Sonata Software HOLD. Unimpressive Show; IITS Revenue Disappoints. Institutional Equity Research. February 06, Target Price Rs190.

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1 CMP* (Rs) 194 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 20 Free Float (%) 69 Shares O/S (mn) 105 Sonata Software Unimpressive Show; IITS Revenue Disappoints Sonata Software (Sonata) delivered an unimpressive performance in 3QFY17, with IITS business revenue declining 2.9% QoQ to $30.3mn (~4% below our estimate). However, IITS revenue adjusting for Systems Integration (hardware) revenue in 2QFY17 rose 1% QoQ in USD terms and 3.5% QoQ in CC terms. DPS revenue rose by 31% QoQ and 20.9% YoY to Rs4.15bn. While consolidated EBIT margin topped our estimate by 32bps due to higher IITS margin led by o-shoring and lower SI revenue, net profit rose 2.2% QoQ (-3.9% YoY) to Rs387mn (6.4% below our estimate). From vertical perspective, OPD continued to face pressure with 6% sequential decline. Steep 9.8% sequential revenue decline in Travel (key vertical for Rezopia platform) is another area of concern, and decline was owing to a client-specific issue in the UK, apart from currency pressures. Service-wise, ADM declined by a steep 10.4% QoQ, even as the IMS segment grew by 2.5% QoQ, reflecting its importance as the key growth driver. Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth Absolute performance (1.4) Relative to Nifty (8.1) Shareholding Pattern (%) Sept 16 Dec 16 Promoter Public Year Stock Price Performance A None-too Impressive Show on All Counts Sonata witnessed pressure on its key verticals in 3QFY17. Continuing to remain volatile, revenue from OPD vertical dipped 6% QoQ, following two successive quarters of 10% QoQ growth. We had noted this risk owing to disruptive impact of SMAC in our initiating report on Sonata in Dec 16. Steep 9.8% sequential revenue decline in Travel (Sonata s key focus area particularly for Rezopia platform, acquired >2 years back) is another area of concern. Sequential growth of 14% in Retail & CPG business, which is now the 2nd-largest vertical, is a key positive. This vertical has accounted for ~80% of Sonata s incremental revenue over past 8 quarters Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Note: * CMP as on February 06, 2017 Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Nonetheless, Sonata s 3QFY17 show is less-than-enthusing given revenue decline in USD terms, despite management s positive commentary of healthy revenue growth. We believe EBITDA margin expansion of 94bps QoQ in IITS business is unsustainable in the absence of sustained improvement in revenue growth. Outlook & Valuation We like Sonata s dierentiated business model, high dividend yield, quality balance sheet, high RoE and no equity dilution for over 15 years. However, the stock has risen 23%, surpassing our original target price since we initiated coverage in Dec 16. We believe the stock will remain subdued in the near-term given sharp up-move in the counter and subdued performance in 3QFY17. Hence, we downgrade our recommendation on the stock to from BUY with a marginally revised Target Price of Rs190 (from Rs185 earlier), as we partially roll over to FY19E. Key Financials (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Net Sales 16,821 19,405 24,396 28,113 31,986 EBITDA 1,676 1,919 2,010 2,408 2,932 APAT 1,337 1,586 1,542 1,813 2,163 Diluted EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV / EBITDA (x) RoE (%) Research Analyst: Harit Shah Contact: harit.shah@relianceada.com 1

