CMP* (Rs) 263 Upside/ (Downside) (%) 7.3. Market Cap. (Rs bn) 635 Free Float (%) 59 Shares O/S (mn) 2,417

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1 2QFY18 Result Update November 01, 2017 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 635 Free Float (%) 59 Shares O/S (mn) 2,417 In-line Performance; Margins to Remain Strong (JSTL) has delivered an in-line performance in 2QFY18 with its standalone sales volume increasing by 2% YoY and 11.7% QoQ to 3.92mnT vs. our estimate of 3.95 mnt. Notably, JSTL recorded the highest 2Q sales volume. However, NSR fell by 3.2% QoQ to Rs38,153/tonne vs. our estimate of Rs40,879/tonne, which the Management attributed to lower realisation in coated business led by pressure from cheaper imports. EBITDA surged by 33.2% QoQ (+7.7% YoY) to Rs29.3bn vs. our estimate of Rs29.6bn, while EBITDA/tonne grew by a healthy 19.2% QoQ (+5.5% YoY) to Rs7,467 vs. our estimate Rs7,500. EBITDA margin expanded by 369bps QoQ (-264bps YoY) to 19.6% owing to lower overall operational cost especially on raw material front. Adjusted PAT surged by 26% YoY (+102% QoQ) to Rs8.45bn vs. our estimate of Rs7.43bn, largely due to higher-than-estimated other income and lower depreciation cost. Looking ahead, we expect JSTL s EBITDA/tonne to improve owing to higher steel prices and stable input cost. Hence, we maintain our recommendation on the stock with a revised SOTPbased Target Price of Rs282 (from Rs221 earlier). Share price (%) 1 mth 3 mth 12 mth Absolute performance Relative to Nifty (1.6) Shareholding Pattern (%) Jun'17 Sep'17 Promoter Public Year Stock Price Performance EBITDA/tonne Posts a Smart Recovery JSTL has delivered a healthy performance despite a sequential dip in realisation. Though the coking coal prices fell by ~US$15/tonne QoQ during the quarter, the same is expected to increase by ~US$5-10/tonne in 3QFY18E. It must be noted that the same increased to ~US$300/tonne in Apr 17 after averaging at US$220/tonne in 4QFY17, US$170/tonne in 3QFY17 and ~US$105/ tonne in 2QFY17. Further, though the prices fell to US$146/tonne in Jun 17, it again rose in Jul 17. Meanwhile, the iron ore prices another key raw material fell by ~Rs200/tonne QoQ in 2QFY18. Hence, the per tonne raw material cost declined by 7% QoQ to Rs22,395/tonne. Thus all costs declined in the range of % QoQ due to operational leverage Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Note: * CMP as on November 01, 2017 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Outlook & Valuation We expect JSTL s margins to inch-up, going forward as steel prices continue to remain firm in global steel markets driven by a surprise demand spurt in China. Moreover, the steel demand in domestic markets is also expected to be strong, which would drive the domestic steel prices further. Despite these positives, the valuations seem to be prohibitive especially following the sharp run-up in the stock price. However, we believe that JSTL continues to be the best bet in domestic steel space due to efficient operations and lean cost structure. We now value JSTL at 7x EBITDA (from 6x earlier) to factor in the positive changing environment. Thus, we maintain our recommendation on the stock with a revised SOTP-based Target Price of Rs282 (from Rs221 earlier). Key Financials (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Sales 518, , , ,117 EBITDA 75, , , ,055 Net profit (1,694) 24,058 41,246 48,965 EPS (Rs) (0.6) DPS (Rs) P/E (x) (447.6) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) (0.6) Dividend yield (%) Research Analyst: Kunal Motishaw Contact: (022) kunal.motishaw@relianceada.com 1

2 Risks to the View ff Upside Risk: Substantial decline in input cost and lower steel imports. f f Downside Risk: Significant deterioration in domestic steel demand and rise in steel imports from the current level. Exhibit 1: Financial Performance Particulars (Rs mn) 2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY (%) 1QFY18 QoQ (%) 1HFY18 1HFY17 YoY (%) Net Revenues 149, , , , , Other Income (6.7) Total Income 150, , , , , Total Expenses 120,290 95, , , , EBITDA 29,270 27, , ,250 57,780 (11.3) Interest 9,190 9, , ,260 17, Depreciation 7,720 7,881 (2.0) 7, ,040 14, Tax 4,400 3, , ,280 8,480 Adjusted PAT 8,450 6, , ,640 17,540 (27.9) Adjusted EPS (Rs) (27.9) Reported PAT 8,450 7, , ,640 17,540 Ratios (%) EBITDA Margins (%) Profit Margins (%) Tax rate %

