Fairfax Employment Forecast. May 2013 Edition

Transcription

1 airfax Employment orecast May 13 Edition

2 Introduction The has provided an accurate picture of the current and future Australian employment market since 3. The report is produced every six months by EMDA, an Australian based Economic and Market Development Consultancy, and sponsored by airfax Media. The report covers the Australian, mainland states, professional and managerial markets as well as key industries. The May 13 edition finds that the number of jobs continues to grow and that the rate of growth is slowly lifting. In fact, a record level of employment for Australia was reached in early 13. There are a number of differences amongst sectors. Both the Mining sector and the Health and Community Service sector are growing strongly, but other areas such as the Public Sector and Manufacturing are declining. The report also finds that the jobs growth has not been even amongst segments. Twilight Careers remains the fastest growing, with numbers again reaching record levels. On the other hand, the jobs market has been flat for Generation Y. The market overall for Professionals and Managers in Australia has returned to growth after a weak 11. At the state level, WA continues to be a standout in terms of jobs growth while SA is in the doldrums. NSW is growing again, while Victoria and Queensland are showing signs of tentative growth. This edition also finds that a number of indicators are pointing to a better job market. Total hours worked have increased for the fourth month in a row. The rate of job creation has also started to lift, while business and consumer confidence has started to pick up again. Turning to the outlook, this report finds there are more positive signs going forward. The European debt situation is stabilising and the US economy is recovering. A contributing factor to the latter is the US ederal Reserve s announcement of additional monetary measures, basically to lower interest rates further. In Australia, business and consumer confidence is better. Interest rates have fallen, which should stimulate the market, while business employment intentions remain positive, although subdued in the year to December 1. The forward indicators therefore are pointing to a more positive outlook with growth picking up through the new year. In the year to ebruary 1, 15, positions are forecast to be added to the Australian job market. This is an improvement on the year to August 1, a low point, when just 58, new positions were added. However, even this growth would best be described as moderate. By way of contrast, in early 11, more than 3, jobs were being added to the economy. The airfax Employment Network allows advertisers to execute innovative, high impact recruitment campaigns across more than 8 airfax owned and partner brands.

3 Contents Summary 6 Australia 7 New South Wales 8 Victoria 9 Queensland 1 Western Australia 11 South Australia 1 ull Time & Part Time Jobs 13 Australia Professional/Managers 1 NSW Professional/Managers 15 VIC Professional/Managers 16 QLD Professional/Managers 17 WA Professional/Managers 18 SA Professional/Managers 19 Engineering Mining 1 Information & Communication Technology Retail 3 Tourism & Hospitality Media & Marketing 5 Human Resources & Recruitment 6 Health & Community Services 7 Education 8 Government 9 inancial Services 3 Property & Business Services 31 Construction & Property 3 Transport & Storage 33 Manufacturing 3 Aboriginal & Torres Strait Island Employment 35 Aboriginal & Torres Strait Island Employment States 36 Gen X, Y, Boomers, Twilight Careers 37 Candidate Environment Index Australia 38 Candidate Environment Index States 39 Australian Salary Review Retrospective 1 Glossary of Terms Methodology 3 Disclaimer 3

4 Summary A strengthening job market is forecast for Australia over 13 n With business and consumer confidence rising, the Australian job market is forecast to accelerate with 15, jobs to be added by ebruary 1. n ull time jobs are still growing, with the rate of growth increasing. The WA jobs juggernaut rolls on, with this state adding 55, jobs. After a long period of slowing growth in QLD, things are about to pick up. WESTERN AUSTRALIA QUEENSLAND SOUTH AUSTRALIA NEW SOUTH WALES VICTORIA The NSW economy is growing again after a soft 11 and early 1. After a very weak 1 in SA, there are signs of a turnaround. After a flat 1, 13 is looking better for VIC.

5 Engineering A shortage of engineers continues, especially in mining-related sectors. Mining Although some unprofitable mines are shedding jobs, jobs growth continues overall. Information & Communication Technology The industry is growing strongly and more growth is expected. Retail This sector is starting to lift out the doldrums and e-retailing is growing strongly. Tourism & Hospitality This sector is turning around, with jobs growing again. Media & Marketing This sector is well up from the trough of 11. Human Resources & Recruitment After a woeful second half of 1 and a weak first quarter, growth is forecast. Education Population growth will see this sector continue to rise. Government Staff reductions are taking a toll on this sector but the end to cost cutting is in sight. inancial Services With business confidence picking up again, the outlook in this sector is improving. Property & Business Services This sector has come back to life after the slump of 11 and more growth is forecast. Construction & Property There are signs that this sector is starting to improve again, with a lift in confidence. Transport & Storage This sector is returning to growth after a soft few years. Manufacturing This sector is still struggling under competitive headwinds. Health & Community Services This sector is the fastest growing sector in total numbers, with more growth forecast. The Generations The job market has slowed for Generation Y but jobs for Twilight Careers are at record levels. Professional/ Managers The Professional/Managers employment market has returned to growth and more is expected over 13 with jobs forecast to grow.%. Salary As the job market picks up, wages growth is also expected to lift, with managers and professionals expected to be better off than the rest of the workforce. Aboriginal & Torres Strait Island Employment Aboriginal employment growth outpaces the total population. 5

