Independent Equity Research. Investment Summary

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1 Independent Equity Research Investment Summary Equentis Wealth Advisory Services (P) Ltd Registered Office: 712, Raheja Chambers, Nariman Point, Mumbai India Tel:

2 MINDA INDUSTRIES LIMITED Disclaimer: This Initiating Coverage note has been prepared in June 2017 and is refreshed as and when deemed necessary. Our recommended companies are tracked regularly (quarterly) and for latest information on the company and latest months and 5-year targets, please visit the quarterly result report section on our website. Detailed quarterly results are uploaded every quarter in this section. Additionally, clients are also updated on any major events as and when they occur Quantitative Factors - Checklist Sr. No. Aspect Required Criteria for Equentis 5x5 strategy FY12-17 Actual Value (Historical) Condition Met? (Y/N) FY17-22E Future Value (Forecast) 1 Top-line CaGR 20-30% CaGR over 5yr period 25% Y 25% Y 2 EBITDA CaGR 25-35% CaGR over 5yr period 40% Y 26% Y 3 PAT CaGR 30-40% CaGR over 5yr period 45% Y 35% Y 4 RoCE 5 D/E Ratio (xs) At least 15% with increasing bias Around 1-1.5xs with declining bias Condition Met? (Y/N) 12% N 25% Y 0.8 Y 0.1 Y 6 Working Capital Intensity Less than 25-30% of net sales 5% Y 8% Y 7 Dividend Payout 15-20% 30% Y 15% Y Qualitative Factors - Checklist Sr.No. Aspect Comment Criteria Met?*** Management pedigree, track record and integrity Ownership Profile (as on 3 rd April 2017) Business USP & Market Leadership Past strategies towards acquisitions, capital allocation, fiscal prudence, capital spends, cash flow mgmt, dividend payouts, bonus, concern for minority s/hs High promoter stake, increasing bias (65-75%) over last decade, NIL pledge. Sound business acumen w.r.t. revenue diversification and client additions. Successful business ramp-up alongside fiscal prudence. Y Off-late management interaction with investors and analysts updating business performance through the year has improved significantly. Significant stake held by Canara Robeco MF (1.26%), HSBC Global Fund (2.55%), DB International Asia (2.52%) and DSP Blackrock Core Fund (1.09%). Y MIL is largest maker of automotive switches in India, 3rd largest maker of automotive lighting systems in India and 2nd largest horn maker in the world. Through its various product segments, MIL has relations with almost all OEMs in India. MIL has recently entered into product lines such as automotive LEDs lighting, electronic horns, illuminated switches, fuel caps which are untapped in India. Y It has more than 100 registered patents, 129 design registrations and 3 R&D centers across India. MIL has forged partnerships with global majors to enhance product design, quality and performance. Management has strong track record of turning around loss making subsidiaries as is mentioned in report. Clarton Horns (CH) acquisition catapulted MIL to position of 2 nd largest horn maker globally. CH which was making losses at time of acquisition was Y successfully turned around one year after it was acquired. Company has handsomely rewarded investors with average dividend payouts of ~30% over the past five years. 2

3 Sr.No. Aspect Comment Criteria Met?*** Capex has been maintained below 8% of sales during non-capex heavy years. Most of the stake transfers have happened at book value. Business integration and consolidation exercise has catapulted revenues for the company while ensuring that the balance sheet remains robust 5 Succession Planning We are satisfied with succession planning strategies employed by management. Daughters of CMD are actively involved in working of company. Y Note: ***Whether criteria for Equentis 5x5 Investment Strategy met? Please note that the latest available shareholding data on BSE is for 3 rd April 2017 in place of 31 st March 2017 since there was a change in shareholding post QIP issue in which new Institutional shareholders entered MIL. 3