2 Key Conference Call Takeaways Adjusting for $1.2mn one-time Systems Integration (SI, hardware implementation)- related revenue in 2QFY17, adjusted revenue rose 1% QoQ in reported terms and 3.5% QoQ in CC terms. BREXIT has impacted a key Travel client in the UK, which led to the decline in Travel and European revenue, Sonata has around 60 people in the US on H1B visas, which is minimal, and a major part of its US sta consists of local US hires, owing to acquisitions made in past years, Sonata earned around $1.7mn revenue from IBIS, which was EBITDA-neutral, a positive, Management maintains its stance of revenue growth being the biggest margin lever for Sonata. Key Risks Client-specific issues in any of the top-10 clients, which could impact revenue growth Growth pangs in the OPD vertical, given the disruptive impact of SMAC, which could aect revenue growth General growth volatility given Sonata s small size Event-specific risks such as BREXIT, which could impact IT budgets, cutting discretionary spend and delaying new deals With Donald Trump as US President, the risk of noise regards oshoring taking away US jobs, higher visa costs and a more punishing visa regime abound Cannibalisation of existing revenue particularly on the ADM and ERP side by the shift to cloud architecture Currency risks Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance (Consolidated) (Rs mn) 3QFY17 2QFY17 QoQ (%) 3QFY16 YoY (%) IITS Net Revenue ($mn) (2.9) Consolidated Net Revenue 6,126 5, , Inventory Costs 3,887 3, , Employee Costs 1,170 1, , Other Operating Expenses EBITDA (5.3) Depreciation EBIT (6.8) Interest Cost Other Income PBT (3.2) Tax (1.6) APAT (3.9) RPAT (3.9) 2

3 Exhibit 2: Margin break-up Particulars 3QFY17 2QFY17 QoQ (bps) 3QFY16 YoY (bps) Inventory Cost % Net Revenue Employee Cost % Net Revenue (248) 19.5 (35) SG&A and Other Expenses % Net Revenues (132) EBITDA Margin (%) (94) 10.8 (209) EBIT Margin (%) (90) 10.5 (217) Tax Rate (%) APAT Margin (%) (93) 7.7 (140) Exhibit 3: Actuals vs RSec (3QFY17) Actuals RSec estimates % variation from RSec estimates IITS Revenue (US$ mn) (3.8) Cons. Revenue (Rs mn) 6,126 6,595 (7.1) Cons. EBIT (Rs mn) (3.4) Cons. EBIT margin (%) bps Cons. Net profit (Rs mn) (6.4) Source: Bloomberg Exhibit 4: Assumptions Particulars FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E IITS USD revenue growth (%) USD/INR rate IITS EBITDA margin (%) DPS EBITDA margin (%) Cons. EBITDA margin (%) Exhibit 5: Vertical break-up OPD TTL CPG & Retail Others Total Exhibit 6: Vertical growth OPD (2.9) (8.5) (1.4) (6.0) TTL (3.0) (2.8) 12.2 (2.3) (4.2) 3.2 (9.8) CPG & Retail Others (5.7) (8.3) 3

4 Exhibit 7: Service line break-up ADM Testing AX ERP IMS BI E-commerce Mobility* Cloud* Rezopia Total ; Mobility and Cloud have been clubbed together wef. 3QFY17. Exhibit 8: Service line growth ADM (10.3) 0.4 (2.7) (0.3) (10.4) Testing (0.2) 4.0 (14.6) AX 15.4 (6.3) (2.1) (2.9) ERP (47.3) IMS BI (14.3) (2.9) E-commerce (10.0) (6.4) (20.3) (8.4) (2.9) Mobility* 0.0 (33.1) (48.0) 2.5 (46.6) (2.9) Cloud* 33.3 (24.7) 40.5 (48.0) (48.8) 6.8 Rezopia 0.0 (33.1) (14.5) (27.2) ; Mobility and Cloud have been clubbed together wef. 3QFY17. Exhibit 9: Geographic break-up USA Europe RoW Total Exhibit 10: Geographic growth USA (1.9) (1.2) Europe 0.0 (8.5) 5.4 (12.8) (10.4) RoW 7.1 (6.3) (2.1) 12.0 (4.9)

5 Exhibit 11: Onsite-oshore contribution Onsite Oshore Exhibit 12: Onsite-oshore growth Onsite (13.7) Oshore (1.5) (5.7) (1.4) Exhibit 13: Client contribution Top Non-top Total Exhibit 14: Client growth Top (3.2) (4.3) Non-top (3.2) (6.9)

