GOLD PROJECTS Update. Richard Stewart Executive Vice President: Business Development. 28 July 2016

Transcription

1 GOLD PROJECTS Update Richard Stewart Executive Vice President: Business Development 28 July 2016

2 Disclaimer The information in this presentation may include forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations and projections about future events. These statements may include, without limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or including words such as target, expect, may, anticipate, estimate, will, and other words and terms of similar meaning or the negative thereof. These forward-looking statements, as well as those included in any other material discussed at the meeting, are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things, the development of Sibanye s business, general economic conditions and actions of regulators. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the events in the forward-looking statements may not occur. No representation or warranty is made that any forward-looking statement will come to pass and no reliance should be placed on any forward-looking statement. No one undertakes to publicly update or revise any such forward-looking statement. 2

3 Projects approach Dedicated project team established in 2014 to evaluate, rank and progress organic projects ensures production teams remain focused on operational delivery Projects are managed in-house with consultants and contractors enlisted for specialised inputs Project execution owners team is managed internally Projects proceed through stage gates of project investigation from concept to prefeasibility study (PFS), feasibility study (FS), approval and project execution Progression of projects is dependent on their meeting technical, commercial and strategic benchmarks Primary focus on brownfields projects that create value for all stakeholders, extend operational LoMs, enhance or sustain cash flows and provide a pre-determined return on invested capital Identified projects are assessed both at stage gates and annually at strategic and LoM planning sessions Projects structure ensures focus, accountability, and ownership 3

4 Capital allocation framework Guide corporate decisions on project funding Project investment cannot compromise dividend strategy Projects must primarily be funded from cash flow, after dividends have been paid Alternative funding options may be considered where appropriate or if returns are enhanced Organic projects and external growth opportunities are evaluated using criteria based on: strategy: alignment with Sibanye strategic framework and creation of sustainable value technical risks: project delivery (OB 2 T) financial parameters: hurdle rates Projects must meet pre-determined investment hurdle rates (real rates in ZAR) conceptual: 30% prefeasibility: 20% feasibility: 15% 2015 projects evaluated at a gold price of R450,000/kg Organic growth must be aligned with Sibanye s overall strategic framework 4

5 ORGANIC GROWTH PROJECT Kloof 4 Shaft below infrastructure project 5

6 Kloof: plan of mining right 4# A well understood ore body 6

7 Kloof: schematic of operations and geology Schematic 3D section through the Kloof ore body looking north-northwest S/O = Subcrop MR = Middelvlei Reef VCR MR K4 below infrastructure target area A low-risk incremental mining approach 7

8 K4 below infrastructure project: location and reserves 46 level target area 47 level target area Ikamva Shaft (K4) * Estimated at reserve pricing of 430,000 R/kg Description: K4 below infrastructure Reserves 2016 LoM FS Moz recovered Life of mine 2016 LoM plan (Dec 2015) K4 below infrastructure total project 0.584* 2033 Project + LoM Extends Kloof LOM by 3 years and adds an additional 80,000oz through tail management 8

9 Capital development plan Mechanised development to 46 and 47 levels for a raise-bored decline shaft (hoisting rock and material) and men by chairlifts Winder Installation 45 Level footwall access 45 to 46 Level mechanised development chairlift decline (equipped with a chairlift for men access in the permanent condition) Footwall decline shaft -34º for rock and material hoisting 45 Level hangingwall access 46 Level (First cross-cut to reef) 46.5 Level 46 to 47 Level - mechanised development 10 0 chairlift decline(equipped with a chairlift for men access in the permanent condition) 46.5 to 47.5 Level RBH shaft -34º 47 Level (First cross-cut to reef) 47.5 Level shaft bottom spillage handling and dirty water pumping Mechanised access with raisebored hoisting shaft 9

10 K4 below infrastructure project Project metrics (at R450,000/kg) Unit Feasibility study 2033 cut-off Kloof 4 Shaft LoM Year 2030 Project life Year 2015 to 2033 First reef intersection Date July 2020 Average value mined cm.g/t 2,057 Recovered yield g/t 7.45 Project capital development m 6,246 Project capital cost* Rm 691 Gold ounces produced Moz 0.616** Peak funding* Rm 709 (in 2021) Total cash costs* R/t 1,821 Total all-in costs* R/t 2,473 Total all-in costs* R/kg 331,838 * Pre tax and royalties, costs in 2015 money terms as at time of the feasibility study ** Reserves estimated at R450,000/kg Project vital statistics 10