4 INVESTMENT THESIS Recommendation - BUY Internal Rating Score out of M Review Price -- Rs ,130 Upside: % absolute upside 5yr Review Price -- Rs. 1,745-2,615 Upside: 25-35% CaGR MIL is at the cusp of a strong new growth cycle, led by a powerful play of twin factors of a highly attractive opportunity at its end-user Indian automotive industry, as well as by its dominant Tier-I auto vendor status, resulting in high entry barriers and market leadership across its diversified product portfolio. Over the years, the management has shown tremendous foresight in scaling up the operations, led by successful diversification of product portfolio and strong client additions. Importantly, this successful ramp-up has been supported by partnerships with global leaders, which in turn has ensured high quality products and robust acceptance of the same amongst OEMs. Alongside, the company has built strong brand equity in the more profitable after-market, which also helps to some extent smoothen business cycle volatilities. In our opinion, the next leg of growth would be driven by the following a) Steady growth in existing product portfolio mainly of switches, lighting, acoustics and alloy wheels led by its dominant market leadership across OEMs and after-markets. For the same, MIL has already invested in building new capacities that offer visibility to support strong double digit revenue CaGR over the next 3-5 years. b) The group has initiated a Business Integration Exercise, with the objective to bring the operations of various group companies mostly owned by the promoters into the books of MIL. The management plans to execute this exercise in two Phases of which Phase I (comprising of two stages) is completed while Phase II is expected to be completed by March PHASE-I Stage-1 Increasing MIL stake through investment in JV & Group companies Stage-2 Increasing MIL stake in JV & Group companies Additional 50% in MJ Castings for Rs.152 mn, increasing stake to 100% Invested Rs. 194mn SAM Global Pte Ltd, Singapore for 51% equity stake SAM Global Pte Ltd, Singapore holds 37% equity shares in PT Minda Asean Automotive, Indonesia (PTMA) Invested Rs mn for additional 13% in PT Minda Asean Automotive (Indonesia), increasing holding to 32% Invested Rs mn in Minda TG Rubber for 51% equity stake Invested Rs mn in Kosei Minda Aluminum Co. for 30% shareholding ASEAN has been consolidated from 51% to 100% from April 2017 for a consideration of ~Rs. 290mn PTMA, Indonesia has become 100% subsidiary of MIL SAM Global, Singapore has become 100% subsidiary of MIL 49% interest in Roki Minda has been purchased for a consideration of ~Rs429mn, the entity has been consolidated from October 1, 2016 Minda Storage Batteries Pvt Ltd (Erstwhile Panasonic Minda Storage Batteries India Pvt Ltd) became 100% subsidiary Battery Division of MIL is being hived off to Minda Storage batteries (A WOS of MIL) w.e.f. 1 st April 2017 MIL has a technological alliance with Tokai Rika of Japan for manufacturing 4W switches; called Mindarika Private Limited (MRPL) in which MIL has a 27% stake. This is classified as an associate company under MIL. As mentioned by the management during Q4FY17 post-result conference call, MRPL will be consolidated into MIL from H2FY18. MRPL reported Revenues, EBITDA margin and PAT of Rs. 6.5bn, 14% and Rs. 500mn respectively in FY17. This business has huge synergies with MIL s existing mainstay business of 2W / 3W / Off- Road vehicles, hence bringing it into the books of the company will be hugely beneficial for MIL. 4

