over the last 12 months vs -2.2 per cent in the last quarter [2] ), meaning that the sector s industrial production remains under pressure (-6.4 per cent over the last 12 months [2] and -3.2 over the last quarter [2] ). Production [1] Exports of main products % last 12 months [2] + 8% Confidence index (left axis) Industrial production index (right axis) Clothing Footwear Fuskins Leather Other Sources: Eurostat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Main export markets Producer price index,3 Top 3 EU 27: 37% 217: 34% Rest EU 27: 36% 217: 39% Extra EU 27: 27% 217: 27% 4 2, -2 Germany Italy Cyprus Bulgaria Denmark Rest EU Russia Rest world Clothing & footwear Industry (excl. oil) Main financial indicators [3] Main macroeconomic indicators [3] EU EU ROA 3,3% 9,7% Share in GDP,2%,7% EBITDA margin 5,% 8,4% Asset turnover Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA Receivables to Sales 34% 18% growth of assets -14% +6% Industrial production Producer price index Exports 12 months [2] -6,4% +1,% 3 months [2] -3,2% +,4% 12 months [2] +,2% +,4% 3 months [2] -,3% +,4% 12 months [2] +1,3% +7,2% 3 months [2] -2,2% +3,3% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG estimates Sources: Eurostat, ELSTAT, NBG estimates [1] Industrial production index is 2 quarters moving average, Confidence index Q2 218 estimated based on June 218 [2] Annual growth rate, last available data: May 218 (EU exports: April 218, Greek Producer price index: June 218) [3] Reference years Main financial indices: 216, GDP: 216 NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 45

46 3. SERVICES million tourists * billion annual growth Q4-1 Q2-11 Q4-11 Q2-12 Q4-12 Q2-13 Q4-13 Q2-14 Q4-14 Q2-15 Q4-15 Q2-16 Q4-16 Q2-17 Q4-17 Q2-18* HOTELS SHARE in EU OVERNIGHT STAYS 7% Tourist receipts recorded an increase of 14 per cent over the last 12 months [1], mainly due to a strong second quarter in 218 and mainly from Germany (+37 per cent over the last 12 months). For the coming high-season months, there is high competition from Turkey, which is in recovery mode (+36 per cent in bookings over the last 12 months), favoured by the devaluation of the Turkish lira as well as the low-cost strategy of its hotels Tourist arrivals Tourist arrivals % 2% 1% % -1% Tourist receipts (annual growth) Tourism receipts (annual growth) * estimate based on May 218 Other tourist arrivals (left axis) Arrivals in hotels (left axis) Tourist receipts (right axis) Source: Bank of, Eurostat, NBG Estimates -2% Receipts Daily receipts * estimate based on May 218 Source: Bank of, Eurostat, NBG Estimates Country of origin Main competitors Country of origin Receipts [2] Arrivals Receipts/ arrival Share m [1] 12m [1] 12m [1] Germany 17% 37% 24% 11% UK 15% 12% 5% 7% France 7% 17% 6% 11% US 6% 7% 2% -11% Other EU 3% 13% 9% 3% Other non-eu 25% 6% 15% -8% Total 1% 14% 12% 2% Source: Bank of, Eurostat, NBG Estimates Country of destination Receipts [2] Billion 217 Nights Receipts/ night 12m [1] 12m [1] 12m [1] Spain 6. 1% 1,9% 1,4% Italy 39. 7% 2,8% 7,6% Turkey 2. 21% 36% -11% Portugal 15. 2% 5,2% 14,3% Croatia 1. 