6 Australia Solid and rising growth is forecast for Australia overall ACTUAL (eb 13) : 11,59 18 additional jobs in the last 1 months 1.1% additional jobs since last quarter.3% ANNUAL GROWTH GROWTH May 13 11, Aug 13 11, Nov 13 11, eb 1 11, AUS % p.a. AUS GROWTH % Private Consumption Capital Expenditure GDP NAB Confidence Source: EMDA Model 13 eb Aug eb 5 Aug 5 eb 6 Aug 6 eb 7 Aug 7 eb 8 Aug 8 eb 9 Aug 9 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 11 Aug 11 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 13 Aug 13 eb 1 The Australian economy continues to grow, with GDP growing by.9% in the year to December 1. Although this is a slowdown in the pace of growth, it is nevertheless a very good result in what was generally a weak global market. With the reduction in interest rates, some stabilisation of the European and American debt situations, plus a rise in global equity markets, business and consumer confidence is rising in Australia. Both indicators have been trending up for months now. Within such reasonable conditions, the Australian economy added 18, jobs over the year to ebruary 13 and while this is well below pre-gc rates, it is still solid enough to keep unemployment at historically quite low levels. Job vacancies, although still softening in ebruary 13, were even then still at quite high levels, with 19,8 vacancies recorded. Even at the peak of the boom prior to the GC, 18,9 vacancies were recorded in Australia, showing that the current level is not far behind that. Total hours worked is another indicator of the current state of the job market and this has started to increase again, with hours worked up.% in ebruary 13. This is the fourth month in row of increases and further points to an improving job market. There are positive signs going forward. The European debt situation is stabilising and although flare-ups can be expected - for example, the Cyprus bank run - the indicators are considerably more positive than they were last report. Domestically, there are signs that lower interest rates are stimulating the retail and housing markets after being in the doldrums for several years. With employment intentions remaining positive (+. to December 1), the jobs outlook is positive with growth picking up through the new year. In the year to ebruary 1, 15, jobs are forecast to be added to the Australian job market. This is about two-thirds of the level prior to the GC and with such low unemployment, skills shortages will re-emerge as a more significant issue. Work/life balance will also start to re-emerge as an issue. 6

7 New South Wales The largest state economy is growing again after a soft 11 and early 1 ACTUAL (eb 13) : 3,6 1 additional jobs in the last 1 months 1.1% 17 additional jobs since last quarter.5% ANNUAL GROWTH GROWTH May 13 3, Aug 13 3, Nov 13 3, eb 1 3, NSW % p.a. NSW GROWTH % NSW Consumption NSW GSP NAB Confidence Source: EMDA Model 13 eb Aug eb 5 Aug 5 eb 6 Aug 6 eb 7 Aug 7 eb 8 Aug 8 eb 9 Aug 9 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 11 Aug 11 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 13 Aug 13 eb 1 After a fairly soft mid-11, jobs growth has been picking up slowly in New South Wales. In the year to ebruary 13, 1, jobs have been added to a growing economy. In fact, the NSW economy is the second fastest growing state economy, after WA, with its economy growing.7% in December 1 compared with December 11. One of the drivers has been continued population growth, showing an increase of 78,9 over the year to June 1. On an annual basis, a very solid 3, full time jobs have been added to the state s economy. This compares to just 13, full time positions added in the year to June 1. In contrast, just 8, part time positions were added, indicating that employers are becoming more confident in taking on full time staff. The unemployment rate in NSW remains at 5.%, a level that has hardly changed from January 1. Still, this does equate to 198,8 people looking for work. The unemployment rate amongst men and women is similar, running at 5.% amongst males and 5.1% amongst females. Due to unemployment being still relatively low and jobs growth picking up, labour shortages will increase. With business and consumer confidence improving, the job market is forecast to gather more momentum. The annual rate of jobs growth is forecast to increase by 7, by ebruary 1, featuring a strong component of full time growth. 7

8 Victoria Victoria is emerging from the doldrums ACTUAL (eb 13) :,88 additional jobs in the last 1 months.8% 9 additional jobs since last quarter.3% ANNUAL GROWTH GROWTH May 13, Aug 13, Nov 13, eb 1, VIC Consumption VIC GSP VIC % p.a. VIC GROWTH % NAB Confidence Source: EMDA Model 13 eb Aug eb 5 Aug 5 eb 6 Aug 6 eb 7 Aug 7 eb 8 Aug 8 eb 9 Aug 9 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 11 Aug 11 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 13 Aug 13 eb 1 The Victorian economy can be characterised as an economy in a holding pattern with State inal Demand - an estimate of the level of spending by private and public sectors - softening.3% in the year to December 1. However, despite the flat economy, the economy added, jobs in the year to ebruary 13. Since Christmas the rate of jobs growth has increased, with ebruary 13 recording a % gain for the month alone. Over the year, 33, part time positions have been added, versus a loss of 11, full time positions. The reduction in full time positions reflects the flat state of the economy. A major factor contributing to the overall jobs growth is population growth. This element continues to be strong in Victoria, with the population growing by 89, (+1.6%), the highest of any state, including NSW. This surge, however, has not been significant enough to stem the growth in unemployment, which is at a rate of 5.7%. Prior to the GC, Victoria s unemployment rate was below 5%. rom an outlook point of view, business confidence is lifting from the mid-1 trough, retail spending is improving and the Melbourne housing market is showing signs of growth post-christmas. The EMDA model is forecasting a continued and solid pick-up in jobs growth as the economy gathers some momentum thanks to lower interest rates and improved confidence. By ebruary 1, annual jobs growth is forecast to reach a very solid 5, positions, with a switch back to full time jobs growth. 8