5 c) Investments in new business lines Alloy wheels (70% subsidiary with Japanese leader Kosei Aluminum, largest manufacturer of alloy wheels in India, marquee customers include MSIL, Toyota, M&M, Honda and Renault Nissan. MIL s capacity for Alloy Wheels stood at 55,000 wheels per month between October 2016 to February 2017, ramping up to 75,000 in March MIL is planning to increase the capacity to 1,20,000 p.m. by August 2017 from current capacity of 90,000 p.m. in Bawal plant. Another plant for alloy wheel in Gujarat will be commissioned in 2 phases. In first phase (By April 2018), 60,000 p.m. alloy-wheels per month will be manufactured. The company will spend Rs. 1.5bn for the expansion. For majority of the expansion, MIL has orders in place), Brake and Fuel hoses (through 51% subsidiary Minda TG Rubber Pvt. Ltd., capacity of 5.1mn mtrs, caters to MSIL and TKML). Key assumptions for Base Case Forecasts over FY17-22E Revenue: As per our estimates, consolidated turnover of MIL is projected to report strong double-digit CaGR in the range of 20-25% over FY17-22E, Accordingly, turnover of Rs. 35bn in FY17 is estimated to grow to Rs. 100bn in FY22 a growth of 25% CaGR. FY17 was the first full year reflecting the revenues on account of integration and revenue from new product additions like alloy wheels and batteries. Consequently, growth in FY17 saw an upward spike with consolidated revenues growing nearly 40% YoY against an average top-line growth of 20% seen during the five years before FY17. The integration exercise is still going on and we expect the next couple of years to see high revenue growth (30% YoY in FY18 and 33% YoY in FY19) and normalizing thereafter (average 18% YoY over FYFY20-22). Basis these assumptions, consolidated turnover is expected to grow nearly 3xs over FY EBITDA: We estimate consolidated EBITDA to grow at a CaGR of 26% over FY17-22E, higher than the topline CaGR, aided by EBITDA margin expansion of 125bps over FY17-22E. MIL s EBITDA margins have seen a huge expansion since FY14, of 638bps over FY This margin expansion has been driven by entry into more profitable segments, capacity expansion, improved capacity utilization leading to operating leverage kicking in. The integration exercise being carried out currently has also led to significant operating synergies, saving of costs and has contributed to margin expansion. Going ahead, we expect EBITDA margins to stabilize in the 11-12% range. Capex & Asset-sweating: MIL s capex has shown some interesting trends over FY FY11 and FY12 were relatively capex-light years with cumulative capex of Rs. 1.5bn during the two years. The next two years (FY13 & FY14) saw cumulative capex of Rs. 6bn. The company acquired Clarton Horn, Spain in FY14 for 6.8mn and also invested in partnership entities. FY15 was a relatively capex-light year with capex of only Rs. 510mn. Again, FY16&17 saw heavy investment (cumulative Rs. 7.5bn) by the company towards capacity expansion and consolidation of entities under its fold. Over the period FY17-22E, we estimate cumulative capex of Rs. 22bn. We expect steady improvement in asset sweating from current levels of 2xs to 3xs over FY22E. Cap-structure: Based on the above assumptions, we estimate MIL to become debt-free by FY21. Over the near-term we expect leverage to remain well below 0.5xs and with a steadily declining bias. PAT: With a topline CaGR of 25%, EBITDA CaGR of 26%, we estimate PAT CaGR of 35% over FY17-22E. We have assumed tax rates at 22% each year in our forecasted period. Dividend Payout: We have maintained dividend payout ratio as % net profits to be constant at 15% over our forecasted period. Working Capital Intensity: MIL has an efficient working capital management with Net working capital as % net sales at around 5%. We expect it to remain slightly elevated, though manageable (at 8% of sales) over the forecasted period. 5

6 Return Metrics: RoCE and RoE have more than doubled over the past five years to 19% and 22% respectively. Going ahead, we expect RoCE to jump to 33% and RoE to move up to 26% by FY22E. Particulars (Rs. Mn.) 3yr CaGR (FY14-17) 5yr CaGR (FY12-17) 5yr CaGR (FY17-22E) Revenues 27.1% 24.3% 23.4% EBITDA 70.2% 38.3% 26.1% PAT 187.5% 43.2% 32.7% Cumulative Capex (8,014) (13,953) (17,036) Avg. D/E (xs) Avg. Dividend Payout (%) 14.0% 28.2% 15.0% Avg. Working Capital Intensity (%) 5.0% 5.2% 8.1% Avg. RoCE (%) 15.5% 11.7% 25.7% Avg. RoE (%) 22.6% 15.9% 24.9% Cumulative FCFF (1,955) (6,860) 13,225 Avg. Cash & Liquid Investments 1,545 1,105 2,918 Basis the above growth opportunity and MIL s strong opportunity, over FY17 22E, our key estimates are as follows: 1. Turnover increase by approx. 3xs 2. EBITDA increase by 3.2xs 3. PAT increase by 4xs 4. Cumulative Capex over five years = Rs. 17bn 5. Cumulative FCFF over five years = Rs. 13bn 6. Avg. Cash and investments portfolio of Rs. 3bn 7. Avg. Gearing NIL 8. Avg. Working Capital Intensity = 8% of sales 9. Avg. Dividend Payout at 15% of consolidated PAT 10. Avg. RoCE of 26% with increasing bias MIL FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 CaGR FY17-22E EPS (Rs.) % YoY (%) 48.1% 39.8% 28.0% 25.8% 23.4% P/E (xs) Over the next months, we expect the stock has the potential of delivering % upside over current levels. This is based on valuing average FY18 & 19 estimated EPS of ~ Rs. 38/- at 25-30xs PE multiple. Particulars FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E EPS (Rs.) YoY (%) 48.1% 39.8% 28.0% CMP (Rs.) P/E (xs) Avg EPS (FY18E-19E) 37.6 Attach Multiple (xs) Case I Case II Intrinsic Value (Rs.) 940 1,128 Upside (%) 68.1% 101.7% Avg. Intrinsic Value (Rs.) 1,034 Avg. Upside (%) 84.9% 6