11% 5,8% 4,7% Competitors (avg) % 1% 3,1% % 12% 2% Source: Bank of, Eurostat, Turkey Ministry of Tourism, NBG Estimates Main financial indicators Main macroeconomic indicators EU Competitors* ROA 4,1% 7,% Share in GDP (217) [3] 2,7% 1,6% EBITDA margin 18,3% 16,4% Asset turnover.2.4 Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA Occupancy rate Arrivals in hotels 12m [1] 1,6% 5,7% 3m [1] 44% 2,6% 12m [1] 12,7% 6,% 3m [1] 2,7% 3,8% Receivables to Sales 14%.8 growth of assets 12% -5% Source: Icap database, Bach database, NBG Estimates Length of stay in hotels [1] Annual growth rate. (Latest update: Receipts, Arrivals: May 218, Nights, Occupancy: April 217) [2] Receipts from non domestic tourists (including cruise). [3] GDP: estimate for 217 (q4 based on wider nace activities) * Spain, Italy, Turkey, Portugal, Croatia Source: Eurostat, El.Stat., NBG Estimates 12m [1] -3,5% -1,8% 3m [1] -6,4% -,6% NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 46

47 3. SERVICES million TEUs million tonklm 211Q2 211Q4 212Q2 212Q4 213Q2 213Q4 214Q2 214Q4 215Q2 215Q4 216Q2 216Q4 217Q2 217Q4 218Q2 % tonklm million tones yoy annual % change growth rate Q2-8 Q4-8 Q2-9 Q4-9 Q2-1 Q4-1 Q2-11 Q4-11 Q2-12 Q4-12 Q2-13 Q4-13 Q2-14 Q4-14 Q2-15 Q4-15 Q2-16 Q4-16 Q2-17 Q4-17 Q2-9 Q1-1 Q4-1 Q3-11 Q2-12 Q1-13 Q4-13 Q3-14 Q2-15 Q1-16 Q4-16 Q3-17 Q2-18 TRANSPORT SHARE In EU MARITIME TRANSPORT 4,3% Container shipping presented significant growth, with freight traffic atthe port of Piraeus growing by 18.4 per cent in the first half of the year [1]. Passenger traffic at Greek airports has been growing steadily mainly due to international flights (+12 per cent over the last 12 months [2], vs +4 per cent in the case of domestic passengers). Share of Greek ports to the European maritime transport of goods Maritime freight transport 1,2 1,,8,6,4,2, +18.4% in 218:H1 Συνολικές θαλάσσιες 4 Total μεταφορές: maritime 44% transport: 44% Μεταβολή '8-'17 Change '8-3 Λοιπά: '17-34% 2 Εμπ/τια: Other: -34% 572% Containers: 1 Ξηρό: 572% -15% Υγρό: Dry: -15% 48% Liquid: 48% Liquid bulk goods Dry bulk goods Large containers Other Road freight transport Air passenger transport 8. 8% 4% % 4% 2% % -2% 2% -4% Loaded international transport Loaded national transport Total hire/total trasport (right axis) Total National International Source: Civil Aviation Authority, NBG Estimates Main financial indicators Main macroeconomic indicators [3] EU EU ROA 7,1% 8,2% EBITDA margin 12.4% 12,8% Asset turnover Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA Share in GDP 6,2% 4,5% 3μ 12μ 3μ 12μ Employment +,6% +2,1% +1,9% +2,4% Transport of goods Road +18,6% +16,6% +6,2% +4,2% Receivables to Sales % Maritime +13,7% +1,9% +3,3% +2,7% (containers) growth of assets % +15% Maritime (other) -2,4% +1,8% +6,3% +2,8% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG Estimates [1] Annual growth rate (last available data: June 218) [2] Annual growth rate (last available data: Air passenger transport:june 218) [3] Annual growth rate (last available data: Maritime transport of goods:dec 217, Employment:Mar. 217, Road freight transport: Sept. 217) NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 47