9 Queensland After a long period of slowing growth, growth is about to pick-up ACTUAL (eb 13) :,339 8 additional jobs in the last 1 months.% additional jobs since last quarter.1% ANNUAL GROWTH GROWTH May 13, Aug 13, Nov 13, eb 1, QLD % p.a. QLD GROWTH % QLD Consumption QLD GSP NAB Confidence Source: EMDA Model 13 eb Aug eb 5 Aug 5 eb 6 Aug 6 eb 7 Aug 7 eb 8 Aug 8 eb 9 Aug 9 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 11 Aug 11 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 13 Aug 13 eb 1 The Queensland economy has rebounded strongly from the floods of early 1, with the economy growing.5% in the December 1 quarter compared to the same time last year. The employment market is showing signs of responding to this activity, with jobs growth increasing in the ebruary 13 quarter. Population growth has also helped maintain some jobs growth, with the population rising 86, (+1.9%) in the year to June 1. ull time jobs growth, while positive at 13,, has been very subdued by Queensland standards. By way of contrast, just prior to the GC the state added 93, full time jobs in 7 alone. Unusually for a soft economy, part time positions fell over the 1 months by 5, jobs. This soft economy has seen a significant rise in unemployment, reaching 5.8%. Prior to the GC, it was below %. The unemployment rate amongst males is slightly higher at 5.9%, whereas amongst females it is 5.6%. Nevertheless, the outlook is brighter, with the EMDA model forecasting a rising jobs market, its growth accelerating to 1.5% in the year to ebruary 1. This translates into an additional 36, jobs for the state. Improved business and consumer confidence will be key drivers backed by continued population growth. Business confidence has already been lifting from the mid-year trough of 1. 9

10 Western Australia The WA jobs juggernaught continues ACTUAL (eb 13) : 1,33 55 additional jobs in the last 1 months.% 1 additional jobs since last quarter.9% ANNUAL GROWTH GROWTH May 13 1, Aug 13 1, Nov 13 1, eb 1 1, WA % p.a. WA GROWTH % WA Consumption WA GSP NAB Confidence Source: EMDA Model 13 eb Aug eb 5 Aug 5 eb 6 Aug 6 eb 7 Aug 7 eb 8 Aug 8 eb 9 Aug 9 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 11 Aug 11 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 13 Aug 13 eb 1 The Western Australian economy hardly missed a beat with its incredibly strong growth. In the December 1 quarter, the economy grew by 11.1% compared to last year. To put it in perspective, this is even faster growth than in China. NSW is the next fastest growing state, but WA dwarfs its rate of.7%. Not surprisingly, jobs have been growing spectacularly in WA, with the annual rate of jobs growth up.% in the year to ebruary 13. The continued Mining sector has been the biggest contributor, backed by strong population growth. The state s population grew by 78, (+3.3%) in the year to June 1, the actual numerical growth in numbers on a par with NSW, Queensland and Victoria. As a further sign of the strength of its economy, WA added 8,7 full time jobs over the year to ebruary 13. This is a rate of growth of 5.5%, a spectacular achievement in a soft world economy. Only 6, part time jobs were created, highlighting the preference by employers for full time workers. The WA unemployment rate is still very low, down at.%, the lowest of all the states. Amongst males it is still at a very low.%. Business confidence is growing again in WA and remains the highest of any state. With a still solid Mining sector, business confidence rising and low interest rates, the EMDA model is forecasting continued strong job market. Jobs are expected to rise by 3.5% in the year to ebruary 1. 1

11 South Australia After a very weak 1, there are signs of a turnaround ACTUAL (eb 13) : jobs in the -.3% jobs since.1% ANNUAL GROWTH GROWTH May Aug Nov eb SA % p.a. SA GROWTH % SA Consumption SA GSP NAB Confidence Source: EMDA Model 13 eb Aug eb 5 Aug 5 eb 6 Aug 6 eb 7 Aug 7 eb 8 Aug 8 eb 9 Aug 9 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 11 Aug 11 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 13 Aug 13 eb 1 or South Australia, the impact of the GC has hit much later than the other states. However, there are signs that the worst is behind as business confidence continues to rise from the trough of mid-1. The economy overall has been fairly flat, neither really growing nor shrinking for about a year now. Population growth has also been soft in SA, growing by just 16,5 (+1.%). This situation has resulted in a slight decline in the total jobs in the state, down by, over the year to ebruary 13. Part time positions grew by 5, over the year, but full time opportunities suffered from the weak economy, down 7, over the year. The has seen a slight turnaround, with total jobs growing by a few hundred. With the weak economy, it is perhaps no surprise that the unemployment rate has risen in SA to 5.9%, the highest of the mainland states. Unemployment is higher amongst males, reaching 6.%, versus the female rate of 5.7%. On a brighter note, lower interest rates are starting to have an impact and business confidence is improving, lifting from the trough of mid-june last year. On the back of better confidence, the job market is forecast to start recovering with an annual employment growth of 7, by ebruary 1. 11