11 Project capital K4 below infrastructure project capital Annual Rm R691 million* Labour: R229 mil Mining: R158 mil Engineering: R262 mil Contingency: R42 mil Total: R691 million Progressive Rm FS Cashflow Forecast Actual Forecast Total Progressive * Includes an annual 7.5% contingency from 2016 Capital spend is spread over seven years 11

12 Production profile Stoping centares per month (m 2 ) Milled tonnes per month (t) LoM L K4 decline Decline project Project LoM L K4 decline Decline project Project 600 Gold recovered per month (kg) Value mined (cm.g/t) LoM L K4 decline Decline project Project LoM L K4 decline Decline project Project Sustaining Kloof s life of mine 12

13 Valuation and sensitivity analysis R1.17bn project NPV (post tax) at R600,000/kg (8% discount rate) Project meets required hurdle rates at R450,000/kg and has a 21% post tax IRR at R600,000/kg Low technical risk, well understood geology and mining methods NPV (Rm) Sensitivity analysis (R600,000/kg) Gold price Operating cost Capital costs Project optimised with the mining and construction contract award to a specialised decline mining contractor Extended Kloof LoM allows enhanced tail management of other possible resources NPV (Rm) Gold price sensitivity spot price 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% IRR % 0 0% NPV IRR Robust economic returns at spot prices 13

14 ORGANIC GROWTH PROJECT Driefontein 5 Shaft below infrastructure project 14

15 Driefontein: plan of mining right Well understood geology 15

16 Driefontein: schematic of operations and geology D5 below infrastructure target area Schematic 3D section through the Driefontein ore body looking north Down-dip extension has been well studied 16

17 D5 below infrastructure project: location and reserves 8 Shaft 2 Shaft 4 Shaft 10 Shaft 6 Shaft 1 Shaft 54L Project target area Feasibility study target area Shaft L Project target area 56L - 58L Resources not considered Description: D5 below infrastructure Reserves 2016 LoM FS Moz recovered Life of mine 2016 LoM plan (Dec 2015) D5 below infrastructure total project Project + LoM Down dip extension is not grade constrained 17

18 Capital development plan D5 below infrastructure project 26 line decline to 52 Level and 25 line decline to 54 Level Hoist chamber 26 Line Decline Orepasses Hoist chamber 25 Line Decline 27 X-Cut Orepasses 26 X-Cut 50 Level 25 X-Cut 23 X-Cut 24 X-Cut 52 Level 50 to 54L chairlift 26 X-Cut 22 X-Cut 25 X-Cut 54 Level Legend: 26 X-Cut 50 Level existing access haulages and decline shafts Project capital development Ore Reserve development 54L Dams Pump chamber 26 X-Cut Line HW drive Two decline shafts accessing 52 and 54 levels 18

19 D5 below infrastructure project Project metrics (at R450,000/kg) Unit 2015 feasibility study 2042 cut-off Driefontein 5 Shaft LoM Year 2028 Project life Year 2015 to 2042 First reef intersection Date May 2021 Average value mined cm.g/t 1,567 Recovered yield g/t 6.1 Project capital development M 7,727 Project capital cost* Rm 1,016 Gold ounces produced Moz 1.861** Peak funding* Rm 969 (in 2022) Total cash costs* R/t 1,802 Total all-in costs* R/t 2,180 Total all-in costs* R/kg 359,976 * Pre tax and royalties, costs in 2015 money terms as at time of the feasibility study ** Reserves estimated at 450,000 R/kg Project vital statistics 19

20 Project capital 200 D5 below infrastructure project R1,016 million* Annual Rm Labour = R152mil Mining = R273mil Engineering = R501mil Contingency = R 90mil Total = R1,016million Progressive Rm Project Annual 2015 Actual Project Progressive 2016 Operational plan * Includes an annual 10% Contingency from 2016 Capital spend is spread over nine years 20

