CMP: INR537 TP: INR830 (+55%) Buy

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1 25 February 2016 Update Sector: Technology Just Dial BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 22,976 6,971 CMP: INR537 TP: INR830 (+55%) Buy JD Omni and improved Search Plus launched; sets stage for next leg of growth Bloomberg JUST IN Equity Shares (m) 70.5 M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 37.9/ Week Range (INR) 1,455/378 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -26/-22/-39 Avg Val, (INR m) 699 Free float (%) 67.4 Financials & Valuation (INR b) Y/E Mar 2016E 2017E 2018E Sales EBITDA NP EPS (INR) EPS Gr. (%) BV/Sh (INR) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) Estimate change TP change Rating change We attended the launch of JD Omni and improved Search Plus, key highlights of which were as follows: JD Omni takes hyper local to the next level, makes every SME an e-tailer JUST unveiled the new JD Omni app, which is a digital business manager by providing vendors with their own ecommerce portal, app, dashboard with financial parameters (along with a monthly comparison), inventory management system along with payment integration, making it the complete enterprise solutions. In a nutshell, it helps traders come online with their businesses and sell directly to consumers, apart from assisting in supply chain management. Pricing of the first version is INR20,000 as setup cost and a monthly fee of INR2,000. Close to 1,500 SMEs have already signed for the same, including 500 opting for the upfront fee model. Upfront fee is ~INR120,000, however the introductory fees for the 500 opting for it was INR65,000. The ones opting for upfront free model get access to only the first version and AMC for five years. JD Omni will cater to both segments retail and services, as well as B2B and not just B2C. At the vendor end, the app interface is similar to Search Plus version. JD Omni to be high margin business Management commented that costs for JD Omni and Search Plus has been frontloaded (~INR m incurred in 9mFY16), hence gross margins are expected to be high. Subsequently, JUST will incur sales related cost like cost of hosting website, app, marketing and employee cost. As per management, EBITDA margins are expected to be 70-75%. It is also planning to hire 500 dedicated feet on street sales personnel and 500 tele marketing personnel by March 2016, especially for JD Omni. JD Omni and Search Plus will be synergistic with the existing Search business by transacting and managing vendors inventory and logistics, and providing them with a domain. Search Plus upgrade launched JUST also upgraded the version of Search Plus which saw addition of key features in the form of search through voice commands, cab bookings through Uber, Ola, and Easy Cabs integrated into Just Dial, IRCTC feature for booking of train tickets, and added scheduling for repairs services. While booking for Ola is back ended into JD app itself, Uber interface is integrated to the Uber app. It has also enhanced hyper local search features with price comparison of local and leading ecommerce portals, apart from UI/UX improvement. It will be launching voice commands for Indian languages also soon. The app also now has its own inbuilt maps in one single app. Management highlighted that it is generating revenue from unique product categories that don t have vertical apps. It will be soon introducing one tap pay option through PayUMoney soon, without a need of wallet, through connected cards and introducing JD hyper local logistics, in top cities of India. Management highlighted that evangelists campaign with 1000 personnel pan India will begin soon. Niket Shah (Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); Chintan Modi (Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); /Kaustubh Kale (Kaustubh.Kale@MotilalOswal.com); Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

2 JD Social a social network with commercial intent to be launched soon JUST plans to launch a 'JD social' feature which will have the feel of a social networking website but help commercially. It will enable the user to interact with his friends, use function of checking in, upload photos, like and comment on his friends activities through Just Dial apart from their reviews and ratings. Valuation and view We expect 21% revenue CAGR and 9% profit CAGR over FY We believe, its recent launch of JD Omni and Search Plus will provide new avenues of growth for coming years. However, the evangelists and ad campaigns shall prove to be the key to success of both JD Omni and Search Plus. Maintain Buy with a TP of INR830, 32x FY18E EPS. 25 February

3 Exhibit 1: Signing up on JD Omni takes five minutes in a three step process Exhibit 2: Signing up on JD Omni takes five minutes in a three step process 25 February

4 Exhibit 3: Pre-populated retailer types which allows ease of registering Exhibit 4: JD Omni offers host of features (as enlisted) to do business digitally 25 February