12 ull Time & Part Time Jobs ull time jobs are continuing to grow and more is expected 8,99 total T jobs in the last 1 months.9% growth in T in the 3,3 total PT jobs in the last 1 months 1.5% growth in PT jobs in the last 1 months TOTAL ULL TIME JOBS IN ULL TIME JOBS TOTAL PART TIME JOBS ( S) IN PART TIME JOBS (% p.a) May 13 8,1 1. 3,8 1.6 Aug 13 8, , Nov 13 8, ,8.1 eb 1 8, ,511. ULL TIME % p.a. PART TIME % p.a. Private Consumption Capital Expenditure GDP NAB Confidence Source: EMDA Model 13 eb Aug eb 5 Aug 5 eb 6 Aug 6 eb 7 Aug 7 eb 8 Aug 8 eb 9 Aug 9 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 11 Aug 11 eb 1 Aug 1 eb 13 Aug 13 eb 1 ull time employment continues to grow, with the annual rate of growth increasing. In the middle of last year, 6,7 full time jobs were added. By the beginning of this year, however, the annual rate had increased to 75,. Nevertheless, this is still well down from the peak days when more than, full time jobs were added in a year. The slowdown in growth has seen a rise in the full time unemployment rate to 5.5%, but at least, relative to other parts of the world, this is still very low. ull time wages are growing at 3.6%, slightly below the long-term average. Part time jobs are also increasing, with the annual rate increasing to 5,1 jobs. This compares with the market growing 33, part time jobs over the year to December 1. There are now 19, unemployed looking for part time work, a 5.5% increase from the same time last year. With the economy expected to pick up steam again, now that the global economic situation appears improved, full time jobs are forecast to grow by 1.6% by the beginning of 1. Part time and casual jobs are also predicted to continue to grow, with employees valuing the flexibility this option offers and increasing numbers of people preferring to take up part time positions to suit their work/life balance. 1

13 Australia Professional/Managers Growth in this category is trending up after a weak end to 1 ACTUAL (eb 13) :,1.%.% May 13, Aug 13, Nov 13,1. 1. AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % Business Cap EX Aus. GDP Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 The Professional/Managers employment market in Australia has improved since mid-11, but by historical standards it is still subdued. In the year to ebruary 13, jobs increased by.%. Nevertheless, positions in this category reached a record level, topping the,, mark. The employment market has been mixed for Professionals and Managers. On the one hand, positions for managers have softened slightly, with jobs declining.% over the year. On the other, jobs for professionals continue to grow quite strongly, with positions up 3.%. Positions for more senior level managers are growing quite well, while positions for all types of professionals continue to grow. As an example, jobs for professionals in ICT are up.%. In health they are up 1.7%, and in business and marketing they are up.3%. Remuneration in this category continued to outpace inflation. Managerial and professional salaries are now growing at similar levels, with professional salaries increasing by.1% and managerial salaries by.6% in the year to December 1. With the economy continuing to grow and pick up pace, jobs for professionals and managers are also forecast to continue to grow. The pace of growth is also predicted to pick up, increasing to.% by the end of November

14 NSW Professional/Managers The market is forecast to recover ACTUAL (eb 13) : 1,97.% -.7% May 13 1,3.1. Aug 13 1, Nov 13 1, NSW Business Cap. Ex NSW GSP NSW % p.a. NSW GROWTH % p.a Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 Despite the New South Wales economy overall, this sector has been sluggish, with positions barely growing over the year and the proving to be quite weak. The uncertainty in the global situation prior to Christmas took its toll on the market. Managerial positions are static, with jobs down just.%, although this is mainly due to a softening in farm management positions. Demand for specialist managers has been weaker, with jobs down by 3.1%. Professional positions continue to grow, although even this sub-sector has not been immune from the slowdown, with jobs growing now at just.5%, whereas pre-gc they were growing at just under 6%. The demand for business professionals has been stronger, with positions up.5%, while accountants and human resources professional positions are growing again. Positions for health professionals took a dip, which is unusual for this sub-category. Positions for ICT professionals continue to grow, with jobs up.% over the year. With the NSW economy gathering momentum during the first half of 13, the outlook for the Professional/Managers sector is quite good, with positions forecast to grow by 1.7% p.a. by November 13. The professional market is still expected to be the stronger of the two markets, thanks to a recovery in the Health sector. 1