21 D5 below infrastructure project: upside potential Upside potential at 56 Level Stoping centares per month (m 2 ) 56 Level upside potential Milled tonnes per month (t) 56 Level upside potential 2015 LoM 52 Level 54 Level Potential 56 Level 2015 LoM 52 Level 54 Level Potential 56 Level Gold recovered per month (kg) FS no tail management Value mined (cm.g/t) Level upside potential LoM 52 Level 54 Level Potential 56 Level 2015 LoM 50L D5 Decline Project Significant upside to integrate into the LOM plan 21

22 Valuation and sensitivity analysis R2.51bn project NPV (post tax) at R600,000/kg (8% discount rate) Project meets required hurdle rates at R450,000/kg and has a 27% post tax IRR at R600,000/kg Low technical risk, well understood geology and mining methods. Significant geotechnical analysis undertaken Potential to enhance project value through specialised contractor decline development services Potential to extend project pending additional reserve definition NPV (Rm) NPV (Rm) Sensitivity analysis (R600,000/kg) Gold price Operating cost Capital costs Gold price sensitivity 35% spot price 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% NPV IRR Robust economic returns at spot prices 22

23 BEISA PROJECT Prefeasibility study 23

24 Beatrix: plan of mining right Operation with rich history 24

25 Beatrix: schematic of operations and geology Schematic 3D section through the Beatrix ore body looking north-northeast Project de-risked through existing access and historical mining 25

26 Beisa: 2016 LoM schedule and reserve declaration Beatrix Beisa Project 2016 Ore Reserve declaration Description Unit Content recovered Grade recovered Life of mine Produced content Gold Moz g/t 2029 Produced content Uranium Mlb lbs/t Substantial uranium and gold project 26

27 Beisa: 2016 LoM reserve declaration and variances Project metrics (at R430,000/kg) Unit 2016 LoM Beisa LoM Year 2029 Project life Year 2019 to 2029, 11 years Milled tons Millions Gold ounces produced Moz Uranium pounds produced MIbs Total capital* Rm 2,850 Total cash costs* R/t 973 Total all-inclusive costs* R/t 1,359 Total all-inclusive costs* R/kg 305,719* * Pre royalties and tax in 2015 money terms, iincludes uranium credits to gold costs (uranium price of R1,140/kg and gold price at R430,000/kg Project sensitive to both gold and uranium prices 27

28 Valuation and sensitivity analysis R362m project NPV (post tax) at R600,000/kg (at 8% discount rate) The project did not meet the required hurdle rate at R450,000/kg but has a 20.4% post tax IRR at R600,000/kg Low technical risk project from a mining and geological perspective Requires new uranium plant Uranium plant design is based on Ezulwini plant Final project scale and life inter-dependant on 4# gold operations NPV (Rm) Sensitivity analysis (R600,000/kg) Gold price Operating cost Capital costs Uranium Price IRR Gold and uranium price sensitivities % Gold and uranium prices % 20% 10% -10% 0-20% 0% IRR gold and uranium Gold Price (`000) IRR Gold Uranium Price (R/kg) IRR Uranium Robust economic returns at spot prices but marginal at valuation prices 28

29 Beisa prefeasibility study: conclusions No technical fatal' flaws PFS identified that environmental permitting process is critical Re-equipping 5 underground levels and building uranium plant, forecast at months All the necessary permitting for Beatrix, including the Beisa project permits, in process scheduled for completion in 2017 Capital expenditure well-defined in the PFS and escalated for the 2016 LoM plan Uranium plant comprises 62% of total project capital total includes a 10% contingency Will continue to assess Beisa project against changing commodity prices and other Sibanye project opportunities Provides valuable optionality for Beatrix West Complex 29

30 DE BRON MERRIESPRUIT (DBM) PROJECT Prefeasibility study 30

31 DBM project: plan of mining right Close proximity to Beatrix 31

32 Schematic of potential projects and geology Mining from 1300 metres to 2500 metres below surface Mining from 480 metres to 1200 metres below surface Regional faulting results in rare shallow target 32

33 Ore Reserve declaration PFS mine design for 2016 LoM 3D view looking south east 3D view development only Legend Leader Reef 1,2m BTX KK Reef 2.4m BTX KK Reef B Reef Multiple Reefs targeted 33

