Monthly Communiqué. Portfolios. MOSt. Inside... Make the MOSt of our expertise. May Optima Strategy

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1 Monthly Communiqué May 2012 April was another weak month for Indian equities with the benchmark indices recording negative returns albeit marginally. The benchmark Nifty ended with a modest loss of 0.9% for the month. Regulatory moves, legal overhangs and subdued macro data kept investors at bay. Perhaps one of most worrying factors was the steep decline in market volumes - cash volumes averaged $2.4bn in April v/s an average of $3.3bn during Jan-March and appears to be influenced by insufficient clarity with respect to the new General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) proposed with regard to taxation on offshore investors. The much awaited RBI rate cut also failed to lift sentiments, despite coming in higher than expected. Given that the key technical levels have supported the market well so far, May will likely be a decisive month in terms of determining the direction the market would assume. Corporate earnings releases across sectors is mixed but broadly in line with estimates with private sector banks and consumer companies beating expectations even as IT Services and Telecom modestly disappoint. Macro Corner Growth: The Feb IIP print got reported at 4.1% v/s estimated 6.8% by consensus, hence continuing to negatively surprise the market. The unexpected slowdown in the headline number could be attributed to the Consumer Goods growth turning negative, led by a contraction in durables. But, Capital goods reversed its recent negative trend. The credibility of the data was questioned again, with the downward revision in the Jan data from 6.8% to 1.1% due to an incorrect reporting of sugar output. This did not go down well with the Finance Minister as well, who has ordered a probe into the revision. Inflation: March WPI inflation came in at 6.89% vs 6.95% in Feb despite a powerful base effect present in the month. This could be attributed to the rise in primary products inflation. What was more comforting however was the core inflation, viz manufactured non-food print coming down to 4.9% - which is much closer to the RBI comfort level of 4%. The March CPI print on the other hand was much higher at 9.5% and has now seen an increasing trend every month since its inception. The uptrend in March could be attributed in large part to the increase in the food prices from 4.5% to 8.4%. Policy: In the light of liquidity issues and the slowing growth in the economy, the RBI finally kicked off its rate reversal cycle. The cut to the tune of 50bps in the repo rate was in fact higher than expected, but failed to cheer the market. The reaction perhaps remained subdued because of the hawkish statements issued by the RBI which tempered expectations of a further rate cut in the near future. This policy also saw the central bank release its FY13 guidance which has pegged the WPI at 6.5% and the growth at 7.3%. INR: Rupee continued with its downward spiral for the second consecutive month & ended another 4% lower at ~52.7. Worsening macro trends in the economy, reversing direction in foreign flows, return of sovereign debt worries in Europe and the continued strength in the USD would have all contributed to this decline. S&P also revised its outlook for India to negative which started talks of a possible rating change for the country to the non-investment grade category. Political and Policy Corner GAAR: April saw the overhang on account of GAAR continue to weigh on the market without much incremental clarity emerging on the issue. This could have possibly impacted the market volumes and FII flows during the month. News reports were rife with suggestions of a possible "sunset clause" in the final law (Bill to be tabled in the Parliament on May 7th) which could tone down the impact and even delay its implementation. But any formal confirmation of the same has not come through. Regulatory Risk: Last month saw regulatory moves that took a lot of industries by surprise. In the gas industry, the regulator PNGRB ordered a key gas distribution company to cut pipeline tariff rates, with a possible overhang of this being applied retrospectively as well. In telecoms, the regulator TRAI came out with recommendations for the fresh 2G auctions which specified a reserve price that would involve a large cash outgo & lead to a disruption in spectrum allocation - both of which are negative for the players. Most importantly of course, all of this highlighted the inherent regulatory risk still prevalent in the country. Capital Flows Having started the year in top gear, capital market deals slowed down in April with only 3 deals totaling $110mn, taking place this month. Among those, the biggest one was Rabo Bank's selling of a part of its stake in Yes Bank ($86mn). For the 1st time this year, FIIs turned into net sellers and pared their India investments by $115mn. However, their YTD buying still remains an impressive $8.7bn. DIIs on the other hand, showed buying interest and net bought $154mn in April with the YTD net selling number now at $4.3bn. Amongst the DIIs, Mutual Funds continued to be net sellers to the tune of $132mn while the buying interest was seen from Insurance companies, who bought in close to $286mn. Portfolio Review Our principal strategies in PMS have opened the year on a happy note, extending their outperformance to the market during the first month of the new fiscal year and in most cases also having logged positive returns of between 1% and 4% this month. Some of our top holdings in key strategies continue to deliver superior performance relative to the market. During the month, the PMS Strategies fully exited its exposure to the Oil Marketing sector, namely stocks such as IOCL and HPCL noting continued government policy inaction with respect to aligning domestic fuel prices to reduce subsidies and the rising pressure on their profitability which is undermining their strong franchise as a result. The Value Strategy also took advantage of the recent strong outperformance in Nestle and aligned its portfolio weight to within acceptable limits. Outlook We expect the broad markets to assume some direction in May post likely clarity on GAAR along with the passage of the Union Budget and Finance Bill Long pending policy issues with regard to fuel price hikes and FDI in aviation too may see resolution after the budget session of Parliament. Until then, we expect the markets to be focused on individual stocks which will likely respond to their earnings releases for the March quarter. MOAMC do not take the responsibility for the authenticity of the above data / news/information. It is merely replication of the data /news / information already available in public. Inside... Value Strategy Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Strategy Invest India Strategy Focused Series IV - Flexi Cap Strategy Focused Series V - A Contra Strategy Bulls Eye Strategy Optima Strategy