15 VIC Professional/Managers Despite the soft economy, jobs are growing in this category ACTUAL (eb 13) : 1,61.%.9% May 13 1,68..7 Aug 13 1, Nov 13 1, VIC Business Cap EX VIC GDP VIC % p.a. VIC GROWTH % p.a. Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 Despite the relatively weak Victorian economy, positions in this market have grown quite strongly. Over the year to ebruary 13, positions are up.%. Unlike other states, positions for both managers and professionals have been growing. Managerial positions are growing solidly (5.%) after declining since the middle of last year. Positions for specialist managers continue to rebound, with jobs rising by 3.7% after falling for more than a year. Management positions in the hospitality area have turned around, with jobs up 3.1%. Positions for more senior management are also growing strongly. Professional positions are growing again, with jobs up 3.3%. Positions for business, human resources and marketing are growing at 3.1%. Positions for ICT professionals are also growing (1.6%), while roles for education professionals have rebounded strongly. With the economy expected to gather momentum after a flat year, managerial and professional positions are forecast to continue to grow, with jobs up 3.3% by November

16 QLD Professional/Managers After a weak first half the outlook is better ACTUAL (eb 13) : 79 1.% -.% May Aug Nov QLD Business Cap. Ex QLD GSP QLD % p.a. QLD GROWTH % p.a. - - Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 With the Queensland economy still growing, positions in this sector are increasing as well, up 1.% p.a. However, during the last half of the year the market was weaker, reflecting the uncertainty in the world economy. There has been a big difference in outcomes for the managerial and professional categories in this state. In the year to ebruary 13, managerial positions fell.7%. Roles for specialist managers and hospitality managers were softer, as were farm management positions. On the other hand, demand for professional positions is growing at.7% p.a. Business, human resources and sales/marketing positions are all growing more than the overall job market (+.%). Design, engineering and science professionals are growing again, reflecting the economy. Jobs for education professionals are up 5.% and, as always, jobs for health professionals continue to grow. These positions are up.6%. Jobs for ICT professionals are increasing by just over 1%. With the Queensland economy expected to return to better times due to the improved global situation, more growth is expected in the managerial and professional job areas. By November 13, jobs are forecast to be growing at a solid 1.3% on an annual basis, with quarterly growth picking up. 16

17 WA Professional/Managers Thanks to a strong economy, this market is growing strongly ACTUAL (eb 13) : 6.% 1.1% May Aug Nov WA Business Cap EX WA GSP WA % p.a. WA GROWTH % p.a. - Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 With the Western Australian economy growing very strongly, jobs for professionals and managers continue to increase, rising 6.% in the year to ebruary 13. Notably, the ebruary 13 quarter was very solid. Jobs for both managers and professionals are increasing, although professional jobs are growing at a much faster rate. With the improved economic growth, managerial positions are up.%. Jobs for specialist managers are up 1.5% and positions for senior management are growing strongly. Professional positions are growing, with jobs increasing at 9.% in the year ended ebruary 13. Demand for business-related professionals is growing strongly as it is for health-related professionals. Skills shortages continue in that area. With the Mining sector still forecast to grow, thanks to commodity prices remaining solid and large mine expansions underway, the forecast for the WA Professional/Managers sector is for increased growth. Jobs are expected to rise by 1.% in the quarter ended November 13, with an annual growth rate of.7%. Skills shortages will continue to be a feature of this market, especially in the mining and mining support related areas. 17

18 SA Professional/Managers The outlook is a little better ACTUAL (eb 13) : 7-1.1% -.6% May Aug Nov SA Business Cap. Ex SA GSP SA % p.a. SA GROWTH % p.a. Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 With a fairly weak economic environment, the South Australian managerial and professional market has been soft over the last year or so. Overall, positions in these occupations fell 1.1% across the year. However, there is a big difference between professional and managerial positions. Managerial positions decreased 7% over the year, one of the biggest declines in the last 15 years. Roles for farm managers and senior managers fell, although amongst this gloom, opportunities for specialist managers increased. The professionals market has been much better, with employment up 3.%. One area that has been particularly strong is roles for health professionals, which have grown 8%. Roles for ICT and business professionals have been weaker. The SA economy is forecast to continue to recover and business confidence is rising after the trough of mid-1, but growth is expected to be at a slow pace. As a consequence, positions for professionals and managers are expected to grow, with jobs rising by.% in the November 13 quarter. This would take annual growth to.1% by that time, a very subdued growth rate by historical standards. 18

19 Engineering This sector is growing strongly and shortages are apparent ACTUAL (eb 13) : % 3.% May Aug Nov Construction Cap EX 5 AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % p.a. Residential Building 15 Aus. GDP Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 The Engineering sector had a stronger quarter in ebruary 13, thanks to a swag of major engineering projects underway. Positions grew 3. % in this quarter alone, making it one of the fastest growing segments in the economy. Reflecting the continued strength in the Mining sector, positions for mining engineers grew 3.6% over the year, broadly in line with the total increase in jobs in that sector. Demand also picked up for engineering managers over the year while jobs for electrical engineers are growing strongly again. However, it is not all good news. In the civil engineering sub-sector, positions have fallen as a response to a weaker civil construction program, while growth has slowed in the chemical engineering sub-sector, reflecting the difficulty in finding suitable people. In WA, hydrologists continue to be in strong demand, as do senior environmental advisors with mining project experience. Mechanical engineers with experience working on resources processing and materials handling projects are also being sought. The significant size of several gas extraction (LNG) projects underway, including the Gorgon project off the north-west coast of WA, will see demand remain strong for engineers specialising in this area. With the economy gathering pace, the Mining sector remaining solid and the Construction sector recovering, the demand for engineers will only grow. The EMDA model is forecasting that engineering positions will be growing at 7.7% p.a. by November 13. This growth will mean that skills shortages in this category will worsen, more pressure will be applied to salaries, and there will be an increase in the need to recruit engineers from overseas. 19