48 3. SERVICES annual yoy % growth change rate % yoy change annual growth rate Q2-6 Q2-7 Q2-8 Q2-9 Q2-1 Q2-11 Q2-12 Q2-13 Q2-14 Q2-15 Q2-16 Q2-17 Q2-18 Q2-6 Q2-7 Q2-8 Q2-9 Q2-1 Q2-11 Q2-12 Q2-13 Q2-14 Q2-15 Q2-16 Q2-17 Q2-18 annual growth rate % yoy change Index (-1 to 1) annual yoy growth % change rate annual yoy % growth change rate Q2-5 Q2-6 Q1-6 Q4-6 Q3-7 Q2-8 Q1-9 Q4-9 Q3-1 Q2-11 Q1-12 Q4-12 Q3-13 Q2-14 Q1-15 Q4-15 Q3-16 Q2-17 Q1-18 Q2-7 Q2-8 Q2-9 Q2-1 Q2-11 Q2-12 Q2-13 Q2-14 Q2-15 Q2-16 Q2-17 Q2-18 CONSTRUCTION SHARE In GDP 2,5% Although the construction sector has remained in an overall downward spiral over the last 12 months (down 15 per cent [1] ), signs of recovery can be seen in the last quarter of mainly in buildings, which have recovered by 35.6 per cent [1]. In addition, the confidence index shows some positive signs (up by 12 pps in the last quarter [2] vs the same period last year) impacted by the improving situation in employment. Construction activity Construction cost of new residential buildings 1% 5% % -5% -1% - -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, -6, -7, -8, 1% 5% % -5% Volume of construction (left axis) Confidence indicator (right axis)* Sources: Eurostat, Elstat, European Commission, NBG Estimates Construction cost Labor cost index in construction Input prices for materials Sources: Eurostat, Elstat, BoG, NBG Estimates Residential construction activity Infrastructure activity 5% % -5% -1% 2% 1% % -1% -2% 9% 6% 3% % -3% -6% Residential building permits (s.m.)-left axis* House prices index-right axis Volume of infrastructure % payments of public investment (m.a. 4 periods) *q2 estimate based on April data Sources: Eurostat, Elstat, BoG, NBG Estimates Sources: Eurostat, Elstat, BoG, NBG Estimates Main financial indicators Main macroeconomic indicators [1] EU EU ROA 2,2% 5,5% EBITDA margin 5,1% 8,2% Share of GDP 2,5% 5,3% 3μ 12μ 3μ 12μ Asset turnover Debt to Equity Employment +1,7% +1,4% +1,3% +1,9% Volume of construction -,9% -15% +3% +3% Debt to EBITDA Buildings 35,6% -,9% +3% +4% Receivables to Sales 45% 28% Infrastructure -25% -26% +3% +3% Building permits (s.m.) +8,7% +17% +9,6% +1% growth of assets -34% +4% Construction cost,9%,6% +2% +2% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG Estimates Sources: Eurostat, BoG, NBG Estimates [1] Annual growth rate (last available data: Construction cost: June 218, Employment, Buildings, Infrastructure, Volume of construction: March 217, Building permits: April 218). [2] Annual growth rate (last available data: June 218). NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 48

49 4. TRADE Greek prices index (EU=1) Greek prices index Index (21=1) 97 Total June-8 Apr-9 Febr-1 Dec-1 Oct-11 Aug-12 June-13 Apr-14 Febr-15 Dec-15 Oct-16 Aug-17 June Beverages 115 Telecoms 13 Clothing 93 Restaurants 9 Food 86 Household appliances 82 Solid fuel 74 Pharmaceutics 73 Vehicles 81 Hotels annual growth rate %yoy change RETAIL TRADE SHARE in GDP 3,1% Retail sales presented growth over the last 12 months [1] (+.8 per cent in terms of volume) the highest increases being household appliances sales (circa +7.8 per cent over the last 12 months). The consumer price index also presented growth over the last 12 months, by circa 1.3 [2] per cent, the biggest input coming from beverages (+6.4 per cent) [2]. Retail sales and consumer confidence Retail sales index (volume) [1] % 5% -5% -15% -25% Consumer confidence (left axis) Retail sales excl. oil (right axis) Weighting 217 3m 12m Retail trade 35% 2,1% +.8% Super markets 44% 5% 1,4% Department stores 6% 2,2% 1% Specialized stores Pharmaceuticals- Cosmetics Food 4% 3,1% -,2% Clothing 8% +1,4% +2,3% Information equipment 9% +2,3% +2,6% 3% -1,2% 2,3% Household appliances 6% +7,2% +7,8% Relative prices (-Europe) Consumer price index [2] Weighting 218 3m 12m Total goods 71% +2,1% +1,3% Food 36%,1% -,5% Beverages (alcohol.) 1% +2,2% +6,4% Personal effects 1% % -,3% 218Q2 28Q2 Clothing 7% -1% -,3% Pharmaceuticals 3% -,4% -2,1% Entertainment 7% -1,2% -1,2% Household appliances 6% -1,3% -2,2% Main financial indicators ROA 2,2% 8,3% EBITDA margin 1,9% 4,5% Asset turnover Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA Receivables to Sales 5% 5% growth of assets -16% +5% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG Estimates [1] Annual growth rate (last available data: May 218) [2] Annual growth rate (last available data: June 218) EU Structure of retail trade value added EU Share of GDP 7,8% 3,6% 3,1% 4% Super market 22% 25% 44% 31% Household appliances 25% 21% 6% 12% Entertainment-Technol. 7% 7% 12% 7% Clothing 16% 12% 8% 1% Food 1% 1% 4% 6% Pharmac.-Cosmetics 7% 6% 9% 8% E-commerce %,2% 16% 4% NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 49

50 4. TRADE annual yoy % growth change rate Thousand cars % GDP Q1-7 Q4-7 Q3-8 Q2-9 Q1-1 Q4-1 Q3-11 Q2-12 Q1-13 Q4-13 Q3-14 Q2-15 Q1-16 Q4-16 Q3-17 Q2-18 Q3-7 Q2-8 Q1-9 Q4-9 Q3-1 Q2-11 Q1-12 Q4-12 Q3-13 Q2-14 Q1-15 Q4-15 Q3-16 Q2-17 Q1-18 Index (21=1) WHOLESALE TRADE & MOTOR VEHICLE TRADE SHARE in GDP 6,% Wholesale trade pursued a growth path over the last 12 months in terms of turnover (+3 per cent [1] ). Similarly, in the motor vehicle sector the latest data for car registrations reveal an upward trend (up by circa 31 per cent over the last 12 months [2] ). Wholesale trade activity Structure of wholesale trade value added EU 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% Share of GDP 4,7% 5,6% 5,% 4,6% Food 27% 24% 28% 2% Household appliances 3% 21% 16% 16% Pharmaceuticals 2% 15% 19% 13% Machinery 8% 9% 11% 16% Turnover index Employment Electric equipment 6% 5% 6% 9% Other 9% 25% 21% 25% *excl. oil, agents Trade contribution to GDP Main financial indicators (wholesale trade) 15% 1% 5% % 2,% 7,8% 2,1% 1,% 1,4% 3,6% 3,1% 4,% 4,7% 5,6% 5,% 4,6% Europe Cars Retail Wholesale EU ROA 5,4% 7,9% EBITDA margin 5,% 4,7% Asset turnover Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA Receivables to Sales 3% 17% growth of assets -12% +4% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG Estimates Car trade Main financial indicators (car trade) EU ROA 2,4% 6,2% EBITDA margin 2,8% 3,1% Asset turnover Debt to Equity Debt to EBITDA New car registrations (left axis) Turnover index-seasonally adjusted (right axis) Source: BoG, Elstat, NBG Estimates Receivables to Sales 21% 9% growth of assets -17% +3% Sources: Icap database, Bach database, NBG Estimates [1] Annual growth rate (last available data: May 217) [2] Annual growth rate (last available data: June 218) NATIONAL BANK of GREECE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT 5