2 Value Strategy The Strategy aims to deliver superior wealth creation by way of long term compounding effect, with investments in good businesses run by great business managers. Value based stock selection Investment Approach: Buy & Hold Investments with Long term perspective Maximize post tax return due to Low Churn Capital preservation consciousness Fund Manager : Manish Sonthalia : Taher Badshah Date of Inception : 24th March 2003 Benchmark : S&P CNX Nifty Index Investment Horizon: 3 Years Oil and Gas Infotech Pharmaceuticals Mining Bosch Ltd. Nestle India Ltd. Hero Motocorp Limited Cairn India Ltd. Infosys Technologies Ltd. Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. GlaxoSmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Coal India Limited Performance Data Value Strategy Value Strategy & Nifty Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception Nifty 32.65

3 Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Strategy The Strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes which are part of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. Textiles Engineering & Electricals Diversified Plantation Tea & Coffee Stocks with High Growth Story & Stocks with Reasonable Valuation Concentration on Emerging Themes Buy & Hold Strategy Fund Manager : Manish Sonthalia Date of Inception : 11th Dec Benchmark : CNX MIDCAP Index Investment Horizon: 3 Years + Page Industries Ltd. Bosch Ltd. Central Bank Of India Eicher Motors Ltd. Bajaj Finance Ltd. Cummins India Ltd. GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare Ltd. J&k Bank Mcleod Russel India Ltd. Performance Data NTDOP CNX MIDCAP Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity Strategy CNX MIDCAP Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 3 Years Since Inception

4 Invest India Strategy Asset Management The Strategy aims to generate long term capital appreciation by creating a focused portfolio of high growth stocks having the potential to grow more than the nominal GDP for next 5-7 years across market capitalization and which are available at reasonable market prices. Textiles Mining & Buy Growth Stocks across Market capitalization which have the potential to grow at 1.5 times the nominal GDP for next 5-7 years. BUY & HOLD strategy, leading to low to medium churn thereby enhancing post-tax returns Fund Manager : Taher Badshah Date of Inception : 11th Feb Investment Horizon: 3 Years Page Industries Ltd. Hero Motocorp Limited M R F Ltd Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Coal India Limited State Bank Of India LIC Housing Finance Ltd. Titan Industries Limited Performance Data IIS BSE 200 Invest India Strategy BSE Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year Since Inception

5 Focused Series IV - Flexi Cap Strategy The Strategy will aim to generate superior returns over a medium to long term by investing in only 8-10 companies across market capitalization. Fundamental Stock Selection Approach Active Equity Allocation between Mid caps & Large caps Active Asset Allocation calls between and Equity Strategy will follow a policy of profit booking with predefined price targets When the Client s AUM appreciates by 15%, the appreciation amount will be automatically paid-out. Portfolio Manager : Taher Badshah Date of Inception : 07th Dec Investment Horizon: Months Subscription : No Diversified Containers & Packaging Infotech Engineering & Electricals Bosch Ltd. Time Technoplast Ltd Central Bank Of India Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd. Voltas Ltd. Power Finance Corporation Limited Cummins India Ltd. Max India Limited Performance Data Focused Series - IV BSE Focused Series IV BSE & Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Years Since Inception 23.02

6 Focused Series V - A Contra Strategy The strategy aims to invest in fundamentally sound companies that can benefit from changes in a company s valuation which reflects a significant change in the markets view of the company over a horizon of three years. The Strategy focuses on investing in stocks that can benefit from growth in earnings, re-rating of business or higher valuation of assets. Objective is to increase return rather than reduce risk for Investors. Bottom-up stock selection approach Buy and hold philosophy low portfolio churn For Investors who seek for high returns with high risk Fund Manager : Manish Sonthalia Date of Inception : 27th Sept Investment Horizon: 2 to 3 Years 1 Oil and Gas Chemicals Engineering & Electricals Textiles Godrej Indus J&k Bank Petronet LNG Limited Ing Vysya Bank Limited Central Bank Of India Vardhman Textiles Limited Tata Motors Ltd. Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Reliance Industries Ltd. Triveni Turbine Limited Performance Data Focused Series - V BSE 200 Focused Series V BSE & Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year Since Inception

7 Bulls Eye Strategy The Strategy aims to deliver returns in the short to medium term by investing in fundamentally sound stocks coupled with active profit booking. Infotech Engineering & Electricals Oil and Gas % Allocation Active management Multi Cap Stategy Market Timing Regular Profit Booking Portfolio Manager : Taher Badshah Date of Inception : 15th Dec Investment Horizon: 12 Months Eicher Motors Ltd. Bajaj Finserv Ltd. State Bank Of India Cummins India Ltd. Skf Bearing Ltd Infosys Technologies Ltd. Bajaj Auto Ltd. Reliance Industries Ltd Performance Data Bulls Eye BSE 200 Bulls Eye Strategy BSE Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception

8 Optima Strategy The Strategy aims to deliver superior returns over a long period by investing in companies with growth potential & which are available at reasonable market price. Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) Investment Horizon of 2 years + Active Portfolio Rebalancing Market Timing Situation based Flexi Cap approach Portfolio Manager : Taher Badshah Date of Inception : 30th Dec 2008 Investment Horizon: 2 Years + Infotech Oil and Gas Eicher Motors Ltd. Bajaj Finserv Ltd. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. Bosch Ltd. Cairn India Ltd LIC Housing Finance Ltd Performance Data Optima BSE Optima Strategy BSE Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 3 Year Since Inception

9 Asset Management