20 Mining Although some unprofitable mines are shedding jobs, overall growth continues ACTUAL (eb 13) : % 1.% May Aug Nov STATE % p.a. (YE ebruary 13) WA 15.9 SA.7 QLD 17.5 VIC 6.3 NSW 8.7 Engineering Construction Trade Weighted Index Mining Confidence AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % p.a Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 The Mining sector continues to be a very strong performer for Australia, with jobs growing at an annual rate of 15.1% to the year ended ebruary 13. Growth over the last 1 years has been spectacular, with this sector adding 183, jobs. It has grown more than 3% in that time. However, growth has slowed in recent times, due to a number of reasons. Commodity prices have become more volatile - forcing some unprofitable mines to shed staff - and may well have peaked. urther, the political landscape in Australia is less certain with mining-related taxes, industrial relations issues and the need for government investment in infrastructure all high on the agenda. Competition from overseas is also expanding as other mines come into operation or expand, while salary levels are generally very high, placing pressure on costs. These factors mean that overall, the industry is still experiencing solid demand but costs are higher. Despite these issues, planned investment is 33% higher in the December 13 quarter than it was in December 1. This will provide a foundation for continued jobs growth, although at a slower pace. Mining has the lowest share of part time jobs of any sector. Part timers comprise just 3% of the workforce, a level that has remained largely unchanged for years. With commodity prices trending up, business confidence in this sector is growing again. But the issues outlined above mean that growth will continue, albeit at a slower pace. Even so, the EMDA model shows growth of.% in the November 13 quarter, meaning mining will remain one of Australia s fastest growing industries.

21 Information & Communication Technology This sector is picking up some steam ACTUAL (eb 13) : % 1.% May Aug Nov STATE % p.a. (YE ebruary 13) WA -3. SA 7. QLD.9 VIC 8. NSW.7 GDP Business Cap-Ex Employment Intentions AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % p.a. - - Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 The Information and Communication Technology occupations grew a healthy 5.5% in the year to ebruary 13, adding 5, jobs to the sector. Positions for professionals grew 3.% while management roles have recovered and continue to grow strongly (1.7). After a decline in 1 amongst web designers, this sub-sector is growing again, while jobs for trainers are also growing following a dismal 11. State-wise, the ICT sector is growing solidly in all states other than in WA, which is a little softer and more a reflection of finding suitable staff. Organisations across the board often have trouble attracting eastern seaboard professionals to WA, and that is the case in this category. In SA, jobs have recovered after some steep reductions last year. NSW is experiencing growth in line with the overall economic growth of that state, while in Victoria the growth points to better times soon as business confidence grows and the willingness to commence new projects increases. In Queensland, jobs continue to grow after steep declines in 1. Overall, the outlook for this sector continues to be quite bright. Major upgrade work is underway in corporate Australia, the rollout of the National Broadband Network and better business confidence are all positive aspects. The result is the ICT industry is forecast to continue to grow, with jobs growing at.% p.a. by the year ended November 13. 1

22 Retail This sector is starting to lift out the doldrums ACTUAL (eb 13) : 1,16 -.1%.% May 13 1,.6.3 Aug 13 1, Nov 13 1, STATE % p.a. (YE ebruary 13) WA.3 SA -. QLD -1.3 VIC. NSW -3. Private Consumption 8 6 AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % p.a. Imports Retail Confidence - - Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 Jobs have started to grow again in this sector during the last quarter, with clear signs the market is turning. Now that the European debt situation has stabilised somewhat, consumer confidence has improved to a point where it is only just below what it was prior to the GC. Reductions in interest rates have also contributed and savings levels have reached their peak. Retail sales are starting to grow again and this has supported the growth in jobs in the. Currently, retail sales are growing at 3.% over the year to January 13, an increase from.1% at the beginning of last year. Retail positions based around e-retailing are growing strongly, whereas store-based positions are still softening. Retail sales in NSW have lifted slightly but are still fairly subdued and so the job market is still soft. In Victoria, sales growth is expanding, albeit at a slow rate, yet the job market has improved. In Queensland, spending has softened, and although the rate of decline has slowed, the job market is still weaker. In WA, retail sales are still powering along but growth has slowed and this has resulted in a slowdown in the growth of jobs. In SA, retail sales are falling and so are jobs. This reflects the weak economy in that state. With input continuing to be more positive, plus business and consumer confidence maintaining improvement, combined with lower interest rates, the outlook for this sector has improved. The EMDA model is forecasting growth of 1.5% on an annual basis by November 13.