5 Valuation and view We value JUST at 32x FY18E EPS, which we believe is justified considering: High entry barriers ensure limited competition JUST is the leader in India s local search business and enjoys a strong first-mover advantage. It has a database of 16.1m listings spread across ~2,000 Indian cities as on 3QFY16, significantly ahead of competitors. We believe the biggest strength of JUST is maintenance of its database by keeping it updated and accurate through unparalleled feet-on-street strength (~9,500 employees as of FY15), its ability to develop direct and personal relationships with SMEs and its unique voice-based search infrastructure, which is difficult to replicate by competitors. Strong growth potential for India s local search business We believe JUST has significant growth potential as at 16.1m listings, it has still tapped less than 50% of the India s overall base of 32m SMEs. Further, opportunity in terms of monetization is huge given only 2% of JUST s listings are paid listings, and less than 1% of India s SME base of 32m small businesses are paid advertisers on its platform. JUST s proprietary pricing algorithms to set the price range for various membership packages depending on the keyword and locality as well as its unique mechanism of offering monthly/weekly payment packages ensure high affordability for SME s which should drive higher monetization going forward. Search Plus, a game changer Synergistic move, from search to transactions JUST has extended its offerings from search to transactions with launch of a host of services under the JD Search Plus platform. JUST currently has 27 products under Search Plus which includes online food delivery, groceries, wine delivery, doctors appointments, taxi bookings, online purchases of electronics, etc. Further, JUST is launching a plethora of new products like Just Dial Guaranteed, Just Dial Cash, Online cab booking, etc which we believe will take the Search Plus platform to a completely different league. Management plans to aggressively advertise to create a viral impact for these recent launches. We believe given strong relationships enjoyed by JUST with SMEs, it is best placed to capture the off-line to on-line e- commerce opportunity with its foray into enabling transactions on its platform. Exhibit 5: Price to earnings (one year forward) 90 P/E (x) 2 Yrs Avg(x) Exhibit 6: Price to book (one year forward) 20.0 P/B (x) 2 Yrs Avg(x) Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Nov Feb-16 We value the stock at 32x FY18E EPS and arrive at a target price of INR830. Maintain Buy rating. 25 February

6 Story in charts Exhibit 7: Total number of business listings Exhibit 8: Paid campaigns as a % of total listings No of business listings (m) No of campaigns (in 000s) Paid campaigns as % of total listings FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Exhibit 9: Premium listing continue to rise Number of campaigns (in 000s) Premium listings % FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Exhibit 10: Average realization per campaign to moderate Avg. realization per campaign per year (INR) Growth% ,668 20,246 17, ,219 19,686 19,880 19,582 19,680 19, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Exhibit 11: Search Plus to drive e-commerce sales for JUST India's e-commerce market for physical goods (USD b) 8.6 Exhibit 12: JUST has a robust cash generating business model CFO (INR m) Free cash flows (INR m) 2, , ,171 1,699 2,015 1,330 1,121 1,165 1,299 1,615 2,559 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E 25 February

7 Key assumptions Exhibit 13: Annual metrics Particulars FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E No of business listings (m) No of campaigns 61, , , , , , , , ,531 Paid campaigns as % of total listings 1.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% Average realization per campaign per year (INR) 25,668 20,246 17,999 19,219 19,686 19,880 19,582 19,680 19,778 Growth YoY Listings growth YoY 0.0% 33.3% 20.0% 26.4% 29.7% 27.1% 10.0% 15.0% 15.0% Campaign growth YoY 51.9% 95.4% 42.3% 20.8% 26.9% 26.3% 14.6% 20.0% 19.8% Average realization growth (YoY) 21.0% -21.1% -11.1% 6.8% 2.4% 1.0% -1.5% 0.5% 0.5% Source: Company, MOSL Exhibit 14: Quarterly metrics 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 Total Campaigns (mn) Paid Campaigns (in 000s) Paid Campaigns as a proportion of total campaigns 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% Total Campaigns (YoY) 23% 23% 30% 49% 44% 36% 27% 8% 9% 10% Paid Campaigns (YoY) 27.1% 27.9% 26.9% 25.5% 24.1% 25.3% 26.3% 24.8% 18.1% 13.5% Source: Company, MOSL 25 February