7 Basis the above explained growth opportunity and MIL s strong competitive positioning, alongside benefits of scaling up through business integration exercise and new product additions; over FY17-22, we forecast Consolidated Turnover to grow 3xs, EBITDA to grow 3.2xs and PAT to grow 4xs. We estimate MIL to become debt-free by FY21, with cumulative free cash flows to the firm worth Rs. 13bn over FY18-22E. After more than doubling from 9% to 19% over past five years leading to FY17, RoCE is expected to further move upwards to 33% by FY22E. Such rampant pace of improvement in financials puts MIL in a sweet spot, wherein it should see the twin benefits of sharp upward revision in earnings as well as multiple re-rating. We forecast base case EPS at Rs. 31/- in FY18 (48% YoY), Rs. 44/- in FY19 (40% YoY), Rs. 56/- in FY20 (28% YoY), Rs. 71/- in FY21 (26% YoY) and Rs. 87/- in FY22 (23%) YoY. This implies EPS CaGR of 33% over FY17-22E. Given our high conviction in the business model and the favourable medium-term outlook, we are of the opinion, that apart from the strong near-term stock price appreciation, MIL also has the potential of creating significant wealth and fits well into our 5x5 strategy. The table below details the sensitivity of FY22 Target Price to different levels of EPS estimates and PE multiple. FY-22 EPS sensitivity -5% -10% -15% 0% 5% 10% 15% FY-22 EPS est. (Rs./-) PE 10xs , PE 12xs , , , , PE 15xs 1, , , , , , , PE 20xs 1, , , , , , , PE 25xs 2, , , , , , , PE 30xs 2, , , , , , , PE 35xs 2, , , , , , , Note shaded cells indicate fair value of equity range Recommendation - MIL forms part of our top conviction investment ideas with strong potential of delivering 3-5xs returns over current levels through FY22. We have a strong BUY recommendation on the stock and would advise adding the stock at current levels. We have high levels of confidence in the business model, its product portfolio and sustainability of demand drivers in its end-markets across OEMs and aftermarket, as well as on the management s ability to deliver going forward. 7

8 Sensitivity The table below runs the sensitivity of EPS CaGR over FY17-22 at different levels of topline CaGR and EBITDA margin estimates EBITDA Margin Estimate FY22E Consolidated Top-line CaGR FY17-22E 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 8.0% % % 1.21% 10.97% 19.30% 26.79% 8.5% % -7.67% 4.15% 13.52% 21.66% 29.05% 9.0% % -4.31% 6.80% 15.86% 23.84% 31.16% 9.5% % -1.37% 9.20% 18.03% 25.89% 33.14% 10.0% % 1.25% 11.41% 20.04% 27.80% 35.01% 10.5% -9.00% 3.63% 13.46% 21.93% 29.61% 36.78% 11.0% -6.15% 5.81% 15.37% 23.71% 31.33% 38.47% 11.5% -3.62% 7.82% 17.16% 25.39% 32.96% 40.07% 12.0% -1.32% 9.70% 18.85% 26.99% 34.51% 41.61% 12.5% 0.78% 11.45% 20.45% 28.51% 35.99% 43.08% 13.0% 2.72% 13.10% 21.96% 29.96% 37.41% 44.49% 13.5% 4.52% 14.66% 23.41% 31.35% 38.78% 45.85% 14.0% 6.20% 16.13% 24.79% 32.68% 40.09% 47.16% 14.5% 7.79% 17.54% 26.11% 33.97% 41.36% 48.43% 15.0% 9.28% 18.88% 27.38% 35.20% 42.58% 49.66% As can be seen in the yellow highlighted cell above At topline CaGR of approximately 25% CaGR and ~12% EBITDA margins in FY22, we project EPS CaGR of ~40% over FY Risks to the recommendation Slower than estimated growth in revenues led by decline in market share, loss of business to other players and/or inability to successfully ramp up the operations after the business integration exercise. Any pressure on core operating profitability would impact our estimates of net earnings and would have negative implications on our estimates of fair value of equity. Any large capex and or funds outflow/ deterioration in cap-metrics to fund large acquisitions would have material impact to our estimates of intrinsic value of equity. Growth in business for Auto Ancillary companies like MIL depends on volume growth for domestic OEMs. Hence, any decline in their growth due to broader macro-economic issues or company-specific issues can adversely affect MIL s business. Given that exports contribute more than 20% to MIL s consolidated revenues, company is exposed to a risk or loss from changes in foreign exchange rates whenever it enters into a purchase or sales agreement in a currency other than INR. Movements in exchange rates and volatility in interest rates could have an adverse effect on operating results. Near-term catalysts Synergy benefits arising from the ongoing consolidation exercise which is expected to contribute handsomely to revenue and profitability growth. Impending rebound in India s GDP growth, which will stimulate demand in Auto sector, considered to be a barometer of economic growth. As per industry experts, GST implementation will be beneficial for the auto ancillary with effective tax rate for the industry coming down from current levels of 28 30% to 18%. This is expected to provide a muchneeded shot-in-the-arm for the $39bn domestic auto ancillary industry. 8