23 Tourism & Hospitality This sector is turning around with jobs growing again ACTUAL (eb 13) : 783.1% 1.9% May Aug Nov STATE % p.a. (YE ebruary 13) WA -. SA -5.3 QLD -.3 VIC 6.7 NSW -.7 Aus. GDP, Private Consumption OECD Economic Growth Exchange Rate Employment Intentions AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % p.a. -6 Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 Jobs growth has returned to this sector after a poor 1, with positions growing at.1% p.a. in the year to ebruary 13. The domestic tourism market is better, improving in the year to December 1 with an eighth consecutive quarter of increased domestic visitors. Over the year, there were.5 million additional domestic overnight visitors across Australia. This generated increased spending of 3% by Australians in Australia in the year to December 1. The trend towards holidaying close to home plus continued growth in more affordable forms of travel - such as Visiting riends and Relatives (VR) and the least expensive of all forms of domestic travel, the day trip unfolded further in 1 as consumers continued to look for ways to save. There was also improvement on the international visitor front. In the year to December 1, the number of international visitors to Australia grew by %. VR travel delivered the strongest growth at 8%, however holiday visitation also increased by %. China grew as a global force in tourism with significant increases in visitors and expenditure across the world, including Australia. There are also signs that the high yield European markets have started to turn around recent declines. At the state level, Queensland is showing small growth, while WA and SA are still soft. Victoria and NSW are also growing again. With the domestic and international tourism improving, the outlook for the states is better as well. The number of Australians travelling out of Australia continues to be a dampener, although growth is slowing. However, the net result is this market is forecast to continue to expand, with an annual growth rate of 3.8% expected by November 13. 3

24 Media & Marketing This sector is well up from the trough of 11 ACTUAL (eb 13) : % -1.3% May Aug Nov AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % p.a. Aus. GDP Employment Intentions Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 The Media and Marketing sector employed 93, people in the year to ebruary 13 and grew an impressive 3.1% over the year after a terrible 11. This sector is one of the most responsive to the state of the economy. As the economy and business confidence improves, jobs growth is anticipated to return. In a sign of some improvement in conditions, positions for advertising and marketing professionals are growing again after a very weak 11 and first half of 1, although management positions in this sector are weak. In a surprising turnaround, positions for journalists and other writers continue to grow, thanks to the spurt in on-line content at the expense of more traditional media. At the state level, positions in NSW are growing again on an annual basis (1.7%) after a woeful 11. Victoria is also experiencing a return to growth (1.9%) after a very slow 11. Positions are growing again in Queensland (7.1%), while in SA conditions are soft. WA has also been strong, but finding suitable candidates has been an issue. The outlook for this sector is better as economic uncertainty starts to fade and business confidence grows. The EMDA model is forecasting that the sector will continue to grow, with jobs increasing over the next six months. Growth of 1.5% is forecast by the November 13 quarter.

25 Human Resources & Recruitment After a woeful second half of 1 and weak first quarter, growth is forecast ACTUAL (eb 13) : % -.7% May Aug Nov Aus. GDP Employment Confidence AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % p.a Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 The Human Resources and Recruitment sector is very responsive to the state of business play. As confidence stalled in mid-1, due to new concerns about the European debt situation, so also did recruitment in this sector. In the year to ebruary 13, jobs fell by 7.%, a rate not much lower than the depths this sector reached at the start of the GC. Positions for managers grew, although the rate slowed down considerably. This growth is a result of businesses focusing more on the bottom line, with HR managers in high demand to work directly with senior executives on streamlining policies, adjusting procedures and managing human resources in the most efficient manner. While positions for training/development professionals and human resources professionals fell, the good news is that with business confidence rising, this sector is forecast to turn around. At the state level, jobs are trending upwards in NSW as the economy expands further. In Victoria, positions have contracted as the economy has softened, diminishing the demand for recruitment services. In a direct correlation with the strength of their economies, positions are flat in Queensland, while in WA jobs are still growing strongly, although the rate of growth has declined. In SA, jobs are increasing a little, but after a very weak year in 1. As for the future, with the economy picking up and business confidence improving, the jobs outlook is better after a poor ebruary 13 quarter. Growth is forecast to increase to a solid.5% by the November 13 quarter. This is a reasonable rate but still below pre-gc levels. 5