34 DBM: design re-planned to Sibanye s PFS Block models for each of the four reef horizons determined and only the economic blocks targeted Wits Gold DFS mine access infrastructure and capital escalated and carried into the PFS the cost of the new plant build was saved and the transport of ore to Beatrix included Operating costs benchmarked with the Burnstone study as similar planned development and stoping methods and efficiencies Synergies with Beatrix determined in reducing central allocated costs Reduced MCF applied, based on Beatrix 3 Shaft historic factors Description (at R430,000/kg) Unit DBM 120ktpm Project LoM year Average value mined cm.g/t 1,717 Milled tonnes millions 15,400 Gold ounces produced Moz 2.027** Total cash costs* R/t 1,143 Total all-in costs* R/t 1,478 Total all-in costs* R/kg 354,172 * Pre tax and royalties, costs in 2015 money terms as at time of the prefeasibility study ** Reserves estimated at R430,000/kg Optimistion through integration 34

35 Valuation and sensitivity analysis R3.13bn project NPV (post tax) at R600,000/kg (8% discount rate) Project is geared to revenue and did not meet the required hurdle rate at R450,000/kg but has a 18.1% post tax IRR at R600,000/kg Medium technical risk project from a mining and geological perspective NPV (Rm) Sensitivity analysis (R600,000/kg) Gold price Operating Cost Capital Cost Additional trade off studies could enhance project Very attractive project at spot prices but requires sustained high commodity prices NPV (Rm) Gold price sensitivity 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% IRR R/kg NPV IRR Robust economic returns at spot prices but marginal at valuation prices 35

36 DBM project: prefeasibility study, the way forward PFS completed for 'Best Trackless Cut option' at 120ktpm Sibanye s first mine design and schedule with the latest inputs, block models and cut-off grades re-calculated at best cut and 120ktpm Costs benchmarked against Beatrix operating costs with input from the Burnstone feasibility study Allocated overheads based on Beatrix Wits Gold capital reduced based on Beatrix synergies and infrastructure A further study comparing trackless mechanised access to an option of a deeper shaft with a conventional mine development design will be considered going forward Project will be reassessed against new project opportunities and taking into account new commodity prices A cheap option for substantial future value 36

37 BEATRIX 3 SHAFT Below infrastructure project scoping study 37

38 Beatrix below infrastructure project: location Decline Position Bloemhoek Extending the life of Beatrix even further 38

39 Beatrix below infrastructure project: conceptual layout Silos 25 Level Tram loop 26 Level 10º Conveyor decline 27 Level 10º Chairlift & service way decline Vertical dam 28 Level Ore passes 30 Level 29 Level 25 Level access incline and tip 274m Conveyor decline 1,895m Material service way 1,818m Chairlift decline 1,818m Vertical level spacing 50m 31 Level Conceptual access 39

40 Beatrix below infrastructure project: resources N Twin decline system 2.4 km 2.8 km 3 km Boundary Dyke Fault 31 Level 30 Level 29 Level 28 Level Plan 27 Level Large resources still to be accessed 40

41 Beatrix below infrastructure: project detail Pre-feasibility study is currently being undertaken: Mine design and schedule with latest input, block models and cut-off grades re-scheduled Ventilation and refrigeration requirements Rock engineering constraints Logistics for men/material and ore flow Operating cost fixed/variable costing and review central cost allocations Capital detailed cost estimate and project plan Structure and grade 4 surface boreholes to be drilled in 2016 for down-dip structure and grade results to feed into project drilling has begun on first two boreholes Pre-feasibility study project valuation to be completed by end of

42 SUMMARY 42

43 Project pipeline D5 below infrastructure De Bron WRTRP K4 below infrastructure Kloof Driefontein Beatrix Beisa Burnstone Cooke surface operations Bloemhoek/ Beatrix below infrastructure Value Beisa north and south Discovery Resource Scoping Prefeasibility Feasibility Construction Operational Balanced and extensive project pipeline 43

44 Summary and conclusions Established core projects team to progress, evaluate and implement organic growth projects Strict project assessment criteria to ensure alignment with broader Sibanye strategy Capital approved projects have added in excess of 4Moz to Ore Reserves and extended the life of existing operations Continued progression of high-yielding projects will continue to support the expansion of our reserve base, underpinning our ability to continue paying industry-leading dividends Delivering on our strategy 44