6 Profit and Loss Statement Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Net Sales 16,821 19,405 24,396 28,113 31,986 Growth (%) Total Operating Expenses 15,145 17,486 22,386 25,704 29,055 EBITDA 1,676 1,919 2,010 2,408 2,932 EBITDA (%) EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation EBIT 1,616 1,857 1,918 2,305 2,817 EBIT (%) EBIT Growth (%) Other Income Interest PBT 1,787 2,216 2,203 2,628 3,181 Tax (incl deferred) ,018 Minority Interest (4) Exceptional Items PAT 1,337 1,586 1,542 1,813 2,163 PAT Growth (%) (2.8) EPS EPS Growth (%) (2.8) Balance Sheet Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity Reserves 4,179 4,605 5,137 5,815 6,716 Total Shareholders' Funds 4,284 4,710 5,243 5,920 6,821 Total Debt 244 1,713 1,713 1,713 1,713 Long Term Provisions & Others Creditors 2,496 2,655 3,373 3,873 4,378 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 1, Total Current Liabilities 3,533 3,334 4,123 4,670 5,223 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 8,081 9,919 11,240 12,465 13,918 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Goodwill & Other Intan. Assets Net Block CWIP Deferred Tax Assets LT Loans & Advances, Others Total Non Current Assets 1,252 1,989 2,141 2,318 2,523 Inventories Debtors 3,271 3,755 5,013 6,008 7,098 Cash & Bank 1,998 2,953 2,864 2,917 3,075 Liquid Investments Other Current Assets Total Current Assets 6,829 7,930 9,099 10,146 11,395 TOTAL APPLI. OF FUNDS 8,081 9,919 11,240 12,465 13,918 6

7 Cash Flow Statement Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E PAT 1,337 1,586 1,542 1,813 2,163 Non-operating & EO items Depreciation Working Capital Change (663) 512 (469) (448) (538) Cash Flow from Operations (a) 739 2,159 1,165 1,470 1,740 Capex (113) (258) (244) (281) (320) Investments Cash Flow from Investing (b) (87) (258) (244) (281) (320) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) Dividend (675) (1,676) (1,010) (1,136) (1,262) Cash Flow from Financing (c) (488) (1,489) (1,010) (1,136) (1,262) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (88) EO items, others (31) Closing Cash Balance 1,998 2,953 2,864 2,917 3,075 Free Cash Flow 626 1, ,188 1,420 Key Ratios Y/E Mar FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Profitability (%) EBITDA Margin APAT Margin RoE RoIC or Core RoCE RoCE Eiciency Tax Rate (%) Fixed Asset Turnover (x) Inventory (days) Debtors (days) Payables (days) Cash Conversion Cycle (days) Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (0.6) (0.9) (0.8) (1.4) (1.2) Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.2) (0.4) (0.3) (0.6) (0.5) Interest Coverage (x) Per Share Data (Rs) EPS CEPS DPS BV Valuation P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA OCF/EV (%) FCF/EV (%) FCFE/mkt cap (%) Dividend Yield (%)

8 Rating Guides Rating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months BUY >10% -5% to 10% REDUCE >-5% Reliance Securities Limited (RSL), the broking arm of Reliance Capital is one of the India s leading retail broking houses. Reliance Capital is amongst India s leading and most valuable financial services companies in the private sector. Reliance Capital has interests in asset management and mutual funds, life and general insurance, commercial finance, equities and commodities broking, wealth management services, distribution of financial products, private equity, asset reconstruction, proprietary investments and other activities in financial services. The list of associates of RSL is available on the website RSL is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 General Disclaimers: This Research Report (hereinafter called Report ) is prepared and distributed by RSL for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale of any security, derivatives or any other security through RSL nor any solicitation or oering of any investment /trading opportunity on behalf of the issuer(s) of the respective security(ies) referred to herein. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by RSL to be reliable. 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