8 Financials and Valuations Consolidated - Income Statement (INR Million) Y/E March FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Net Sales 2,621 3,628 4,613 5,898 6,959 8,515 10,498 Change (%) EBITDA 672 1,007 1,422 1,657 1,670 1,490 2,415 Margin (%) Depreciation EBIT ,249 1,416 1,346 1,110 1,968 Int. and Finance Charges Other Income - Rec PBT after EO Exp ,649 1,904 1,840 1,653 2,566 Current Tax Deferred Tax Tax Rate (%) Reported PAT ,206 1,388 1,343 1,157 1,796 PAT Adj for EO items ,206 1,388 1,343 1,157 1,796 Change (%) Margin (%) Consolidated - Balance Sheet (INR Million) Y/E March FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Equity Share Capital Total Reserves 542 3,564 4,643 6,029 5,576 6,572 8,166 Net Worth 1,072 4,259 5,344 6,733 6,270 7,266 8,861 Deferred Liabilities Total Loans Capital Employed 1,072 4,269 5,363 6,733 6,270 7,266 8,861 Gross Block ,080 1,706 2,106 2,506 2,906 Less: Accum. Deprn ,109 1,489 1,936 Net Fixed Assets , Capital WIP Total Investments 1,568 4,858 6,257 7,722 7,272 7,272 7,272 Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv ,033 2,620 5,138 Account Receivables Cash and Bank Balance ,818 4,176 Loans and Advances Curr. Liability & Prov. 1,405 1,806 2,287 2,912 3,055 3,666 4,543 Account Payables 1,392 1,787 2,103 2,703 2,783 3,313 4,084 Provisions Net Current Assets ,213-1,422-1,933-2,022-1, Appl. of Funds 1,072 4,269 5,363 6,734 6,270 7,266 8,861 E: MOSL Estimates; * Adjusted for treasury stocks 25 February

9 Financials and Valuations Ratios Y/E March FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Basic (INR) EPS Cash EPS BV/Share DPS Payout (%) Valuation (x) P/E Cash P/E P/BV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE Working Capital Ratios Fixed Asset Turnover (x) Asset Turnover (x) Debtor (Days) Creditor (Days) Working Capital Turnover (Days) Leverage Ratio (x) Current Ratio Debt/Equity Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement (INR Million) Y/E March FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E NP/ (Loss) Before Tax and EO Items ,649 1,905 1,840 1,653 2,566 Depreciation Direct Taxes Paid (Inc)/Dec in WC CF from Operations 1,039 1,135 1,716 2,171 1,699 2,015 2,959 EO Expense CF from Operating incl EO 957 1,023 1,330 1,844 1,699 2,015 2,959 (inc)/dec in FA Free Cash Flow ,122 1,165 1,299 1,615 2,559 (Pur)/Sale of Investments -1,091-3,188-1, Others CF from Investments -1,209-3,535-1,241-1, Dividend Paid CF from Fin. Activity 293 2, , Inc/Dec of Cash ,454 2,358 Add: Beginning Balance ,818 Closing Balance ,818 4,176 E: MOSL Estimates 25 February

10 Corporate profile Company description Just Dial Ltd (JUST) is one of the leading local search engines in India. It provides users with information and user reviews from its database of local businesses, products and services across India. Its search service is available to users through multiple platforms: Internet, mobile Internet, telephone (voice) and text (SMS). JDL is a well known and established brand on the Internet and through its easy to remember phone numbers ( and ) and user friendly mobile phone interface, it attained significant mind share with users for their local search needs. Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased Source: MOSL/Bloomberg Exhibit 2: Shareholding pattern (%) Sep-15 Jun-15 Sep-14 Promoter DII FII Others Note: FII Includes depository receipts Source: Capitaline Exhibit 4: Top management Name Venkatachalam Sthanu Subramani Sachin Jain Designation Managing Director Company Secretary Exhibit 3: Top holders Holder Name % Holding Saif II Mauritius Company Limited 8.6 Sequoia Capital India Investments III 4.7 SCI Growth Investments II 4.3 Sequoia Capital India Growth Investment Holdings I 4.3 Fidelity Investment Trust - Fidelity Diversified International Fund 3.3 Source: Capitaline Exhibit 5: Directors Name Name Anand Balasundaram Malcolm Monteiro Ramani Iyer Ravi Chandra Adusumalli Sanjay Bahadur Shailendra Jit Singh Venkata Challam Krishnan Source: Capitaline Exhibit 6: Auditors Name S R Batliboi & Associates LLP V B Kondalkar & Associates Type Statutory Secretarial Audit Source: Capitaline Exhibit 7: MOSL forecast v/s consensus EPS MOSL Consensus (INR) forecast forecast Variation (%) FY FY FY Source: Bloomberg 25 February

11 N O T E S 25 February

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