26 Health & Community Services This sector continues to grow as it usually does ACTUAL (eb 13) : 1,37 3.%.8% May 13 1, Aug 13 1, Nov 13 1, STATE % p.a. (YE ebruary 13) WA.8 SA 9.9 QLD 3.7 VIC -.3 NSW 3.8 GDP Popn. Aged AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % p.a. Unemployment Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 This sector continues to grow as per usual, and is expanding at a rate well ahead of the overall average, with jobs up 3.%. Jobs in hospitals continue to grow (.8%). Reflecting the ageing of the population, jobs in the residential care sector are also growing (.5%) although slowing a little. Jobs in Community Services are also growing (.1%) despite the continued economy, highlighting that for some segments of the population conditions are still tough. There are continual shortages of medical staff. In WA, health care professionals are in strong demand due to the robust population growth in that state. Nurses are in short supply, a situation that has existed for years. This sector has a high proportion working part time currently.8% of workers. Nevertheless, part time roles continue to increase, with jobs up 3.8%. ull time jobs are growing at a lower pace, at just over 3%. Jobs are growing in all states other than Victoria, where there has been a slight decline. In SA, positions are growing and this is one of the few growth sectors in that state. In Queensland and NSW, jobs are growing as well. With skills shortages still apparent in some areas and a reasonable level of vacancies, the job outlook in this sector remains solid. By November 13, jobs are expected to be growing at an annual rate of 3.% with a continued shortage of suitable staff and candidates. 6

27 Education Population growth will see this sector continue to rise ACTUAL (eb 13) : 9.6% 1.5% May Aug Nov STATE % p.a. (YE ebruary 13) WA.3 SA 5. QLD.5 VIC 5.8 NSW.5 AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % p.a. Real GDP Popn. Aged Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 The Education sector has shrugged off the weakness in the international student sub-sector to record continued jobs growth, with positions up.6%. A notable surge is in pre-school teacher positions. However, with many preferring to seek primary qualifications, in order to gain higher salaries and more holidays, there is a significant shortage of early childhood teachers. Meanwhile, other sectors are growing as well, with school education jobs up.% and positions in the tertiary education sector up 3.%. One area of weakness is in the TAE sub-sector, where state budget cutbacks are having a dampening influence. Nevertheless, all states are recording jobs growth again, despite Government cutbacks. ull time jobs are growing strongly in this sector, rising 5.% over the year. This is another sector that has a relatively high level of part timers, with 38.3% of the workforce now working part time. Although the international student sub-sector has been weak, it is expected to return to growth as the world economic situation improves. A recent Government report indicates it could grow by 3% by the end of the decade. This would generate $19 billion, making it one of our largest markets. Continued population growth in Australia and the investment in skills and training programs means that the outlook for this sector is one of optimism over the next year, with jobs growth rising to.1% annually by November 13. 7

28 Government Public Sector cuts are taking a toll on this sector ACTUAL (eb 13) : % -.7% May Aug Nov STATE % p.a. (YE ebruary 13) WA -.7 SA 1.9 QLD -.3 VIC -3. NSW -8.8 Non-farm GDP Private Consumption Employment Intentions AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % p.a Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 The much talked about Public Sector staff level reductions are getting some traction, with jobs down 3.8% in the year to ebruary 13. This is a reduction of 8, staff over the course of the year and further cutbacks can be expected, although not at the same rate. Continued economic growth will begin to help all governments balance the books. Despite the spending reductions at the ederal Government level, jobs are growing, but only by.9% annually. The main decrease in job numbers comes via the State Governments, where jobs are down.1%. Meanwhile, Local Government continues to grow, with positions up.%. The cuts in spending are most apparent in NSW, where job numbers have fallen by 8.8%. Not even WA has been immune, with its government enforcing job reductions. In Queensland the announced cuts are impacting and more can be expected. Only SA is recording growth, but this comes after large reductions in the first half of 1. Although more cuts can be expected in the short term, renewed economy will mean a boost in government revenue, reducing the need for further trimming. This should lead to jobs starting to increase again by the end of the year. A key driver will be the overall population growth and the necessity for services that such growth generates. 8

29 inancial Services A return to jobs growth is forecast by the end of the year ACTUAL (eb 13) : -1.% -.8% May Aug Nov STATE % p.a. (YE ebruary 13) WA*. SA* -3. QLD 8.7 VIC -.8 NSW -. * year average shown due to sample size Housing Cap-Ex 1 8 AUS. % p.a. AUS. GROWTH % p.a. Non-residential building Construction inance Confidence Source : ABS / EMDA Model 13 Nov May 3 Nov 3 May Nov 5 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Nov 7 May 8 Nov 8 May 9 Nov 9 May 1 Nov 1 May 11 May 1 Nov 1 May 13 Nov 13 The inancial and Insurance Services sector softened after very strong growth in 11. The reduction in numbers can be attributed to the Big our banks reducing staff. ull time job numbers are flat, while part time positions are falling. In this sector, the proportion of part time workers has remained fairly constant in recent times, at 17%. Despite the fairly soft market overall, there are pockets of activity. There is demand in the financial and wealth management areas, specifically for senior financial planners, multilingual financial planners and financial paraplanners. On the insurance side, there is strong demand for life insurance claims assessors, brokers and account managers. NSW still has the largest inancial Services sector, but with the major employers trimming numbers, jobs fell slightly. Queensland has returned to growth after numbers were reduced in 1. In Victoria, job numbers are still falling, although the rate of decline has slowed considerably. WA, with its rapidly expanding economy, has seen further growth in positions, whereas in SA jobs are down, reflecting the challenging economic environment in that state. Business confidence in this sector has improved considerably since the middle of June 1. Combined with stronger economic growth, this means that the outlook is better for the sector, with jobs rising by.% in the November 13 quarter. 9