3 Exhibit 2: Cost analysis (Rs/tonne) 2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY (%) 1QFY18 QoQ (%) Raw materials 22,395 16, ,060 (6.9) Staff Cost (1.3) 926 (17.3) Power & Fuel 3,033 2, ,125 (2.9) Others 4,492 4,593 (2.2) 5,048 (11.0) Total Cost / tonne 30,686 24, ,160 (7.5) Realization / tonne 38,153 31, ,422 (3.2) EBITDA/tonne 7,467 7, , EBITDA/tonne (US$) Sales volume (mn tonnes) EBIT/tonne (Rs) 5,497 5, , Exhibit 3: Realization, EBITDA and Sales Trend 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, QFY10 4QFY10 2QFY11 4QFY11 2QFY12 4QFY12 2QFY13 4QFY13 2QFY14 4QFY14 2QFY15 4QFY15 2QFY16 4QFY16 2QFY17 4QFY17 2QFY18 Realization / tonne (Rs) EBITDA/tonne (Rs) Sales volume (mn tonnes) RHS 3

4 Income Statement Y/E March (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Net sales 529, , , , ,117 Change (%) 3.4 (2.2) Total Expenses 435, , , , ,062 EBITDA 94,023 75, , , ,055 % of Net Sales Depn. & Amortization 34,345 41,910 44,937 47,518 49,764 EBIT 59,678 33,853 71,988 95, ,291 Net Interest 34,930 41,273 41,768 38,814 32,252 Other income 1,114 3,719 4,631 5,588 5,556 PBT before EO 25,862 (3,701) 34,850 62,518 73,595 EO income (471) PBT after EO 25,391 (3,701) 34,850 62,518 73,595 Tax 8,194 (2,006) 10,792 21,273 24,630 Rate (%) Reported PAT 17,197 (1,694) 24,058 41,246 48,965 Balance Sheet Y/E March (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Share Capital 2,417 2,417 2,417 2,417 2,417 Reserves 222, , , , ,920 Net Worth 225, , , , ,337 Minority Interest 1,670 1,670 1,670 1,670 1,670 Total Loans 393, , , , ,566 Deferred Tax Liability 21,234 21,234 21,234 21,234 21,234 Capital Employed 641, , , , ,808 Gross Block 729, , , , ,437 Less: Accum. Deprn. 184, , , , ,802 Net Fixed Assets 545, , , , ,635 Capital WIP 32,423 70,423 60,423 70,423 70,423 Investments 6,648 6,648 6,648 6,648 6,648 Associates 5,968 5,968 5,968 5,968 5,968 Liquid Investments Goodwill on Consolidation 15,619 15,619 15,619 15,619 15,619 Curr. Assets 252, , , , ,725 Inventory 90,132 88,713 93, , ,488 Account Receivables 26,889 24,992 27,554 27,689 29,025 Cash and Bank Balance 24,286 16,431 33,802 49,241 41,248 Others 111, , , , ,965 Curr. Liability & Prov. 210, , , , ,242 Account Payables 204, , , , ,992 Provisions & Others 5,734 5,917 6,231 8,521 10,250 Net Current Assets 42,057 23,381 53,017 70,469 64,482 Appl. of Funds 641, , , , ,808 4

5 Cash Flow Statement Y/E March (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Pre-tax Profit 25,391 (3,701) 34,850 62,518 73,595 Depreciation 34,345 41,910 44,937 47,518 49,764 (Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Cap. (13,392) 10,821 (12,265) (2,014) (2,007) Tax Paid (8,194) 2,006 (10,792) (21,273) (24,630) Other operating activities CF from Op.Activity 38,150 51,036 56,730 86,750 96,723 (Inc)/Dec in FA + CWIP (70,000) (44,000) (43,220) (47,500) (51,967) (Pur)/Sale of Invest. (21) Others 3,870 (684) (683) (685) (685) CF fr. Inv. Activity (66,151) (44,684) (43,903) (48,185) (52,652) Chg in minorities and associates Debt raised/(repaid) 46,286 (13,500) 5,465 (22,134) (51,000) Dividend (incl. tax) (650) (707) (921) (992) (1,063) (Inc)/Dec in Cash 17,656 (7,854) 17,371 15,438 (7,993) Add: Opening Balance 6,630 24,286 16,431 33,802 49,241 Closing Balance 24,286 16,431 33,802 49,241 41,248 Key Ratios Y/E March (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Valuation (x) P/E 34.0 (442.3) Cash P/E P/BV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/ton 90,527 90,014 88,931 85,516 81,606 Return Ratios (%) EBITDA Margins (%) Net Profit Margins (%) 3.5 (0.3) RoE 8.2 (0.6) RoCE RoIC Leverage Ratio (x) Current Ratio Interest Cover Ratio Debt/Equity