9 Consolidated Financial Summary 3yr CaGR 5yr CaGR 3yr CaGR 5yr CaGR Particulars (Rs. Mn.) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY14-17 FY12-17 FY17-20E FY17-22E Net Revenues 9,542 11,792 13,404 17,061 22,266 25,273 35,050 45,187 60,241 72,881 86, ,157 27% 24% 28% 23% CaGR YoY (%) 23.6% 13.7% 27.3% 30.5% 13.5% 38.7% 28.9% 33.3% 21.0% 18.3% 16.1% EBITDA ,514 2,378 3,836 5,058 6,894 8,523 10,302 12,213 70% 38% 30% 26% CaGR YoY (%) -9.4% 23.2% -16.7% 94.5% 57.1% 61.3% 31.9% 36.3% 23.6% 20.9% 18.6% EBITDA Margins (%) 8.8% 6.4% 7.0% 4.6% 6.8% 9.4% 10.9% 11.2% 11.4% 11.7% 11.9% 12.2% 9.1% 7.7% 11.4% 11.7% Average Reported PAT ,111 1,681 2,490 3,480 4,455 5,604 6, % 43% 38% 33% CaGR YoY (%) -17.9% 0.7% -74.8% 859.6% 63.8% 51.2% 48.1% 39.8% 28.0% 25.8% 23.4% PAT Margins (%) 3.6% 2.4% 2.1% 0.4% 3.0% 4.4% 4.8% 5.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.5% 6.9% 4.1% 3.0% 5.8% 6.2% Average FCFF (130) (480) (463) (4,443) 878 (1,161) (1,671) (2,702) 2,192 3,457 4,552 5,727 (1,955) (6,860) 2,946 13,225 Cumulative Debt:Equity (0.04) (0.18) Average Asset Turns Average RoCE (%) 15% 8% 9% 3% 10% 18% 19% 18% 22% 26% 29% 33% 16% 12% 22% 26% Average RoE (%) 20% 12% 9% 2% 20% 25% 22% 22% 25% 26% 26% 26% 23% 16% 24% 25% Average Wkg Capital Intensity (%) 5.5% 7.0% 4.9% 5.9% 5.3% 5.3% 4.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 5.0% 5.2% 8.1% 8.1% Average Capex / Net Sales (%) 5.7% 7.6% 10.7% 26.4% 2.3% 11.6% 13.1% 11.1% 4.2% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 9.0% 12.8% 6.4% 5.3% Average EPS (Rs.)-current share count % 43% 38% 33% CaGR P/E (xs) EV: 47,303 49,221 47,816 45,156 41,406 36, M. Cap 44,392 44,392 44,392 44,392 44,392 44, Add: Debt 6,677 6,636 5,834 3, (3,952) -- Less: Cash & Equivalents 3,766 1,807 2,410 2,915 3,450 4,006 EV / EBITDA (xs) BVPS (Rs.) P / BV (xs) Dividend Payout as % of PAT 14.0% 20.2% 19.9% 79.0% 16.9% 12.6% 12.5% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 9

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