6 Rating Guides Rating Expected absolute returns (%) over 12 months BUY >10% -5% to 10% REDUCE >-5% Reliance Securities Limited (RSL), the broking arm of Reliance Capital is one of the India s leading retail broking houses. Reliance Capital is amongst India s leading and most valuable financial services companies in the private sector. Reliance Capital has interests in asset management and mutual funds, life and general insurance, commercial finance, equities and commodities broking, wealth management services, distribution of financial products, private equity, asset reconstruction, proprietary investments and other activities in financial services. The list of associates of RSL is available on the website RSL is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 General Disclaimers: This Research Report (hereinafter called Report ) is prepared and distributed by RSL for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale of any security, derivatives or any other security through RSL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportunity on behalf of the issuer(s) of the respective security(ies) referred to herein. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by RSL to be reliable. RSL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of RSL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. Risks: Trading and investment in securities are subject to market risks. There are no assurances or guarantees that the objectives of any of trading / investment in securities will be achieved. The trades/ investments referred to herein may not be suitable to all categories of traders/investors. The names of securities mentioned herein do not in any manner indicate their prospects or returns. The value of securities referred to herein may be adversely affected by the performance or otherwise of the respective issuer companies, changes in the market conditions, micro and macro factors and forces affecting capital markets like interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and reinvestment risk. Derivative products may also be affected by various risks including but not limited to counter party risk, market risk, valuation risk, liquidity risk and other risks. Besides the price of the underlying asset, volatility, tenor and interest rates may affect the pricing of derivatives. Disclaimers in respect of jurisdiction: The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by RSL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/ or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. RSL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to RSL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. Disclosure of Interest: The research analysts who have prepared this Report hereby certify that the views /opinions expressed in this Report are their personal independent views/ opinions in respect of the securities and their respective issuers. None of RSL, research analysts, or their relatives had any known direct /indirect material conflict of interest including any long/short position(s) in any specific security on which views/opinions have been made in this Report, during its preparation. RSL s Associates may have other potential/material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions at the time of publication of research report. RSL, its Associates, the research analysts, or their relatives might have financial interest in the issuer company(ies) of the said securities. RSL or its Associates may have received a compensation from the said issuer company(ies) in last 12 months for the brokerage or non brokerage services.rsl, its Associates, the research analysts or their relatives have not received any compensation or other benefits directly or indirectly from the said issuer company(ies) or any third party in last 12 months in any respect whatsoever for preparation of this report. The research analysts has served as an officer, director or employee of the said issuer company(ies)?: No RSL, its Associates, the research analysts or their relatives holds ownership of 1% or more, in respect of the said issuer company(ies).?: No Copyright: The copyright in this Report belongs exclusively to RSL. This Report shall only be read by those persons to whom it has been delivered. No reprinting, reproduction, copying, distribution of this Report in any manner whatsoever, in whole or in part, is permitted without the prior express written consent of RSL. RSL s activities were neither suspended nor have defaulted with any stock exchange with whom RSL is registered. Further, there does not exist any material adverse order/judgments/ strictures assessed by any regulatory, government or public authority or agency or any law enforcing agency in last three years. Further, there does not exist any material enquiry of whatsoever nature instituted or pending against RSL as on the date of this Report. Important These disclaimers, risks and other disclosures must be read in conjunction with the information / opinions / views of which they form part of. RSL CIN: U65990MH2005PLC SEBI registration no. ( Stock Brokers: NSE - INB / INF / INE ; BSE - INB / INF / INE , Depository Participants: CDSL IN-DP IN-DP-NSDL , Research Analyst: INH ); AMFI ARN No

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